American Association for Public Opinion Research

How Economic Growth Begins: A General Theory Applied to Japan

Author(s): E. E. Hagen
Reviewed work(s):
Source: The Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 22, No. 3, Special Issue on Attitude Research in
Modernizing Areas (Autumn, 1958), pp. 373-390
Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research
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How Economic GrowthBegins:

A General Theory
Applied to Japan*
BY E. E.

HAGEN

MANY WORDS
have been uttered, and a few universitydepartments
or
merged,to theend of integrating
anthropology,
sociology,
and psychology,
two of thethree.The departmental
mergershave not been highlysuccessful;
thedisciplineshave remaineddistinct.
I suggestthatmergerofthedisciplines
will not occur except as they have occasion to attack problemsthat are
solvableonlyby theirintegrated
efforts.
I have been studyinga problemwhichin my view requiresjust such an
integrated
attackforitssolution.In yieldingto solutionit maystimulatenew
insightsin sociologicaland psychological
theory.1
The pro'blemis, how does
economicgrowthbegin?
By e-conomic
growthI mean continuing
risein per capitaincome.Continuing risein per capitaincomeis due to continuingprogressin techniquesof
production.Beforethe last two centuries,
continuingtechnicalprogresswas
unknownin the world,and even today,in many countriesof the world,
methods of productionremain virtuallyunchanged from generationto
generation.But since 1750,a transition
fromstaticor veryslowlychanging
technologyto continuing(rapid) technicalprogresshas clearlyoccurred
among culturallyrelatedpeoplesin WesternEurope,North America,Australia,and New Zealand, and also in Japanand the Soviet Union. Recent
economicprogressin severalLatin Americancountriessuggeststhat the
transitionhas also been accomplishedthere. Economic growth is being
How does the
earnestlysoughtelsewhere,but not everywhere
successfully.
transition
to continuingtechnological
fromstatictechnology
progressoccur?
In the past economistshave tendedto regardprogressas "natural,"and
to assumethatfailureto progressis due to some peculiareconomicbarrier,
such as the (assumed) necessityat a low level of incometo use all of the
* This paper is a partialproductof a researchprojectat theCenterforInternational
Studies,
Foundation.Dr. Hagen is VisitingProfessor
M.I.T., financedby a grantfromthe Rockefeller
of Economicsat the Center.
aspectsI regardanthropology
sincein itstheoretical
theory,
1 I do not referto anthropological
as a branchof sociology.

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374

PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY

country'soutputfor consumption,so that therecan be no saving out of

whichto producetheequipmentneededforprogress.Non-economictheories
tendedto run in termsof some key factor,such as the presenceor absence
of the "ProtestantEthic." It is now apparent,I think,that these special
explanationsare eitherincorrector inadequate,and thatwe need to regard
to continuingtechnologifromstatictechnology
theproblemofthetransition
cal progressas one case of thegeneralproblemof social change.Our analysis will thenbe moregeneral.In a sense it will also be more complicated,
thoughif we are successfulwe shall be able to subsumea numberof types
of changeunderone generalheading.It is the purposeof thispaperto state
to economicgrowthin a
some elementsof a generaltheoryof thetransition
and thento sumway,withoutextendedargument,
briefand ratherarbitrary
marize brieflythe historyof Japanfrom1600to 1868as an exampleof the
operationoftheforcesdiscussedin thetheory.
I
For economicgrowth,technicaladvances,largeand small,mustbe widespread and recurrentin the economy.Growthcannotcome about because
of the introduction
of a few large centralprojects.It is sometimesthought
in kind for low-income
the
of
that
problem technicalprogressis different
since the West had to
for
the
West,
countriesat presentfromwhat it was
invent new techniques,while presentlow-incomecountriescan simply
adopt those alreadyin existencein the West. This viewpointis incorrect.
onlyin
culturediffers
The problemof adaptationof a methodto a different
degreefromthe problemof inventionde novo. As a simpleexampleof this
the shovelintoAsian countries.In
fact,considertheproblemof introducing
digging
Westernhandstheshovelis vastlysuperiorto theAsian broad-plated
hoe formanydiggingpurposes.Yet the digginghoe persistsin Asian countries,becausethe shovelis not a practicaltool forbarefootedworkers.Its introductioninvolves(1) productionof specializedshoes designedso that a
people used to going barefootcan wear themand work in comfort;or (2)
adaptationof the shovelso thatit can be forcedintotheearthwiththebare
foot withoutcuttingthe sole of the foot,yet remaina simplesurfacethat
will releaseits load of earthreadily;or (3) a generalrisein the levelof living of the countryso thatthe wearingof shoesbecomescommon.None of
can be accomplishedeasily.
thesethreepossibilities
This homelyexampleappliesgenerally.Only lack of spacepreventsciting
manymore complexexamples.The Westerntechnicianwho speaks condescendinglyof "backwardAsians" may himselfgo home a nerve-wracked
failurewhen he triesto applyto an Asian factorythe methodsof managerelawhereWesternconventionsof interpersonal
mentthatprovedefficient
invention.
tionsprevail.To repeat,adaptationis

