HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

11th August, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Prev.
Close
66.843
96.183
1.112
1.3
101.88
66.997

Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.715
95.634
1.118
1.302
101.220
66.948

Chg.

% Chg.

-0.127
-0.549
0.006
0.002
-0.660
-0.049

-0.19%
-0.57%
0.52%
0.12%
-0.65%
-0.07%

GLOBAL INDICES
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SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8592.5
8575.3
27774.9
22474.6
16735.1
3018.6
2175.5
18495.7
5204.6
6866.4
4452.0
10650.9

8590.5
8678.3
28085.2
22492.4
16765.0
3018.7
2181.7
18533.1
5225.5
6851.3
4468.1
10692.9

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

Chg.

% Chg.

2
-103
-310
-18
-30
0
-6
-37
-21
15
-16
-42

0.02%
-1.19%
-1.10%
-0.08%
-0.18%
-0.01%
-0.29%
-0.20%
-0.40%
0.22%
-0.36%
-0.39%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

Segment

10-Aug-16

9-Aug-16

Equity

321.29

1171.73

Debt

1393.34

304.78

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Rupee closes at 2-month high of 66.72 vs. U.S. Dollar

The Indian rupee on Wednesday closed at two-month high against
the US dollar, while the 10-year bond yield closed at seven-year
low, as the foreign institutional investors continued to buy in local
equity and debt markets. The home currency closed at 66.72 a
dollar--a level last seen on 8 June, up 0.19% from its previous
close of 66.84. The rupee opened at 66.68 a dollar and touched a
high of 66.67, a level last seen on 9 June. Year to date the rupee is
down 0.84.
The 10-year bond yield closed at 7.101%, a level last seen on 24
September 2009, from its previous close of 7.124%. It opened at
7.125% and touched a low of 7.083%.
India's central bank is trying to prevent the rupee from becoming
too volatile by regularly buying dollars when there are inflows from
foreign investors, Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan
said on Wednesday. He also said the central bank would likely pay
a record-high dividend to the government, which would be onesixth higher than the 699 billion rupees ($10.48 billion) pencilled
into the annual budget unveiled in February.
Technically, the USDINR August future is having support around
66.72 and 66.60 and resistance at 67.48.
Pound hits one month low against U.S. Dollar amid Gilts Hit
Record Low
Pound trades around $1.30 as the Bank of England Buys 1.17bn
Mid-term Gilts. The Bank of England aims to buy some 60bn of
government debt in the next six months as it attempts to boost the
economy. However, yesterday it offered to buy back some 1.17bn
of long-dated government bonds but only attracted offers of
1.11bn - leaving it short 52m yesterday. It was the first time
since the BoE started buying government bonds in 2009 to boost
Britain's economy that it failed to find enough willing sellers to
meet its purchase target - sending long-dated British gilt yields to
record low.
Yen climbs for a second day without major data or news to trade on
during summer holiday, USD/JPY is unlikely to have a clear
direction in near term.

 BOJ may consider setting a bond-purchase range of 70t-90t yen per year instead of current 80t yen in policy review next month. The
greenback slipped to a low of Y100.954 against the Japanese Yen Wednesday, but has since bounced back to around Y101.255. The
markets in Japan are closed for the Mountain Day holiday, and will re-open on Friday.
The dollar is down slightly against all of its major rivals. The dollar index, basket of six currencies, is placed at 95. It has been
consolidating in the range of 95 to 97.60 from start of July.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR AUGUST FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

Primary trend of the pair is bearish.

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Intact on daily chart.

Pair has been hovering around 200 SDMA, placed at 67.05

Momentum Oscillators are weakening on daily time scale.

Recent bottom of 66.72 is strong support, while resistance for the same is placed at 67.49.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Aug Month

Last

Pivot

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

66.88

66.90

66.70

66.78

66.83

66.95

67.03

67.08

EURINR

74.84

74.76

74.33

74.44

74.64

74.96

75.07

75.27

GBPINR

87.53

87.47

87.00

87.14

87.33

87.66

87.80

87.99

JPYINR

66.08

66.06

65.68

65.80

65.94

66.20

66.32

66.46

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.01

66.70

67.72

66.67

68.79

64.56

66.82

67.01

67.17

66.95

66.89

EURINR

75.10

74.31

75.38

73.63

77.49

70.24

74.34

74.31

74.92

75.16

74.15

GBPINR

89.54

87.63

91.13

86.35

105.28

86.35

87.47

88.28

91.35

93.73

95.92

JPYINR

66.34

64.99

67.30

62.64

68.11

51.27

65.76

64.48

64.51

62.66

59.75

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Vol.

Vol. Chg

Open
Interest

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

66.68

66.79

66.67

66.72

-0.13

--

--

--

--

USDINR Aug FUT.

66.94

66.98

66.85

66.88

-0.19

1908934

185193

1053972

299666

SPOT EURINR

74.34

74.62

74.32

74.58

0.52

--

--

--

--

EURINR Aug FUT.

74.60

74.88

74.56

74.84

0.46

48184

-2663

47352

8313

SPOT GBPINR

87.11

87.29

86.96

87.27

0.52

--

--

--

--

GBPINR Aug FUT.

87.31

87.60

87.27

87.53

0.43

49035

-6926

62561

-8855

SPOT JPYINR

65.97

65.99

65.72

65.88

0.43

--

--

--

--

JPYINR Aug FUT.

65.95

66.18

65.92

66.08

0.43

50278

2331

44649

25671

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

Country

08/10/2016 16:30
08/10/2016 19:30
08/10/2016 23:30

US
US
US

Event

MBA Mortgage Applications

JOLTS Job Openings
Monthly Budget Statement

Period

Survey

Actual

Prior

5-Aug
-7.10% -3.50%
Jun
5675
5624
5514
Jul
-$115.0b -$112.8b -$149.2b

ECO. DATA TODAY

Date Time

Country

08/11/2016 18:00
08/11/2016 18:00
08/11/2016 18:00

US
US
US

Event

Import Price Index MoM

Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Period

Jul
6-Aug
30-Jul

Survey

-0.40%
265k
2133k

Prior

0.20%
269k
2138k

Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)

Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:
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compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]