Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1 s2.0 S092180091300222X Main
1 s2.0 S092180091300222X Main
Ecological Economics
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon
Analysis
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Received 17 May 2013
Received in revised form 20 June 2013
Accepted 5 July 2013
Available online 29 July 2013
JEL classication:
C43
Q56
a b s t r a c t
Monitoring of the environmental impacts of consumption is necessary for the evaluation of current performance and to support the understanding of how initiatives for change can be implemented. We discuss
design issues and methodology for an Environmentally Sensitive Shopper (ESS) index to measure the environmental sustainability of food consumption at the household level. The ESS index is based on revealed consumer preferences and uses scanner data provided by the largest UK food retailer. As a pilot illustration of the
methodology, we use the index to identify environmentally critical periods during the calendar year.
2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Sustainable consumption
Sustainability index
Revealed preferences
Food
1. Introduction
Behavioural change by households is increasingly anticipated to
make an important contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gases
(GHG) and other emissions (Jackson, 2006; Schor, 2005). As a result,
monitoring of the environmental impacts of consumption at the household level is necessary to evaluate current performance and to support
the understanding of how initiatives for change can be implemented
(OECD, 1999). Among the goods and services that make up household
consumption, food, private transport, and housing are consistently
identied as the most important categories in lifecycle environmental
inventories of household consumption expenditures. Particularly food
is at the core of the discussion of sustainable consumption (see e.g.,
FAO, 2006; WWF, 2009), being responsible for 2030% of the overall environmental emissions from household consumption (Tukker et al.,
2010).
In order to aid in setting priorities for public decision making, further research is needed not only into the magnitude of the environmental impacts of food consumption but also, more importantly,
into how this impact could be reduced. Specically, it is necessary
to analyse how food products are combined in more and less sustainable food patterns and how changes in these food patterns as part of
Corresponding author at: University of Manchester, Economics, Arthur Lewis Building,
Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, UK. Tel.: +44 1613066929.
E-mail address: luca.panzone@manchester.ac.uk (L.A. Panzone).
0921-8009/$ see front matter 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.07.003
See also Southerton et al. (2011) for a discussion of the signicance of analysing
food consumption through behaviours revealed by time-use patterns as opposed to
stated attitudes.
45
X J nh
j1
i
o
Iij Q ij p j envimpact j
46
Need to measure
sustainable consumption
Sustainability
science
Calculate consumption
as expenditure share
for each category
No
Economics
Sustainability
defined relative
to social norm?
Yes
Economics
Sociology
Sustainability as
consuming better
than the social norm
(mode of w)
Sustainability as a
monotonic function
of consumption
Sociology
No
Remove
habits?
Yes
No
Remove
habits?
Normalisation of
expenditures
Aggregation
across categories
Aggregation
across categories
Yes
Normalisation of
expenditures
Aggregation
across categories
Aggregation
across categories
Economics
ESS
ESS (habits
corrected)
ESS (habits
corrected &
social norms)
ESS (social
norms)
subtracting the observed value from unity. Thus, using the superscript c
for a clean and d for a dirty food product category, consumption for
category j at time t for consumer i, Kijt, is given by:
d
K ijt
K ijt wijt
d
1wijt
K ijt N j
K ijt j
hc
K ijt
K ijt min K ijt
:
highest and lowest value observed in a time series for each of the categories, and by construction these values are to be intended as dynamic: the habit correction needs to be adjusted whenever new
minima or maxima are reached.
3. Index Design: Category Aggregation and the ESS Index
In order to provide a single economy-wide overview of sustainable consumption in a given time period (e.g., weeks and months), individual sustainable consumption needs to be aggregated across two
dimensions: consumers and categories. This aggregate measure is the
ESS index. The procedure includes two steps: aggregation across consumers: calculate the average level of consumption across the population for each category j, obtaining C + D time series; and aggregation
across categories: group the result for the C + D categories into a single value. The rst step is straightforward because the aggregation
across consumers is food category specic. Environmental sustainability at the aggregate level for category j at time t simply equals to
the mean for the population of N consumers in the market for a specic category j. If we use Y to denote K or S, this approach leads to the
average
for both clean and dirty options. Thus, the resulting value of Sijt
will be binary (1/0).