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HOW ECONOMIC GROWTH BEGINS

375

PERSONALITY STRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

One of the conditions-fortechnologicalprogress,therefore,

is thata considerablenumberof theindigenouspeopleof a countryshallbe technological
innovators,
thatis, shall devotetheirenergieseffectively
to improvement
in
methodsof production.Innovationin general,and specifically
technological
innovation,requirescertainpersonality
characteristics.
But one cannotsafely
assume the widespreadpresencein any given countryof thesepersonality
characteristics-different
culturesbreed different
"nationalcharacters"-and
it is worthwhileto note what characteristics
of personality
structure
are in
point.Prominentamong themis, of course,fairlyhigh intelligence,
which
is not culturallyacquiredin any simplesense.But intelligenceis not useful
in distinguishing
among countries,since it is reasonableto assumethatthe
distribution
of the inheritedfactorin intelligencein any one countryis
roughlyequivalentto thatin any other.The personality
characteristics
that
are in pointmay be summarizedunderthreeheads: worldview,needs,and
values.2
The term"worldview" is takenfromanthropology.
It refersto theindividual's assumptions,usually unconscious,concerningthe nature of the
physicaland social universeand his relationshipto it. The aspectof world
view whichis mostin pointhere is the person'sassumptionconcerninghis
relationshipto the physicaluniverse.Does he regardthe natureof the universe as such that by interveningdirectly-e.g.,devisingnew methodsof
performing
a process-he can affectthe resultsof theprocess?In thetypical
Americanmiddle or lower class home,forexample,the man of the family
takesforgrantedthatif the electriccord on an applianceburnsout he can
to the
cut offthe cord,stripoffthe insulation,and make a new attachment
appliance.The woman of the house,however,typicallyregardsan electrical
apparatusas somethingmysteriousand dangerouswith which she is inof the
capableof meddling.This is notbecauseof theintellectual
superiority
worldview,bredintothe womanwhen
male,but simplybecausea different
she was young,persiststhroughouther life. A world view assumingthe
in physicalprocessesis
capabilityof interveningdirectlyand successfully
innovation.
essentialfortechnical
A person'svalues are his conceptsof what is desirable.More accurately,
in an individualor
"a value is a conception,explicitor implicit,distinctive
theselectionfrom
of a group,of the desirablewhichinfluences
characteristic
available modes,means,and ends of action."3The most importantvalues
2 These threecategoriesof personality
characteristics
match in a roughway Parsons'categorizationof a person's orientationtoward a situationinto the three modes of cognitive,
parallelism,however.The
There is no logicalor functional
and evaluativeorientation.
cathectic,
whereasI believethatParsons'treatment
are coordinate,
characteristics
threetypesof personality
as coordinatewiththe othertwo is inappropriate.
of evaluativeorientation
3 Clyde Kluckhohn,in Toward a General Theory of Action (Parsons and Shils, eds.),
Mass., 1954,p. 395.
Cambridge,

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376

PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY

thataffectthe tendencyto seek an innovationalcareerare probablythe following: (1) The feelingthatpersonalachievement

in life,ratherthansocial
position,determinesone's meritand the respectdue from one's fellows.
(2) One's attitudeon whatoccupationis good,forexample,that"business"or
scienceare as worthyas lifeon theland or humanisticactivity.(3) The feeling that manual-technical
activityis pleasant and interesting.(4) Closely
related,the attitudethat knowledgeof the operationof the physicalworld
is interesting
and important.(5) The acceptanceof work which soils one's
skin or one's clothing.In each of thesefivecases,possessionof the value or
group of values indicatedis conduciveto technologicalinnovation.Absence
of the attitudeor possessionof an opposedone inhibitsit.
The pertinent
is one thatcausesan individualunconsciously
need-complex
to regardhimselfas havinga role in lifeindependentof and somewhatdetached fromother persons-in particular,detached from but not hostile
to theparentalimagethathe has introjected-andin thatrole,to enjoyfacing
a problemand turninghis abilitiesto solvingit. Or, an oppositeneed-complex causeshim unconsciously
to rejecta roleforhimself,to panic at psychological detachmentfromothers,especiallyfromthe father-image
he carries,
and to seek in others'companyor others'power solutionof or protection
fromproblems.4A favorableneed-complex(the former)is conduciveto
innovationin some field,but not necessarilyin technology.Given a needcomplexfavorableto innovation,it is apparentlya person'svalues thatdeterminein whatfieldhe will exerthis energies.
The psychologicalneeds that are most importantin the complex are
six: need forachievement,
forautonomy,foraggression,
fordominance,for
omit
affiliation,
and for dependence.5For brevity,
psychologists
customarily
the prepositionand refersimplyto need achievement(or n ach) and so
forth.Such needsare as realcomponents
of theselfas needsfornourishment,
forair,or forprotection
fromexcessiveheat or cold. The individualpossessing a certainneed feelsrestless,uncomfortable,
apprehensive,
or anxiousin increasingdegree of the need he feels-if he is engaged in a kind of
activity,
overtor mental,thatviolatesthe need, and feelscomfortand satis&
factionif he is engagedin one thatsatisfiesit. (He may of coursehave conneeds and be unableto feelcomfortable
flicting
in any situation.)
is meantthe need to attacknew problemsthatare
By need achievement
4 For empiricalevidenceof thesedifferences,
see page 379 below.
5 See Henry A. Murrayand Associates,Explorationsin Personality,
New York, Oxford

University
Press,1938, forthestandarddiscussionof need structure.
The definitions
of needsare
not rigidlystandardized,
and thosegivenbelow are not verballyidenticalwiththosein Murray.
It should be noted that the pertinentneed structureis much more complex than that
here.Undoubtedly
presentedforconvenience
everyneed of an individualaffects
in somedegree
his capacityfor innovation.Those discussedhere seem in preliminary
analysisto be those
centrally
relevant.

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HOW ECONOMIC GROWTH BEGINS

377

subjectto solutionbytheexercise
of intellect
or ability(i.e.,notgambler's
choices),thusrepeatedly
testing
theability
to succeed.It involves,
pleasure
at
thinking
newthoughts,
discovering
newways.Need autonomy
is theneed
to be independent
of others,
to resistcoercionor restriction
of actionsor
thoughts,
toavoidconformity,
to do whatonewantswithout
regardtowhat
othersmaythink.Need aggression
is theneedto be aggressive,
to attack
otherpersons
in deed,word,orthought.
A personwithhighneedaggression,
ifhe is inhibited
frombeingaggressive
himself,
takespleasurein witnessing
aggression
byothers.
For example,
he takesmorepleasurein readingcrime
newsor newsof sportscontests
thandoes a personwho has low need
aggression.
Need dominance
is theneedto be a leader,to pressone'spoint
of view,to influence
othersto act as one desires,
to controlothers.Need
affiliation
is theneedtopleasefriends
andtohavetheiraffection,
tocooperate
withthem,to gain sympathetic
response
fromthemto one'sthinking
and
attitudes.
Need dependence
is theneedto followa leaderin deed,thought,
andemotion,
toholda belieforan attitude
onlywhensomeone
elsehasindicatedthatitis properto do so.A personwithhighneeddependence
findsit
comfortable
to perform
routine
or repetitive
tasks,sincetheneedto makea
choicewithout
knowingitsacceptability
is thusminimized.
As thedefinitions
oftheseneedssuggest,
a personwillbe an effective
and
consistent
innovator
onlyif he has fairly
need
highneedachievement
and
autonomy,
andfairly
lowneedaffiliation
andneeddependence.
The caseconcerning
needaggression
is notas clear.It maybe suggested
that
tentatively
theinnovator
needshighneedaggression,
butone keptundercontrol
bya
balanceof otherneedsso thathe can workeffectively
withotherpersons.
A personwithverylowneedaggression
willnotasserthimself
againstother
whereasone withneedaggression
willbe
persons,
thatis poorlycontrolled
unableto workwithotherpersons,
andindeedwillbe unableto workeffectively
alonebecausehismentalactivity
willbe swamped
byhisrages(which
involvmaybe unconscious
andnotovert).Fortypesofinnovational
activity
ingtheorganization
ofotherpersons,
is muchmoreimporneeddominance
tantthanfortypesinvolving
onlyindividual
creativity.
Freudianand post-Freudian
studyof the unconscious
has indicated
thatthe formation
of personality
structure
beginsveryearlyin infancy,
andthatone'sbasicconstellations
arefullyformed
at abouttheage ofeight,
thoughof courseall laterexperiences,
and especially
thosethrough
adolesIt is imcence,reinforce
orconfuse
thesecomponents
ofpersonality
structure.
possibleto summarize
whatis knownof thisprocessof personality
briefly
formation.
Let me merely
notethatone'sneedsaretremendously
influenced
and anxieties
bythetensions
(or absenceofthem)in thehomeduringthe
earlyyears.Specifically,
theyare tremendously
influenced
by theemotions
feltand attitudes
and unconsciously
evidenced
consciously
byone'smother

