Daily Market Reflection

13th October 2016

Market Outlook

USDINR

The Rupee extended its gains for the second trading day today
against the US currency, surging by another 15 paise to close at
66.53 per dollar on hopes of more foreign capital inflows. Sustained
foreign fund inflows, weakness of the dollar against other currencies
overseas after last week's softer-than-forecast US jobs data, and a
higher opening in the domestic equity market boosted the rupee
value against the dollar
China's yuan fell to its lowest level in six years early Monday,
breaching a key psychological threshold, before erasing the losses
on the first day of trading after a week-long holiday.
Fundamental News
Dollar climbs to 11-week peak on rate hike bets; pound
slides.
Pound under pressure, peso surges on Trump trouble.
China's yuan sinks to six-year low, then erases losses.
German exports in August 2016: +9.8% on August 2015.
Aussie holds gains in Asia, yen dips on core machinery
orders.
Currency Future
Currency
Date
Date
% Chg

07-10-16

10-10-16

USDINR

66.8575

66.6750

-0.27%

EURINR

74.5400

74.4925

-0.06%

GBPINR

82.7225

82.9300

+0.25%

JPYINR

64.5350

64.5200

-0.02%

Event Calendar (13th October 2016)

Time
Currency Event

Forecast

Previou
s

5:20 am

JPY

Bank Lending y/y

2.0%

2.0%

10:00 am

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity

m/m

-0.2%

0.3%

11:30 am

EUR

German Final CPI m/m

0.1%

0.1%

6:00 pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

252K

249K

6:00 pm

USD

Import Prices m/m

0.1%

-0.2%

Tentative

GBP

BOE Gov Carney

Speaks

Reference Rate
Currency Date
07-10-16
USDINR
66.7875
EURINR
74.2744
GBPINR
83.2373
JPYINR
64.3000

Date
10-10-16
66.5856
74.4027
82.4796
64.5600

%
Change
-0.30%
+0.17%
-0.91%
+0.40%

Currencies vs $
Currency
Close
(5:00p
m)
Rupee
66.5338

Prev
Close

%
Chg

66.6850

Dollar Index

97.6500

97.7200

Euro

1.1036

1.1050

0.22%
0.07%
0.12%

Global Commodities
Commodit Close
Prev.Clos % Chg
y
e
Gold
1256.1 1257.35
-0.09%
2
Silver
17.54
17.53
+0.05%
Crude
50.92
50.88
+0.07%
Copper
2.1763 2.1768
-0.02%
OUR PREVIOUS CALLS UPDATE
Intraday super star
Date Currenc Entry
y
06/10 EURINR 74.900
0
Trifid special
Date Currenc Entry
y
07/1 GBPINR 84.770
0
0

Exit

P/L

74.780
0

2400

Exit

P/L

84.470
0

12000

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Overview
USDINR

EURINR

USDINR opened on a lower note after the fall so seen

near resistance in the last session.

EURINR although opened at higher note but dragged

during the session and closed on a flat to negative note.

On daily charts, it is observed that continuous resistance

is taken near 100 day EMA and if it holds below 66.6000
then bears extend then it may move towards deeper
supports.

It again took support around the crucial zone of 74.3700

and closed above it. Selling pressure can be seen below
it while 74.7000-74.9000 is seen as immediate resistance
range.

R1
66.8000

R1

R2

S1

S2

74.6000

74.8000

74.3000

74.1000

R2
66.9000

S1
66.5000

S2
66.4000

GBPINR

JPYINR

GBPINR moved in a tight range for the entire session

without much volatility.

JPYINR opened gap up but gradually lost the momentum

throughout the session and closed flat.

If the pair is able to sustain above 83.0000 mark then it

may move towards the resistance of 83.6000 while
82.6000 may act as immediate support for it.

On daily charts, 100 day EMA of 64.4050 is acting as

strong support surpassing which can result in major sell
offs. On higher side, 64.8000-65.0000 is seen as
resistance range.

R1
83.1000

R1
64.7000

R2
83.3000

S1
82.8000

S2
82.6000

R2
64.9000

S1
64.3000

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S2
64.1000

Intraday Super Star

(Premium Section)

GBPINR although moved in a range throughout the session but closed weak and the trend of the counter remains
bearish. Hence, selling pressure is expected to continue in the coming session.
SELL BELOW 82.8000 TARGETS 82.6800/82.5600 SL 83.0000.

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Trifid Special
(Premium Section)

JPYINR on daily charts found support around the crucial level of 100 day EMA and a double top pattern is also seen as
shown in the chart above. If the pair holds below the level so given then sell offs could be seen.
SELL BELOW 64.4000 TARGET 64.1000 SL 64.9000.

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