Maintenance Engineering & Asset Management

Module M13
RELIABILITY, MAINAINABILITY & RISK

MAJOR ASSIGNMENT

Name: Hernn Quiroz

Company: Ternium Siderar

The completed assignment must be received at the Programme Office by

23.59 on
Friday 14th January 2011

Late assignments will be penalised.

Abstract
Application of Weibull technique to the bottle neck of Ternium Siderar
This study is about the Weibull analysis technique which characterizes the
reliability problem and determines the cause root of each failure mode for the
Torch Cutting Machine. This equipment represents the main availability problem
of the Continuous Casting Machine (CCM), the Ternium Siderars bottle neck.
At the beginning of this report a briefly description of Ternium Siderar process is
introduced. After this the CMMS records are analysed and the CCM main
availability equipment, component and failure mode are detected. Then the
Weibull analysis is applied, the cause reason are identify and possible solutions
are presented. In addition to this, its financial benefits are evaluated.
Finally there hand graphical result are contrasted against the ReliaSoft Weibull
++7 Software. Similar answers are achieved for both alternatives.

INDEX
I.

RELIABILITY INVESTIGATION......................................................................................................3
A.
1.

INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................3
Ternium Siderar Steel Process .......................................................................................................3
a)

2.
a)

3.
a)

3.
4.

2.

Table 4: Torch-Nozzle - Cumulative Weibull Hazard Method ...................................................................10

Plot 1: Torch-Nozzle - Cumulative Hazard Weibull Plot, data of Table 4..................................................11

Analysis of competing modes of failures .......................................................................................12

a)
b)
c)
d)
e)

1.

Figure 6: Torch........................................................................................................................................ 8
Figure 7: Nozzle....................................................................................................................................... 8
Table 3: Analysis of Incomplete Sample of Toch-Nozzle Times to Failure .................................................. 9

WEIBULL ANALYSIS ..........................................................................................................................10

The Cumulative Hazard Method...................................................................................................10
a)
b)

D.

Table 2: Last Year Torch Cutting Machine Failures.................................................................................. 7

Figure 5: Pareto Analysis - Torch Cutting Machine .................................................................................. 8

Torch.............................................................................................................................................8
a)
b)
c)

1.

Figure 4: Torch Cutting Machine ............................................................................................................. 6

User requirements.................................................................................................................................... 6

Unavailability do to components failures........................................................................................7

a)
b)

C.

Figure 3: ABC Pareto Failures CCM, Source: Ternium Siderar Maintenance Site .................................. 5

Torch Cutting Machine ..................................................................................................................6

a)
b)

Mounting Failure Mode ..........................................................................................................................12

Table 5: Torch-Nozzle-Cumulative Weibull Hazard Method, Mounting Failure ........................................12
Slag Failure Mode ..................................................................................................................................13
Table 5: Torch-Nozzle-Cumulative Weibull Hazard Method, Slag Failure................................................13
Plot 2: Cumulative Hazard Weibull Plot, competing mode of failure.........................................................13

ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS ....................................................................................................14

Mounting Failure Mode Possible Solution.................................................................................14
a)
b)

2.

Estimating cost and benefit: ....................................................................................................................15

Estimating cost and benefit: ....................................................................................................................15

Slag Failure Mode - Possible Solution..........................................................................................15

a)

Estimating cost and benefit: ....................................................................................................................16

CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................................16
CONTRASTING THE RESULT WITH WEIBULL SOFTWARE .......................................................................16
1.
Input data ....................................................................................................................................17
2.
Software Answer - Weibull ++7 ...................................................................................................17
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)

G.

Figure 2: Manufacturing Process (CCM).................................................................................................. 5

UNAVAILABILITY ANALYSIS................................................................................................................5
2.

E.
F.

Table 1: Daily Capacity ........................................................................................................................... 4

Continuous Casting (CCM)............................................................................................................4

a)

B.

Figure 1: Ternium Siderar Steel Process................................................................................................... 3

Ternium Siderar Bottle Neck-Context .............................................................................................3

Weibull Probability: F(t).........................................................................................................................18

Reliability vs Time [ R(t)=1-F(t) ]...........................................................................................................19
Probability of failure befote time t, [ F(t)=1-R(t) ]....................................................................................19
Probability Density Function (Pdf), [ f(t) ]..............................................................................................20
The Hazard Rate, [ Z(t) = f(t) / R(t) ].......................................................................................................20
Failure Suspension Graph ....................................................................................................................21
Failure Suspension Chronogram...........................................................................................................21

REFERENCES .....................................................................................................................................27

I.