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378

PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY

and othersas in the earlieryearsone tacklesthe hundredsof new problems

which one faces-learningto crawl,to walk, to controlone's bowel movementsand urination,to hold thingsand manipulatethemas in eatingand
dressingoneself,to face otherindividualsand deal with them,and so on.
During these same years,and notablyduringthe "genital"yearsof three
to six, in the simplestpsychologicalcircumstances
one identifieswith the
parentof thesame sex and acquireshis values.But one mayrejectthevalues
of a psychologically
unsatisfying
parent;in theextremecase one mayidentify
with the parentof the oppositesex (presumablyin a desperateattemptto
gain acceptanceby a rejectingparentof the same sex); and in variouscircumstancesand to varyingdegreeswill model oneselfafterotherpersons
withinone's environment.
Values,needs,and worldviewthusacquiredearly
in lifeare singularlydifficult
to changeby consciousknowledgeor rational
in laterlife.
considerations
PERSONALITY STRUCTURE IN PRE-INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY

Perhapsthe most importantfactconcerninga pre-industrial,

technically
staticsocietythatis pertinentto the theoryof economicgrowthis thatpersonalitystructure
conduciveto innovationis conspicuously
scarce.
A pre-industrial
societymay be dividedsociologicallyinto peasantsand
the elite.For reasonswhichneed not be summarizedhere,peasantsare not
apt to exercisegreatinitiativein technological
progress,
and attention
maybe
concentrated
on theelite.The termrefershereto theindividualswho provide
leadershipin the society:the landed group, chieftains,
or militaryleaders
who controlthecountry,
togetherwiththeprofessional
personnelof various
typesand the bureaucracywhich surroundand complementthem. The
power of the elitein a pre-industrial
societycomes fromtheircontrolover
the land, the main sourceof income,and overpeople. Their statusdepends
on theirposition,not on achievement.
It is important
fortheirstatusand for
theirimage of themselvesthattheybe differentiated
fromthe membersof
thelowerclass,who labor.
From theseconsiderations,
the culturesof peasantsocietieshave evolved
and transmitted
to successivegenerations
a set of values,togetherwithconsonantneeds and world view, remarkablyantipatheticto technologicalinnovation.The eliteare stronglyattachedto the land. They look upon trade
and on "business"or industryas grubby,disagreeable,
with some contempt,
pedestrianactivity-withan aversionsomewhatlike that with which an
Americanin the"temperancebelt"looks on theoccupationof saloonkeeper.
They regard"dirty"work as undignified,
improper.Consonantwith these
values,theyhave respectforhumanistic-intellectual
life,but are uninterested
in science,and it is remotefromtheirthoughtsthattheyshould intervene
of thephysicalworld,or could do so.
in the functioning

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HOW ECONOMIC GROWTH BEGINS

379

These attitudes
are indicated
by studiesin whatmaybe called"depth
sociology"
in variouspeasantsocieties.
Thesestudiesgiveno directclueto
theneedstructure
of thesocieties'
leaders,
butpsychological
studiesin one
suchsociety
indicatethattheirneedstructure
too is adverseto innovation.
without
Whenpresented
withmaterials
whichpermitted
themto fantasy
evicommunity
leadersin a "traditional"
community
self-consciousness;6
situation
dencedstrong
refusal
to placethemselves
in anyrolein a problem
comor an interpersonal
situation.
Instead,theyuttered
diffuse
unfocused
mentsaboutvariouspossiblemeanings
ofthesituation;
rejected
anyattitude
thatimpliedthenecessity
of problem-solving;
manifested
strongidentificationwitha traditional
father-image;
and in generalevidencedthe needs
described
aboveas antipathetic
to innovation.
It is not unreasonable
(but
untilmoreevidenceis availableit is likewisenotnecessary)
to assumethat
thisneedstructure
is typicaloftheeliteof all traditional
forit is
societies,
consistent
withtheirvaluesand socialposition.
These comments
concerning
valuesand worldview,and inferentially
thoseconcerning
needsas well,applyevento eliteleadersof pre-industrial
countries
who consciously
and earnestly
desireeconomicdevelopment
for
theircountry.
Theywantit,buttypically
theywantit by"magic."That is,
theywantit to happenautomatically
through
theestablishment
bythestate
of large"modern"enterprises;
theythemselves
do not anticipate
devoting
theirenergies
to dirtywork.(No moraljudgmentis implied;it maybe
notedthatthewriter
andthetypical
readerofthispapersharein considerable
degreea number
ofthevaluesofthepeasantsociety
elite.)
It followsthatiftechnological
progress
is tobegin(and tocontinue)
in a
technologically
staticsociety,
someforcemustintervene
in thetransmission
ofpersonality
structure
fromgeneration
togeneration.
It is notsufficient
that
an occasional
individual
appearhereand therewitha deviantpersonalitywithdifferent
valuesand needs.For the occasionaldeviantwill be suppressedbythecensureof society.
His lifeviolatesacceptedvalues,whereit
doesnotthreaten
he willbe isolatedpsychologically,
even
them.As a result,
hisenThe weightof socialdisapproval
thoughnotphysically.
mayinhibit
hisobtaining
in newendeavors,
ergies;it willcertainly
prevent
cooperation
and willprevent
emulation
of his activity.
If economic
growthis to begin,
it is therefore
arisewhichinculcates
necessary
thata situation
a groupof
facedbya theory
of
personswithnew valuesand needs.A majorproblem
is to explainhowthiscomesabout.
economic
growth
THE PROCESS OF CHANGE

theimmediate
to makeanysuggestions
I shallnotattempt
concerning
in response
to generation
ofpersonality
mechanism
changefromgeneration
6 Thematicapperception
tests.