This second approach represents a relative concept of sustainability,
where sustainable consumption is intended as consuming better
given present observed practices rather than an absolute measure
based on environmental footprint and biocapacity. This approach is consistent with the ethical implications of sustainable consumption (see
Evans, 2011): environmental improvements in consumption require
both a reduction in quantity consumed and a change of the composition
of the whole food basket, hence category-specic thresholds. Consequently, according to this second approach individual i is considered a
sustainable consumer for category j if her level of consumption, Kijt
(see Eq. (2)) is in line with the social norm of the specic categories, j.
Both approaches above do not allow for an easy comparison across
food categories j because mean and variance of Kijt can differ substantially. This is a particularly important feature of food consumption,
where habits account for different levels of consumption and resistance to change (e.g., Sanne, 2002; Southerton et al., 2004). Thus, a
marginal change in consumption appears negligible for food products
with high levels of consumption (e.g., staple foods), and extremely
high in categories where consumption is low. Consequently, consumption as dened above would underestimate or overestimates
changes when the initial level of consumption is high or low, respectively. To account for habits the procedure outlined above was also
executed after normalising consumption Kijt (see Diaz-Balteiro and
Romero, 2004) to obtain habit-corrected consumption Khc
ijt as
47
N
X
Y jt
Y ijt
i1
C
X
Y jt
j1
D
X
Y jt :
j1
Alternatively, sustainable consumption can be dened as the average across all categories. A rst option is to calculate the arithmetic
mean of sustainable consumption across categories:
C
X
ESSt am
Y jt
D
X
j1
Y jt
j1
C D
lnY jt
X
D
C D
lnY jt
1
C
C:
A
4
4. A Pilot Exercise: The UK Food ESS Index
In Eq. (4), max() and min() indicate the historical minimum and
maximum for category j and the superscript hc stands for habit
corrected. The maximum and the minimum correspond to the
3
More generally, if Eq. (2) denes sustainability as Kijt = f(wijt), Eq. (3) would imply
the more general condition
Sijt 1
if
Sijt 0
if
K ijt N f j
:
K ijt f j
48
Table 1
Summary of food product categories selected to construct the ESS index.
Item
Category
Reference
Exp. share
Meat (1 wjt)
Red meat (1 wjt)
Water (1 wjt)
F&V
Organic F&V
Online shopping
Meat (1 wjt)
Red meat (1 wjt)
Water (1 wjt)
F&V
Organic F&V
Online shopping
Meat
Red meat
Water
F&V
Organic F&V
Online shopping
Meat
Red meat
Water
F&V
Organic F&V
Online shopping
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
% of sustainable households
F&D
meat
F&D
F&D
F&V
F&D
F&D
meat
F&D
F&D
F&V
F&D
F&D
meat
F&D
F&D
F&V
F&D
F&D
meat
F&D
F&D
F&V
F&D
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/aug/16/supermarkets-market-share-kantar.
Before normalisation
After normalisation
Before normalisation
After normalisation
Mean
S.D.
Min
Max
0.8604
0.9078
0.9946
0.1521
0.0048
0.0715
0.6277
0.6026
0.5527
0.6813
0.6426
0.4166
0.5581
0.6778
0.9835
0.0367
0.2847
0.0599
0.5572
0.5162
0.6272
0.7279
0.5827
0.2646
0.0051
0.0035
0.0009
0.0129
0.0008
0.0074
0.1426
0.1332
0.1578
0.1599
0.2099
0.1953
0.0145
0.0105
0.0036
0.0037
0.0358
0.0083
0.1148
0.1946
0.1646
0.1538
0.2124
0.1839
0.8379
0.8918
0.9913
0.1127
0.0032
0.0398
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.4878
0.6501
0.9700
0.0192
0.1864
0.0479
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.8738
0.9184
0.9973
0.1741
0.0070
0.0863
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
0.6139
0.7039
0.9916
0.0433
0.3551
0.0932
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
social norm (see Eq. (3)). For this purpose, the social norm in each
food category j is dened as the mode of observed consumption.
