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SP Apparels LTD: Subdued Growth Elevated Valuations
SP Apparels LTD: Subdued Growth Elevated Valuations
August 2, 2016
SP Apparels Ltd
Rating matrix
Rating
Avoid
Issue Details
Issue opens
2-Aug-16
Issue closes
4-Aug-16
239.00
Fresh Issue
215.00
24.00
0.83
Higher band
0.80
QIB
50%
Non-institutional
15%
Retail
35%
55
~| 63
~| 70
~| 27.9
~| 4.9
Balance Amount
~| 239
SPAL manufactures and exports knitted garments for infants and children.
Exports constitute ~86%, 84% and 79% of SPALs total revenues over
FY16, FY15 and FY14, respectively. In addition to the same, top five
customers comprise ~95% of total revenues. In the absence of long-term
supply agreements, we believe this client concentration is a major risk.
Furthermore, with the new textile policy promoting smaller manufacturing
units, there would be increased competition, which may lead to tepid
volume growth and competitive pricing.
Subdued realisation growth; volumes & repeat orders key for topline growth
Pre Issue
Post Issue#
87.5
59.6
12.5
Public
4.9
35.5
As global players seek price arbitrage, which apart from quality remains
key, realisation growth is expected to remain subdued. Although SPALs
production volumes grew at 3% CAGR in FY13-16, repeat orders remains
key to keep utilisation levels elevated. SPAL currently operates at 88%
utilisation level, with order visibility of four months. We believe any
softening in the same would drastically impact the financials.
Growth key for valuation; 19x FY16 P/E appears expensive; AVOID
Investment Concerns
Significant client concentration in export business
Shareholding Pattern
P/E
EV/EBITDA
P/B
ROCE
ROE
FY13
285.1
16.5
8.1
11.1
2.9
FY14
101.1
14.1
6.9
12.9
7.1
FY15
66.4
12.6
6.3
14.7
9.8
FY16
19.4
10.2
4.9
18.0
26.2
Research Analyst
Bharat Chhoda
bharat.chhoda@icicisecurities.com
Ankit Panchmatia
ankit.panchmatia@icicisecurities.com
At the upper price band of | 268, the stock is valued at 19.4x post issue
equity FY16 P/E, which appears to be high considering its growth
momentum. This is compared to players in a similar business like Kitex,
KPR Mills and Siyaram Silk that are growing at higher annual rates and
trading at lower/similar multiples. Hence, we recommend that investors
AVOID subscribing to the IPO.
Exhibit 1: Key Financials
| crore
Net Sales
EBITDA
EBITDA Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
PAT
PAT Margins (%)
Diluted EPS (|)
FY11
369.0
52.6
14.2
16.0
25.2
14.1
3.8
5.6
FY12
400.6
60.2
15.0
16.3
40.3
9.7
2.4
3.9
FY13
428.5
55.0
12.8
16.9
34.3
2.4
0.6
0.9
FY14
450.9
63.9
14.2
17.6
35.6
6.7
1.5
2.7
FY15
472.6
68.9
14.6
20.0
31.2
10.2
2.1
4.0
FY16
532.8
85.3
16.0
20.1
25.3
34.7
6.5
13.8
Company Background
Exhibit 2: No. of garments manufactured
45
40
35
39
36
32
31
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Source: RHP
Page 2
SPAL proposes to utilise | 75.7 crore from the net proceeds towards:
Enhancing spinning capacity (from 16896 spindles to 22272 spindles)
Increasing the blow room capacity (from 3200 kg/day to 15015
kg/day)
Setting up a new knitting facility and
Investment in balancing equipment at the SIPCOT facility
4
4
4
1
1
1
1
2
10
10
9
5
4
Source: RHP
Page 3
Objects of issue
The objects of the net proceeds (as defined below) of the fresh issue are:
(a) Repayment of debt
(b) Expansion & modernisation of manufacturing facility; and
(c) Opening of stores under brand Crocodile
Exhibit 5: Break-up of objects of offer
Total estimated cost
2018
2019
63.0
63.0
63.0
70.2
70.2
28.1
35.1
7.0
27.9
27.9
6.5
10.4
10.9
4.9
4.9
TBD
Total
4.9
-
Source: RHP
Key Financials
The company, as on FY15, has a total capacity of 50 million pieces. The
number of apparels manufactured grew at a CAGR of 3% in FY13-16 from
35.5 million pieces in FY13 to 39 million pieces in FY16. Accordingly,
revenues increased at a CAGR of 8% over the same period from | 429
crore in FY13 to | 533 crore in FY16. The capacity utilisation was at 88%
for FY16. Majority of the garments were exported to international players
like Tesco, George, Primark, Mothercare, etc. Sale from exports were at
36 million pieces, which is ~92% of the production.