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380

PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY

to changein thecultureand in socialrelationships.

I shallrefrain,
notmerely
for lack of space, but because this no-man's-landbetweensociologyand
psychologyis the darkestAfricaof the social sciences,and concerningthe
processsinvolvedonlythe mostgeneralspeculationscould be offered.
I shall
howeverdiscussthe sociologyinvolved.That is, I shall indicatethe social
conditionswhich,circumstantial
evidencestronglysuggests,bringabout the
requisitechangesin personality
structure.
For convenience,I shall advance
the sociologicalhypotheses
involvedin the guise of five"laws." They representan attemptto generalizefromempiricalobservations
notpresentedhere.
Their justification
here mustreston the degreeto which theyforma consistentand plausiblesystemof explanation,and thedegreeto whichtheyare
consistent
withthefactsof Japanesehistorysummarizedbelow.
Firstis thelaw of groupsubordination.
It statesthatmajorsocialchange,
includingthetypeof socialchangebeingdiscussedhere,will comeaboutonly
if some groupin the societyregardsitselfas "subordinated."
The termsubordinatedis here used in a psychologicalsense; no legal subordination
is
necessarilyinvolved.The group must feel itself"looked down upon" or
sociallydiscriminated
againstby the dominantgroups in the society,and
mustfeelthatthisattitudeis improper.This is by no meansthe same thing
as "thenaturaldesireof everyindividualto rise."There probablyis no such
naturaldesire.When the feudal systemof WesternEurope or the caste
systemof India was at its height,there undoubtedlywere thousandsor
millionsof individualsin lowlypositionsin societywho tooktheirstatusfor
grantedand feltno psychological
senseof subordination.
What is necessary
is thatthe groupshall feelthatits positionis inappropriate
and improper.
I suggestthatthisfeelingof subordination
on the part of a group may
come about in any of at leastthreeways.First,throughsome historicaldevelopment-forexample,militaryor politicalconquest-anothergroupmay
have imposeditselfupon the group in question,thus displacingit to a less
dominantor lowersocialpositionthanit occupiedbefore.Secondly,a group
migratingto anothercountrywill probablyfinditselfnot accordedin the
new societya statusto whichit is accustomedand whichit feelsis proper.
Third, a group,may have risenin economicpower,for example,through
tradingand bankingoperationsin a pre-industrial
society,and over a long
to itseconomicpower.
periodmayfinditssocialacceptancenotproportionate
Next is thelaw of rejectionof values.A subordinated
group,consciously
or unconsciously
theattitudeof the dominantgrouptowardit,will
resenting
tend to rejectthe values of the dominantgroup. If the dominantor subordinatinggroupis a groupfromthe outside,withnew values,the subordinated group will cling the more desperatelyand compulsivelyto its traditional values. This is clearlythe situationin a numberof colonial and
ex-colonialcountries.On the otherhand, if the subordinating
group holds
traditionalvalues, the subordinatedgroup will tend to rejectthose values.

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HOW ECONOMIC GROWTH BEGINS

381

The rejectionmay lead the subordinated

individualsin any of severaldirections.If thecontroloverthemby thesubordinating
groupis so completeand
strongthatpositivereactionon theirpartis hopeless,theymay relapseinto
apathy,normlessness,
anomie. Enslaved groups have oftendone so. They
mayengagein armedrebellion.They maymigrate.Seekingto consolethemselveswithrewardsand dignityafterdeathwhichtheycan no longerattain
in thislife,theymay attachgreatemotionalimportanceto a new religion.
There probablywill be some changein theirreligiousbeliefsor practicein
any case,sincetheywill findit necessary
to projecttheirnew needsor values
intotheirreligion.They may turnto a studyof philosophyor science,seeking in an understanding
of the natureof the universethatmasterywhichis
deniedthemin theexternalworld.And, finally,
if theexternalcircumstances
of the societyand of the time are such as to make it probablethatby economicprowesstheycan attainincreasedpowerand a base forrestoring
their
social status,theymay turnto technologicalinnovation.
Third is the law of social blockage.The subordinatedgroup will reject
old values,and act in deviantways,onlyif traditionalchannelsof advance
are blockedto it. To the extentthatby achievementin traditionalfieldse.g., chivalry,traditionallearning,or warfare-the individualsof a subordinatedgroupcan hope realistically
to regainacceptablyhighstatusin the
centralcirclesof society,theyare apt to retain(or adopt) its values.To the
extentthattheycan regainaccessto the traditionalchannelsof risein status
by temporary
activityoutsidethe preferred
channels-forexample,can buy
theirway intofull acceptancein the landed class by a temporary
careerin
trade7-deviancewill be short-circuited.
In a sense,statementof this principle in additionto the law of groupsubordination
is redundant,sinceif the
indicatedchannelsof rise exist,the group is perhapsnot properlytermed
subordinated.
However,it maybe well to notethisaspectof the situationas
a separate"law", forthe sake of clarity.
The fourthlaw is the law of group protection.
Whereasa deviantindividual is subjectto the psychologicaland social censureof his society,if the
entiregroupof whichhe is a memberhas adoptednew valueshe maybehave
in new ways and be protectedfromthe censureof the largersocietyby the
approvalof his entiresmallergroup. This is one of the two reasonswhy
innovationor othermajorsocialchangerequiresthesubordinatechnological
tionof a group,ratherthanmerelyof isolatedindividuals.(The otherreason
is thatcontinuingreasonablyrapid technologicalprogressrequiresthe concomitantactivityof a considerablenumberof individualsratherthan of an
occasionalindividualhereand there.)
The fifthand finallaw is the law of non-alienleadership.A societywill
7 Concerningthis influencein China, see Marion Levy, Jr.,"Contrasting
Factorsin the
Modernizationof China and Japan,"in Economic Growth:Brazil, India, Japan (Kuznets,
Moore,and Spengler,eds.), Durham,N. C., 1955.

