HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

14 September, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Prev.
Close
66.678
95.373
1.122
1.327
101.93
67.051

Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.924
95.592
1.122
1.319
102.950
66.890

Chg.

% Chg.

0.246
0.219
0.000
-0.008
1.020
-0.161

0.37%
0.23%
0.00%
-0.60%
1.00%
-0.24%

GLOBAL INDICES
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SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8753.5
8715.6
28353.5
23248.6
16682.3
3014.0
2127.0
18066.8
5155.3
6665.6
4387.2
10386.6

8775.0
8866.7
28797.3
23215.8
16729.0
3023.5
2159.0
18325.1
5211.9
6700.9
4439.8
10431.8

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

Chg.

% Chg.

-22
-151
-444
33
-47
-10
-32
-258
-57
-35
-53
-45

-0.25%
-1.70%
-1.54%
0.14%
-0.28%
-0.32%
-1.48%
-1.41%
-1.09%
-0.53%
-1.19%
-0.43%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

Segment

12-Sep-16

9-Sep-16

Equity

-337.15

133.53

Debt

429.69

630.75

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

RUPEE COULD EXTEND FALL ON PROBABLE FOREING FUND

OUTFLOW
On Monday, consumer price index-based inflation rate fell to 5.05% in
August from 6.07% in July as food prices stabilized while the index of
industrial production (IIP) growth contracted 2.4% to from 1.95% in
June as manufacturing output fell 3.4%, data showed. Wholesale price
index (WPI) inflation data for August is due on 14 September.
The ease in inflation was more than estimated, reviving calls for an
interest-rate cut as new central bank Governor Urjit Patel prepares for
his first review next month.
On Monday, the rupee closed at 66.92 per dollara level last seen on 1
September, down 0.37% from its previous close of 66.68. It opened at
66.92 per dollar and touched a low of 66.96, a level last seen on 1
September. Indias 10 year generic bond yield of 6.97% 2026 bond,
which is the new 10-year debt, closed at 6.846% from its previous
close of 6.833%. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Technically, Spot USDINR is forming lower top lower bottom and short
term moving averages placed below long term moving averages
considered as weaker trend. In near term, the pair is having resistance
around 67.25 and support at 66.70.
Dollar Gains After Dovish Fed Comment
Some dovish comments from Federal Reserve board member Lael
Brainard and some tepid economic data from the Eurozone are
contributing to the greenback's gains. Brainard commented that there's
no reason to rush to raise rates at next week's policy meeting.
"Today's new normal counsels prudence in the removal of policy
accommodation," Brainard stated. Euro was flat at $1.1218 after
shedding 0.1% the previous day.
The dollar index was steady at 95.59 following an overnight gains, with
a rise in U.S. long-term bond yields to a three-month high buoying the
greenback.
Also, the dollar gains versus the yen early today lifted by a report that
the BOJ is mulling further monetary easing steps. The BOJ plans to
make its controversial negative interest rate policy the centrepiece of
future monetary easing, promising to weigh further cuts as expansions
to asset buying near their limits.
U.S. long-term yields have risen in the past month along with a
steepening in the Japanese government bond yield curve caused by
speculation over BOJ policy.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR SEPT. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

The pair is in formation of lower top lower bottom on daily time scale.

Momentum Oscillators hovering near break even line, while RSI is in verge of crossing RSI average suggesting near term rebound.

Near term support has been seen at 66.80 and 66.52 , while resistance near term resistance is at 67.50.

The overall bias for the pair remains bearish until it sustaining below 67.50

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Near Month Fut.

Last

Pivot

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

67.08

67.06

66.83

66.90

66.99

67.15

67.22

67.31

EURINR

75.26

75.36

74.75

74.99

75.12

75.49

75.73

75.87

GBPINR

88.96

88.97

88.57

88.70

88.83

89.10

89.23

89.36

JPYINR

65.76

65.62

64.94

65.12

65.44

65.94

66.12

66.44

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

66.76

66.33

67.24

66.33

68.79

64.70

66.58

66.89

67.01

67.01

67.05

EURINR

75.25

74.15

76.15

73.97

77.49

70.24

74.84

75.17

74.74

75.17

74.42

GBPINR

89.37

88.55

89.54

86.16

103.52

86.16

88.78

88.28

88.14

92.19

94.49

JPYINR

65.62

64.15

67.08

64.15

68.11

53.32

65.18

65.84

65.31

63.96

61.11

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg. in OI

Volume

Chg. In
Volume

SPOT USDINR

66.92

66.96

66.85

66.92

0.25

--

--

--

--

USDINR SEP FUT.

67.08

67.14

66.98

67.08

0.21

2333511

-138126

1264703

299028

SPOT EURINR

75.06

75.36

75.04

75.10

-0.09

--

--

--

--

EURINR SEP FUT.

75.39

75.60

75.22

75.26

-0.13

55174

-1082

51124

8064

SPOT GBPINR

88.45

88.89

88.45

88.76

-0.04

--

--

--

--

GBPINR SEP FUT.

88.95

89.10

88.84

88.96

-0.09

41645

703

36455

-16597

SPOT JPYINR

65.00

65.62

64.98

65.54

0.37

--

--

--

--

JPYINR SEP FUT.

65.38

65.80

65.30

65.76

0.61

37957

6641

44994

7006

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)

Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
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compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]