September 2016 Issues ana News By David Holmes The Last 6 Months Hal ‘The Apostle Paul instructs us: Page LNew Staff Member Jane Alford Holmes has joined our agency as of September 1, 2016, as Administrative Assistant to the boss (me) and Registered Investment Adviser in-training, Jane has been involved in our cattle business and agency since | married her in December 2000. She will be more involved on a day to day basis and I thought you might like to know a little about her background. Jane graduated from Auburn University with a BS in Speech Communication and from Georgia State University with a MEd in Educational Administration and Supervision. She taught school for several years in Columbus, Georgia where she was raised. After several years she left teaching to become office manager for Rawls & Associates, Life, Health, and Disability Insurance Company. In 1981 she was tapped by the Reagan Administration for a position as Public Affairs Director (GS-14) in HHS Region 4. While in this position she was the spokesperson for the Administration within Region 4 (the 8 Southeastern states) for issues relating to Social Security, Medicare, Aging Services, and the Public Health Administration. This entailed meeting with editorial boards, radio and TV interviews as well as writing editorials regarding HHS issues and the Reagan Administration. In 1986 she transitioned into a position with Social Security Region 4 Office to design and install computers and modular furniture within a number of offices and the Teleservice Center located in Auburn, WA. During this time she learned to use the CAD (computer assisted drawing) system for design. In this position she moved to the Phoenix, AZ, area and continued design within the Western US. After a short time with GSA in San Francisco, she returned to Phoenix in a managerial capacity with SSA. In 1999, she retired from the Federal Government. In 2000 she met a widower from Cross Plains, TX, who managed to marry her and carry her away. Since that fateful time she has continued to bless my life as my helpmate and friend, Ihave always valued her opinion and hope that you will welcome her as a valuable member of our staff. Jane joins Danielle Lindsey, our Investment Technical Assistant and Tabitha Sutton, our seek to serve your insurances and investment Do call when you have questions or need Inmeimont.& Exizin:Senions: assistance. We are here to serve you. www Davidtiolmesagency.com 1-800-327-8963 David “He that finds a wife, finds a good thing and obtains favor of the Lord," P1822 Page 2‘Mama, Why didn’t daddy have insurance. By Dovid Holmes September 15, 2016A.0. ESTATES For September, my focus has been on Estates, owned family estates that reasonably, morally and responsibly can/will provide for the family. This concept and vision is foreign to many. The usual family economics revolves around weekly or monthly paychecks. When there is thought for dad's death or retirement, that thought or application is usually very general or nebulous. Thus, not only do many families have an expensive Whole life insurance policy that won't arithmetically provide or progress toward a workable retirement sum is an embarrassment. Meanwhile, not only politicians and think tank studies but agents and advisers persist in claiming families need to save more. Pages and pages, rant after rant but no practical solutions beyond saving more money and another government program. For shame! My following, reprinted article makes the point and exclaims the known, practical and affordable solutions . for those not already dead or retired with grossly inadequate funds. Whole Life and Universal Life policies Notes Dy David Holmes Liensed Life Ageot and Reisered Inesiment Advisor Apil17.2018AD. epoe3z7.9ea Some sellers of whole life policies claim that my opposition to their policies for family provisions is blind, misdirected and not wise. Their claim: new term policies get expensive “down the road’ and the intended buyer may not then be insurable. Both points have some truth but miss the issue. Whole Life policies are not only expensive but any WL Face Amount that will provide a replacement income for a widow and/or children is clearly unaffordable for most families. Replacing dad’s $70,000 annual income takes real money. Whether the usual 5% returns or my recommended 20% minimum annual return is used, both require a significant Face Amount. © With 5%, $1,400,000 is required; with 20%, $350,000 is required. While a ‘low priced” Whole life $1,400,000 policy may cost as little as $10,000 te over $20,000 annually, a 20 or 30 year level term $350,000 policy, preferred rates, no tobacco, great health will only cost $19.13 monthly and $31.59 respectively for a 35 year old dad! Obviously this is affordable, available, Jong term, meaningful and a family and societal solution, Thus, with such informed term policies purchased, not only is the family protected but reasonable funds are left available for dad to invest/save toward building a meaningful productive family estate. With 20% average annual returns, the $350,000 family estate can be built in 20 years with $1,563 annual savings; in 30 years for $247 annually! Both affordable with a $70,000 annual income, love for the family, self-control, knowledge, wisdom and example to others ... by God’s grace, answers to prayers via the Holmes Agency. The alternative/s to such knowledge, self-control, moral direction, available products and choices is grim. Grim indeed! ©The victim-retiree left largely dependent on insufficient Social Security Widow and children lefi to fend for themselves with limited government redistributions, fear of the future, despair, a family and neighbor problem, a twisted view of life and ‘Mama, Why didn’t daddy have insurance...’ Like the Gospel I preach, my articles are good news, bringing Truth, light and godly solutions ¥ If you are sincere, as most of my clients are, Pick up the phone and call me: 8000327-8963 Said Jesus to them, “I never knew you. Depart from me you wicked and accursed.” PageHappy Letter to Widow Explaining ... © Change Advisors, do not convert to Roth, Hire Holmes By David Holmes Registered investment Advisor December 2015.0, Dear Ms. Wilson, (Name changed for privacy) Just an explanatory note. In round figures here’s what | expect the $47,482 remaining from your husband's $250,000 life insurance policy and IRA to look like with the rollover/transfer of the IRA and my rational against converting to a ROTH. First, we'll rollover the sum ($47,482) to Guggenheim as a traditional IRA vs. only $33,237 if we ROTHed it. Because we won't convert to a ROTH, you'll have the entire sum to grow for the next 20 years for your savings/retirement. Note: If we ROTHed it, taxes would cost you about $14,244 immediately and over the 20 years to age 70, | estimate you would ‘miss’ gains of about $546,080. ($14,244 @ 20% for 20 years.) Thus, after 20 years, | estimate your savings/Retirement