Reliability Investigation

A.

Introduction

Ternium is a manufacturer of flat and long steel product. Ternium consolidates

the operations of the steel companies in Argentina, Mexico, Guatemala and
United States. It is one of the leading steel companies in Latin American with an
annual finished steel production of 9 million tons i.
Ternium Siderar is the most important Argentinean Steel Factory. It produces
2,8 million tons a year. It manufactures slabs, hot rolled, cold rolled, hot dip
galvanized, prepainted and tinplate steel sheet products. It has 9 production
centres throughout the Argentina.

1. Ternium Siderar Steel Process

Ternium Siderar is an integrated steel factory. The figure 1 shows the basic
scheme of Ternium Siderar Steel Process.

a)

Figure 1: Ternium Siderar Steel Process

2. Ternium Siderar Bottle Neck-Context

Actually, the Continuous Casting Machine (CCM) is the Ternium Siderar bottle
neck. The following chart shows the capacity of the primaries areas:

a)

Plant

Dealy Capacity
[Ton]

Minimum Dealy
Capacity [Ton]

Blust Furnace

10500

7900

Continuous
Casting

8000

Hot Street Mill

9000

Table 1: Daily Capacity

Today, the Blast Furnace N1 and 2 are working at their minimum technical
capacity. They couldnt produce less pick iron than 7900 Ton/day, otherwise
they become unsteady (permeability- thermal -chemical process problems).
What is more, the Hot Street Mill has an average capacity1 of 9000 Ton/day.
Nowadays, the Hot Street Mill has 96 free hours a month. These hours have not
been program because there are no available slabs to feed it up.
Furthermore the company cant import slabs from another company since there
is no profit margin. (The market cost and sells price make it not possible to
import slabs in order to transform into coils.)
In addition to this, the Argentinean market is demanding more downstream
products that do not have been produced because of the slabs limitation.
To conclude, the actual scenario generate the CCM bottle neck with excess of
pick iron (it is stocking as a solid pick iron) and free hours in the Hot Street Mill.
Every slab that is not produced at Siderar must be import as a final product
from other companies. In this cases Siderar act as a trader. To sum up, it is
crucial to improve the CCM availability (downtime and low speed failures)

3. Continuous Casting (CCM)

The Continuous Casting is the production facility where the liquid steel is
transform into slabs. It has 2 strands, with the following characteristics:
-

Production Output: 2.800.000 Tons/year

Slab Thickness=200 mm

Slab Width=730 mm to 1650 mm

Slab length= 4500 mm to 12000 mm

Maximum Speed: 1.97 m/min

Its depends of the production mix (chemical composition, thickness and width). The same considerations
apply for the CCM.

In the Figure 2 are decrypted the main CCM equipments.

Ladle

Tundish

a)

B.

Mould

Segments

Torch Cutting

Figure 2: Manufacturing Process (CCM)

Unavailability Analysis

This analysis only takes into account the unavailability due to equipment
failures.
Considering the CMMS records2, as we can see in the Figure 3, the Torch
Cutting is the main availability problem for the Continuous Casting Machine.
(For the last two years)

ABC Pareto Failures - Continuous Casting Machine

Torch Cutting

Hours

Hydraulic
Marking
Tundish
Mold

ABC Pareto Failures - Continuous Casting Machine

Torch Cutting
Low Speed

a)

Downtime

Figure 3: ABC Pareto Failures CCM, Source: Ternium Siderar Maintenance Site

Ternium Siderar has selected SAP system as a CMMS. What is more, we have an Intranet Site that consolidate
this information

It is important to highlight that the Torch Cutting Machine have not produced
downtime (unless in the last years). But if we also considerer the speed
reduction, the Torch Cutting becomes the main availability problem.

