EXPANDING THE LATINO VOTE IN

COLORADO IN 2016 AND BEYOND

Gabriel R Sanchez, Ph.D.

Katherine Archuleta

(Gabriel.Sanchez@latinodecisions.com)

(katherinearchuleta@gmail.com)

Why This Research? Why Now?

2

Hispanics/Latinos in Colorado are a growing, shifting, diverse

population.
LDP/LD experiences told us the data we had is not deep enough
to inform ourselves about ourselves. Collaboration with CPAF.
If we could design the research, what would it look like?
This is the start of ongoing research that allows us to build the
data so that every election cycle begins with updated, critical
information.

Thanks to Our Collaboration Partners

3

Our thanks to Stephen McConnell and Katherine Peck of CPAF for

investing in such a large venture. Without their support, we would
not have been able to move from vision to product.
We also thank the Latino Victory Project who met with us every
step of the way to ensure that our Latino lens held strong through
the design.
And to Catalist, VAN, and America Votes for their support in the
data merging effort.

LANDSCAPE ANALYSIS PROVIDES

CONTEXT FOR SURVEY RESULTS

Colorado Population Projections 1990-2040

Currently, the
median age
for Colorado
Latinos is 26.
The median
age for
Colorado
whites (nonLatino) is 40.

White Non-Hispanic

Hispanic

80%

81%
75%
60%

71%

66%

61%

40%

20%

13%

17%

21%

25%

29%

56%

34%

0%

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Sources: State Demography Office, Colorado Division of Local Government, 2013; U.S. Census Bureau
1990 and 2012.

Growing the Latino vote in 2016

Colorado
213,000
Eligible to
vote, but not
registered
321,000 Registered

Latino Population Growth Fueled by Age

7

White and Latino Age Distribution in Colorado

Under 18

White

Latino

20%

18-34

35-54

23%

35%

55+

29%

28%

28%

25%

12%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5 Year Estimates, 2014

Latino Population Growth Fueled by Age

8

Median Age Latino and White Population in Colorado

Latino

White

40.9

38.7
27.2

26.5

Male

Female
Source: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5 Year Estimates, 2014

Latino Millennials are Key Sub-Group

9

Age Distribuion of Colorado Latino Electorate

18-34

33%

Registered

Voters

18%

35-49

50-69

70 +

27%

26%

30%

40%

10%

15%

Source: LD analysis of Colorado Secretary of State, November 2014

Survey Methodology
10

The polls included live interviews with Latino registered voters in Colorado.

N=500 Statewide Issues / MOE = 4.4%

N=1,000 Statewide Messaging / MOE = 3.1%

N=406 Statewide Millennial (sample restricted to age 18-33) / MOE = 4.8%

The surveys were conducted by telephone via both landlines and cell-phones and
through Email for a segment of the Millennial poll. Respondents answered in English
or Spanish at their discretion (fully bilingual interviewers used).
Results were weighted to known population characteristics using the CPS.

We were able to obtain names and physical address for all respondents, critical for
merging with VAN.

What Do We Call Latinos/Hispanics?

11

16%

15%

17%

25%

29%

21%

59%

56%

62%

Total

Denver

Non Denver

Either
Latino
Hispanic

Source: Statewide Messaging Poll (N=1,000)

LATINO MILLENNIALS- HOW TO ENGAGE

THE FUTURE OF THE LATINO ELECTORATE?

12

Who are Latino Millennials in Colorado?

13

63% of Latinos in Colorado are under 35 / 35% under 18.

46% of millennials are medium and 24% are low propensity voters.
60% of millennials are of Mexican-origin / 12% Spanish
36% are Catholic (lowest among all sub-groups) /22% Christian
77% are 2nd Generation or beyond
Only 30% of this age group self-identify as a millennial

Millennials do not Follow News Regularly/

Feel Informed Anyway
14

Which of the
following best
describes the
way you think
about politics
and voting?

18-33
Politics is boring, I try to tune it out
Im more interested in other topics, and
not that into politics
I feel informed, but I don't follow every
single news story
I'm a political junkie - always following
political news

3%

34-59

5%
15%

4%
11%

66%

14%

60+

64%

18%

7%
55%

29%

Source: Statewide Messaging Poll (N=1,000)

Millennial Identity/Stereotype Measures

15

In your
opinion, to
what extent do
the following
statements
describe young
people of your
generation?

Would rather attend a protest than vote in an

election

51%

Think more about right now than planning for

the future

60%

Have hope for the future

61%

Feel that social media to influence political

outcomes is more effective than voting
Feel negative about whats happening right
now in politics
Want to see major change in our country

63%
82%
86%

Source: Statewide Millennial Poll (N=406)

Millennial Specific-Messages/ Messengers Needed

16

Traditional messages and messengers do not resonate

well with these young Latino eligible voters.
Dramatic

differences across messages by age, with millennial

respondents being generally more pessimistic.
Traditional messengers do not have traction with this group
either, motivating the more nuanced and lengthy set of
messengers to test in final poll.