estate would be about $1,820,345. The Required Minimum Distribution would be about $72,813 the first year and you would likely pay taxes of about $14,562 that year. Also, note, my recommended maximum annual withdrawal is about 17% or $309,458 ... with a lot of taxes. There are two issues, not taxes but (1)your expected Average Annual Returns and your (2) larger owned estate of $1,820,345 vs. $1,274,226. As | normally say, gains are first, then the secondary advantages of available programs Traditional IRA, Variable Annuity or a Roth Conversion, in some cases. ‘0f course there will always be ups and downs. Look at any market graph. Like life like driving a car, there are risks. Neither myself or other advisors can guarantee or even promise our anticipated Average Annual Returns or no losses. | assure you there will be temporary declines. But my anticipation is that we will do well seeking to serve Him faithfully. My conclusion is that, those who ignore gains for static-safety from changes choose minimizing savings and difficult times. Examine the available graphs of the performance of the SPS00, RYVYX and others vs. ‘stable’ bond funds. And, always read the Prospectus and Reports. Revealing Table picture: Why chenge dvisors end Why no converting 10 @)Roth. The current estimated toxes ($14,244) are about 30% of the amount if Rothed. Thus, you would pay toxes of $14,244 with reduced net investing of $83,237. Be aware: the issue is not what you would avoid on taxes when you start withdrawing but hew much smalller your savings-estate would be after missing 10 ond 20 years of gains! $14,244 @ 20%AAG after 20 years is $546,080 small That's a lot but note the gigantic estate difference with 20% vs. 5% gains. Trad | 47482] RMD [hs | | Roth RMO? |THE] | Tradt RMD @20e 4% annual, © 20% Baar 4% CAR | ae Sys_| 318350 60,600_| === 10 ys | 293,996 77343 20¥rs 125,985, RMD vr wase2 | | barazze 0 | [=e [sas Wes 30,856 2,676,309 o 132,409 vr10 96,364 0 Finally, note: with 5% returns how little your savings-estate would grow and after 20 years plus 5 and 10 years of RMDs, you would not have enough to live on. Like many, more money would be withdrawn and most likely, there would be ne family money. Nonetheless, with 5% returns, you would ewe no taxes! You wouldn’t have much money! Factiously, PageWhat's Best for the Family? WHY By David Holmes Independent Regisered inveriment Adviser September 20, 201A. Economics Stewardship Most cannot answer the question, what would you do with $1 million? $1omillion? This explains much whether widow, retired, student, usual saver, married, single, employer, even employer. ‘The insurance company ad recommends this life insurance/savings purchase: a million dollar, 10-year-pay cash value life insurance policy for stable savings. It costs $10,000 annually for the first 10 years. The details are there ... cash value, death benefit, suggested withdrawals, all except annual gains and the alternative: investing the same $10,000 annually for 10 years with my recommended variable annuity that we expect to have 20% Average Annual Gains. At the end of 10 years, the insurance cash value will be $113,325. We expect the Variable Annuity value to be $311,504. In 14 years $645,936 when $10,000 annually is needed for 4 years of college. (I don’t expect the degree to be in Logic, Finance or Economics.) With my recommended annuity, after withdrawing $10,000 (about 1.6% of the $645,936) for 4 years to assist with college, the annuity, like the policy, is left to grow until the graduate reaches age 65 (59 years after the policy or annuity was purchased), At age 65 the policy has $1,824,292. $75,000 is withdrawn annually and the Cash value declines. © But, at 65, we expect my recommended Annuity value to be actually over $100,000,000! I suspect, because many have no vision, don’t believe America will have God’s favor or they perversely ‘just don’t care’, that only 1 in a 1000 seek to understand and grasp the facts, issues, societal consequences and stewardship differences of these two ‘approaches’, Some dismissively say, Is too different. I ask, than what? Personal and family success vs. dependency, financial failure, denial of facts and stewardship requirement for profits? Rule «What's Wrong for this family, WHY? _ of law and private property VS. CFOMY 4 yosoe moore a capitalism, fake money and ‘more of the wry cm re a same’ ... ever saving more but never enough eee or just blissfully “given up’ with the atheistic evolutionist’s rational that all efforts are equal and no one knows? Of course, like the rest of life, there is risk in win = investing, capital can be lost, declines do and = sis will occur and specific gains cannot be : assured. However, the risk of failure is assured with the usual 5% gains, Just examine the Wall Street Journal's Mutual Fund Screener results”*"* While 108 funds had average annual gains of over 20% for the last 5 years, nearly half of the 22,000+ funds failed 10 make a profit, even an unadjusted profit before fees, expenses or taxes! Again the issue: what would/should you do with $1 million cash? $10million. biti TTT PageDMissing Estates By David Holmes Registered Inestnent Adviser September 7, 2016A0. tnvesing Extate Whose summer is gone? Who is missing the harvest?""*7? The Mutual Fund Screener insert identifies the top 15 funds and shows their specific gains. Each averaged over 20% Average Annual Gains over the last 5 years as of September 6. While 108 funds had average annual gains greater than 20% over the 5 years, the same Mutual Fund Screener showed that nearly 50% of the funds had lost money over the last 5 years! The results are overwhelming! Over a period of 20 years gaining the needed 20% average annual returns using the maximum $5,500 IRA contribution allowed is $1,232,000. Even the claimed usual 5% over the same period is an underwhelming $190,000 ... which would be depleted in less than 5 years withdrawing $40,000 annually. T have no idea why so many millions of Americans choose not just “losing” but ‘persist in losing’. Is it mostly fear, who they listen to, ignorance, a tax write off or just oblivious to the losers’ harvest they are sowing? Maybe they just lack David Holmes as their informed and experienced adviser? The good news:some are doing quite well. We are, thanks to God’s grace! FundNane Ter —ggyogfl Tease Ve tte — ve funds Bitchy Be, 62 sameamom aKa Pofunds Bia: SK 4561 Steom00 tay Dioion NAS Blo xox em ssa KTH adeNASDAQ 2A een ear sumo ayaa ‘RydecNASDAQ 2H my 42008 $255 900000 043% 319% ProFunds:UltraNASDAQiIny worn © s0771——s294g00000 208% ana% RidextspAa ae arcox som atamon SH oFunds UaNASDAG:See ops wor sanonomn 8%) tasty MoraSan Foeus Go! awoox NA NA 403% 273% ‘Mora Stan Focus GA AMOAX NA NA 3990% 2701% Pofandsntemeny nex soo s7asongo) may tnt ProEundsteath Cariny cee esr ssi000000 128 tas Diexion:M S8P B12xcay DxsLx oo $s300000 21.40% 49% tina Re oar 2 Sa fongo 4st Ahn Mey sax sea gragongoy asm tmz The