Climate Changes

Introduction
Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that change
lasts for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years). Climate change may refer
to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather around longer-term
average conditions (i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change is caused by
factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics,
and volcanic eruptions. Certain human activities have also been identified as significant causes
of recent climate change, often referred to as global warming.
Scientists actively work to understand past and future climate by using observations and
theoretical models. A climate recordextending deep into the Earth's pasthas been assembled,
and continues to be built up, based on geological evidence from borehole temperature profiles,
cores removed from deep accumulations of ice, floral and faunal records, glacial and periglacial
processes, stable-isotope and other analyses of sediment layers, and records of past sea levels.
More recent data are provided by the instrumental record. General circulation models, based on
the physical sciences, are often used in theoretical approaches to match past climate data, make
future projections, and link causes and effects in climate change.
The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties (principally
its mean and spread) of the climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless
of cause. Accordingly, fluctuations over periods shorter than a few decades, such as El Nio, do
not represent climate change.
The term sometimes is used to refer specifically to climate change caused by human activity, as
opposed to changes in climate that may have resulted as part of Earth's natural processes. In this
sense, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term climate change has become
synonymous with anthropogenic global warming. Within scientific journals, global warming
refers to surface temperature increases while climate change includes global warming and
everything else that increasing greenhouse gas levels affect.
On the broadest scale, the rate at which energy is received from the Sun and the rate at which it is
lost to space determine the equilibrium temperature and climate of Earth. This energy is
distributed around the globe by winds, ocean currents, and other mechanisms to affect the
climates of different regions.
Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcings or "forcing mechanisms". These
include processes such as variations in solar radiation, variations in the Earth's orbit, variations in

the albedo or reflectivity of the continents and oceans, mountain-building and continental drift
and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of climate change feedbacks
that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some parts of the climate system, such as
the oceans and ice caps, respond more slowly in reaction to climate forcings, while others
respond more quickly. There are also key threshold factors which when exceeded can produce
rapid change.
Forcing mechanisms can be either "internal" or "external". Internal forcing mechanisms are
natural processes within the climate system itself (e.g., the thermohaline circulation). External
forcing mechanisms can be either natural (e.g., changes in solar output) or anthropogenic (e.g.,
increased emissions of greenhouse gases).
Whether the initial forcing mechanism is internal or external, the response of the climate system
might be fast (e.g., a sudden cooling due to airborne volcanic ash reflecting sunlight), slow (e.g.
thermal expansion of warming ocean water), or a combination (e.g., sudden loss of albedo in the
arctic ocean as sea ice melts, followed by more gradual thermal expansion of the water).
Therefore, the climate system can respond abruptly, but the full response to forcing mechanisms
might not be fully developed for centuries or even longer.

Climate Change
Climate change is the rise in average surface temperatures on Earth, mostly due to the burning of
fossil fuels.
Climate change, also called global warming, refers to the rise in average surface temperatures on
Earth. An overwhelming scientific consensus maintains that climate change is due primarily to
the human use of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the
air. The gases trap heat within the atmosphere, which can have a range of effects on ecosystems,
including rising sea levels, severe weather events, and droughts that render landscapes more
susceptible to wildfires.
There is broad-based agreement within the scientific community that climate change is real. The
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concur that climate change is indeed
occurring and is almost certainly due to human activity.
The primary cause of climate change is the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil and coal, which
emits greenhouse gases into the atmosphereprimarily carbon dioxide. Other human activities,
such as agriculture and deforestation, also contribute to the proliferation of greenhouse gases that
cause climate change.

While some quantities of these gases are a naturally occurring and critical part of Earths
temperature control system, the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 did not rise above 300 parts
per million between the advent of human civilization roughly 10,000 years ago and 1900. Today
it is at about 400 ppm, a level not reached in more than 400,000 years.
Even small increases in Earths temperature caused by climate change can have severe effects.
The earths average temperature has gone up 1.4 F over the past century and is expected to rise
as much as 11.5 F over the next. That might not seem like a lot, but the average temperature
during the last Ice Age was about 4 F lower than it is today.
Rising sea levels due to the melting of the polar ice caps (again, caused by climate change)
contribute to greater storm damage; warming ocean temperatures are associated with stronger
and more frequent storms; additional rainfall, particularly during severe weather events, leads to
flooding and other damage; an increase in the incidence and severity of wildfires threatens
habitats, homes, and lives; and heat waves contribute to human deaths and other consequences.
While consensus among nearly all scientists, scientific organizations, and governments is that
climate change is happening and is caused by human activity, a small minority of voices
questions the validity of such assertions and prefers to cast doubt on the preponderance of
evidence. Climate change deniers often claim that recent changes attributed to human activity
can be seen as part of the natural variations in Earths climate and temperature, and that it is
difficult or impossible to establish a direct connection between climate change and any single
weather event, such as a hurricane. While the latter is generally true, decades of data and analysis
support the reality of climate changeand the human factor in this process. In any case,
economists agree that acting to reduce fossil fuel emissions would be far less expensive than
dealing with the consequences of not doing so.

Aims and Objectives

Rapid, human-induced climate change is one of the greatest threats to the long-term future of
coral reefs. Human activities are taking coral reefs out of their comfort zone where they have
thrived for hundreds of thousands of years.
In combination with other natural and human-induced pressures, warming sea surface
temperatures and ocean acidification increase the vulnerability of coral reefs to coral bleaching,
coral diseases, crown-of-thorns starfish and tropical cyclones.

