Out Look For Texas Economy

Outlook
for
the
Texas
Economy
LUIS TORRES
RESEARCH ECONOMIST
WAYNE DAY
RESEARCH ASSISTANT
TECHNICAL REPORT
2 0 4 6
S E P T E M B E R 2 016
TR
Contents
About this Report ................................................................................................................................ 3
July 2016 Summary .............................................................................................................................. 4
Economic Activity ................................................................................................................................ 7
Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index ................................................................................. 7
Major Metros Business Cycle Index ................................................................................................. 7
Border Metros Business Cycle Index ................................................................................................ 8
Manufacturing ..................................................................................................................................... 8
Manufacturing Outlook Survey ........................................................................................................ 8
Housing ................................................................................................................................................ 9
Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................... 9
Major Metros Housing Sales ............................................................................................................ 9
Border Metros Housing Sales ......................................................................................................... 10
Single-Family Housing Construction Permits ................................................................................. 10
Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits .......................................................... 11
Border Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits ......................................................... 11
Months of Inventory ...................................................................................................................... 12
Major Metros Months of Inventory ............................................................................................... 12
Border Metros Months of Inventory .............................................................................................. 13
Housing Opportunity Index (Affordability Index) ........................................................................... 13
Housing Price Index ........................................................................................................................ 14
Major Metros Housing Price Index ................................................................................................. 14
Services .............................................................................................................................................. 15
Services Sector Outlook Survey ...................................................................................................... 15
Texas Retail Sector ......................................................................................................................... 15
Major Metros Retail Sales .............................................................................................................. 16
Border Metros Retail Sales ............................................................................................................. 16
Energy ................................................................................................................................................ 17
Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count ................................................................................ 17
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices ................................................................................................... 17

Employment ...................................................................................................................................... 18
Employment Growth Rate .............................................................................................................. 18
Major Metros Employment Growth Rate ...................................................................................... 18
Border Metros Employment Growth Rate ..................................................................................... 19
Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................................................... 19
Major Metros Unemployment Rate ............................................................................................... 20
Border Metros Unemployment Rate .............................................................................................. 20
Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications ................................................................... 21
Labor Force Participation Rate ....................................................................................................... 21
Manufacturing Employment .......................................................................................................... 22
Major Metros Manufacturing Employment ................................................................................... 22
Border Metros Manufacturing Employment .................................................................................. 23
Construction Employment ............................................................................................................. 23
Real Personal Income ..................................................................................................................... 24
Real Personal Income Per Capita .................................................................................................... 24
Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ........................................................................................ 25
Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ................................................................. 25
Border Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ................................................................ 26
Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings ..................................................................................... 26
Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings ............................................................. 27
Prices .................................................................................................................................................. 27
CPI Inflation Rates (Dallas) ............................................................................................................. 27
CPI Inflation Rates (Houston) ......................................................................................................... 28
Trade .................................................................................................................................................. 28
Exports (All Commodities) .............................................................................................................. 28
Manufacturing Exports ................................................................................................................... 29
Texas Exports by Country ............................................................................................................... 29
Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar ...................................................................................... 30

About this Report

Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas
economies. Outlook for the Texas Economy summarizes significant state economic activity and
trends.
This publication is designed to be a one-stop resource for economic indicators. We hope you find
them as useful as we do. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to
info@recenter.tamu.edu.
Dr. Luis Torres and Wayne Day

Data current as of September 9, 2016
2016, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.
July 2016 Summary