Views Toward the Role of Government by Age

17

Government can play

a role in impacting
people's lives. Which
of the following two
statements do you
agree with more: (1)
There should be a
strong role for
government, but we
need to make it work
better OR (2)
Government is really
part of the problem,
and we need to limit
the role of
government.

Government is part of the problem

Strong role for government / make it better
60+

34-59

18-33

40%

58%
38%
59%
53%
47%

Source: Statewide Messaging Poll (N=1,000)

Power of Voting to Create Change by Age

18

18-33

National politics
may be a mess
but we can still
make things
work here in
Colorado - the
only way we can
keep improving
things in
Colorado is by
voting. Would
you say that
message was...

36%

34-59

60+
7%

4%

52%

7%
8%

41%
44%
56%

17%
7%

18%
Really convincing

Just okay

Not that
convincing

Not at all
convincing

Source: Statewide Messaging Poll (N=1,000)

Messages Tested Among Latino Millennials

19

Really convincing

Just okay

Not that convincing

When Donald Trump called Mexicans rapists,

criminals and drug dealers
Here in Colorado voting is easy

Not at all convincing

59%
42%

19%
40%

6% 13%
9% 8%

This is YOUR country - you belong - you are part of

democracy - your vote is your voice

44%

39%

9% 5%

Our communities and our families matter

43%

40%

12%

If you dont vote and take part in democracy nothing

will ever change

39%

National politics may be a mess but we can still make

things work here in Colorado

38%

38%

48%

15%

7%

11%

Source: Statewide Millennial Poll (N=406)

Trusted Messengers for Millennials-More Likely to Vote?

More likely

Less likely

No impact

20

Family member

63%

Teachers

6%

25%

61%

5%

28%

Nurses and doctors

59%

6%

28%

Firefighters from your community

58%

6%

30%

Community organization

58%

6%

31%

Mi Familia Vota
Someone from your neighborhood
Former US Senator and Cabinet Secretary Ken Salazar
State Representative Joe Salazar
State House Majority Leader Crisanta Duran
State Senator Jessie Ulibarri

49%

5%

45%

10%

41%

12%

40%
34%
29%

12%
9%
14%

35%
38%

37%
38%
42%
42%

Source: Statewide Millennial Poll (N=406)

Celebrities are Not Strong Messengers for

Millennials- Will You Attend an Event?
21

Definitely

Probably not

Probably so

Definitely not

Singer Shakira

40%

15%

31%

9%

Singer and actress Jennifer Lopez

39%

19%

28%

10%

Quarterback Mark Sanchez

Singer and actress Selena Gomez

30%
28%

22%
25%

Jorge Ramos from Univision

22%

30%

America Ferrera

22%

25%

Armida y la Flaca
Diane Guerrero

15%
13%

30%
37%

22%
30%

29%
26%
18%
24%

13%
12%

10%
14%
18%
11%

Source: Statewide Millennial Poll (N=406)

Sources of Political Information for Latino Millennials

22

Just thinking about

news and
information about
the election, which
one source would
you say you get
most of your
information from?
Is it from Television,
Radio, Blogs,
Newspapers and
Magazines,
Internet?

40%
22%
13%

Internet
(general)

Television

Internet:
Facebook

13%

Multiple
sources, no
single source

5%

3%

1%

Radio

Newspapers
and
Magazines

Blogs

Source: Statewide Millennial Poll (N=406)

Source of Music for Latino Millennials in Colorado

23

When you are

listening to
music how do
you usually
stream music
through
Pandora,
Itunes, or
Spotify, or do
you listen to
the radio?

46%

19%
12%

Pandora/Spotify

Radio

12%

8%

YouTube

When asked, Pandora is preferred among options (37%)

All three

Something else

Source: Statewide Millennial Poll (N=406)

Effective Mediums for Reaching Millennials

24

Did you happen

to go online, use
the internet, or
check your email
today?

Yes
27%

No

36%
65%

73%

64%
34%

18-33

34-59

60+

Source: Statewide Messaging Poll (N=1,000)

Effective Mediums for Reaching Millennials

25

When you use

the internet,
what is the main
way you access
information on
the internet?

18-33
Through a mobile phone / smart phone
Through a computer (laptop or
desktop)
Through a tablet / iPad
Don't have regular internet access

34-59

67%
28%
4%
5%

60+

52%
36%
5%

18%
38%

9%
29%

Source: Statewide Messaging Poll (N=1,000)

Projected Vote Choice Among Millennials in Colorado

26

Certain

If the 2016
election for
President was
held today and
the candidates
were Donald
Trump or
Hillary Clinton
who would you
most likely vote
for?

Not Certain

5%

Undecided - lean
13%
9%

3%
48%
7%

Donald Trump

*Undecided/Dont
know 16%

Hillary Clinton
Source: Statewide Millennial Poll (N=406)

Party Identification Among Latino Millennials

27

Generally
speaking, do
you think of
yourself as a
Republican, a
Democrat, an
independent,
or something
else ?

Other party,
4%

Republican,
15%

Independent,
27%
Democrat,
49%

Young Latinos do not have

a cemented relationship
with either party.

