ENGR2140U Problem Solving,

Modeling and Simulation

Lecture-12

So far.

Introduction about the course

Project definition
What is the definition of problem
Real world problems
Effective problem thinkers
Good 6 habits
Tools: Microsoft Project, IDEF0, Flow
Diagram, Formal Languages

So far.

Risk assessment
Paradigm shift
Accident Investigation as problem solving
Exxon Valdez
Common contributors to accidents
Problem solving process, 5 steps
Heuristic Approach
Process Chart

So far.

How to define a problem

Data collection
Triggers
Brainstorming
Fishbone
Solution generation
K-T Analysis, PA, DA,PPA

So far.

Petri Nets
Decision Trees, Binary Decision Trees
FTA
ETA
Solution implementation
Approval
Planning

So far.

Implementation
Planning
MS Project , Critical Path
Approval
Resources
MOC
Onion Model
Follow Up

Step 4: Implementing the Solution

Evaluate Solution
Implement Solution
Decide Course of Action
Generate Solutions
Define the Problem

Planning

KT
Situation
Analysis

Gantt and
Deployment
Charts

Time &
Resource
Allocation

Critical
Path
Management

KT Potential
Problem
Analysis

Necessary
Resources

Necessary Resources

Resources generally fall into 5 different

categories:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Available personnel;
Equipment;
Travel;
Supplies; and
Overhead

You may also want to incorporate

contingency funds (a percentage of the
budget for unforeseen expenditures)

Personnel
Worker A
Worker B
Worker C
Worker D
Supervisor
Subtotal - salaries

Sample
Budget
with
Contingency

Days
10
10
10
10
10

Cost
% Budget
$6,400.00
$6,400.00
$6,400.00
$6,400.00
$8,800.00
$34,400.00
32.7%

Fringe benefits (18.5%)

TOTAL Salray + Benefits

$6,364.00
$40,764.00

6.1%

Equipment
PPE
High pressure sprayers

$2,000.00
$10,000.00

1.9%
9.5%

$8,000.00

7.6%

$500.00
$500.00

0.5%
0.5%

Travel
Attend sprayer training
Supplies
Sample bottles
Chemicals

ODC = Other
Direct Cost
(not labour)

Daily rate
$640.00
$640.00
$640.00
$640.00
$880.00

Sub-Total

$61,764.00

Overhead (65%)

$40,146.60

38.2%

$3,150.00

3.0%

Contingency on ODCs (15%)

TOTAL BUDGET

$105,060.60

100.0%

Blooms Taxonomic Approach

to
Problem - Solution
Carry Through

 Evaluation
Try to verify your solution(s)

Synthesis
Take all your ideas and formulate (synthesize) a way (or
ways) to test your solution(s)

Analysis
Apply rules & knowledge to the sub-problems to
generate solutions. Identify missing parts.

Application
Determine which sets of rules, principles and ideas
should be applied to the sub-problems.

Comprehension
Manipulation or extrapolation of knowledge to classify
into sub-problems.

Knowledge
Recalling previously learned material and using it (this is
used in each step of the unraveling).

4. Follow Up
Inspect what you Expect
Follow up to check that you are
Following the solution plan
Proceeding on schedule
Proceeding within budget
Producing acceptable quality
Tracking solution that is still relevant to the
original problem

Document progress (progress report)

Changing Problem Statements

If the goals keep changing, ask
yourself:
(a)Where did the goals come from
and why?
(b)Are the goals still appropriate to
the problem as originally defined?

Experiment and Simulation

Experimental design is a very important
part of problem solving that you will be
developing (along with improved modeling
and simulation skills) over the next few
years (and your lifetime).

Why Experimental Design

Improved process yields
Reduced variability and closer
conformance to nominal or target
requirements
Reduced development time
Reduced overall costs

Examine the
need for the
experiment

Define
objectives for
the experiment

Choose
responses to
measure

Identify the
important
variables

Design the
experiment

Basic Building
Blocks for
Experimental
Design
IMPORTANT: Error Analysis

Perform
experiment

Analyze
results

Act upon
results

Report !

Three things I will stress here:

ERROR ANALYSIS
PRESENTATION
OF DATA
REPORT

Experimental Data Analysis

Propagation
of Uncertainty
Bias
Uncertainty

Precision
Uncertainty

Statistical Analysis
Error Distribution

Gaussian distribution
t-distribution
Chi-square distribution

Population
theory

Sample
theory

Some Definitions
Metrology
The science (and art) of measurement

Accuracy
The difference between what you measure and
the true or standard value

Precision
Difference the difference or range in repeated
measurement of the same thing. Also the
number of digits you reasonably report.

Some Definitions
Resolution
Smallest increment of change you can determine;
sometimes called least count.
Resolution is usually less than or equal to
Precision.

Sensitivity
Change in output per unit change in input.

Range
The interval of the smallest and largest inputs
(measurands) the system can handle without
distortion
Many times range and sensitivity are at odds.

Types of Errors
Bias error (systematic error) are those that occur
the same way each time a measurement is
made. Bias errors do not show a distribution,
therefore no statistical technique may be used.

Calibration errors
Consistent human errors
Defective equipment
Loading errors (effective of sensor on quantity
measured)

Types of Errors (cont)

Precision errors (random error) are different for
each successive measurement but have an
average value of zero. Statistical analysis may
be used to estimate the size of error. Notice
that precision means repeatability.
Human error
Equipment disturbances
Fluctuating experimental conditions

Total error
Bias error

Precision
error
Truth

Measured value

Example
Operator can make these adjustments by
stopping the machine, loosening some
clamps, and jogging the cutting device
back or forth depending on the adjustment
the operator feels is necessary
The process takes 5 minutes, that occurs
fairly often

26

Example
Engineers are studying the cutting operation
Operator is adding variation to the process
(over-adjusting) as he cannot distinguish
between common cause variation and special
cause variation
Each time operator performs an adjustment,
which is not necessary, variation is
introduced to the process, and quality is
decreased, with delay in production
27

Example: Production Process

28

Example: with and without

adjustments

Process has stabilized

29

Root Cause
Tempering can be avoided by isolating
and removing the root causes of the
process variation through the use of PDCA
or PDSA
Plan-Do-Study-Act
Plac-Do-Check-Act
Knowledge of controlled and uncontrolled
variation
30

Types of Errors (cont)

Illegitimate errors are those that would not be
expected to exist.
Blunders (outright mistakes)
Computational errors

Error estimates are used

to quantify uncertainty!