2. Torch Cutting Machine

The Torch Cutting Machine subdivides the cast strand into pre-selected lengths,
is able to separate either cold or hot strand, and cuts sample and residual
pieces.

a) Figure 4: Torch Cutting Machine

The Torch Cutting Machine travels on rails parallel to the strand. The heavy
duty cutting torches are each fitted to a mobile torch carriage which travels
across the strand. The synchronous run with the cast strand is achieved during
the division when the torch beam is placed on the strand. By means of the
measuring equipment, pre-selected piece lengths can be separated from the
strandii .
i iv

Torch cutting is a thermal separation process. The material brought to ignition

temperature must be flammable in the cutting oxygen jet. The combustion
must be exothermic. As soon as the burning starts, enough heat must be
produced so that the material lying in the cutting path is brought to ignition
temperature. The process is now running autogenously. The slag has to be fluid
enough to be ejected by cutting oxygen jet

iii
v

The media used for autogenous equipment are heating gas and oxygen, each
extremely hazardous when handled inappropriately.
b) User requirements

Cut the strand of 200 mm of thickness and 1650 mm of width, at a casting speed

which goes from 0,8 m/min up to 2 m/min, at a pre-selected speed piece length +/- 30
mm, in a maximum time of 2 minutes and 30 seconds, with a certain quality (see cut
quality chart, figure 1, appendix 1).
-

Cut sample pieces (Sulphur Print)

Daily production window of 8 minutes (during the Flight Tundish changing)

Pre-according schedule shutdown of 16 hours each 4 weeks.

As the Continuous Casting Machine is the bottle neck of the company, there is no

overhaul routine for the last 4 years.

3. Unavailability do to components failures

Analyzing the CMMS records for the last year, the Torch Cutting Machine
Components Failures result:
Number of Failures (one year)
Torch Cutting Machine
Components
Electric

of failures

Operating MTTF (h) = rate of

Hours

failure

33

Actuator

8352

1.044

9,6E-04

Wire/Connections

8352

4.176

2,4E-04

Drive

8352

2.784

3,6E-04

Clutch

8352

4.176

2,4E-04

Motors Control Center

8352

8.352

1,2E-04

Motor CA

8352

1.392

7,2E-04

10

8352

835

1,2E-03

8352

8.352

1,2E-04

Sensor
Software
Mechanical

a)

Number

50

Torch

22

8352

380

2,6E-03

Holes and Conexions

12

8352

696

1,4E-03

Filter

8352

1.670

6,0E-04

Brake

8352

8.352

1,2E-04

Guide

8352

4.176

2,4E-04

Transmision

8352

1.670

6,0E-04

Valves

8352

2.784

3,6E-04

Table 2: Last Year Torch Cutting Machine Failures

For the torch cutting machine all the elements are related by OR gates in
the fault tree function Cutting the Slab. Every component that fail, makes
the Cutting the Slab function failed. For the Torch element there is no
redundancy component in the original design. The fault three is not
represented since I consider that is no necessary because it has all OR
gates.

Pareto Analysis - Torch Cutting Machine

Rate of Failure = 1/MTTF

3,0E-03
2,5E-03
2,0E-03
1,5E-03
1,0E-03
5,0E-04

H
ol
es

an
d

To
on r ch
ex
io
n
Se s
ns
o
A
ct r
ua
to
M
r
ot
or
C
A
Fi
Tr
a n lte
sm r
isi
on
Dr
W
ive
ire
V
/C
a
on lve
ne
s
ct
io
ns
M
C
ot
l
ut
or
ch
s
C
on Gu
tro
id
lC e
en
So ter
ftw
ar
e
Br
ak
e

0,0E+00

Components

b)

Figure 5: Pareto Analysis - Torch Cutting Machine

As a conclusion, the main Rate of Failure is the Torch, = 0,0026.

4. Torch
The torch is a heavy duty, water cooled, component that feed gas and oxygen.
The torch finishes in the nozzle which is the element that mixes the gases in
order to create a large heating effect.

a) Figure 6: Torch

b) Figure 7: Nozzle

For process and quality requirements, the nozzle must be replaced twice a week
during the production windows. This work is performed by fix daily shift. For

practical reason, this preventive task is programme for every Tuesday (4 nozzles
work for 48 hours) and Thursday (4 nozzles work for 120 hours). For this reason
we can see in the Table N3 that four nozzles are suspended at 48 hours and 4
nozzles are suspended at 120 hours.
T1L
T1R
T2L
T2R
T1L
T1R
T2L
Week TTF
Week TTF
TTF
TTF
TTF
TTF
TTF
(h) f / s (h) f / s (h) f /s (h) f /s
(h) f /s (h) f /s (h) f /s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
1
27
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
2
28
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
3
29
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
4
30
103 f
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
5
31
100 f
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
6
32
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
12 f
12 f
12 f
7
33
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
8
34
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
9
35
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
10
36
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
11
37
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
12
38
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
13
39
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
34 f
34 f
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
14
40
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
15
41
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
16
42
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
83 f
83 f
83 f
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
17
43
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
0,5 f
120 s
103 f
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
25 f
25 f
25 f
18
44
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
1 f
1 f
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
19
45
120 s
27 f
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
20
46
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
21
47
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
22
48
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
23
49
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
24
50
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
25
51
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
26
52
120 s
120 s
120 s
120 s
48 s
48 s
48 s
120 s
120 s
120 s

