National, Florida & Miami-Dade

County
Hispanic Mobile Tracker
September 27- October 3, 2016

Background and
Methodology!

"

Adsmovil conducts daily and weekly surveys utilizing its banner advertising platform.
Over the past several years, it has relied extensively on this type of polling to conduct
market public opinion studies that inform its advertising strategies. "
Through its geo-location platform, respondents are identified nationwide from
Adsmvils database of over 32 million self identified Latinos. "
Each sample is non-random but is independently drawn. "
Adsmovil approached FIUs SIPA to engage in a joint polling effort that involves the
donation of Adsmvils geo-location platform to conduct public opinion surveys related
to the ongoing presidential election campaign in the United States. "
Adsmovil signed an MOU with FIUs School of International and Public Affairs to
jointly poll through the duration of the 2016 presidential election. The polls are
conducted jointly with the Latino Public Opinion Forum (LPOF) established by SIPAs
Gordon Institute for Public Policy."
The result is the New Latino Voice. !

Technical Information!

Survey conducted daily during the week of September 27-October 2,

2016. "
Banner Advertising Platform and geo-location of respondents
nationwide"
Sample size for Question A: "
Sample size for Question B: "
Sample size for Florida: "
Sample size for Miami-Dade: "
To date over 250,000 Latinos have responded to the New Latino
Voice."

Summary"
National Poll (Voter Intention)!

This weeks tracking appears to show how the impact of

the first presidential debate and its aftermath.
Hillary Clinton national numbers among Latinos have
reached an all time high (83.2).
At the same time, Trumps numbers are the lowest the
NLV has ever recorded.
While this might be called the Machado effect, it is
probably the result of the combination of missteps by the
Trump campaign over the course of the week. Latinos like
other parts of the electorate have reacted negatively to
Mr. Trumps post debate reactions.
It is also noteworthy that the other category has fallen
dramatically as well. That no othercandidate was
included in the debate, that Gary Johnson performed
poorly in TV interviews, and Trumps poor performance
appears to have swayed some Latinos into Clintons camp.

National Poll (Issues)!

This weeks national tracking reveals that Latinos remain

highly concerned about immigration. In fact, this is the
highest score immigration has achieved since the
launching of the NLV. Immigration was barely discussed
at the presidential debate, yet this policy area has shifted
always with support for Mr. Trump.
Security continues to be a Latino concern. This weeks
score is second only to the sentiment among Latinos
following the Orlando massacre. Recent events in New
York and elsewhere have also had an impact on how
Latinos perceive the gravest issues.
The numbers on the economy (economy plus
unemployment) have been the highest always. On its own
is below immigration and even with security, but it is clear
that the main concern for Latinos is the overall state of
the economy.

Summary"
Florida !

The NLV recorded a strange drop in Clintons Florida

support two weeks ago. We explained that by noting the
problems with her health and some of her comments
about Trumps supporters.
The debate, however, appears to have corrected the track
and Clinton is back to her historical NLV average in this
state.
It is still evident that in Florida, Trump enjoys the highest
support among Latinos in any state. And his support
continues to be among Latinos older than 45.
Like elsewhere in the United States, however, his support
has in Florida dropped considerably, probably as a result
of the debate and its aftermath.
Still, our Florida tracking shows that Florida Latinos are
fickle and are not the most loyal of Clintons followers. A
divided Latino Florida could play in favor of Trump given
the tightness of the race among the rest of the Florida
electorate.

Miami-Dade!

Miami-Dades Latinos appear to be the most vulnerable

of all. Support for Clinton returned to the 70% range and
also likely because of Trumps missteps.
Support for Trump in this county dropped 5% this week.
This could be the result of both the presidential debate
and revelations about his alleged violation of the
embargo.
Nonetheless, support for Trump among Miami-Dade
Latinos remains high especially among males and those
over 45.
The drop-off in support for other "candidates in this
county is also of note and appears to fit the national
trend.
A more in depth examination of specific Latino groups in
this community would be a most welcome addition to our
understanding of public opinion trends.