willing forfeiture of over a million$ boggles my mind, more so, in the withdrawal phase Withdrawing $40,000 annually from the $190,955 fund will deplete it in less than 5 years! However, with my recommended funds and procedures, consider the blessed freedom options a million$, productive estate offers. One has well said, “Where there is no vision, the people perish PageOSeat Belt Safety-Investing 8y Dovid Holmes Independent Ragitered Ivemert Adviser Soptombor 11, 2016A0. Stewardship Do I see many investors like today’s tecnagers neglecting to use a seat belt and texting- while-driving oblivious to the road ahead? A resounding YES! A seat belt doesn’t guarantee safety. But, in an accident, the likelihood of survival is so much greater ... with the seat belt. ‘Thus, so is one’s financial survival with minimum 20% Average Annual Gains. Let’s consider if. George doesn’t change and if he does change. A recent caller, in his fifties, expressed hesitation about ‘earning too much money’ on his savings because of higher taxes on the Required Minimum Distributions. He also favored Roth IRAs because of the no-taxes on the withdrawals. Of course, he was somewhat but not totally satisfied with the usual 5% gains and more concerned about market volatility . Let's sot the stage. George is marred ond 55, hos 15 yeers to 70% ond RMDs. He hos $150,000 in his 401k thot con be converte fo 6 Traditional IRA or ROTH. He is puting $5,500 annually in his savings vevally ecming 5%. If he continues with ne changes, by 70/2, we estimate he will have about $436,455. The RMD would be $436,435 / 27.4 = $15,929. If he has received $1500 monthly from Social Security ($18,000 annually), his gross income will be $33,929. Taxes: $1,845 plus 15% of all over $18,450 (15,479 x 15% 322) TOTAL: $4,167 Note: the $15,929 RMD is 3¥a% of his retirement. Thus his net gain is maybe 1.5%. As the RMD table shows, the RMD percentage increases annually. By age 80, it is 5.35%. Thus, his Retirement fund will decline and be consumed. ‘Estate consuming’ is the Left’s plan. What will he have by age 80, assuming no changes? Rounding figures, we will calculate the RMD consumes 4.5 to 5% of the Retirement during the first 10 years. By 80, at best, he may still have $400,000 in his retirement and he will have low taxes ... still $4,000 to $5,000 annually. ‘What if he converts to ¢ ROTH and the annual $5,500 savings also goes into a Roth? He will pay income taxes on the $150,000 converted. Assuming 15% tax rate, $22,500. Additionally, he will pay taxes on the $5,500 to the Roth. With a 15% tax rate, $850 more taxes annually and only saving $4,650 vs. the $5,500 annually. At 70 (15 years), rather than $436,455, he has only $370,420 to start retirement. Has he been a faithful steward? He will have a lower taxes sinee he has a smaller retirement. His RMD: $13,519 vs. $15,929. But, what if George changes and follows my Seat-belt Safety Investing and management procedures'? George would have the entire $150,000 and the full $5,500 annually to grow for the next 15 years. With the same money, I figure he'd have $2,786,484 to start retirement! His first RMD ‘would be $101,696. Gross income would include $18,000 from Social Security. So, he would have taxes on $119,696: $10.312 plus 25% over $74,906 ($11,199) for TOTAL TAXES: $21,511. The above illustrates and clarifies the likely not good consequences of not changing. The two primary issues are, do any funds have (A)documented gross 20% Average Annual Gains and (Q)are they likely in the future? Thru 9/6/2016, the Wall Street Journal's Mutual Fund Screener showed 108 funds averaging greater than 20% Average Annual Gains over the past $ years. So, clearly 20% gains are documented with such funds as our RYDEX. Profunds, Direxion, Morgan Stanley, Heitman, Pru, Prinejpal and others. 108 of them! ‘©The future, itis in God’s hands. A steward’s triumphant love-duty is to trust Him, be repentant and bring forth gains as part of our stewardship-worship.{ prefer nearly $3million to stat ‘retirement’ vs, $300,000." Including diving, there ore risks. Principal ‘cept 5% gains wil be poorer. They misted the harvest. They have no vision. They don't look o! the road chead, [Additionally | don't work for free. A the end of each month, | charge the fractional amount ofthe onmvl 2% fee divided by 12. Page 7Estate-Thinking Stewardship Vision By David Holmes September 12, 2016AD. Stewardship 8008327-8963 A recent investment conversation with a caller caused me to think about the application of Scripture’=2#27 to home ownership. Some years ago, when moving, he sold his home and “banked” $250,000. Since then, he has been renting on very favorable terms as he contemplates buying a home. He called because he has another $50,000+ in traditional IRAs that for years have made little to nothing. Listening to some end-of-the-world rants, usual advisers, church friends and Dave Ramsey, he is conflicted about changing and the future. At one time he earlier changed some of his IRA money to a local Ramsey-recommended adviser, but has again, made little to no money! For years, great emphasis has been placed on home ownership for both newlyweds and established families. This usually requires a 20% down payment and low interest payments. Note that this focus is @ house not @ farm, not a ranch. or other productive | P'p#re your work without, and make it fit for yourself in the field; and afterwards build your house. "27 purchase which could provide income. I see this brother's situation as I usually see @ widow with her deceased husband’s insurance money. Its purpose is to provide an income producing estate not to buy a house, pay off a house some bills and rely on welfare. Consider the Proverb’s light. What's the purpose of a field if not to be income producing? Surely not something nice to look at while depending on Social Security! Thus, I understand the Proverb as, first things first. Thus, obtain, build your productive estate first. APPLICATION: The brother is in his early 50s, working and has these funds. My recommendation is to pay 20% down on a modest $150,000+/- home and productively invest the rest anticipating our 20% minimum annual returns. I anticipate in 10 years his $270,000 investment will be about $1,600,000 and in 17 years $6 million. These do well who follow my advice. Even in 10 years his anticipated estate ($1,600,000) would provide over $272,000 of annual income. Unbelievable? No, the outcome does not depend on his feelings but to whom he listens, the facts and what he does. FACTS: Are the 20% average returns guaranteed? Of course not. But like a seat-belt, the 20% gains offer a much better and likely future than a Ramsey recommended paid-up house that produces nothing but expenses and the assured poverty of the usual 5% gains and dread- dependence on Social Security. Consider the consequences. If he keeps his low retums IRAs, he may have $84,700 in 10 years and a house vs. a $1,600,000 productive estate and .... He asked how I considered the continued and persisting market-crash alarms. Jesus sai “Occupy, trade, do business until | return." | will not be like the fearful and wicke: steward of Matthew 25.1430 None know when Jesus will return, But, we must be prepared if He retums today or delays another thousand years. Vainly hoping and needing redistributions from other Americans is not faithful, godly living Finally, I encourage the reading and discussion of my documented papers and reports. As the Wall Street Journal's Mutual Fund Screener”®"* showed, 108 funds had gross Average Annual Gains greater than 20% for the last 5 years. 