T2R
|
48
120
48
120
48
120
48
120
48
120
48
120
12
120
48
120
48
120
48
120
48
120
48
120
48
120
48
120
48
120
48
83
48
120
25

f /s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
f
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
f
s
s
f

120
47
120
48
120
48
120
48
120
48
120
48
120
48
120
48
120

s
f
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s

c) Table 3: Analysis of Incomplete Sample of Toch-Nozzle Times to Failure

During the last year 418 Nozzles had been changed. N=418

C.

Weibull Analysis
1. The Cumulative Hazard Method

Analysing the Torch-Nozzle case, a good number of times-to-failure have been

recorded and there are many suspended items. In this scenario, The
Cumulative Hazard Method is the best alternative in order to perform the
Weibull Analysisx.
Elements
Reverse
suspended TTF
f/s
Rank
with same (h)
n
TTF

199

197

a)

Observed
Hazard
(1/n)

Cumulative
CDF
hazard
F(t)=1-e{-H(t)}
H(t)

F(t)
%

0,5

418

0,00239

0,0024

0,0024

0,24%

417

0,00240

0,0048

0,0048

0,48%

416

0,00240

0,0072

0,0072

0,71%

12

415

0,00241

0,0096

0,0095

0,95%

12

414

0,00242

0,0120

0,0119

1,19%

12

413

0,00242

0,0144

0,0143

1,42%

12

412

0,00243

0,0168

0,0167

1,66%

25

411

0,00243

0,0193

0,0191

1,89%

25

410

0,00244

0,0217

0,0215

2,12%

25

409

0,00244

0,0241

0,0238

2,36%

25

408

0,00245

0,0266

0,0262

2,59%

27

407

0,00246

0,0290

0,0286

2,82%

34

406

0,00246

0,0315

0,0310

3,05%

34

405

0,00247

0,0339

0,0334

3,28%

47

404

0,00248

0,0364

0,0358

3,51%

48

403 to 205

83

204

0,00490

0,0413

0,0405

4,05%

83

203

0,00493

0,0462

0,0452

4,52%

83

202

0,00495

0,0512

0,0499

4,99%

83

201

0,00498

0,0562

0,0546

5,46%

100

200

0,00500

0,0612

0,0593

5,93%

103

199

0,00503

0,0662

0,0641

6,41%

103

198

0,00505

0,0712

0,0688

6,88%

120

197 to 1

Table 4: Torch-Nozzle - Cumulative Weibull Hazard Method

Analysing the times to failure, it is considered t0=0. Taking into account 418
elements and plotting them in the Weibull paper (see Plot 1), we can obtain:

10

N = 418 elements

T0 = 0 hours (guarantee life)

= 0,725

= 70003 hours (characteristic life)

b)

Plot 1: Torch-Nozzle - Cumulative Hazard Weibull Plot, data of Table 4

As a conclusion of Weibull plot, it is possible to express that the shape factor is

lower than 1 (=0,725). That result means that there is a running in pattern
of failure. The characteristic life is =7000 h, this is the time at which 63% of
the torch-nozzles are expected to have failed.
3

extrapolating the graph to achieve the F(t)=63%

11

2. Analysis of competing modes of failures

If we analyse the CMMS records in detail, we can discovered that there are two
different failure modes.
On the one hand, one failure mode is related to Nozzle changing (mounting). It
is a childhood failure.
On the other hand, it is a random failure mode that is produced by the slag
during the thermal separation process (slag). The actual system does not have
edge detector. Because of this, an open control loop determines the theoretical
position of the slab. When the theoretical is quite different from the real
position, it is produced a slag that affects to the nozzle and it must be replaced.
As a consequence, the previous Weibull analysis is quite misleadingly since it
could not differentiate between the two failures mode and classify them just as
failure.
Now it is develop the Weibull Analysis (2 plots) with the two failures mode:
Mounting and Slag.

a) Mounting Failure Mode

Elements
suspended
with same
TTF

b)

