Anticipation and recognition

for resilience
PER BECKER

Content
Anticipation
The essence of anticipation
Risk Assessment
Forecasting
Relations and limits
Recognition
The essence of recognition
Monitoring (proactive)
Assessing (reactive)
Relations and limits

Anticipation
Human-environment
systems involve human
beings with the ability
to anticipate events
before they happen

Anticipation
Explicit / Implicit
Formal / Informal
Experiential / Analytical

Anticipation
Explicit / Implicit
Formal / Informal
Experiential / Analytical

Essence of managing risk

- Different language, same thing
1. Analyzing the current
problem constellation(s)

1. Analyze the current

situation

2. Creating and crafting

sustainability visions

2. Define our preferred

expected scenario

3. Exploring less desirable

future scenarios that might
become reality without
interventions toward
sustainability

3. Analyze potential deviations

from our preferred expected
scenario (risk scenarios)
4. Design and implement sets
of activities that maintain
our development trajectory
along the preferred
expected scenario

4. Developing and testing

strategies to transition from
the current state to
sustainable states without
getting deflected toward
undesirable pathways (Wiek et al. 2011)

(Becker 2014)

What is a scenario?
An account or synopsis of a possible course of events that could
occur, which forms the basis for planning assumptions (for
example, a river floods, covering a nearby town and wiping out
the local populations crop)
Inter Agency Standing Committee (IASC)

Preferred expected scenario (S0)

Risk scenarios (S1-i)

What makes a good scenario?

Components of a scenario
Assumptions Cause (define system, S0, etc.)
Impact Effect (Geographical, temporal, reversibility, who?, what needs? etc.)
Timing
Triggers and indicators
Likelihood
Uncertainty

Scenarios
S0 = success scenario (preferred expected development)

Scenarios
IE = Initiating event; ES = End State

Time scales
Short term / long term
Quick / slow

Risk evaluation
Risk analysis

Risk assessment

A general framework for risk

assessment
Risk evaluation

Should the risk be accepted and what

options are there?

Risk presentation

How can we present risk in a

comprehendible way?

Likelihood and consequences

How likely is it?

What are the consequences?

Risk scenarios

Focus area
Valuable and important to protect

What can happen?

What are the characteristics of the focus

area?

What is valuable and

important to protect?

Risk Assessment
Three main ways to identify
risk scenarios

1.

Establish potential
initiating events
(IE) and draw
possible scenarios
Forward looking

Example: Event
trees

Risk Assessment
Three main ways to identify
risk scenarios

2.

Establish
interesting End
States (ES) and
examine how the
system may end
up there
Backward looking

Example: Fault
trees

Risk Assessment
Three main ways to identify
risk scenarios

3.

Define interesting
Mid States (MS)
and examine how
the system may
end up there, as
well as potential
scenarios from
there
Both Forward
and Backward
looking

Forecasting
Relation/difference to Risk Assessment?
a conjectural estimate or account,
based on present indications, of the
course of events or state of things in
the future (OED)

Input to other functions

Input to other functions

Group work
Define a context (e.g. A Swedish municipality, a
community on Haiti or in Louisiana)
Choose a potential destructive event (risk scenario)
Identify at least one activity for that event, focusing on
Recognition
Adaptation (proactive: prevention, mitigation or
preparedness)
Learning

What kind of information would be of interest to

inform these activities?

Limits of anticipation
What limits?

How does that impact management strategies?

Recognition
Proactive
Reactive

Cognitive base for Recognition

Individual

Society

Perception:

Sight
Hearing
Taste
Smell
Touch

Data aquisition

Reflection &
Conceptualisation:

Brain

Sense-making

Recognition
Monitoring (proactive)
Assessing (reactive)

Key aspects
- monitoring
What we know now about
monitoring in general:
Monitoring is proactive
Monitoring focuses on specific
variables
Monitoring requires predefined
critical limits
Monitoring is useless if not
sufficiently integrated with other
functions

Key aspects
- monitoring
What other functions for resilience is the output of
monitoring directly important for?
What other functions for resilience generate output that is
directly necessary for monitoring?