The Texas economy exhibited steady although mixed signals in July. The number of jobs in the state
increased by 23,600 for the month. Employment grew due to the services sector. Manufacturing
and mining and logging employment in Texas declined while overall services continued a positive
trend. Texas housing sales decreased across the state as building permits cooled.
The Dallas Feds Texas Leading Index, which signals future directional changes in the business
cycle, increased during the month. The index was positively affected by the U.S. leading index, oil
prices, stock prices of Texas companies, and average weekly hours worked. The index was
negatively affected by the appreciating Texas value of the dollar, decreasing well permits, new
unemployment claims, and a slowdown in the amount of new workers sought after. The Texas
Business Cycle Index that measures current economic activity continued to grow but decelerated.
Texas housing demand took a hit during July after a long stretch of positive activity. Statewide
housing sales decreased 7.9 percent year-over-year on a seasonally adjusted basis (negative 7.6
percent not seasonally adjusted), while continuing a monthly slowdown that began in April. Austin
(negative 4.5%), Dallas-Fort Worth (negative 7.3%), Houston (negative 8.8%), and San Antonio
(negative 1.3%) all decreased annually. Most other Texas metros declined on a monthly basis as
well. (Preliminary data for August show that July was not representative of a new trend as housing
sales rebounded in August.)
On the supply side, the number of building permits issued for new single-family homes decreased.
In recent months, Texas building permits showed signs of slowing compared with the increasing
trend in prior years. Dallas-Fort Worth was the only major metro to post gains year-over-year.
Despite the decline, Houston (2,939) and Dallas-Fort Worth (2,666) still led the nation in the
number of single-family permits issued, followed by Atlanta (1,842), Phoenix (1,382), and Charlotte
(1,247).
Months of inventory of Texas houses for sale remained low at 3.7 months compared with 4.4 for
the nation, seasonally adjusted (around 6.5 months of inventory is considered a balanced housing
market). Overall, supply has been restricted due to limited lot inventory and construction labor
shortages.
Rising Texas home prices reflect the low inventories resulting from constrained supply. Since 2011,
Texas home prices have increased more rapidly than the rate of increase for the U.S. In 2Q2016,
the U.S. and Texas FHFA Purchase-Only Housing Price Indexes increased from the year prior by 5.6
percent and 7.0 percent, respectively.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices averaged $44.90 per barrel compared with $51.17 a year
earlier. Oil prices started an upward trend in February 2016 and have stabilized in recent months.
High oil output and large inventories have been constraining oil price increases. The number of
operating rigs in Texas ticked up for the second straight month from a previous negative trend,
while oil production maintained recent production levels.
4

Texas employment continued to register a positive annual growth rate at 1.5 percent seasonally
adjusted, gaining 23,600 jobs over the month prior. After the employment growth rates in the
United States and Texas converged in 3Q2015, Texas has continued below the seasonally adjusted
annual employment growth rate for the U.S.
Most of the annual employment growth occurred in the services sectors primarily trade,
transportation and utilities, financial activities, professional services, education and health services,
and leisure and hospitality while the information sector continues to decline over the prior year.
Of the goods-producing industries, construction is the only to add jobs. According to the Dallas
Feds Texas Retail Sector Survey, retailers perceptions of economic conditions in the retail sector
increased after showing negative sentiment in prior months. The continued expansion in the
services sectors follows the favorable expectations presented by the Dallas Feds month of July
Texas Service Outlook Survey.
The major monthly losses in employment occurred in manufacturing, mining and logging,
information and financial services. Manufacturing employment, with a negative 3.7 percent yearover-year change, continued a year-over-year decline that started in April 2015. Concurrent with
manufacturing employment contracting, the Dallas Feds Manufacturing Outlook Survey remained
in negative territory, suggesting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. Mining and
logging employment continues to fall after reaching a peak in December 2014. The information
sector has consistently down sized over that past decade and maintains that trend.
Houston continued to register a more drastic slowdown in overall employment versus the other
major metros in the state. Surprisingly, even in the presence of dramatically lower oil prices and
drilling activity, total jobs in Houston were still 0.2 percent greater than July 2015.
Job growth in Texas helped to keep the unemployment rate below the national average. Texas
seasonally adjusted unemployment rate equaled to 4.6 percent from 4.5 in June and compared
with a July 4.9 percent rate for the United States. Unemployed insurance claims, which measure
initial applications for unemployment insurance, were down 0.8 percent year-over-year in Texas
and have flattened out. Labor force participation edged down after increasing in prior months, in
accordance with the long-run trend in the U.S. and Texas labor markets of workers leaving the job
market.
Real total private employee hourly earnings fell 0.4 percent year-over-year, registering a lower
growth rate than the nation since August 2015. Real earnings in Texas have not consistently
remained above January 2007 levels on a seasonally adjusted basis because of the fall in the energy
industry and loss of energy related jobs. Additionally, nominal earnings have not kept pace with
inflation. Real earnings for Austin increased above January 2007 levels while Dallas, Fort Worth,
and San Antonio have not. Houston real earnings have decreased over the past year as a response
to the energy decline.
Increases in the Consumer Price Index have been suppressed and remain low in the U.S. as a
consequence of low oil prices and a strong dollar that has made imports cheaper. The Consumer
Price Index for Dallas continued to post a positive value of 1.3 percent year-over-year after
registering negative rates in the majority of 2015. The Consumer Price Index for Houston year-overyear change was 1.6 percent in June.
Because of weakening global demand, lower oil prices, and a stronger dollar, U.S. and Texas
exports of all commodities and manufactured goods fell in July year-over-year with Texas exports
falling for the fourth straight month. Both the U.S. and Texas traded value of the U.S. dollar
appreciated in July and June, respectively. The dollar value reflects the appreciation of the U.S.
dollar with respect to world currencies, making U.S. and Texas exports more expensive to foreign
buyers.