TTF
Mode of
f/s
(h)
Failure

Reverse Observed Cumulative

hazard
Rank
Hazard
n
(1/n)
H(t)

CDF
F(t)=1-e{H(t)}

F(t)
%

0,5

mounting

407

0,00246

0,00246

0,00245

0,25%

mounting

406

0,00246

0,00492

0,00491

0,49%

mounting

405

0,00247

0,00739

0,00736

0,74%

12

mounting

404

0,00248

0,00986

0,00982

0,98%

12

mounting

403

0,00248

0,01235

0,01227

1,23%

12

mounting

402

0,00249

0,01483

0,01472

1,47%

12

mounting

401

0,00249

0,01733

0,01718

1,72%

25

mounting

400

0,00250

0,01983

0,01963

1,96%

25

mounting

399

0,00251

0,02233

0,02209

2,21%

25

mounting

398

0,00251

0,02485

0,02454

2,45%

25

mounting

397

0,00252

0,02736

0,02699

2,70%

199

48

197

120

Table 5: Torch-Nozzle-Cumulative Weibull Hazard Method, Mounting Failure

12

c) Slag Failure Mode

Elements
suspended
with same
TTF

199

197

TTF
Mode of
f/s
(h)
Failure

Reverse Observed Cumulative

Rank
Hazard
hazard
H(t)
n
(1/n)

CDF
F(t)=1-e{H(t)}

F(t)
%

27

slag

407

0,00246

0,0025

0,0025

0,25%

34

slag

406

0,00246

0,0049

0,0049

0,49%

34

slag

405

0,00247

0,0074

0,0074

0,73%

47

slag

404

0,00248

0,0099

0,0098

0,98%

48

83

slag

204

0,00490

0,0148

0,0147

1,47%

83

slag

203

0,00493

0,0197

0,0195

1,95%

83

slag

202

0,00495

0,0246

0,0243

2,43%

83

slag

201

0,00498

0,0296

0,0292

2,92%

100

slag

200

0,00500

0,0346

0,0340

3,40%

103

slag

199

0,00503

0,0396

0,0389

3,89%

103
120

f
s

slag
-

198
-

0,00505
-

0,0447
-

0,0437
-

4,37%
-

d)

Table 5: Torch-Nozzle-Cumulative Weibull Hazard Method, Slag Failure

e)

Plot 2: Cumulative Hazard Weibull Plot, competing mode of failure

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The graphical Weibull competing failures mode, show the following results:
Mounting Failure Mode graph

t0 = 0 hours (minimum life)

= 2,8 x 104 hours (characteristic life), time at which 63% of the nozzles

mounting

= 0,57 (shape factor)

are expected to failed.

Slag Failure Mode graph

Slag = 1,8 (shape factor)

t0 = 0 hours (minimum life)

= 550 hours (characteristic life), time at which 63% of the nozzles are
expected to failed.

As a conclusion, it is important to separate the different failure mode. With the

competitive failure modes analysis, it is possible to obtain the real shape factor
associated with each failure mode.

D.

Analysis of possible solutions

Analysing the graphical Weibull competing failures modes, it is possible to

recommend the following solutions:

1. Mounting Failure Mode Possible Solution

mounting

= 0,57, hyper exponential shape factor, means that there is a

running in failure mode. That result confirms that the mounting problem is a
childhood problem and it is necessary to work in two ways:
a) Improve the nozzle mounting process.

Develop a reliably method.

Analyse the actual process, consult about it to the nozzle supplier.

Develop a Continuous improvement team.

Training the nozzle changing team about the new procedure

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Supply the proper tools for this application

Maintain a fix mounting team (avoid changing people)

a) Estimating cost and benefit:

I consider that working on procedure and training maintenance people is an
important part of the maintenance engineer. It means works with your peoplewith your team. I consider that maintenance is man base process. It is
impossible to think in maintenance without thinking in people. As a consequence
I consider that the cost of this solution is part of the Maintenance Engineer duty.
We can estimate that it takes 50 hours of a maintenance engineer, it represents
at about 800. If it is possible to avoid the mounting problem, Ternium Siderar
could increase the CCD availability (reducing the 1 hour of downtime) and it
could represent a benefit of 8.000 / year.
b) Work in order to reduce the nozzle changing. Why do not to chance the
nozzles ones a week? Because reducing the nozzle changing we are reducing the
childhood mortality. In addition to this, as we can see of the Weibull analysis,
both problems are not associated with wear out failure modes. It is important to
analyse with production and maintenance team, why the nozzles are being
changed twice a week?

b) Estimating cost and benefit:

The b) proposal is double economical benefit since it reduced the nozzle spare
consuming. One the one side it will reduce the unavailability mounting problem
to the haft that represents a benefit of 4.000 / year. One the other side, the
less spare nozzles consumption represents an additional benefit of 10.000 /
year. In total the b) benefit will be 14.000 / year.
If we consider that a) and b) alternatives will be implemented, the total benefit
will be 18.000 / year with a cost of 800. It is important to highlight that this
cost is part of the maintenance staff cost (fix cost).