This value is determined empirically from the weekly expenditures
patterns of a representative sub-sample of 100,989 Tesco customers
in the UK in the year 2011. As shown in Fig. 2 the resulting thresholds
for each category are:
a) Total F&V
Unsust
b) Organic
Sustainable
c) Total meat
Sust.
Unsust
Sustainable
d) Red meat
Unsustainable
e) Bottled
Sust.
49
Unsust
Sustainable
f) Online F&D
Unsustainable
Unsust
Sustainable
Fig. 2. Mode of expenditure patterns by food category. Notes: N = 100,989 UK consumers; zeros excluded from analysis. The dashed line indicates the mode of the distribution.
50
5.0
0.9
4.5
0.8
4.0
0.7
3.5
0.6
3.0
0.5
2.5
0.4
2.0
0.3
1.5
0.2
1.0
0.1
0.5
2.8
0.0
01/06/2009 01/10/2009 01/02/2010 01/06/2010 01/10/2010 01/02/2011
0.0
0.5
3.0
0.7
0.5
2.9
0.4
2.8
0.4
2.7
0.3
2.6
0.3
2.5
0.60
3.2
0.50
3.1
0.40
0.30
3.0
0.20
2.9
0.10
0.00
01/06/2009 01/10/2009 01/02/2010 01/06/2010 01/10/2010 01/02/2011
ESS (am)
ESS (gm)
ESS
ESS-hc (am)
ESS-hc (gm)
ESS-hc
4.5
4.0
0.6
3.5
0.5
3.0
0.4
2.5
2.0
0.2
2.4
0.3
0.2
2.3
0.2
0.1
2.2
0.1
2.1
0.1
0.5
0.0
01/06/2009 01/10/2009 01/02/2010 01/06/2010 01/10/2010 01/02/2011
2.0
0.0
01/06/2009 01/10/2009 01/02/2010 01/06/2010 01/10/2010 01/02/2011
0.0
ESS(sn) (am)
ESS(sn) (gm)
1.5
1.0
ESS(sn)
ESS(sn) -hc
Fig. 3. Graphic comparison of different versions of the ESS index (weekly data). Note: in each graph, the y-axis on the right hand side refers to the sum version of the specic ESS
indexes. Abbreviations are as follows: ESS-hc = ESS with habits correction; ESS(sn) = ESS based on social norms; ESS(sn)-hc = ESS based on social norms with habits correction.
The abbreviations (am) and (gm) indicate an aggregation by arithmetic mean or geometric mean.
novelty is that the ESS index needs formal validation. The essence
of a validation test for the ESS index is to provide an assessment
of its ability to measure sustainable consumption. This process includes: design validation to evaluate if the index is scientically
founded; and output validation to assess the soundness of the
index results. This section also establishes to what extent the aggregation strategy matters, verifying whether the three versions
of the index are substitutes.
converted into CO2 eq.6 Results in Table 3 detect a signicantly negative correlation between total emissions and the ESS index (as
depicted in Fig. 4), where the high level of emissions associated to
meat consumption corresponds to an important contribution. Emissions from water and F&V correlate positively to the index. Finally,
the percentage of customers reusing plastic bags and shopping online correlate positively with the ESS; whilst average online food expenditures and total UK food sales7 correlate negatively. Apart from
water, all coefcients have the expected sign.
5.1. Validity
The literature on index design distinguishes three types of validity:
criterion validity, content validity and construct validity (see Kaplan et
al., 1976). This section denes these three components and presents a
detailed analysis to verify and support the validity of the ESS in its different versions as an indicator for sustainable consumption.
5.1.1. Criterion Validity
Criterion validity refers to the ability of the index to accurately
represent the phenomenon it describes by comparing well to an
existing reliable measure. Due to the absence of a measure of sustainable food consumption (particularly at weekly level), either direct or
through another index, such a comparison is not straightforward. To
enable this task, the ESS is compared against an estimate of the
GHG emissions associated with the items it contains: expenditures
in each class (meat, F&V, bottled water and online shopping) are
multiplied by the estimated weight per GBP of sales5 and then by
their LCA estimates derived using CCaLC (CCaLC, 2012) (Table 2).