108! Why your and other Advisers like this brother's refuse 10 illuminate all clients about such good news, I don’t know. Also, they are not credible! Nonetheless, the magnitude of the estate-consequences of 20% vs. 5% gains is clear, and all. Truly, truly, ‘where there is no vision, the people perish. *"??'* PageSurprise Facts — of Skunk Road 8y Dovid Holnes,Reglered Investment Ader ond Life ewronce Agent Augut 26, 20164. ‘The market gyrations** ™" since November have caused many of the ‘older set’ to av Market’ lest they get shunked. Yes, truly, the market volatility is real and not that unusual”! At 60 and 70, they are falsely confident their safe and stable $500,000 is both safe and will see them through their remaining 20 and 30 more years ... into their 90s. Afterall, unlike many who didn't prudently save, their savings? have grown over the decades to this ‘comfortable’ sum. Fact-of-Retirement Clarification: ‘A. If only the usvol recommended 4% annual withdrawal is ‘withdrawn’, the $500,000 will likely provide $20,000 annually indefinitely. B. But, if $5,000 monthly ($60,000 annually) is withdrawn to meintain lifestyle and ‘expenses, with the usual 5% Average ‘Annual Returns, ail the money will be gone in less than 10 years. 10 years! “the STORET EEELETT | Sinee 12/3/35 98/25/16 Using short-term charts and seeing what we want to see and moved by surging emotions of fear, can be very costly ... in both the long term and short term, The 10 month chart is one of those factual but bad views that lead astray! While the Bond Fund remained stable, the SPS00 and RYVYX dipped, really dipped: 13% and 33% respectively in February alone! And, in June both dipped again! But, now, thru August 25 they have ‘gained’ 17% and 30% respectively! Thus, the question is, is the Faet-of-Retirement Clarification box scary or clarifying? How about the November 2015 short-term Graph? I urge the careful and thoughtful examining and use of 5 year charts. It puts in better perspective short term changes and likely longer term developments. Geaadediad Did you note that it only takes weeks or months to ‘recover’ while skunking smells always? eihveetibdl It's noteworthy that while the shown RYVYX and SPS00 have annually averaged 29.9% and 13.1% over the last 5 years respectively, few are aware of such profits. The RYVYX prufessionally used would likely ‘allow’ annual withdrawals of $85,000 indefinitely. Likewise, a mere $5,500 saved annually (as opposed to the $14,400 @ 5%) for 20 years would grow to $1,232,140. Further, $500,000 today would likely grow to $1,244,000 in the next 5 years with no withdrawals but with the usual dips... as opposed to $638,140 @ 5%. In God's orderly world, ‘men reap according to their sowing, but their emotions may destroy them. It’s clear that the ‘accepters’ of safe 5% returns are being skunked and will find themselves skunked ... traveling down the 5% Skunking Road of Surprise, USA. 2 Surprisingly, many fearfully see the vival market volatility but ‘gnare' the eso usual recovery ene! significant longer term profits! * Rt would tabe saving $14,400 annually for 20 years @ 5% Average Anrwel Savings to have grown to the $500,000, Soving for 30 years @ 5% would have required $7,167 annvally! PageTime Waits for No Man, No Woman. Not On 8y Dovid Holnes Avgut 26,2015. Saving vt. Revemen! 8006327-8963 | find the BigCharts five year chart amazingly informative, descriptive and exhilarating! I show it to multitudes. It is truly said that a picture is worth one thousand words. Daily I read reports and articles that thousands, even millions of aging Americans retirees now experience the realities and fear of running out of money. As every bill: medical, food, housing .... mounts, their savings dwindle and shrink. Many are soon ieft with only a Social Security check. Meanwhile, the silence of the politicians to the bankruptey of the Social Security fund haunts their thinking. Too bad? $0 sad? Or wake up and change? Over the shown 5 year period, the average annual gains of the funds range from the bond fund’s 1%, the ‘SPSOO's 13% and the RYVYX's 29.99%. / Yes! All returns include the bumps ary ] and dips. While the wizards of government and investment services urge all to save more and save more and demand the goverment do more, the chart shows the solution ... change, change advisers, change investments, make more money, focus on Average Annual Gains, Choose this adviset who knows about top gains that work and provide. Be smart, informed and show grace, faith and true learning: For those not yet ‘out of money’, I urge they contact me to discuss the 5 year chart and what it says. WAKE UP! Look around. Many buy common, sorry cows. They buy/use the cheapest bull available. They are not careful in the daily feeding and care. And, they complain how bad the cattle market is. Of course past performance is no guarantee of future performance. But I assure you, while I may get a dud calf or a cow may die, my diligent experienced use of proven top Angus bulls combined with my choice Angus mamas and my daily care ... my herd looks good and brings top dollars. For those still working and saving, call me, Call me now, today! You need the retums of the managed RYVYX in the Psalm Twenty Three Program to succeed now and in retirement. Saving $5,500 annually for 20 years @ the usual 5% will only be $190,955 to retire on, And, in retirement, withdrawing the recommended 4% will only provide $7,638 annually ($637 a month). If more is withdrawn, the fund will collapse to nothing in God's orderly world. But, saving the same $5,500 annually for 20 years @ my recommended 20% will grow to $1,232,140. In retirement, that Million$ plus blessed estate has freedom options beyond the expected maximum withdrawal of $209,463 annually or $17,455 monthly. Each is a matter of choice not fate. It’s the same seed money and same 24 hour days. Page 10No Free Lunches and No Free Medical Insurance By Dovid Holmes September 5, 201680. MedicalCore 8008327-8963, Since FDR’s selling of the nearly free (1% contributiontax in 1935) Social Security program, Democrat politicians have sought to also ‘promise’ free or nearly free universal health insurance to America, That’s what ObamaCare promised: low cost, nearly free, universal health insurance for all. The travesty is