Exhibit 6: Number of garments manufactured
600.0
533
500.0
429
451
| crore
400.0
401
473
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Source: RHP
Page 4
180.0
16.0
15.0
12.8
14
12
10
90.0
| crore
135.0
16
14.6
14.2
55.0
63.9
68.9
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
85.3
60.2
6
45.0
4
2
0.0
0
EBITDA
Source: RHP
6.5
30.0
20.0
2.4
9.7
2.4
FY12
2.1
1.5
10.0
0.0
| crore
6.7
10.2
34.7
FY14
FY15
FY16
0.6
FY13
PAT
1
0
Source: RHP
26.2
20
10
11.4
11.1
14.7
12.9
18.0
12.4
9.8
7.1
0
FY12
2.9
FY13
FY14
ROCE
FY15
FY16
ROE
Source: RHP
Page 5
Investment Concerns
Overdependence on exports; absence of long term agreements
The export business contributes significantly to total revenues of the
company. Approximately 90% of total revenues were generated by
export of knitted garments products for infants and children. The
company refrain from getting into long term sales contract with any of the
export customers. However, they execute sales orders based on the
purchase orders received from customers. The purchase order usually
involves designing, quantity, delivery schedule and price. Accordingly,
SPAL manufactures the demanded requirements of the customers. The
prime responsibility of SPAL is to manufacture the products as per the
quality requirements and deliver such products on a timely basis.
Generally, the orders are placed at the start of each season. However,
there are no binding agreements with existing customer to provide future
orders. SPAL does not enter into long-term sales contracts with the
customers, exposing the same to the risks of bleak revenue visibility.
Furthermore, 80% of total revenues are earned from customers outside
India and are denominated in foreign currency. Although the company
follows prudent hedging policies, cancellation of any such order would
cause significant losses to the company.
Page 6
Peer Comparison
Exhibit 10: Valuation comparison with peers
CMP M Cap
Company
S P Apparels (higher price band)
Kitex Garments
(|)
268
EPS (|)
(| Cr)
FY14
674
2.6
FY15
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY16
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY14
3.9 13.7 *
19.4
0.0
FY15
P/B (x)
FY16
FY14
0.0 10.2*
NM
FY15
D/E (x)
FY16
NM 4.9*
RoE(%)
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY14
2.8
2.2
1.7
7.1
FY15
FY16
9.8 26.2 *
495 2,347
11.9
20.5
23.3
7.5
26.2
18.8
4.1
13.6
9.3
2.4
9.7
5.7
0.8
0.7
0.4
38.7
45.0 35.5
KPR Mills
1,105 4,173
33.2
36.6
39.6
3.6
13.1
21.0
2.8
6.5
9.5
0.6
2.1
3.2
1.3
1.0
0.8
18.8
19.9 20.7
1,000
66.5
82.0
93.0
4.3
10.7
11.8
3.7
5.9
7.4
0.7
1.9
2.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
18.6
19.6 17.5
941
Page 7
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Revenue
Growth (%)
Total Raw Material Costs
Purchase of Traded Goods
Employee Cost
Other Operaitng Expense
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Growth (%)
400.6
428.5
7.0
170.0
0.0
78.6
124.9
373.5
55.0
-8.7
450.9
5.2
206.9
0.0
76.1
104.0
387.0
63.9
16.2
472.6
4.8
206.2
0.0
100.0
97.4
403.7
68.9
7.9
532.8
12.8
204.2
0.0
121.1
122.2
447.5
85.3
23.8
16.3
43.9
40.3
1.0
0.0
4.6
-4.5
9.0
0.0
9.0
16.9
38.1
34.3
0.4
0.0
4.1
2.1
2.0
0.0
2.0
17.6
46.2
35.6
1.2
0.0
11.9
5.4
6.5
0.0
6.5
20.0
48.9
31.2
6.7
0.0
24.4
14.6
9.8
0.0
9.8
20.1
65.2
25.3
4.9
0.0
44.9
10.7
34.1
0.0
34.1
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
16.8
20.0
41.3
78.1
142.4
0.0
0.0
10.2
308.6
164.5
89.9
50.5
3.6
539.3
16.8
20.0
43.7
80.5
100.1
0.0
0.0
12.2
337.8
162.6
110.5
62.0
2.6
530.5
16.8
27.2
50.3
94.4
92.0
0.0
0.0
17.2
321.6
172.8
107.5
37.2
4.1
525.3
16.8
27.2
59.3
103.3
72.8
1.5
0.0
31.7
310.4
156.6
121.5
23.4
8.9
519.7
17.1
20.0
95.6
132.7
67.9
4.1
0.0
37.2
319.4
162.7
116.8
29.5
10.4
561.2
275.8
26.5
302.3
5.9
0.1
9.0
0.0
222.1
122.9
56.8
5.8
0.9
35.7
0.0
539.3
293.3
0.0
293.3
5.9
0.1
11.2
0.0
220.1
125.7
50.9
6.1
0.9
36.3
0.2
530.5
278.9
0.0
278.9
5.9
0.0
15.8
0.0
224.7
125.3
54.2
14.4
0.7
29.3
0.8
525.3
269.5
0.0
269.5
5.9
0.5
23.2
0.0
220.6
107.3
74.3
6.8
0.3
31.5
0.4
519.7
271.1
3.6
274.6
5.9
0.4
29.0
0.0
251.3
127.5
81.6
11.1
0.2
30.7
0.3
561.2
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income
Exceptional item
PBT
Tax
PAT
Minority Interest
Reported PAT
150.6
0.0
74.5
115.3
340.4
60.2
Page 8
RATING RATIONALE
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Page 9
Disclaimer
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We Ankit Panchmatia, PGDM (Finance) and Bharat Chhoda, MBA (Finance); research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research
report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s)
or view(s) in this report.
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