These values in CCaLC include all greenhouse gases, which are then
Conversion rates were obtained from DEFRA's family survey as: Meat = 0.17 kg/;
F&V = 0.51 kg/; Water = 2.48 kg/; Total F&D: 0.33 kg/. See http://www.defra.
gov.uk/statistics/foodfarm/food/familyfood/datasets/.
kg CO2/kg items
Source:
9.46
0.31
0.09
0.16
CCaLC (2012)
CCaLC (2012)
Ecoinvent (2010)
CCaLC (2012)
a
The estimated carbon foot print for online food shopping is calculated as follows. Total
CO2 for transport is calculated knowing the average transport distance from retailer to
household (7.81 km, see Berlin and Sund, 2010, page 23) multiplied by carbon footprint
per km of an average petrol car (0.237 kg/km) (Ecoinvent database, 2010). The resulting
value has been doubled to account for a return journey, and assumes 59% of consumers shopping without a car (see Berlin and Sund, 2010, page 23). The total amount of food purchased
corresponds to 10.03 kg of food per person per week (2010 estimates from DEFRA's Family
and living costs survey, see http://www.defra.gov.uk/statistics/foodfarm/food/familyfood/
datasets/), which has been multiplied by 2.4 (average household size, see http://
www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/family-demography/families-and-households/2011/stb-familieshouseholds.html#tab-Household-size). The nal value corresponds to the ratio of these two
estimates.
51
number of components, 2X is the variance of the observed total test scores, whilst
2Y i is the variance of ith component.
13
The testretest repeatability is based on testing the signicance of the correlation
between different items that are meant to measure the same underlying construct.
The tests indicated a signicant and positive Pearson correlation between the twelve
different versions of the test. Results are available upon request.
52
Table 3
Correlation between ESS index and other indicators of sustainable consumption.
% Consumers
ESS
ESS (gm)
ESS(sn)
ESS(sn) (gm)
ESS/hc
ESS/hc (gm)
ESS(sn)/hc
ESS(sn)/hc (gm)
Sales
CO2
Reusing bags
Shopping online
Total food
Online food
Total
Meat
F&V
Bottled water
0.2584***
0.4688***
0.1836*
0.4788***
0.3453***
0.2728***
0.1492
0.2497**
0.4540***
0.3150***
0.1709*
0.2816***
0.2752***
0.3343***
0.6052***
0.3235***
0.4288***
0.7124***
0.4813***
0.6149***
0.2602***
0.5289***
0.3493***
0.4037***
0.2301**
0.5452***
0.2062**
0.4939***
0.0938
0.4755***
0.2728***
0.3723***
0.4643***
0.5804***
0.3971***
0.5384***
0.4856***
0.6675***
0.4319***
0.5462***
0.5240**
0.6319***
0.4642***
0.5933*
0.5281*
0.6858***
0.4651***
0.5653***
0.4493***
0.3015***
0.5955***
0.3335***
0.3288***
0.0311
0.2069**
0.0030
0.5413***
0.5689***
0.6325***
0.6282***
0.3116***
0.1805*
0.1955**
0.2130**
*, **, ***: signicance at 10%-, 5%-, or 1%-level respectively (2-tailed). Versions based on arithmetic averages are removed from the table because their coefcients are identical to
their summation counterparts. Abbreviations are as follows: ESS-hc = ESS with habits correction; ESS(sn) = ESS based on social norms; ESS(sn)-hc = ESS based on social norms
with habits correction.
b) ESS-hc
a) ESS
3.05
4.50
4.00
3.00
3.50
3.00
2.95
2.50
2.90
2.00
8
10
11
12
13
14
c) ESS(sn)
10
11
12
13
14
10
11
12
13
14
d) ESS(sn)-hc
2.70
4.00
2.65
3.50
2.60
3.00
2.55
2.50
2.50
2.45
2.00
8
10
11
12
13
14
Fig. 4. Scatter graph representation of the correlation between ESS index and its estimated CO2 eq, sum version only (weekly data). Note: In each graph, the y-axis shows the value
associated to the ESS index in its different versions, whilst the x-axis represents the carbon footprint measured in CO2 eq/kg food.