2. Slag Failure Mode - Possible Solution

Slag

= 1,8 negative exponential shape factor, means that there is a random

failure mode. That result confirms that the slag problem is not an inherent

15

nozzle failure mode. The context is affecting and making the nozzle to fail. It is
necessary to work in the slag formation cause reason in order to improve the
nozzle life.
For this porpoise I will recommend:

Develop an edge detector system (investment).

Consult to the supplier about if it exist edge detector system for this
application

Consult about edge detector system to another CCD around the world.

a) Estimating cost and benefit:

For this solution, the investment cost is 8.000 and the benefit will be
8.000/year. I consider that it must be implemented since the investment will
return in 12 months.

E.

Conclusion

In my opinion, the Weibull analysis is a useful technique that characterizes the

problem and helps me to identify where the cause reason of the reliability
problems are.
In the case of the Torch Cutting Machine, I could identify 2 cause reason of
reliability problem with different characteristic. I have presented 3 possible
solutions that represent a financial benefit for Ternium Siderar. Furthermore,
this analysis justifies the investment since there is an analytic technique not an
opinion as it usual in my company.
The application of Weibull technique is very advisable for maintenance
engineering in order to analyse unavailability problems, characterise its failures,
identify the cause root and justify its solutions. The same technique is
recommendable when there is a quality or safety equipment reliability analysis.

F.

Contrasting the result with Weibull software

Trying to validate these results, I made an internet investigation in order to

obtain software that could help me to graph the Weibull analysis. My first

16

intention it was to be more preciously in the graphical process. Fortunately I

found very good reliability software that could help me to validate the major
analysis results. The software is Weibull ++ 7 from ReliaSoftxi.

1. Input data
Following the Weibull ++7 instructions, I feed up the system with the following
data (the same data that I used for Weibull Analysis of competing modes of
failure):

2. Software Answer - Weibull ++7

The ReliaSoft Weibull ++7, show the following results:
Mounting Failure Mode graph

= 1,3663 x 104 hours (characteristic life), time at which 63% of the

mounting

= 0,6037 (shape factor)

nozzles are expected to failed.

Slag Failure Mode graph

Slag = 2,1980 (shape factor)

17

= 418,0922 hours (characteristic life), time at which 63% of the nozzles

are expected to failed.

This answer is quite similar that I could obtain by the manual graphical method.
In addition to this, I consider that the software give more accurate answer since
every result is mathematically calculated. In the graph method there are some
manual mistakes that affects to the reliability answer. Apart from that, the most
important part is the concept and the analysis that are associated with the
result. It is the same

mounting

= 0,6037 (ReliaSoft Weibull ++7) than

= 0,57 (manual method). For the torch-nozzle example, both

mounting
mounting

represents a childhood problem and this is the key part of the analysis.

a)

Weibull Probability: F(t)

18

b)

Reliability vs Time [ R(t)=1-F(t) ]

c)

Probability of failure befote time t, [ F(t)=1-R(t) ]

19

d)

Probability Density Function (Pdf), [ f(t) ]

e)

The Hazard Rate, [ Z(t) = f(t) / R(t) ]

20

f)

Failure Suspension Graph

g)

Failure Suspension Chronogram

21

G. References

Ternium Siderar, http://www.ternium.com/sp/default.asp

ii

GeGa Lotz GMBH (1997), Operation and Maintenance Manual for Torch Cutting
Machine.

iii
ii

Gega Lotz GMBH (2009), Nozzle Data.

http://www.gega.de/files/duesenheft_duesendaten_stand_juli_2009_1.pdf

Section 4.2 Analysis of data with many censored items The Cumulative Hazard
Method, M13-Reliability, Maintainability and Risk

xi

Weibull ++7, ReliaSoft, Free Download Store, link:

http://www.reliasoft.info/download/download.php?id=c28e16df92364758675ed02cab766d7b

27