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Food Policy Action 2016

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Food Policy Action
Lake Research Partners
Survey in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District
October 11, 2016

Lake Research Partners conducted a telephone survey using professional interviewers and
interactive voice response (IVR) from September 30 to October 3, 2016. The survey reached a
total of 439 likely 2016 voters in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District. The sample was drawn from a
voter file and respondents were screened to be both registered and likely to vote in the November
2016 election. The margin of error for the sample is +/-4.7%.
Voters divide nearly evenly in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District. Forty-eight (48) percent of voters
support Republican Rod Blum and 46 percent support Democrat Monica Vernon. The two-point
margin is within the margin of error. Support for each candidate differs notably across age and
gender lines.

Women support Vernon 55 percent to 41 percent for Blum, while men support Blum 56
percent to 37 percent for Vernon.

Voters under 50 support Vernon 51 percent to 41 percent for Blum, while voters over 50
support Blum 53 percent to 44 percent for Vernon.

By party, Blum has more consolidated support among registered Republicans (95 percent
support), while Vernon has room to grow among registered Democrats (84 percent
support). Vernon leads unaffiliated voters with 49 percent to 39 percent for Blum and 11
percent who remain undecided.

Voters find messaging on Monica Vernon’s support for nutrition assistance very convincing:
“Monica Vernon will stand up for the most vulnerable among us. She supports food and nutrition
assistance for children, seniors, and people who recently lost their job. In Congress, she will fight
to protect the food and nutrition assistance that make sure no Iowan goes hungry.”

Overall, 56 percent of voters find this message convincing, 32 percent very convincing.

Eighty-eight (88) percent of registered Democrats and 63 percent of unaffiliated voters
find this message convincing, while 18 percent of registered Republicans find it
convincing.

Sixty-four (64) percent of women find this message convincing compared to 48 percent of
men.

After voters hear statements, support flips as 48 percent support Democrat Monica Vernon and
45 percent support Republican Rob Blum. Vernon increases her margins most notably among
women (from 55/41 to 57/36), voters under 50 (from 51/41 to 55/36), and unaffiliated voters (from
49/39 to 53/34).