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382

PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY

not enterupon economicgrowthunlessthe societyas a whole followsthe

progress,
lead of thedeviantgroupwhichhas begun successfultechnological
so that continuingtechnologicalprogressbecomeswidespread.This it will
not do if the groupis so alien thatits valuesand practices,preciselybecause
theyare its values and practices,are rejectedby the "in-group,"thatis, the
largersociety.This is no doubtthereasonwhythe economicand intellectual
leadershipof Jewshas in manysocietiesnotbeen followedby therestof the
society.This is probablyalso the reasonwhyno colonialsocietyhas entered
progresswhileit was a colony,and indeedup
upon continuingtechnological
to thepresenttimein worldhistorynot forone hundredyearsor moreafter
but India in itscomplex
India is a possibleexception,
it becameindependent.
and evidencedtendhistorypossessedmultiplecases of groupsubordination,
beforeit becamea Britishcolony.Only
progress,
enciestowardtechnological
if theinnovatinggroupis a valued partof the societywill the societyfollow
its lead, and enterupon widespreadcontinuingtechnologicalprogressand
henceeconomicgrowth.
fashion.A more
For brevity,I have statedthese"laws" in an either-or
accuratestatementwould indicatethatthe influenceof each is a matterof
degree.The greaterthe degreeto whichthe indicatedsituationprevails,the
morefavorableit is foreconomicgrowth.
THE IMPORTANCE OF EXTERNAL CIRCUMSTANCES

In brief,then,if historicaldevelopmentscreate a subordinatedsocial

group has traditionalvalues,if the externalcirgroup,if the subordinating
cumstancesare such as to make economicinnovationa promisingroad to
the regainingof status,and if the subordinatedgroup,which innovates,is
favorablyvalued in the society,theneconomicgrowthis apt to begin.The
meritcomment.They include,first,the presenceof a
externalcircumstances
and technicalknowledgeso thatfrequentfurther
base of scientific
sufficient
base has existedin the
innovationis possible.It may be said thata sufficient
West sincethe "firstphysicalsynthesis"of Galileo and Newton,8and that
thisbase,now greatlyaugmented,is availableat presentto any societyin the
worldthatis motivatedto seek it out. The existencewithinthesocietyof scientificand technicalknowledgeis in parta cause,in parta result,of a view
of selfas able to operateon the physicaluniverse.The secondis the availabilityof capitalforuse in the deviantventures.In generalthisinvolvesthe
developmentovera considerablepriorperiodof timeof a tradingclass.The
are such thatit
values of the landed class,so long as it is not subordinated,
willnotsaveto investin new technology.
freedomto permitdeviant
socio-political
Third, theremustbe sufficient
themore
the
the
repression,
activity.
Or, to restatethis, greater socio-political
8 AlfredNorthWhitehead,"The FirstPhysicalSynthesis,"
in Essaysin Scienceand Philosophy,New York, 1948.

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HOW ECONOMIC GROWTH BEGINS

383

intenseand widespreadwill have to be thediscontent

beforeit can surgeinto
action.The greaterthe diversity
of interests
in the polity,theless forcefulis
repressionapt to be. To the degreethatchurchand stateare separatedin
sucha way thatthechurchis nottheunqualifiedsupporter
of traditionalism,
to thedegreethattownshave developedwithinterests
at variancewiththose
of the landed class,to the degreethat "individualism"and the patternsof
interpersonal
relationshipthat Parsons termsuniversalismand specificity
have developed-to thesedegreesless tensionneed be builtup forthetransior
tion to proceed.In societieswhichare politicallymorenearlymonolithic,
have lesserdiversity
of interests
to play againsteach other,overthrow
of the
government
may be a necessarypartof theprocess.England is of coursean
exampleof thefirstsetof conditions,
Japanof the second.
Finally,the morefavorabletheeconomicsituationis, themoreconducive
it is to technologicalprogress.The importanceof the emergenceof some
special economicopportunity
should not be overstressed;
in virtuallyevery
national society,the opportunity
of economic gain throughfairlysimple
technological
innovationexists.But the formation
of a nationalsocietyis an
importantrelevantcondition.Where economicrelationships
are largelycircumscribedby the local community,
even thougha nationalstateexistsin
name,economicopportunity
is likewisegreatlycircumscribed.
It should be notedin conclusionthatthe principlesstatedabove are advancedwiththe assertionthattheyare as relevantto economicgrowthcentrallycontrolledand led by government
as to growthvia privateenterprise.
The historyof Russia,forexample,apparentlyfitsthe social patternstated
above; and thereis suggestiveevidencethatpersonality
structure
of the type
describedabove as favorableto growthis fairlyabundant in the Soviet
Union, and thata greatdeal of "individualinitiative"has been exercisedin
in meetingthe goals of successiveplans.
Sovietfactories
This capsulepresentation,
with littleargumentor adducingof evidence,
of coursecannotdo justiceto the bodyof theorywhichmustbe formulated
and testedif thetransition
fromstatictechnology
to continuingtechnological
progressis to be understood.It summarizesa body of argumentto be presentedelsewhereat much greaterlengthby the writer.The summarystatementof hypotheses
here,however,at leastindicatesan organizedframework
of theory.As such it may be of interest.The historyof Japanduringthe
of the applicationof thattheoretical
Tokugawa era providesan illustration
framework.The applicationis presentedin the remainingsectionof the
paper.
II
taken as markingthe beginningof "moderniThe eventconventionally
Restoration
of 1868,but therootsofmodernizazation"in Japanis theMeiji
tionlie centuriesearlier.For conveniencewe maybegintheaccountwiththe