was implemented for six classes of products that academic researchers and UK policymakers consider as having important implications for the environmental sustainability of food consumption on the
basis of existing research. However, future research may disprove
current knowledge on what is sustainable and what is not; determine
unequivocally the long-term impact of controversial food categories;
or current policies on sustainable food consumption may be successful and lead to scenarios with different priorities. Undoubtedly, sustainability accounts for a broader range of food products than the
six categories considered here. Nevertheless, the ESS index aims at revealing whether UK food consumption is making progress in relative
rather than absolute terms, measuring sustainability of revealed behaviour using published advice on sustainable consumption.
A limitation of the ESS index in the form presented in this article is
the exclusion of end-use behaviour, particularly cooking and food
waste, because this information is not available in scanner data. A
more complete consumption perspective that also incorporates use
can be found in Druckman and Jackson (2009, 2010) who include for instance emissions from cooking, dishwashing, and travel to shops (in our
exercise featuring as online food shopping). It follows that the index implicitly assumes constant end-use emissions per unit of sales across category in the time period in analysis, an assumption that needs further
research. Nevertheless, we feel that the main contribution of the ESS
framework lies with its exibility: the design of the index allows the inclusion of any food category considered appropriate, along the same
lines as the dynamic basket used for the Consumer Price Index (see
Schultze, 2003). This generalisation could also include end use emissions (e.g., from cooking and waste) that can be added, when available.
6.2. The Role of Habitual Food Consumption
The correction for habitual consumption allows for a better representation of food consumption behaviour because consumers are likely to consider changes in behaviour that stay within the reach of their
53
Table 4
Pearson correlation between the ESS index and its component food product categories (original variable).
a) Sustainable consumption based on expenditure shares
Initial variable
ESS
ESS (gm)
ESS-hc (n)
ESS-hc (gm) (n)
Total F&D exp
Total meat exp
Red meat exp
Total F&V exp
Organic F&V exp
Total water exp
Online F&D exp
1 Total meat
1 Red meat
1 Bottled water
Total F&V
Organic F&V
Online F&D
0.1582
0.1733*
0.4631***
0.0802
0.3284***
0.1477
0.1123
0.0208
0.1904*
0.0626
0.0620
0.3702***
0.0947
0.5691***
0.1676*
0.3490***
0.0674
0.1627*
0.1775*
0.0809
0.1150
0.1450
0.6228***
0.7307***
0.3868***
0.3559***
0.4821***
0.4805***
0.4999***
0.3709***
0.5548***
0.9481***
0.1875*
0.7678***
0.8573***
0.5450***
0.4818***
0.5143***
0.3975***
0.4763***
0.6237***
0.5812***
0.6288***
0.2045**
0.5207***
0.8168***
0.5935***
0.4669***
0.5075***
0.5498***
0.4987***
0.2870***
0.9101***
0.5304***
0.4753***
0.5007***
0.4148***
0.2984***
0.3662***
0.3978***
0.2782***
0.3691***
0.1947**
0.3302***
0.0101
0.7831***
ESS(sn)
ESS(sn) (gm)
ESS(sn)-hc
ESS(sn)-hc (n)
Total F&D exp
Total meat exp
Red meat exp
Total F&V exp
Organic F&V exp
Total water exp
Online F&D exp
Total meat
Red meat
Bottled water
Total F&V
Organic F&V
Online F&D
0.0103
0.2116**
0.0101
0.0046
0.4476***
0.0067
0.0363
0.0389
0.0806
0.1177
0.0064
0.3615***
0.1991**
0.6687***
0.4020***
0.2394**
0.1750*
0.3799***
0.0198
0.3440***
0.0604
0.5126***
0.6726***
0.6925***
0.2388**
0.3030***
0.3669***
0.4022***
0.4129***
0.4007***
0.5782***
0.9636***
0.2042**
0.8900***
0.8125***
0.5255***
0.3725***
0.4524***
0.3567***
0.4291***
0.6684***
0.6099***
0.6956***
0.1929**
0.4418***
0.6512***
0.2082**
0.3205***
0.3171***
0.4425***
0.3445***
0.1203
0.8865***
0.4051***
0.5359***
0.1747*
0.3609***
0.6035***
0.2537***
0.3406***
0.2045**
0.2794***
0.1837*
0.2930***
0.0235
0.8142***
*, **, ***: signicance at 10%-, 5%-, or 1%-level respectively (2-tailed). Versions based on arithmetic averages are removed from the table because their coefcients are identical to
their summation counterparts.