6

Economic Activity

Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index

(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
140
135
120
Business Cycle Index
115
Leading Index (Right Axis)
110
125
105
120
100
115
95
110
90
105
85
100
80
95
75
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
130

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information see Texas Business Cycle Index.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Major Metros Business Cycle Index

(Year-over-Year Percent Change; Index Jan 2007 = 100)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown
San Antonio
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16

Border Metros Business Cycle Index

(Year-over-Year Percent Change; Index Jan 2007 = 100)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
Brownsville-Harlingen
El Paso
Laredo
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16


Manufacturing

Manufacturing Outlook Survey

(Index)
30
20
10
0
-10
United States
Texas
-20
-40
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-30

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information see Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. United States index is adjusted
-50 to be on scale with Texas index.
Housing

110
105
Housing Sales
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
United States
Texas
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
60
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
65
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For more information see Housing Sales.
Sources: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and National Association of Realtors

125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
Major Metros Housing Sales

(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Note: Seasonally adjusted sales reported by MLS and detrended. For more information see Housing Sales.
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

120
115
110
Border Metros Housing Sales

(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
El Paso
Laredo
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
60
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
65

Note: Seasonally adjusted sales reported by MLS and detrended. For more information see Housing Sales.

110
100
Single-Family Housing Construction Permits

(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
United States
Texas
90
80
70
60
50
40
20
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
30

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For more information see Single-Family Housing Construction Permits.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
10

110
100
90
Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits

(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
Austin-Round Rock
80
70
60
50
40
20


110
Border Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits

(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
El Paso
Laredo
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
30

11

12
11
Months of Inventory
(Months)
United States
Texas
10
9
8
7
6
5
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For more information see Months of Inventory.
Major Metros Months of Inventory

(Months)
9
8
7
6
5
4
2
1
Austin-Round Rock
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16

12

Laredo
El Paso
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Border Metros Months of Inventory

(Months)

Housing Opportunity Index (Affordability Index)

(Index)
90
80
70
60
United States
Austin-Round Rock
50
Dallas-Plano-Irving
40
30
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
16
Note: Seasonally Adjusted. For more information see Affordability Index.

Sources: National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo
13

Housing Price Index

(Index Q1 2007=100)
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
United States
Texas
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
16
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information see Housing Price Index.
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Major Metros Housing Price Index

(Index Q1 2007=100)
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
El Paso

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information see Housing Price Index.
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

2013
2014
2015
16
14

Services

Services Sector Outlook Survey

(Index)
50
40
United States
Texas
30
20
10
0
-20
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information see Services Sector Outlook Survey.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale
with Texas index.

Index
Texas Retail Sector

(Index; Year-over-Year Percent Change)
Year-over-Year
50
Percent
25
40
20
30
15
20
10
10
-10
-5
-20
-10
-30
-40
-50
-15
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank
Retail Survey
Retail Sales
(Right Axis)
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-10
Note: Seasonally adjusted and inflation adjusted. For more information see Texas Retail Sector.
Sources: Retail Sector Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Retail Sales from
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
-20
-25
15

Major Metros Retail Sales

(Year-over-Year Percent Change)
80
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
60
40
San Antonio
20
0
-20
-40
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Source: Retail Sales from Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts estimated by Dallas Federal Reserve Bank
Border Metros Retail Sales

15
10
5
0
-5
-10
El Paso
Laredo
-15
-20
-25
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Source: Retail Sales from Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts estimated by Dallas Federal Reserve Bank
2015
16

Energy

Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count
(Count)

(Number of rigs)
1200
(Millions of barrels)
Production of Crude Oil

(Right Axis)
1100
1000
130
Number of Operating Rigs
120
110
100
800
90
700
80
600
70
500
60
400
50
300
40
200
30
100
20
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
900

Note: For more information see Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count.
Sources: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration

$/Barrel

140
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices

($)
Crude Oil
120
$/million BTU
Natural Gas
(Right Axis)
14
12
10
80
60
40
20
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
100

Note: For more information see Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration received from Thomson Reuters

17

Employment

5
4
3
Employment Growth Rate

United States
Texas
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-6
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-5

Note: Seasonally adjusted. July 2016 is preliminary. For more information see Employment Growth Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Major Metros Employment Growth Rate

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land
San Antonio
-2
-3
-4
-6
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-5


18

Border Metros Employment Growth Rate

Laredo
El Paso
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6

Unemployment Rate
(Percent)
11
United States
10
Texas
9
8
7
6
5
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted. July 2016 is preliminary. For more information see Unemployment Rate.
19

Major Metros Unemployment Rate

(Percent)
9
8
7
6
4
3
2
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
San Antonio
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Border Metros Unemployment Rate

(Percent)
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
5
4
El Paso
Laredo
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
20

Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications

140
U.S.
120
Texas
100
80
60
40
20
0
-40
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
-20

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information see Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications.
Source: Department of Labor
Labor Force Participation Rate

(Percent)
67
United States
Texas
66
65
64
62
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
63
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information see Unemployment Rate.