Key aspects
- monitoring
What should the output from monitoring look like to
facilitate the dependent functions?
Clear
Unambiguous
Operational

Key aspects
- assessing
What we know now about
assessments in general:
Assessment is a process, not a
one-off event
Assessments must be linked to
decision-making
One size does not fit all
Assessment is not the same as
survey
Preparedness facilitates better
assessment

(ACAPS 2012)

Key aspects
- assessing
What we know now about
assessments:
Activate assessment mechanisms
as soon as possible
Coordinated assessments can be
harmonised or joint
Assessment requires dedicated
resources
Assessment should include all
relevant actors
Important to generate buy-in and
manage expectations

(ACAPS 2012)

Key aspects
- assessing
What we know about the data
used in assessments:
Over-focus on primary data
Representative surveys seldom
possible
Focus on good-enough data, not
perfection
Focus on the human dimension
Use new technology appropriately

(ACAPS 2012)

Key aspects
- assessing
What we know about the
importance of analysis in
assessments:
Analysis is iterative and should
start immediately
Analysis should consider how a
disasters impact may change
over time
Analysis should identify
information gaps
Analysis should consider existing
capacity
Analysis builds on comparison
and convergence of evidence

(ACAPS 2012)

Key aspects
- assessing
What we know now about
disseminating the findings of
assessments:
Shared findings is creating shared
situation awareness
Shared findings should be
appropriate to different audiences
Be transparent on methods,
terminology and assumptions
used

(ACAPS 2012)

Key aspects
- assessing
What other functions for resilience is the output of
assessment directly important for?
What other functions for resilience generate output that is
directly necessary for assessment?

Key aspects
- assessing
What should the output from assessment look like to
facilitate the dependent functions?
Clear
Unambiguous
Operational

In practice
- monitoring
Weather

River flow

In practice
- monitoring
Seismic activity

Slope stability

In practice
- monitoring
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CHOLERA AND OTHER VIBRIO ILLNESS

SURVEILLANCE REPORT
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I. DEMOGRAPHIC AND ISOLATE INFORMATION

REPORTING HEALTH DEPARTMENT

1. First three letters of State:

patients last name:
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2. Date of birth:
Mo.

Day

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3. Age:
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F (2)
Unk. (9)

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Unk. (9)
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6. Race:
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Asian (4)

Black or African
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White (1)
Unk. (9)

7. Occupation:

8. Vibrio species isolated (check one or more):

Species

Date specimen collected

Source of specimen(s) collected from patient (If more than one specify earliest date) If wound or other, specify site :
Mo.
Day
Yr.
Stool
Blood Wound Other

V. alginolyticus
V. cholerae O1
V. cholerae O139
V. cholerae non -O1, non -O139
V. cincinnatiensis
Photobacterium damselae subsp.damselae
(formerly V. damsela)

V. fluvialis
V. furnissii
Grimontia hollisae
(formerly V. hollisae)

V. metschnikovii
V. mimicus
V. parahaemolyticus
V. vulnificus
Vibrio species -not identified
Other (specify):

Pest

9. Were other organisms isolated from the same

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No (2)

10. Was the identification of the

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fluvialis) confirmed at the State
Public Health Laboratory?

Unk. (9)

Other (specify):

Yes (1)

No (2)

Unk. (9)

11. Complete the following information if the isolate is Vibrio cholerae O1 or O139:
Serotype (check one)
Inaba (1)
Not Done (4)
Ogawa (2)
Unk. (9)
Hikojima (3)

Biotype (check one)

El Tor (1)
Not Done (3)
Classical (2)
Unk. (9)

Toxigenic? (check one)

Yes (1)

No (2)

Unk. (9)

If YES, toxin positive by: (check all, that apply)

ELISA
Latex agglutination
Other (specify):

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CDC 52.79 (E), Revised August 2007 (Page 1 of 4) (CDC Adobe Acrobat 10.1, S508 Electronic Version, November 2012)

In practice
- monitoring
Traffic

Air pollution

In practice
- monitoring
Violent crime

Terrorism

In practice
- monitoring
Climate
Ozone layer
Biodiversity
Land use
Food
Education
Etc

In practice
- assessing
Scale
From massive earthquake to local power outage
Detail
From rapid impact assessment to full Post-Disaster
Needs Assessment (PDNA)

Summary
Anticipation
is a fundamental function for resilience
can be explicit or implicit, formal or informal, and
based on experiential or analytical input
explicit, formal and analytical anticipation includes risk
assessment and forecasting
is dependent on as well as necessary for other
functions

Summary
Recognition
is a fundamental function for resilience
entails data acquisition and sense-making
can be proactive (monitoring) or reactive (assessing)
is dependent on as well as necessary for other
functions