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384

PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY

seizureof nationalpowerby theTokugawaclan at thebeginning

of the
seventeenth
century.
The socialorderin Japanat thattimemaybe described
looselyas feudal.
Each feudallord(or daimya)headeda hanor clan (notrelatedto himby
blood).Eachhadhisbandofwarriors
orsamurai.
Samurai,
ranging
fromthe
diamy6's
downto somewho livedin conditions
of poverty,
constituted
the
nobility
ofJapan.
Peasantsheldtheirlandfromthedaimyo,
andowedloyalty
to him.Merchants,
no matter
howwell-to-do,
remained
socially
at thelevel
of peasantsand artisans,
if notbelow.A merchant,
evenif wealthy,
could
becomeneither
samurainorevenpeasant,forhe couldbuyneither
noble
His onlyarmed
ranknorland.At theapexofthepyramid
wastheEmperor.
forcewas hispersonal
guard.His powerwas symbolic,
notphysical.
Duringthesixteenth
and earlyseventeenth
centuries,
Portugal,
France,
Holland,and Englandhad beenadvancing
steadily
aroundIndiaintothe
Pacific.Spainhad seizedthePhilippines.
Japanwas sparedonlybecauseshe
was farthest
did
awayand becauseneither
in tradenorin naturalresources
sheseemto offer
ofJapanese
merchant
muchbounty.
Throughthecontacts
sailors,theTokugawawerefullyawareof theapproachof theEuropeans
andoftheirpowerandruthlessness.
The Tokugawadaimy8Ieyasu,withtheaid of a numberof allied(or
Fudai) daimy5's,
had established
hegemony
overall butoutlying
areasof
Japanby1600.In 1603he obtained
fromtheEmperor
thetitleofsh8gun,and
thereafter
theTokugawaexercised
a military
dictatorship.
Duringtheperiod
a series
1603-1651,
Ieyasuandhissuccessors,
Hidetadaand Iemitsu,
executed
of measures
socialmoldand perdesignedto freezeJapanin theexisting
adminisand setup an elaborate
petuatetheruleof theTokugawafamily,
lordsalliedthemtrative
to enforce
them.A numberof additional
system
selveswiththeTokugawain 1603,butmanypowerful
lordsremained
unalliedand potentially
hostile.The Tokugawameasuresweredirected
priin theirinferior
marilyat holdingforever
placethese"outside"
lords,or,to
Whenoccasionor pretext
usetheJapanese
term,
theTozamadaimy5's.
pera
Tozama
the
of
accused
too-powerful
daimy8 disloyalty,
mitted, Tokugawa
fromTokyo,andplacedoneof
executed
him,movedhissontolandsfarther
lands.
theFudaidaimy5's
onhisformer
socialchangewhichmightdisturb
To prevent
thestatusquo,theyissued
a seriesof regulations
forbidding
anyman to changehis occupation.
They
ofa prospering
Tozamadaimy5byrequestcutdowntheeconomic
strength
to assumeresponsibility
fora costly
ing him in the nameof thesho-gun
of a sectionof thenationalhighway,
publicproject-themaintenance
the
fortification
ofa port,etc.
To keeptheEmperorfrombecoming
thefocusof a hostilealliance,the
theirowncourtat Tokyo,they
Tokugawaisolatedhim.Whileestablishing

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HOW ECONOMIC GROWTH BEGINS

385

leftthe Emperorand his courtat Kyoto,surroundedhim, and permitted

approachto him only throughTokugawa intermediaries,
who carriedmessagesin and repliesout.
Among thesedomesticmeasuresto preservetheirpower,"Sankin-Kdtai"
was the capstone.This was the requirementthatthe wife and childrenof
everydaimy5 live in Tokyo under Tokugawa supervision,and that the
daimya himselfmaintainhis residencethere everyother year. The primarypurposeof Sankin-Kotai,of course,was to have hostagesagainstrevolt.
However,in combination
withthedistantlocationof thefourmajorTozama
daimya's-at the distanttip of themain islandof Honshu and on thefarther
islandsof Kyushu and Shikoku-it was also intendedto imposeheavyexpenseson themwhichwould keep thempoor.
The remainingdangerof a breachin the wall, it seemed,was ingressby
foreignpowers.To preventalliance with foreignersby hostilegroups in
Japan,the Tokugawa took stepsto cut offany contactwith them.In 1613,
on the basis of a reportthatCatholicmissionarieswere plottingto involve
Spain in Japan,or fromfear thattheymighttryto do so, Ieyasu ordered
their expulsion.By ruthlesssuppressionbetween 1614 and 1625 he and
Hidetada virtuallyextirpatedabove-boardChristianity
in Japan.
In 1633IemitsuforbadeJapaneseto leave JapanwithoutTokugawa permission,underpenaltyof deathiftheydid so and returned.
Threeyearslater,
he orderedall foreigntradersfromthecountryexcepta fewChinese,Dutch,
and Portuguese.Still laterhe excludedthePortuguese.He closelysupervised
the Chinese and confinedthe Dutch to one tradingpost at Nagasaki, on
KyushuIsland.Thereaftera seriesof ordersbarredall foreigners
fromJapan
excepta limitednumberof Dutch and Chinesetraders,and Dutch scholars.
Iemitsu and his successorskept the Dutch at Nagasaki partlyto obtain
desiredimports,but partlydeliberatelyto have a channel of information
concerningtheWest. A Japaneseofficial
wrote:"To defendourselvesagainst
thebarbarians,
we mustknow themand ourselves:theway to know themis
throughDutch studies."9
By thesemeasuresand othersthe Tokugawa succeededin perpetuating
theirrule until1868; yetwiththesemeasures,paradoxically,
the modernization of Japanmay be said to begin.Sankin-K5taicaused a tremendousincreasein internaltraveland trade.Tokyo, Kyoto,and Osaka became great
to supplythemdeveloped.The continuing
cities,and thecommercenecessary
increasein spendingcaused continuinginflation.With some interruptions,
the two and one-halfcenturiesof the Tokugawa era.
pricesrosethroughout
One importantcause of the intensified
spendingwas the social pressure
on each daimydto indicateby thepomp of his travelto and fromTokyo and
Thomas C. Smith,Political Change and IndustrialDevelopmentin Japan: Government
Enterprses,I868-I88o, Stanford,1955,p. 2.