Note: for total meat, red meat, and bottled water expenditure shares refer to (1 wjt), to capture sustainable consumption within the category. Abbreviations are as follows:
ESS-hc = ESS with habits correction; ESS(sn) = ESS based on social norms; ESS(sn)-hc = ESS based on social norms with habits correction.
social reference group: they would tend to consume below the maximum or above the minimum determined as optimal by other members of their social class (Darmon and Drewnowski, 2008; Rpke,
2009; Safarzyska, 2013). As a result, consumer response to a policy
intervention or any exogenous consumption shifter would tend to be
restricted in the short-run. In the medium- to long-run, policy could
address social shifts and changes in social norms to lower the reference level of consumption. Interestingly, Fig. 3 suggests that assumptions on the relation between consumption and sustainability matter
less than the correction for habitual consumption: changing from a
Table 5
Independent samples KruskalWallis test by season and expenditure quartiles.
Season
F&D
expenditures
Meat
expenditures
F&V
expenditures
Main trend
Downward-facing
parabola
Decreasing
Decreasing
Increasing
ESS
ESS (gm)
ESS-hc (n)
ESS-hc
(n) (gm)
ESS(sn)
ESS(sn)
(gm)
ESS(sn)-hc
ESS(sn)-hc
(gm)
34.264***
39.408***
27.922***
33.090***
10.315**
14.489***
5.244
13.489***
16.189***
19.933***
18.103***
24.703***
40.828***
29.352***
17.372***
8.452**
51.421***
42.594***
10.450**
9.718**
13.819***
16.657***
48.311***
28.442***
33.655***
50.507***
8.691**
10.191**
9.690**
17.232***
19.880***
6.311*
*, **, ***: signicance at 10%-, 5%-, or 1%-level respectively (2-tailed). Versions based on
arithmetic averages are removed from the table because their coefcients are identical
to their summation counterparts. Abbreviations are as follows: ESS-hc = ESS with
habits correction; ESS(sn) = ESS based on social norms; ESS(sn)-hc = ESS based on
social norms with habits correction.
linear to a binary function does not seem to change the graphical representation of the trend, whilst the adjustment for habitual consumption gives substantially different uctuations.
6.3. Comparison of Different Versions of the ESS Index
Tests of reliability indicated that all versions of the index measure
the same underlying construct, which the validity test indicates is
sustainable consumption. Whilst representing the underlying concept, the different versions of the index do not provide an identical
measure of sustainable consumption (as expected by construction).
Consequently, attention should be given to three sets of assumptions:
1) the relation between consumption and sustainability; 2) the correction for habitual consumption; and 3) the aggregation procedure.
As mentioned above, Fig. 3 suggests that assumptions on the function
that transforms consumption into sustainability impose less structure
than those on habitual consumption. In addition, the results
presented in the previous section give some indications of the performance of each aggregating procedure: the ESS from summation and
average mean give identical series (they differ by a multiplicative factor) and are the simplest to interpret, whilst the geometric mean appears weaker because it excludes zero values (an issue when data are
normalised). Further research should consider the implications of
these differences because no version at this point can be determined
as superior in terms of validity or reliability in performance.
6.4. The Data
Whereas it is a very important source of information, the use of
scanner data recorded by a single retailer has some limitations. Not
all UK citizens shop at Tesco, and thus the sample in consideration
might not be entirely representative of the total population. Firstly,
54
55