If the elections were held today for whom would you vote?"

QUESTION ONE !

SURVEY A

If the presiden-al elec-ons were held today for whom would you vote?
Clinton

77.4

62.3

25.9

11.8

64.9

64.4

67.4

74

74.7

76.2

75.2

Other

78.8

80.1

Trump

83.2

81.1
76.7

76

74.6

74.7

75.8

74.5

12.8
11.2

15.2
10.2

12.8
12.5

13
11.2

14.3
11.2

76.8

75.2

75.4

12.5
10.7

13.6
11.2

14.2
10.4

68.2

4521

23.3
11.9

23.2
12.4

18.6
13.9

16.7
15.1

14
8.7

16.5
9.5

17.3
8

16.1
7.7

17.2
7.5

14.1

13.3

7.1

6.6

16.2
11.7
7.2

7.1

10.6
6.1

If the elec-ons were today for whom would you vote?

83.2%

6.1%
Clinton

Other

10.6%

Trump
9

If the elec-ons were held today for whom would you vote?
Clinton
83.6%

Other

Trump
82.6%

5.8%
Male

10.6%

6.8%

10.6%

Female
10

If the elec-ons were held today, for whom would you vote?
Clinton
86.1%

82.6%

Other

Trump

81.5%
71.9%

13.7%

8.0% 9.5%

6.1% 7.8%

4.8%

18-24

25-44

45-64

20.0%
8.1%
65
11

What are the principal issues facing the

USA?"

QUESTION TWO!

Survey B

13

Principal Issue
Economy

8.6
14.6

18.7

19.7

EducaHon

Employment

10.3

10.8

11.1

10

8.8

9.2

9.7

10.6

14.1

13.9

12.4

11.7

12.4

13.5

12

13.5

14.7

21.9

12.3

23.1

11.6

23.7

11.8

12.6

15

8.2

10.4

22.8

26

24.3

15.9

15

11.4

11.6

10.4
12.2

22

23.2

20.5

ImmigraHon

11.4

11.7

22.8

22.8

17.7

11.7

16.2

10.8

18.2

11.8

Health

15.4

11.7

Security

12.7

12.1

10.7

10.4

12.1

11.6

13.2

12.6

20.7

9.9
22

11.2
24.6

12.5

11.8

10.8

16.9

22.1

12.3

12.9

24.8

24.6

16.5

14.9

11.5

20.2

13
10.6

12.7

20.1

19.1

Other

11.3
9.4

22.4

23.2

13.3

12.8

8.5
3.9
29.8

23.6

19.5
14.2

15.3

16.3

17

5.3

5.1

5.1

5.6

18.8

18.6

18.6

18.6

16.5

18.6

16.1
17.6

13.1
5.6

3.6
20.3

April April April May 3-9 May

11-15 18-22 23-30
10-16

5.1
18.1

22.1

6.7
20.6

16.5

May May 24- June 2-5 June

17-23 June 1
6-12

14.3

15

6.9

5.8

5.7

17.8

18.5

18.2

16.2

3.2
17.9

15.5

16.7
13.7

14

6.2

5.4

17.9

19

18.1

June June June 27- July 5-17 July

July Aug 1-7 Aug
13-19 20-26 July 4
18-25 26-31
8-15

5.6
19.9

4.5
17.7

Aug
16-22

4.1
21.1

5.9

6.3

22.6

22.8

13.8

6.1
19.5

12.7

4.1
20.8

Aug Aug 30- Sep 5-12 Sep Sep 2723-29 Sept 5

19-26 Oct 2

14

Principal Issue
Security

ImmigraHon

Economy

29.8
23.1 23.7

26

24.3

24.6

24.8 24.6

23.2 22.8
22.8 22.8
22.8 23.6
22.6
22.4 23.2
22.1 22
22.1
22
20.8
21.1
20.6 20.5
20.3
20.1 20.7
19.9
19.5 20.2
19.1 18.5 18.2
19
18.6 18.6 18.6
18.1
17.9 17.9 18.2 18.1
17.8
17.7
17.7
16.9
16.5
16.2
15.9 15
15.4
12.7 12.1
12.5
11.1
10.8
10.8
10.7
10.6
10.3
10
9.7
8.8 9.2
21.9