called the Affordable Care Act, Factually, only the Democrats passed it and Obama signed it with Democrat Speaker Pelosi arrogantly saying, you'll have to pass it to know what's in it, Challenged to the Supreme Court, Chief Justice Roberts evilly rewrote the complaint to please “the establishment’ that Mr. Trump has uniquely exposed and is so opposed to ... and opposed by. So here we are today, Labor Day 2016 with over 85,000 coal miners put out of work by Obama regulations and just weeks before the biggest election known to America with ObamaCare exposed and shown to be another major political travesty with rates escalating, declining services, participating doctors difficult to find and Emergency Room doctors and specialists not in the Program! The only thing expanding is the paperwork, growing bills and anxiety. Further, if yu don’t participate, you are fined and fined again. ike food, energy, housing, clothing and retirement years, medical care is not free and expenses are rightly expected, in varying measures. Many factors affect health insurance costs: age, build, health status, occupation, tobacco use, avocations, location, respect for medicinal instructions .... Additional factors affecting cost are competition, government rules, affordability and personal choices of coverage. All this being said, mankind still desires ‘free’. It's human nature. Thus, without God’s redeeming grace to be intellectually and morally honest, many listen to and vote for the ‘politicians of free’. I suspect this was a major aspect of LBJ’s seeking to silence the pulpits by threatening their tax status. African Americans vote Democrat because of the fifty plus years of vain promises they still ‘listen’ to. As implied above, FDR's promise of elder Social Security combined with the farm bills bought FDR his first reelection. Nonetheless, it is my conclusion that many voted for Obama in the 2012 election because of the promised “free” health care for all. It sounds wonderful, doesn’t it? As I see and understand insurance, the primary purpose and principle of insurance is to reduce an existing risk. Take home insurance. Usually the annual cosv/premium is about 1% of the house’s value. Thus, insurance on a $150,000 house would cost about $1,500 annually. I can afford the $1,500 premium or loss but I cannot afford losing my $150,000 home. Thus, I have reduced my risk from $150,000 to $1,500. And, I say, what a good deal for me. It is not free but $1,500 beats losing my $150,000 home. Just so medical insurance. It is to morally and financially protect, provide and limit one’s family existing potential risk against crushing costs and/or bankruptcy. There is no thing as free medical care anymore than there is free home insurance. And, yes, all true insurance is a ‘cooperative effort’. With health insurance, there are different risks and different costs such as deductibles, co-insurance and premiums plus reasonable and customary cost differences. In a competitive economy there are choices and alternatives, but nene are free as the Democrats claim. Just look at ObamaCare: the wonderful promises vs. the failing product and scam, Nonetheless, lam encouraged when I see that a no-tobacco use individual, 19 to 30 years old, in Texas can purchase an individual health policy with a $400 deductible, $2,200 daily room charge payment for $118 a month; like-aged husband and wife for $224 monthly ... I see light at the end of the tunnel. There will be more and better when ObamaCare is gone. Pagel 1Not the Whole Story, ‘Birth of the Index Fund? “Bogle's Folly’ Turns 40 WSheom 8/31/16 by Joron Zweig Invesing 800327-8963 (ih comments by Davi Hones) David Holmes comments: Truly a significant article. Mr. Bogle started a needed and major change with the index fund concept. However, as then, so now. Rather than addressing a family’s arithmetic and moral funds needed, he erroneously focuses on low costs and exhorts saving more. Like present government bureaucrats opposed to profits and ‘middlemen’, Mr. Bogle champions low casts vs. needed family gains, This misfoeus is like a rancher buying the cheapest 1,000# bale of hay with 4% protein for $35 a bale vs. a 1,000# bale of 14% protein quality hay for $75. FACT: a cow cannot live and produce with such low protein hay any more This BigChart Chart is factual and shows oe the dramatic difference in Average A= ‘Annual Goins over the current 5 year I= period: = Bonds o% (= Usuol fund 5% )as sP500 11.8% co Nox100 16.2% 2S Ryvix 28.3% ot nytt Ng el | oe ete NS than a family can build and retire with 5% low retums. Either the rancher will have to expensively supplement the cheap hay, get taxpayer assistance, have a sorry herd, bury cows in frigid weather or a combination. Regrettably, Mr. Bogle’s critics’ charge of mediocrity is substantiated in the comparison of the SP500* vs. the Rydex RYWYX fund. Even ‘sadder’ is the article's silence to the much greater performance of the Rydex Dynamic fund. ‘The gigantic difference in 20 years is not just the $ difference and low fees but the lack of a needed estate and funds for the family! Like the reported slow acceptance of the index concept, my 8 step use of the Rydex dynamic fund with my management has grown slowly. However, the documented fact of the continued solid performance of funds producing 20% average annual gains slowly and steadily gains acceptance and meets the moral and financial need of families for affordable savings and productive moral retirement. A $500,000 estate can indefinitely likely produce $85,000 of annual income with my’ funds vs. with 5% returns $25,000 of annual returns maybe indefinitely. If any more is withdrawn, the family wil soon run out of funds, their dread: fear. Lastly, $2,400 saved annually with 20% for 20 years ean likely grow to over $500,000 or With 5% returns, a much smaller sum of about $88,000! Consequences of choices not fate. “Forty years ago today, the index mutual fund was born when Vanguard Group's First Index Investment Trust (now Vanguard $00 Index Fund) opened for business with $1.3 million in assets. That was far short of the $150 million target that Vanguard's founder and the fund's creator, John C. Bogle,had set. The investment banks underwriting the fund were so disappointed by the measly amount they had raised that they wanted to give investors their VanGuard's VFINX closely tracks the shown SPS00. None con guarantee returns ond declines are usual. But, history is history ond instructive in God's orderly world. Thus, those millions of Americans choosing/vsing the VFINX saving $2400 annually will kely have $171,036 after 20 years vs. my $587,661. Happy over VanGuard’s low fee vs. my 2% onnval fee, they have saved a few dollars like using o ROTH ond missed o small fortune: $367,000, But ‘more, they will have to live on a greatly reduced withdrawal or run out of money. So sad. No woncler more ond more are choosing my daily monitoring ond management. Page 1 2money