21

Manufacturing Employment
6
4
United States
Texas
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-14

Note: July 2016 is preliminary. For more information see Employment Growth Rate.
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
-18
-20
Major Metros Manufacturing Employment

Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
San Antonio
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-12

22

Border Metros Manufacturing Employment

20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
El Paso
Laredo
-25

10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
-18
-20
Construction Employment
United States
Texas
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-30

23

Real Personal Income

(Year-over-year Percent Change)
12
United States
10
Texas
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
16

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information see Real Personal Income.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Statistics and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Real Personal Income Per Capita

(Year-over-year Percent Change)
8
United States
Texas
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
16
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information see Real Personal Income.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Statistics and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
24

Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings

5
United States
Texas
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-5
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-4

Notes: Inflation adjusted, seasonally adjusted and detrended. July 2016 is preliminary. For more
information see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.
Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings

10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos
-6
Dallas-Plano-Irving
-8
-10
-12

Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-14

25

Border Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings

28
24
20
El Paso
Laredo
16
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
-16
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-12


Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings
25
United States
Texas
20
15
10
5
0
-10
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-5

Notes: Inflation adjusted. July 2016 is preliminary. For more information see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.
26

Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings

35
30
25
20
15
Dallas-Plano-Irving
10
5
0
-5
-15
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-10

Notes: Inflation adjusted. July 2016 is preliminary. For more information see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.
Prices

CPI Inflation Rates (Dallas)

7
6
United States
Dallas
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-3
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-2
Note: For more information see CPI Inflation Rates.

27

CPI Inflation Rates (Houston)

United States
Houston
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-3
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-2
Note: For more information see CPI Inflation Rates.


Trade

35
Exports (All Commodities)

30
United States
25
Texas
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-25
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-20

Note: Adjusted for inflation with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information see Exports.
Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau
28

Manufacturing Exports
35
United States
30
Texas
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-25
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
-20
Note: Adjusted for inflation with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information see Manufacturing Exports.
Texas Exports by Country

(Percent)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Netherlands
Mexico
China
Canada
Brazil
ROW
30
20
10
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Note: For more information see Exports.

2015
thru July
2016
29

Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar

(Index January 2007 = 100)
115
United States
Texas
110
105
100
95
90
80
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
85

Note: For more information see Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
30

MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL

Texas A&M University
2115 TAMU
College Station, TX 77843-2115
http://recenter.tamu.edu
979-845-2031
DIRECTOR
GARY W. MALER
ADVISORY COMMITTEE
RUSSELL CAIN, CHAIRMAN
Port Lavaca
DOUG JENNINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN

Fort Worth
MARIO A. ARRIAGA
Conroe
JACQUELYN K. HAWKINS
Austin
TED NELSON
Houston
DOUG ROBERTS
Austin
KIMBERLY SHAMBLEY
Dallas
RONALD C. WAKEFIELD
San Antonio
C. CLARK WELDER
San Antonio
BILL JONES, EX-OFFICIO
Temple

Out Look For Texas Economy

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Out Look For Texas Economy

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Outlook

About this Report

July 2016 Summary

Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index

Leading Index (Right Axis)

Major Metros Business Cycle Index

Border Metros Business Cycle Index

Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Major Metros Housing Sales

Border Metros Housing Sales

Single-Family Housing Construction Permits

Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits

Border Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits

Major Metros Months of Inventory

Border Metros Months of Inventory

Housing Opportunity Index (Affordability Index)

Note: Seasonally Adjusted. For more information see Affordability Index.

Housing Price Index

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II

Major Metros Housing Price Index

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II

Services Sector Outlook Survey

Texas Retail Sector

Major Metros Retail Sales

Border Metros Retail Sales

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

Production of Crude Oil

Number of Operating Rigs

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices

Employment Growth Rate

Major Metros Employment Growth Rate

Border Metros Employment Growth Rate

Major Metros Unemployment Rate

Border Metros Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications

Labor Force Participation Rate

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information see Unemployment Rate.

Major Metros Manufacturing Employment

Border Metros Manufacturing Employment

Real Personal Income

Real Personal Income Per Capita

Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings

Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos

San Antonio-New Braunfels

Border Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings

Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings

CPI Inflation Rates (Dallas)

Note: For more information see CPI Inflation Rates.

CPI Inflation Rates (Houston)

Note: For more information see CPI Inflation Rates.

Exports (All Commodities)

Texas Exports by Country

Note: For more information see Exports.

Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar

MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL

DOUG JENNINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN

You might also like