Source: Statewide Millennial Poll (N=406)

MAXIMIZING THE POTENTIAL OF THE

LATINA ELECTORATE

28

Who are Latinas in Colorado?

29

Latinas represent 52% of the Colorado Latino electorate.

53% of all Latina eligible voters in Colorado are millennials.
52% of Latinas are medium propensity voters.
55 % of Latinas are of Mexican-origin.
64% are Catholic
74% are 2nd Generation or Beyond
54% of Latinas are married and 60% have a child living with
them at home.

Gender Gap in Enthusiasm

30

Female
Compared to the
2012
presidential
election, would
you say you are
MORE
enthusiastic
about voting this
year in 2016, or
that you were
more enthusiastic
about voting
back in 2012?

No difference / same level

More enthusiastic then, back in 2012

More enthusiastic now, in 2016

50% of Latino men are more enthusiastic
in 2016 compared to 38% among women
(August LD/AV Battleground Poll)

Male
21%
16%
45%
36%
32%
48%
Source: Statewide Issues Poll N (500)

Latinas Less Optimistic About Power of Voting

31

Which of the
following two
statements do you
agree with more: (1)
If Hispanics here in
Colorado turnout to
vote at high rates, we
can influence the way
decisions are made
and what policies are
considered; OR (2) It
doesnt really matter
how many Hispanics
in Colorado vote,
nothing is ever going
to really change?

It can influence policy

Doesn't really matter

16%

22%

81%

75%

Male

Female
Source: Statewide Messaging Poll (N=1,000)

Effectiveness of Racist Comments Message by Gender

32

This year some

politicians have
said truly
offensive things
about Hispanics
and immigrants.
We must vote to
put an end to
racist comments
against
Hispanics. Would
you say that
message was...

15%
11%
24%

12%
8%
24%

47%

53%

Male

Female

Not at all convincing

Not that convincing
Just okay
Really convincing

Source: Statewide Messaging Poll (N=1,000)

Strongest Messages For Latinos of Spanish Origin

33

Really convincing

Just okay

Not that convincing

When Donald Trump called Mexicans

rapists, criminals and drug dealers that was
disrespectful to Hispanics.

60%

Here in Colorado voting is easy.

57%

This year some politicians have said truly

offensive things about Hispanics and
immigrants.

57%

Not at all convincing

13%

32%

18%

3%

16% 11% 13%

Source: Statewide Messaging Poll (N=1,000)

RECENT POLLING IN COLORADO AND

OTHER BATTLEGROUND STATES

34

The Research
35

Sponsored by

Implemented
by Latino
Decisions

N= 400 Latino registered voters per state

Representative of statewide registered Latino electorate

Conducted August 19 - August 30, 2016

Landline, cell and online blended sample

Margin of error is +/- 4.9%

Interview in Spanish or English at subjects discretion

Most Important Issue Facing Latino

Community: Immigration and Econ/Jobs
36

What are the

most important
issues facing
the Latino
community that
you think
Congress and
the President
should address?

Source: Americas Voice/LD State Surveys August 2016 (N=400 per state; MoE +/-4.9% per state)

Most Important Issues: Economy/Jobs

and Immigration
37

What are the

most important
issues that you
think Congress
and the
President should
address?

Source: Americas Voice/LD State Surveys August 2016 (N=400 per state; MoE +/-4.9% per state)

Favorability Indicators: Trump

(Net, favorable, and unfavorable reported)
38

Source: Americas Voice/LD State Surveys August 2016 (N=400 per state; MoE +/-4.9% per state)

Presidential Vote
39

Source: Americas Voice/LD State Surveys August 2016 (N=400 per state; MoE +/-4.9% per state)

Trump Support and Senate Vote

40

If you knew that

[GOP Senate
Candidate Name]
was supporting
Donald Trump for
President, would
you be more likely
to vote for [name],
or less likely to
vote for [name]?

Source: Americas Voice/LD State Surveys August 2016 (N=400 per state; MoE +/-4.9% per state)

Voting in 2016: Enthusiasm

41

Thinking ahead to
the November
2016 presidential
election, would you
say you are more
enthusiastic about
voting in 2016, or
that you were
more enthusiastic
about voting back
in 2012?

Source: Americas Voice/LD State Surveys August 2016 (N=400 per state; MoE +/-4.9% per state)

Voting in 2016: Why more enthused?

42

What is different
about 2016 that
makes more
important/ enthusiastic
to vote this time?
[Asked of the share
said 2016 more
enthused]

Source: Americas Voice/LD State Surveys August 2016 (N=400 per state; MoE +/-4.9% per state)

Contact and Outreach

43

Over the past few

months, did
anyone from a
campaign,
political party, or
community
organization ask
you to vote, or
register to vote?

Source: Americas Voice/LD State Surveys August 2016 (N=400 per state; MoE +/-4.9% per state)

Thank you!

Questions / Suggestions?

Feel free to contact me with follow up questions:

gabriel.sanchez@latinodecisions.com