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386

PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY

thesplendor
of hisestablishment
at Tokyotheexaltedlevelofhisposition.
To meettheirfinancial
needs,thedaimy6'sand theirretainers
strovesucto increasetheproductivity
cessfully
of riceproduction
and also developed
forthenationalmarket.
products
But thedaimyJ's
spentbeyondtheirresources,
howevermuchthesegrew.Theyattempted
to meetthefinancial
strainin threeways:by borrowing
fromthemerchants,
by squeezingthe
samurai,
andbyextorting
morefromthepeasants.
Daimy5's'debtstomerchants
grewcumulatively,
andtheincome,
wealth,
and influence
ofthemerchants
grew.By thelasthalfoftheeighteenth
centurysomeofthemcouldviolatewithimpunity
theprohibition
againstchange
of occupation,
and purchased
fromsamuraior wealthy
peasantstheirpositionsas landedintermediaries.
Somemerchants
procured
fortheir
mobility
daughters.
Whileit wouldhavebeendisgraceful
fora samuraito marry
exceptintothesamuraiclass,a fewwealthy
merchants
in havinga
succeeded
daughter
adoptedby a samurai,to be marriedin a fewmonthsor a few
hoursto anothersamurai,presumably
to thefinancial
benefit
of boththe
husbandand theadopting
Butin spiteoftheirneweconomic
father.
power,
merchants
werestillsocialinferiors,
a placeonlywheretheirfinancial
finding
powermadeit impossible
to pushthemout.
Fromthepeasants,
daimy&'s
increased
duesandlevieson whatever
pretext
theycould.The peasantleveloflivingprogressively
deteriorated
duringthe
last halfof the eighteenth
century
and the firsthalfof the nineteenth.
Peasantrevolts
becamestartlingly
frequent.
themorevividly
Theytestify
to
theextremity
to whichpeasants
hadbeendriven,
sincetheywereso unthinkable in Japanese
culturethaton occasionthepeasantleaderssurrendered
to deathsentence
voluntarily
aftertherevolt,
havingknownin advancethat
whiletheprotest
was imperative,
thisresultfortheleaderswas unavoidable.
As growingtradeand thewidening
webof communication
reducedthe
ofeachfamily
dependence
on thelocalcommunity,
localinstitutions
deteriorated.Wealthypeasants,
a specialclasswhohad cometo holdlandin semiindependence
ofdaimyJ
feudalclaims,
weretheleadersoftheircommunities.
Now theyfoundtheirsocialfunction
In searchfora substitute,
decaying.
theysoughteducation,
education
in government
especially
and war.To becomeeducatedwas a violation
oftheTokugawarulesgoverning
theirplace
in life,buttheyeasilyfoundimpoverished
to teachthem.Thus,by
scholars
the middleof the nineteenth
therewas a considerable
century
groupof
farbeyondtheboundsof theirtraditional
wealthy
peasantsknowledgeable
position.

As thefinancial
ofthedaimy5's
position
worsened,
theyfounditnecessary
thestipends
to reducesuccessively
their
samurai.
theypaid
Successive
laws
werepassedforsamurairelief,
oftheirposition
yetthedeterioration
continued.Someabandoned
theirfeudalposition,
andbecameronin,orwanderers.
in
Someliterally
wenttoa village,ortoone
wandered, rovingbands;others

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HOW ECONOMIC GROWTH BEGINS

387

of the commercialcitiesand, thoughtheymade a livingtherein some way,

were spiritually
wanderers,men who had abandonedtheirdestinedplace in
life.The causeswerenotpurelyeconomic.The mastersof somesamuraihad
been executedby the Tokugawa. Othershad desertedmasterswho favored
theTokugawa.
Ill timeshad come to samurailong beforethisfinancialdistress.Because
of the "pax Tokugawa" theyhad lost theirtraditionalfunction.Some of
fortheirdaimy5's.Some lived a purthemhad becomecivil administrators
century,
many
poselessceremoniallife.In the latterpartof the seventeenth
busied themselvesin studyingthe elite way of life depictedin traditional
Chineselearning.
Then a movementtoward"Dutch studies"slowlygrew and became a
began to
flowingtide.Throughthe Dutch at Nagasaki manypainstakingly
learntheDutch language,in orderto gain acquaintancewiththeknowledge
dictionaries
of Europe. Before1800,Dutch grammarsand Dutch-Japanese
had beenprepared,Dutch schoolsopened,and manybooksor partsof books
astrongeology,geography,
translated.
They dealtwithphysics,mathematics,
militarytactics,medicine,governengineering,
omy,navigation,metallurgy,
schoolsforthe"studyof barbarian
ment,and othersubjects.Later,important
books" were opened-only one by theTokugawa, severalby theouterclans.
In the firsthalf of the nineteenthcentury,laboratorieswere establishedto
books.Some
performon a pilotscale theprocessesdescribedin the scientific
pilot metallurgicalprocesseswere performedwith the guidance only of
Westerntexts,that is, withoutany technicaladvice. Then full-scaleenterfurpriseswere established-anironore smelter,one or morereverberatory
to cast,amongotherthings,cannon.The emphanaces,and an ironfoundry,
and armament.
sis was on metallurgy
It probablyis not fanciful-thoughit is onlya conjectureon mypartconcerningtheirunconsciousmotivations-tosuggestthat the samurai were
drawn stronglyto such studiesbecause the Westernerswere powerfulwarriors.The studyof Western strengthwas a symbolicsubstitutefor the
vanishedpower of the samurai.Later, its relationto the defenseof Japan
became more and more clear. The threatto Japan fromthe West grew.
During the firsthalf of the nineteenthcenturyRussia and the Western
powersmade a numberof "requests"of Japan,whichshe turnedaway with
the samuraiwerepreIn seekingthe sourcesof Westernstrength,
difficulty.
paringto performwhat in Westerneyesis the noblestof theirhistoricfunctions,thedefenseof Japan.
thesevariousforcesforchange
century,
By thefirsthalfof thenineteenth
had createdalmostunbearabletensionsin the Japanesesociety.The disintegrationof the social orderbecamemoreand more evident.The merchants,
the peasants,and the samuraiwere breachingold social walls. The Tozama

