HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

10th August, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Prev.
Close
66.845
96.401
1.109
1.304
102.45
66.993

Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.843
95.778
1.115
1.307
101.310
66.997

Chg.
-0.002
-0.623
0.006
0.003
-1.140
0.004

% Chg.
0.00%
-0.65%
0.53%
0.20%
-1.11%
0.01%

GLOBAL INDICES
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Close

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SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8725.0
8678.3
28085.2
22584.3
16716.6
3030.8
2181.7
18533.1
5225.5
6851.3
4468.1
10692.9

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

Chg.

8707.0
8711.4
28182.6
22465.6
16765.0
3025.7
2180.9
18529.3
5213.1
6809.1
4415.5
10432.4

18
-33
-97
119
-48
5
1
4
12
42
53
261

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

Segment

9-Aug-16

8-Aug-16

Equity

1171.73

488.58

Debt

304.78

372.40

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

% Chg.
0.21%
-0.38%
-0.35%
0.53%
-0.29%
0.17%
0.04%
0.02%
0.24%
0.62%
1.19%
2.50%

Rupee Ended Flat, Bond Yield Fall To Three Year Low

The Indian rupee on Tuesday closed flat against the US dollar,
while the 10-year bond yield closed at a new over-three-year low,
after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left its key policy rate
unchanged. The 10-year bond yield hit fresh over-three-year low of
7.124%, a level last seen on 27 May 2013 from its previous close
of 7.173%. It opened at 7.175% and touched a low of 7.115%.
The rupee closed at 66.84 a dollar, unchanged from its previous
close. The rupee opened at 66.84 a dollar and touched a high and a
low of 66.84 and 66.98, respectively..
Technically, the USDINR August future is having support around
66.72 and resistance at 67.48.
RBI Lefts Key Policy Rate Unchanged
Rajan holds rates in his final RBI policy, more reforms to finalize On
expected lines, RBI governor Raghuram Rajan on Tuesday kept
policy rate unchanged at 6.50% as inflation is hovering around a
two-years high. However, RBI kept a positive outlook on the
economy saying abundant monsoon will help in the recovery. On
inflation front, it reiterated upside risks to 5% inflation target of
March
2017.
The
stance
of
monetary
policy
remains
accommodative and the central bank will continue to emphasize
the adequate provision of liquidity.
Rajan said that RBI has been front-loading liquidity provision
through its open market operations and spot interventions or
deliveries of forward purchases, in the wake of the expected
pressure in FCNR (B) redemptions expected in September. RBI will
continue to work to ensure that there are no market disruptions
because of the redemptions through domestic liquidity operations
and forex interventions.
Dollar Fells Amid Weaker Productivity Data
The dollar index against, a basket of currencies fell 0.38% to
95.82. The weaker-than-expected U.S. productivity data weighed
on the dollar broadly. The U.S. labor Department said on Tuesday
that productivity, which measures hourly output per worker,
dropped at a 0.5% annual rate in the April-June period, extending
the longest decline since 1979.

 The greenback was 0.57% weaker against the Japanese yen at 101.32, while bargain hunting helped the battered pound crawl away
from its one-month low, up 0.5% at $1.3067. The pound took a knock on Tuesday after Bank of England policymaker Ian McCafferty said more monetary easing was likely to be needed if the UK's economic decline worsened.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USDINR AUGUST FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Intact on daily chart.

Pair has been hovering around 200 SDMA, placed at 67.05

Momentum Oscillators are weakening on daily time scale.

Primary trend of the pair is bearish.

Recent bottom of 66.72 is strong support, while resistance for the same is placed at 67.49.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Aug Month

Last

Pivot

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

67.05

67.10

66.84

66.94

67.00

67.15

67.25

67.31

EURINR

74.33

74.31

73.70

73.90

74.11

74.53

74.73

74.94

GBPINR

87.06

87.16

86.62

86.84

86.95

87.28

87.49

87.60

JPYINR

65.64

65.60

65.26

65.36

65.50

65.74

65.84

65.98

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.01

66.70

67.85

66.70

68.79

64.04

66.87

67.02

67.19

66.96

66.88

EURINR

75.10

74.31

75.38

73.63

77.49

70.24

74.43

74.29

74.93

75.16

74.14

GBPINR

89.54

87.63

91.13

86.35

105.28

86.35

87.90

88.37

91.56

93.80

95.98

JPYINR

66.34

64.99

67.30

62.64

68.11

51.18

65.80

64.39

64.42

62.59

59.69

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Vol.

Vol. Chg

Open
Interest

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

66.84

66.98

66.84

66.84

0.00

--

--

--

--

USDINR Aug FUT.

67.06

67.20

67.04

67.05

-0.01

1723884

-51523

754306

183950

SPOT EURINR

74.06

74.25

74.06

74.07

0.00

--

--

--

--

EURINR Aug FUT.

74.35

74.51

74.10

74.33

-0.04

51454

-3227

39039

-14546

SPOT GBPINR

86.84

87.06

86.71

86.74

-0.53

--

--

--

--

GBPINR Aug FUT.

87.10

87.38

87.05

87.06

-0.59

56361

8128

71416

6462

SPOT JPYINR

65.27

65.47

65.26

65.45

0.17

--

--

--

--

JPYINR Aug FUT.

65.46

65.70

65.46

65.64

0.09

48332

283

18978

-28708

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

08/09/2016
08/09/2016
08/09/2016
08/09/2016
08/09/2016
08/09/2016
08/09/2016
08/09/2016

Country

11:00
11:00
11:00
14:00
14:00
14:00
18:00
19:30

IN
IN
IN
UK
UK
UK
US
UK

Event

RBI Repurchase Rate

RBI Reverse Repo Rate
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
Industrial Production YoY
Manufacturing Production YoY
Trade Balance
Nonfarm Productivity
NIESR GDP Estimate

Period

Survey

Actual

Prior

9-Aug 6.50%
6.50% 6.50%
9-Aug 6.00%
6.00% 6.00%
9-Aug 4.00%
4.00% 4.00%
Jun
1.60%
1.60% 1.40%
Jun
1.30%
0.90% 1.70%
Jun -10.00B -12.41B -11.53B
2Q P
0.40% -0.50% -0.60%
Jul
0.40%
0.30% 0.60%

ECO. DATA TODAY

Date Time

08/10/2016
08/10/2016
08/10/2016
08/10/2016
08/10/2016
08/10/2016
08/10/2016

08/16
08/16
08/16
05:20
16:30
19:30
23:30

Country

IN
IN
IN
JN
US
US
US

Event

Trade Balance
Imports YoY
Exports YoY
PPI YoY
MBA Mortgage Applications
JOLTS Job Openings
Monthly Budget Statement

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Period

Survey

Prior

Jul
-$8700.0m -$8116.2m
Jul
--7.30%
Jul
-1.30%
Jul
-4.00%
-4.20%
5-Aug
--3.50%
Jun
5500
5500
Jul
-$117.5b
-$149.2b

Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)

Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:
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compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
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obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]