Professional Documents
Culture Documents
3-34. A Group of Medical Professionals Is Considering The Construction of A
3-34. A Group of Medical Professionals Is Considering The Construction of A
3-34. A Group of Medical Professionals Is Considering The Construction of A
$30000
$30000
Favorable
Market
(0.5)
Unfavorab
le Market
(0.5)
$100000
$40000
3-38. Bill Holliday is not sure what she should do. He can either build a quadplex
(i.e., a building with four apartments), build a duplex, gather additional
information, or simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the
results could be either favorable or unfavorable, but it would cost him
$3,000 to gather the information. Bill believes that there is a 5050chance
that the information will be favorable. If the Rental market is favorable, Bill
will earn $15,000 With the quadplex or $5,000 with the duplex. Bill doesnt
have the financial resources to do both. With an unfavorable rental market,
however, Bill could Lose $20,000 with the quadplex or $10,000 with the
duplex. Without gathering additional information, Bill estimates that the
probability of a favorable rental market is 0.7. A favorable report from the
study would increase the probability of a favorable rental market to 0.9.
Furthermore, an unfavorable report from the additional information would
decrease the probability of a favorable rental market to 0.4. Of course, Bill
could forget all of these numbers and do nothing. What is your advice to
Bill?
Answer :
EMV
EMV
EMV
EMV
EMV
EMV
(Rude
(Rude
(Rude
(Rude
(Rude
(Rude
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
1)
=
=
=
=
=
=
2
(Quadplex)
B
(Do Not
Conduct)
3
(Duplex)
No Facility
4
(Quadplex)
A
(Conduct
Study)
5
(Duplex)
No Facility
6
(Quadplex)
7
(Duplex)
No Facility
(0.7) Market
Favorable
$15000
(0.3) Market
Unfavorable
$-12000
(0.7) Market
Favorable
$5000
(0.3) Market
Unfavorable
$-10000
$0
(0.9) Market
Favorable
$12000
(0.1) Market
Unfavorable
$-10000
(0.9) Market
Favorable
$2000
(0.1) Market
Unfavorable
$-13000
$3000
(0.6) Market
Favorable
$12000
(0.4) Market
Unfavorable
$-23000
(0.6) Market
Favorable
$12000
(0.4) Market
Unfavorable
$-13000
$-3000
3-40. Mark Martinko has been a class A racquetball player for the past five
years, and one of his biggest goals is to own and operate a racquetball
facility. Unfortunately, Marks thinks that the chance of a successful
racquetball facility is only 30%. Marks lawyer has recommended that he
P ( RF|SF ) P(SF )
P ( RF|SF ) P ( SF ) + P ( RU |UF ) P(UF )
P (SFRF) =
0.8 0.3
0.8 0.3+0.3 0.7
= 0.53
State of
Conditional
Prior
Joint
Poskrior
Name
Favorable
Probability
Probability
Probability
Probability
0.8
0.3
0.24
0.53
0.3
0.7
0.21
0.47
Market
Non Favorable
Market
Total
0.45
So the probabiity of a success full driving range given a favorably research 0.53
and 0.47