Warming Winds, Rising Tides Unstable Weather

A warming atmosphere and ocean make for a great deal of extra energy available f
or the creation of weather. Around the world, recent data show an increase in se
verity of storms, droughts, rainfall, and floods.
The disastrous hurricane season of 2005 was just one indication of how synergist
ic weather is with sea level rise, loss of wetlands, social issues, and the abil
ity of governments to respond. Three storms strengthened to category 5 in the At
lantic Basin for the first time in a single season (Katrina, Rita, and Wilma). A
n unprecedented 27 named tropical storms formed, according to NOAA, and more tha
n half of them became hurricanes.

2005 equaled 1998 as warmest year ever recorded. NOAA reported Mean temperatures
through the end of November were warmer than average in all but three states. N
o state was cooler than average. A July heat wave ... broke more than 200 daily
records established in six western states. The heat wave spread across the count
ry during late July, scorching the East and prompted record electricity usage in
New England and New York.

Drier-than-average conditions contributed to an active wildfire season that burn

ed more than 8.5 million acres in 2005.... This exceeds the old record set in 20
00 for acreage burned in a wildfire season for the U.S. as a whole. At the end o
f November, 18 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate-to-extreme drought
... in contrast to 6 percent at the end of November last year. Worldwide, signi
ficant weather and climate events for the globe included severe drought in parts
of southern Africa and the Greater Horn of Africa, extreme monsoon-related rain
fall in western India including a 24-hour rainfall total of 37.1 inches in Mumba
i, the worst drought in decades in the Amazon River basin, severe drought in lar
ge parts of western Europe, and a record warm year in Australia. For details ple
ase link to httpwww.ncdc.noaa.govoaclimateresearch2005annann05.html

Heat is a particularly insidious killer, especially in urban centers heavily pop

ulated by the poor and elderly. Heat kills many more people than do other weathe
r disasters such as tornados, even in the United States. The worst local US heat
wave killed more than 730 people in Chicago in July 1995. Unfortunately it was
far exceeded by the European heat wave of August 2003, which claimed at least 35
,000 lives. France alone, which suffered through two weeks with readings as high
as 104 F (40 C), lost nearly 15,000. As Janet Larsen of the Environmental Polic
y Institute wrote, this is 19 times the world death toll from SARS.
A study of long term European temperatures, published in Science in March 2004 s
howed that 2003 was the hottest summer in 500 years, part of a trend that is not
expected to abate. Jonathan Patz and colleagues wrote in Nature in 2005 that th
is has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions
of the world. They warned of increasing effects in temperate latitudes and spraw
ling cities, where the majority of humans live now.

Weather disasters, perhaps now less often Acts of God, are increasing. Insurance
 companies paid out a record $145 billion on weather disasters in 2004, accordin
g to the clearinghouse Munich Re, compared to $65 billion the year before and $3
6 billion in 2001. This reflects primarily the number of people at risk in storm
-prone areas like coasts and the increasing value of their property. Instability
in the atmosphere may also increase the number of rapid changes and inclement w
eather, illustrated by these photos of Prospect Park, Brooklyn New York Daffodil
s bloom on a 70 degree day in April 2000 (roll mouse over to see change), but th
e next day they are buried in 4 inches of snow.
Meteorologists already see an increase in severity of storms, rainfall, and floo
ds (this aerial of Gurnee Illinois was made after abnormal rains in the spring
of 2004). These anomalies from what we think is normal are expected to continue
around the world.

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