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388

PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY

daimy6'swere nibblingaway at the restrictions

that had been placed on
them.The Tokugawa becamemoreand moreincapableof governing.
At this crucialjuncturein Japanesehistorya foreignpower appeared
again, with forcenot to be denied.In 1853 CommodorePerryappearedin
Tokyo Bay and announcedthathe would returnthe nextyearto obtaina
commercialtreaty.He reappearedwithfoursmall warships,withwhichhe
could,if he wished,have blockadedthe harborand starvedthe city.It was
not necessary.The Tokugawa signed a treatywhich opened two portsto
Americantradeand limitedJapan'spowerto regulatethetrade.In 1857the
Americanconsul,Townsend Harris,negotiateda further
agreementexpanding tradeand providingextraterritoriality
forAmericansaccusedof crimein
Japan.OtherWesterncountriesdemandedand receivedcommercialtreaties
similarto thatwiththeUnitedStates.
Japanwas savedfromdismemberment
likethatof China,perhapsbecause
conditionselsewhere,
e.g.,theriseof Germany,civilwar in theUnitedStates,
and revoltin India, kept foreignpowersoccupied.For thesereasonsJapan
also had timeto conducta greatinternaldebateconcerningthe appropriate
responseto theaggressionfromabroad.
The Tokugawa crywas: "Open the portsand help Tokugawa." It may
be interpreted
as meaning,"We do not have the strengthto resistthe foreigners.To prepareforresistancewould involvedrasticsocialchangeswhich
mustbe avoided.Thereforewe haveno alternative
to openingtheports."The
oppositioncry,"Loyaltyto theEmperor.Repel thebarbarians,"
was farmore
than an emotionalslogan.It meant,"We mustacquire the strength
needed
to repel the barbarians.To do so will requiredrasticsocial action.Let us
restorethepositionof theEmperor,therebypreserving
a symboliclink with
thepast.And, raiJying
aroundhim,letus overthrow
theTokugawa,in order
thatwe may get on withthe job of makingthe necessarychanges."At the
beginningof 1868the Tokugawa formallysurrendered
the mandateof governmentto the Emperor,withouta militarystruggle,and the new forces
tookoverthegovernment.
Who formedthe two camps? Behind the Tokugawa stood most of the
Fudai daimy6's;wealthymerchantswho fearedloss of theirloans and their
sourcesof revenueif social upheavaldisturbedthe positionof the daimyc3's;
and no doubt manywho simplyfearedchange.The oppositionwas led by
the four major Tozama hans,the Satsuma,Choshu,Tosa, and Hizen. But
theywere givensupportsurreptitiously
by lowerordersamuraiand wealthy
peasantsof Fudai hans,by some merchants,
and evenby the leadersof some
of the "veryfriendly"hans, the hans relatedby blood to the Tokugawa.
The Tozama han leaderswerechafingundertheirsubordinate
politicalposition.The samuraiand wealthypeasantswere anxiousto restoremeaningto
theirlives,themerchants
withtheir
eagerto gain socialstatuscommensurate
economicpower.All of the fivegroupswere motivateddeeply,not onlyby

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HOW ECONOMIC GROWTH BEGINS

389

theirpersonalfrustrations,
but also by desireto end Japan'shumiliation.
And
undoubtedlytheirdriveforpowerand foractionwas supportedby a bitter
urgeamongall classesto restorethe nation'spride.
In the main the new politicalleaderscame fromthe fourTozama hans
and werelowerlevelsamurai.Withina halfdozen yearstheyhad eliminated
thedaimya's'principalities
with
and income,established
a centralgovernment
pervasivepower and large tax revenues,and begun the industrialization
of
Japan.During theensuinggeneration,
new economicleaderscame moreand
more fromthe samuraiclass. Japanbegan thatremarkableperiodof rapid
technologicaladvance which has continuedto the present.By reactionto
the humiliationstheyhad suffered,
the new leadersdreamedof Japanas the
worldleader,and led heron a road whichendedin World War IL
This historymay be summarizedin the theoreticaltermspresentedin
SectionI. Social subordinationof elite groups-politicalsuppressionof the
Tozama hans,increasingly
unbearablepressureson the samurai,decayof the
positionof the wealthypeasants,and continuedsocial suppressionof the
merchantswhile theyrosegreatlyin economicpower-had progressedover
a periodof two and one-halfcenturies.While thesesocial tensionsgrew,six
or eight generationsof the subordinatedelite were given a tremendously
broadenedscope of experience.This musthave alteredbasicallytheirworld
view and need structure.
They wereprovidedwithconsiderableexperiencein
the managementof changingeconomicaffairs,and exposedto an increasinglyeffective
courseof educationin Westernscienceand technology,
which
theirpsychological
frustration
led themto absorbeagerly,bothbecauseof its
symbolicimportanceand because of its real value. The same frustration
in careers
causedthemto rejectold values-preparedthemto findstimulation
of thesocial
whichviolatedtheold values.At thesame time,thefoundations
class structure,
and hencethe abilityof the Tokugawa to enforcethe status
quo, werebeingundermined.
Then the entirenation was humiliated.The natureof the humiliation
made it clear thattechnologicalprogresswas the only possibleroad to the
of nationaldignity,just as the internalsituationmade it clear
restoration
forthe subordinated
thateconomicprowessofferedthe greatestopportunity
groups.Because theyofferedstrength,
and because theywere an honored
favindigenousgroup,the nationfollowedthem.With everycircumstance
orable,Japanenteredupon continuingtechnologicalprogress.
Withoutthe socialtensions,new leaderseagerto bringchangewould not
have been available.Withoutthe new experiencebroughtabout by SankinKdtai and relatedeconomicdevelopment,
theywould not have been capable
frustrations
whichdrove
of economicleadership.Withoutthe psychological
the samuraito Dutch studies,theywould not have possessedthe scientific
and technicalbasis for rapid technologicaladvance.With theseconditions,
theforeignaggressiontrippedofftechnological
progressas surelyas ifit had

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390

PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY

been planned.Withoutthe foreignaggression,no doubt economicprogress

would have occurred,but more haltingly,and with deep internaldivisions
concerning
it.
There is no reason to suppose that the developmentof countriesnow
underdevelopedwill parallelcloselythatof Japan.Indeed, obviouslyit will
not, because theirculturesand social structuredifferfromthat of Japan.
But it is reasonableto statethatunlesstheirown historicalprogressproduces
tensions,attitudes,and incentivesthatare in a verygeneralway similarto
thosethatappearedin Japan,thesecountireswill not enterupon economic
growth.

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