back. “I said, ‘Hell no,” recalls Mr. Bogle, 87 years old and as feisty as ever. Today Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX) holds more than $252 billion, and index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds invest nearly $5 trillion in combined assets. Index funds, which own essentially all the stocks or bonds in a benchmark like the S&P 500 or the Barclays U.S. Agaregate Bond average, seeb only to match the market rather than beat it, They cost almost nothing to run and outperform most of the highly paid active managers who try todo better. The idea wasn’t quite crazy in 1976, but it was close. Swashbuckling fund managers, often called “gunslingers," roamed the markets in the late 1960S and early 1970s; in 1968, several “go-go” funds had eared returns in excess of 100%. Critics called the index fund “un-American” and a sure path to mediocrity. The directors of Vanguard, then a brand-new investment firm that Mr. Bogle had carved out of Wellington Management Co., approved the idea only because “they were sick and tired of all the trouble 1 was giving them over it,” he recalls. One Vanguard director was so convinced the fund was doomed to fail that he voted in favor of it but refused to join its board, Mr. Bogle recalls. The index fund meshed perfectly with Mr. Bogle’s ambition to make Vanguard into the fund industry’s low-cost provider, he says, since indexing is so cheap to implement. One inspiration was the late Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist Paul Samuelson, who had written an article in 1974 called “Challenge to Judgment,” arguing that selecting superior stock pickers was a futile endeavor. “A respect for evidence,” wrote Prof. Samuelson, “compels me to incline toward the hypothesis that most portfolio managers should go out of business ~ take up plumbing, teach Greek, or help produce the annual GNP by serving as corporate executives.” As he was refining the idea for the index mutual fund, Mr. Bogle recalls, Prof. Samuelson often called him to offer free advice. “He became in many respects my mentor,” says Mr. Bogle. “I ‘would put the phone on speaker so I could write down his ideas as he rattled them off.” There were other precedents, although they weren’t available as mutual funds the general public could buy At least as early as 1963, the great financial analyst Benjamin Graham had advocated the creation of what we know today as the index fund. In 1971, a division of Wells Fargo launched a $6 million indexed portfolio of major New York Stock Exchange companies for the pension fund of Samsonite, the luggage manufacturer. But the fund owned equal amounts of each company, rather than holding them proportionate to their market value within the index. That required frequent trading and made the fund cumbersome to run, recalls Mac MeQuown, the former Wells Fargo executive who was in charge of the project. “This was fresh earth we were breaking,” he says. Soon the managers learned to held stocks in proportion to their size rather than in equal amounts, although several years went by before the fund attracted more than a handful of other clients. By June 4975, a rival firm, American National Bank in Chicago, was running about $300 million in several index funds after two years of slowly attracting institutional clients, recalls Rex Sinqueffeld, who worked there as an investment officer. All the Index funds grew fairly slowly during the sluggish markets of the 1970s. But an epic bull market ran from August 1982 te March 2000, with stocks returning an average of roughly 18% annually “First we got better markets,” says Mr. Bogle, “and then the index fund gave you your fair share of great markets.” As Hemingway wrote, bankruptcy happens “gradually and then suddenly.” The popularity of indexing occurred the same way. From their start at $11 million in 1976, index funds grew only to $511 million by 1985. But they expanded more than 100-fold over the next decade, to $55 billion in 1995, Their assets hit $868 billion by 2005, and no end to their growth is in sight. Happy birthday, index funds. Although crities still abound, we should all celebrate an innovation that has cut the cost of investing by more than 90% and radically democratized the financial markets.” Better yet, Welcome to the Psalm 23 Program and our 20% Average Annual Gains goal! Page 3Financial Gobblygook vs. Comparative Gains Focus WStcom 9/23/16 by Jason Zwoig investing Church Review Holmes says, | am not familiar with Wealthpire or any of its ads, materials or claims other than what Mr. Zweig below sets forth. My comments are on the details of Mr. Zweig’s article and his lack of any meaningful practical standard or remedy. This said, this article by Mr. Zweig is disappointing. It seems more like sour grapes and personal angst against a ‘self-claimed successful’ but dubious competitor than a professional warning against feelings, dishonest, blatant, misleading claims and practices. Indeed, the Zweig-claimed specific misleading claims/promises of Wealthpire: ‘big, fast" triple-digit returns while heeping rsh out of the equation” and *#8% Gains In Your Stock Portfolio Each & Every Month, Like Clock Work” arc true red flags. Clearly, the claim of ‘keeping risk out of the equation’ is truly a screamer. No way! More, the claimed ‘+8% monthly gains’ are easily checked, disproved and factually discredited. But, who cares if the guy claims to be brilliant? Mr. Zweig’s claimed ‘confluence of these forces’ is a stretch. Many factors always enter into all of ‘our assessments and decisions whether financial, cattle, house buying or car purchases. Rather than Mr. Zweig’s ‘geod mental hygiene’, whatever that means, I urge keeping with the facts, documented, third-party facts and weighing the likelihood of expected results, Is my purchase of a used Honda Odyssey a competitive buy and is it of good quality? How about the Angus heifers I buy. grow, breed and sell? It seems (my suspicion) that Wealthpire’s focus on gains has twerked Mr. Zweig's ire. I remain profoundly dismayed at the lack of attention to competitive gains by not only individual investors but ads by major funds and advisers. Amazingly, Mr. Zweig’s offered rebuke and remedy to these specific misleading claims of Wealthpire is his dubious “good mental hygiene’ rather than documented competitive gains facts. How about having an experienced , forthright adviser? ‘© My question is, Does the notable Mr. Zweig ‘approve’ of the usual mutual funds ads that use the relative and highly segregated 5 $tar performances published by Morningstar and others while glaringly silent to the superior and needed factual, documented average annual 20%" gains by 108 funds over the last 5 years?! "4 See" ‘Suspicious? Self-serving? Objective? Innocent? © What about his and the industry's silence that nearly 50% of the 22,000+ funds screened had no profits for the same last 5 years ... while 108 averaged over 20%? © Finally, are