15

Principal Issue
20.2%

Security
Health
Other

8.5%
3.9%
29.8%

ImmigraHon
Employment
EducaHon
Economy

12.7%
4.1%
20.8%
16

Principal Issue
Economy

65

19.8%

45-64

25-44

18-24

EducaHon

5.5%

26.7%

19.3%

15.0%

4.0%

7.5%

Employment

ImmigraHon

17.6%

27.5%

2.2% 11.2%

22.4%

10.6%

34.6%

18.3%

Other

30.8%

3.5%

Health

Security

4.4% 4.4%

20.9%

13.8%

20.3%

4.2% 7.4%

20.1%

3.3% 5.0%

20.0%

17

Principal Issue
Economy

Female

Male

EducaHon

17.9%

22.5%

Employment

4.0% 14.1%

4.2% 11.8%

ImmigraHon

28.6%

30.5%

Other

Health

2.0%
7.7%

5.0% 9.0%

Security

25.6%

17.1%

18

Principal Issue
Economy
Master
Undergraduate

EducaHon

Employment

26.2%

2.4%

4.5% 10.1%

23.3%

High

18.4%

Middle

17.2%

Elementary

18.7%

16.7%

4.6% 12.1%

2.2%

16.1%

5.3%

16.0%

ImmigraHon

Other

Health

Security

11.9% 7.1% 11.9%

23.8%

27.4%

22.6%

4.5% 7.6%

37.6%

1.4% 8.2%

17.7%

36.6%

3.2% 6.5%

18.3%

12.0%

18.7%

21.3%

8.0%

19

Florida"
Week of September 27-October 2, 2016"

If the elec-ons were held today for whom would you vote?

76.4

75.7

75.3

Clinton

Other

74.6

73

Trump
77.4

76.5

74.6
58.3

29.3
12.9
10.7
July 26-31

13.6
10.7
Aug 1-7

13
12.1
Aug 8-15

13.1
12.3

13.7
13.3

13.6
9.1

Aug 16-22 Aug 23-29 Aug 30-Sep

5

13.4
11.9
Sep5-12

12.4

17.6
6

Sep 19-26 Sep 27-Oct 2

21

If the elec-ons were held today for whom would you vote?
76.5%

17.6%
6.0%
Clinton

Other

Trump
22

If the elec-ons were held today for whom would you vote?
Clinton

Other

Trump
80.2%

73.4%

21.0%
5.6%

6.5%

Male

Female

13.4%

23

If the elec-ons were held today for whom would you vote?
Clinton

Other

Trump

82.1%

78.1%

72.9%

72.2%

23.5%

19.5%
2.4%
18-24

6.0%
25-44

12.0%

22.2%

3.6%

5.6%

45-64

65
24

Miami-Dade County"
Sept 27-October 2, 2016"

If the elec-ons were held today for whom would you vote?
Clinton
73.9

71

Other

Trump

72.7

71.3
61.3

25.5
18.3
7.8
Aug 22-30

15.4
13.6

Aug 30-Sep 5

14.1
13.2

Sep 5-12

13.1
Sept 19-26

20
8.8
Sept 27-Oct 2
26

If the elec-ons were held today for whom would you vote?
71.3%

20.0%
8.8%

Clinton

Other

Trump
27

If the elec-ons were held today for whom would you vote?
Clinton

Other

Trump
73.8%

68.9%

22.6%

17.2%

8.5%

9.0%

Male

Female
28

If the elec-ons were held today, for whom would you vote?
Clinton
73.7%

69.9%

Other

Trump

73.6%
59.1%

27.3%
15.1% 15.1%

18-24

20.0%

19.2%

13.6%
7.2%

6.4%

25-44

45-64

65
29