the Mutual Fund Screener’s figures wrong, misleading or meaningless? Or, alarming, very inconvenient, unsettling truths informing investors, exposing advisers? Now, do read Mr. Zweig’s article which follows. “Carlier this month, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced that a trading newsletter company, Wealthpire, and its owner had agreed to pay nearly $1.5 million to settle allegations that they had defrauded subscribers through false statements and misleading advertisements. Wealthpire and its owner, Manuel E, Jesus (who also goes by the name Manny Backus), settled without admitting or denying the allegations. While the money at stake was trivial, the lessons are important. Wealthpire promises the potential for “big, fast® triple-digit returns ‘while keeping risk out of the equation.” Its website repeatedly mentions the chance to ean “1.483% gains.” That isn’t illegal, but it is highly improbable — and, for some people, irresistible. Such messages exert a hypnotic force on the minds of those who encounter them — blinding investors to red flags they might otherwise notice. Mr. Backus, age 35, who uses that name on Wealthpire, is a Page 14self-proclaimed trading “prodigy” who has claimed online to have an I.Q. of 157. But, according to the SEC, he didn’t pick all the stocks or make all the trades that his services recommended. Until spring 2014, the SEC says, he sometimes hired another trader to pose as “Manny Backus, pretending to make trades that didn’t even oceur. Wealthpire referred calls requesting comment to Andrew Holmes, an attomey at Holmes, Taylor & Jones in Los Angeles. le doesn’t dispute the SEC°s allegations but says they involved “very narrow, discrete problems,” not “the usual stuf of some horrible scheme to defraud.” Wealthpir, he says, has adopted procedures to ensure that “none of these problems persist today.” Yet video presentations on Wealthpire’s website, until this past week, featured at least two diferent voiees saying they were Manny Backus. After inguries from The Wall Street Journal, Wealthpire removed the videos, Mr. Backus wrote the scripts but didnt read them, says Me. Holmes, and the website should have disclosed that. Meanwhile, Wealthpire's Options Profits Daily, which charges up to $297 per month for a subscription, promised that subscribers would lear how to “trade like @ pro” from “master options trader” David Beoker. The website didn’t mention that in 2006 Mr. Becker pleaded guilty to federal charges of conspiracy to falsify bank records and to commit wire fraud in connection with a $20 million scheme that overstated the profits of his commodity-trading desk at Citibank, where he then worked. Attempts to reach Mr. Becker for comment were unsuccessful. Mr. Becker wasn’t a Wealthpire employee, says Mr. Holmes, and stopped advising the newsletter in June, when Wealthpire learned of his “past offenses.” After questions from the Journal, his name was removed from the website. In a few minutes of online research, anyone could have noticed that Mr, Backus was speaking in different voices, one of his newsletters was advised by someone with a criminal record and Mr. Backus himself had boasted about being disciplined by securities regulators in Pennsylvania after he promised “At Least +8% Gains In Your Stock Portfolio Each & Every Month, Like Clock Work” without proper registration, — So how did Wealthpre grow to the point at which it claims 95,904 subseribers? That number isn’t audited, although the amount of the SEC settlement is based upon subscription fees Wealthpire collected Mr. Holmes (Not Davis says “the quality of the research and the performance speaks for itself.” If customers aren't happy with Wealthpire’s services, he says, they can ask for and receive a full refund. The SEC found that almost one-third of the retums Wealthpire reported for the stock picks of one of Mr. Backus’ services in 2013 were “false,” although it didn’t contest any of his other performance claims. But why didn’t online traders notice the red flags waving so glaringly in their faces? Robert Cialdini, a social psychologist at Arizona State University and author of the new book “Pre-Suasion,” is an expert on how people convince others to trust them. ‘©The mindset that you put people into when they encounter your material,” he says, “leads them to prioritize their attention and behave in ways that are consistent with that focus.” In other words, a consistent message can elbow your skepticism aside; eclever marketing can administer a kind of investing lobotomy, numbing you to the most obvious warning signs. ‘By harping on that precisely expressed 1,483% gain, Wealthpire adds to its apparent credibility and makes its subscription fees sound like a bargain. By emphasizing scarcity — “there are only 500 spots available” — Wealthpire triggers “fear of missing out,” says Prof. Cialdini. And its warnings to act “right now” trigger a sense of urgency. By invoking century-old experiments by Nikola Tesla, Wealthpire cloaks itself in the great inventor's authority, says Prof. Cialdini — making investors much more inclined to trust the website’s trading tips. “Subs Still, the confluence of these forces primes investors to suspend their disbelief. I’s yet another reminder that good mental hygiene — deliberately choosing what to pay attention to and what to ignore — is one of the most valuable assets an investor can possess.” ers wouldn't stick with it isn’t worth it to them,” says Mr. Holmes. Page 15A ‘Testing’ 12 Months By David Holmes, on Independent Registered Investment Advisor September 20, 2016 80083278963 It’s been a testing 12 months. Who but the wise, prudent and ‘experienced would have got in or stayed in the market? $100,000 In the past 5 years, $100,000 grew to $418,000 (33.1A4G) while ‘safe, stable’ bonds stayed at $100,000! Alarming! VERY SECRET - 108 funds had Average Annual Gains of over 20% for the 5 year period! ‘Wishes! can be goals .. Jesus’ Parables of the Tal pA y NW se PONE eos its and Virgins * vives us light for the day, vision beyond the seen and a sobering alarming-preview of each person’s ‘different ability, foresight and profit stewardship’ of His holy daily life judgment standard. It says, did we trust His sovereignty and Revelation or were we wrongly ruled, misled by ‘risk-fear’and opinions. Do we see Him as our God or us as understand His orderly world ... which the godless deny and rail against?" "° Did we go forth trusting and obeying Him, His Word worshipping our Risen Redeemer only naturally seeing what we fell and see filtered by the world”? Rom 12 ictims? Do we understand education as vain or seeking to or Revealed conclusions: our God gives differently to each, requires each to use what they have, grow, mature, prepare and develop our given ability and to make financial profits. We redeemed are alive, have the Light of God’s Word, are different and are overcomers.” Se Peter! Page 16Psalm 23 is Winning ... for Investors By Dovid Holmes, Independent Registered Investment Adviser October 4, 201680. 800#327-8963 Since January 1, 20134.D. awe ty ] : ios ad al Ly Ata ee / ae : ie Fo nag NTA Ps = aia me Ve lO . May ye oe Since I changed my procedures for the Psalm Twenty Three Program in December 2012, I have done well for Investors. Largely, I have kept with the RYVYX buying at opportune times, placing some funds in the Money Market at other times guided by my trend analysis program, In addition to our base stock: RYVYX, the above graph records the unadjusted for fees and other ‘expenses the daily changes of some leading index funds in America: the well-known $P500, VBTLX: the largest bond fund in the world and a long-time leader, masterminded by Warren Buffett: BRKA plus a former most popular hot Fidelity giant: FMAGX. Not only does the graph display the gaping differences in the growth of $100,000 over the 3 year 9 month period but the Average Annual Gains differences are likewise noticeable and notable: Fund | Growth in % | $100,000 value now | AAG Maybe Estate value in 20 years RYVYX | 250% $250,000 27.68%" $13,257,373 SP500 148% ‘$148,000 11.02% $809,141 FMAGX | _ 121% ‘$121,000 5.21% ‘$276,147 VBTLX 1% $101,000 0.27% $105,540 As an EMT, I see the usual and continuing complaints against the ups and downs of the stock market (note those above) of ads and promotions for bonds and CDs as someone complaining against the ups and downs shown in the usual EKG! We EMTs do not like flat lines. The ups and downs are usual and expected signs of health and life! Just so in the Market. *These vast differences in shorter-term’**"* actual documented gains of competitive funds and most investors’ 5% or less are difficult to comprehend. Even more so are those of longer periods as in the 20 year column, Who could imagine $13 million vs. 4 million? Nonetheless, most analyses conclude that most seek and receive only the lower returns ... and the budget consequences thereof! It seems that many succumb to the Fearfulness of the wicked steward in the Parable of the Talents.M'* No adviser can assure gains and surely there will be varying declines from time to time, even loss of original capital as the graphs so clearly report. My understanding is that as long as the Creator-God favors America with His Gospel proclaimed, repentance, forgiveness, grace, freedoms and faith, men of faith-deeds'4s4, 21426 shall prevail. The lie of the ages is the Socialist lie: men can succeed without God like with Social Security. Page L 7WV Confidential Report for September 2016A. www.davidholmesagency.com Doted October 5, 2016A.D. Welcome new investors! Rejoice, Let your light shine! M*™*'S Mt 6 Report for September 2016: As the table shows, as I expected, the market is improving. Remember, your Individual Confidential Reports are daily monitored and individually calculated using the professional technical services of CapTools. Thus, not only are they useful and meaningful, they meet or exceed the requirements of the SEC reporting and calculation standards. *The below Psalm 23 figures show the lower net after fees figures. Because of Brexit, etc, 1 continue to expect very postive results for 2016 an likely into 2017 with Mr. Trump's election Latest Last 12 | Last3years | Since 12372 2018 | 205 | month ‘months | Arg. Anmual | Arg Annual Gains ‘Year | Vear | Sept 2016 | Wwiasscnig | Tonns-sja0n6 | VasiN2- 90716 | 29.5% | 17.1% | 39 15 203 277 115% | 05 | 078 ns 83 110 30% | +135) 38 260 212 7 VBTLX 3% | 25 | 28 25 13 013 © Note: mony current articles, papers and comments are available of our web sit www.davidholmesagency.com Check: Current Issues Papers ¥ Client has $10 gold coins for sale. (Va oz, American Eagl 8) Price about $370. Call The Flight 93 Election report-paper: This is a provocative and illuminating article directed against the so-called Conservatives that refuse to support Mr. Trump. It is must reading. It's not nice, but like many of Me. Trump's points, it rightly focuses on the eastrated sterility of the arrogant Bushes and Bush-type Conservatives in and out of politics. It rightly asks not only is America truly in a erisis but what have these Conservatives accomplished in the ast 20 years of gentlemanly allowing Leftism’s growth. My continued thanks to each investor-client. My ‘thank you’ to cach, September's focus bas been Mining Estates, My several articles address this fsue andthe dire consequences of ignoring the effets ofthe usual low returns. Mary Americans are realizing that ewnimg property as part owners in America's Successful companies is vastly superior to having paper money things ke bonds Treasures, CDs and the lik. While market prices fluctuate, there remains real value in businesses that have buildings and equipment and produce needed products and things and services, including foods, computers, autos, peckaging. Note: my documented atclos are both unique and informative. They are the ony place I am aware ofthat famies can find such needed facts, ruth and insight, Dave Ramsey has more followers but my ellents have the bucks. Several have been concemed about Required Minimum Distributions. | address tis in one of the articles. Last, depending onthe degree of wrongful soverment interventions, property oumersip (out suai stocks) will most usually provide far supe and enduring value and profits as compared to paper money stuff ... Am I a ‘Conservative’ adviser? As in the political realm, ‘Conservatism’ is not accurately nor honestly identified and is increasingly being twisted by many ... who know everything, 1am different. I insist that until my clients have an estate of at least $500,000, their chief goal is to maintain Average Annual Gains of at least 20%. Those who consider Bonds and CDs as ‘conservative’ and stocks risky are mot conservative; they are fearful. This usual identification has a lot to do with misunderstanding the usual volatility and particularly the time-frame of a single day while ignoring the real longer term gains ignored by so-called ‘conservative’ investments, Significant market declines, as in 2000 and 2009 (over 40%), usually have no clear wamings. Thus, | use my trend Analyses procedure and stop-loss point Volatility & the Market: Increased volatility will continue. | suspect much of itis caused by the computer trade algerithms being used as opposed to human judgment. 1 think it's like using mark-to-market vs experienced advisers. Most overlook the huge risk of not investing as they grasp their pitiful savings with pitiful gains. The included articles and papers are valuable for understanding. As I persist to point out, most writers? articles, as | ‘mention in my comments on Mr. Bogles’ Index fund concept, fail te tell the whole story’. Low fees without needed 20% returns is a tragie situation and excuse, There is ne substitute for minimum 20% average annual gains and goal. Until next month, | pray that you have a blessed October and Fall. David Page L8