Impact on marine ecosystems

Australias tropical marine ecosystems, like the Great Barrier Reef, are already experiencing the
consequences of climate change. AIMS research reveals that tropical sea surface temperatures
have risen by 0.40.5 C since the late 19th century.
Since the late 18th century, the oceans have also absorbed about 30 per cent of the extra carbon
dioxide that human activities have injected into the atmosphere. The additional carbon dioxide in
the oceans has changed their chemistryin a process known as ocean acidificationwith the pH
of the global oceans decreasing from around 8.15 to around 8.05.
AIMSs modelling and experimental studies show that increased acidity impairs the ability of
corals and other calcifying organisms to build their calcium carbonate skeletons, which are the
backbone of tropical coral reef ecosystems.
The resulting complex reef structures provide food and habitat for many thousands of reefassociated organisms, resulting in the incredible biodiversity of tropical coral reefs.
Climate change is predicted to affect tropical marine systems in the following ways:

Warmer sea surface temperatures will increase the risk of heat stress events and mass
coral bleaching.

Tropical cyclones are likely to be more intense, resulting in physical destruction and
weakening of the reef structure.

Extreme rainfall events will increase, with larger amounts of low-salinity freshwater and
sediment extending further out from the coast.

Sea levels will gradually rise, affecting coastal erosion, the magnitude of storm surges
and the area available for shallow water marine organisms.
Ocean circulation and upwelling patterns will change.

To bring together information from rural communities, indigenous peoples and research
workers on how they use agrobiodiversity to cope with climate change.

To stimulate communication between agrobiodiversity researchers, users and maintainers.

To identify tools and practices relevant to using agrobiodiversity for coping with climate
change and making these widely available.

To provide a synthesis of available information, assess major knowledge gaps and

identify research that will respond to the needs of farmers, communities and indigenous
peoples, and

To promote awareness of the vital role of agrobiodiversity in adapting to climate change

among key audiences, including donors, development agents and the global biodiversity
community.

Literature review

A literature review was completed by May of 2013 yielding two science review papers Climate
change
Climate change and forestry in the Asia-Pacific

Climate change and forestry in the Asia-Pacific included the fundamental science of climate
change and the impacts the Asia-Pacific may expect with regards to forest structure and function.
The goal of the science review was to present an analysis of the current status of climate change
studies in forest ecosystems and forest-dependent communities in this region. This was achieved
through the examination of patterns of temperature/moisture changes and their associated impact
on species and range shifts, as well as invasive species establishment and spread, wildfires, and
various strategies for forest management. This review presented tools and practices for forest
managers and users throughout the Asia-Pacific region to help manage their forest systems in
light of uncertainties and challenges.
This review paper revealed unique patterns of climate change and its varying impacts across the
region, such as temperature and precipitation pattern changes, forest species movement, and
changes in abiotic disturbances. The report synthesized existing knowledge of forest processes
and their climatic drivers in relation to a changing climate, which has increased the
understanding of how changes in these climatic variables will differentially influence ecosystems
throughout the Asia-Pacific. Additionally, forest management techniques and the anticipated
effects of climate change were investigated for major economic species to understand how to
improve management methods to ensure high levels of forest resilience to disturbance. The paper
identified management strategies to improve the health of forests and indicated tools, such as the
process-based models developed in this project, which managers can use in long-term forestry
planning while accounting for the effects of climate change. Overall, forests in the Asia-Pacific
region are faced with increasing temperatures, frequency of catastrophic fires and storms, pest
and disease outbreaks, and overall niche or habitat shifts. However, these forests are resilient,
and through appropriate management strategies can aid in climate change mitigation and
continue to provide resources for the people that depend on them.
Climate change and forest policy in the Asia-Pacific

Climate change and forest policy in the Asia-Pacific is a review of various policy measures in
the Asia-Pacific region that have been implemented to either adapt to or mitigate climate change
from a forestry perspective. The objective was to determine whether existing policies could
enable the regions inhabitants and forest managers to adapt their practices in order to limit
climate change and its impact on forests and dependent communities. Additionally, this review
summarized climate change related policy instruments used in forest management, including

existing policy instruments used at various scales global, multi-national, national, and domestic
throughout the Asia-Pacific for climate change mitigation or adaptation.
The review indicated that forest and climate policies are diverse regarding their goals and
strategies, as well as their implementation and success, as they are often geared towards the
jurisdiction in which they are developed. A single countrys efforts to protect forests and reduce
greenhouse gas emissions cannot be looked at in isolation, as detrimental impacts associated with
the extraction of forest resources may simply be outsourced. For forests to contribute
successfully to the mitigation of climate change, the large-scale, regional balance will need to be
considered to ensure environmental degradation is being reduced, as opposed
to redistributed across the Asia-Pacific. Additionally, due to the diversity of forests throughout
the region, forest-based climate change policies must be deeply rooted in science and must
recognize the complexity and heterogeneity of forest functions and processes. Policies must
account for the various economies and social differences between and within countries, and be
enforceable, yet flexible, to changing perceptions and knowledge. Although existing policies
appear insufficient to effectively mitigate climate change in the Asia-Pacific region, or globally,
the integration of scientific research with effective forest management principles will enable the
regions inhabitants and forest managers to adapt their practices to limit the impacts of climate
change on forests and forest-dependent communities.
Significance of the literature review

These reports highlighted the importance of this project for increasing the potential of the AsiaPacific region to mitigate and adapt to climate change. They indicated several gaps in knowledge
of the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems, as well as inadequacies of current
management and policy in addressing these issues. Many of these shortcomings were addressed
by this projects subsequent outcomes, such as the development of process-based models and
interactive web tools to aid in forest management decisions. The comprehensive summary of
how environmental factors influence forest ecosystems in the context of climate change is vital
for future research and the development of tools and models to investigate climate change
impacts in the Asia-Pacific.

There are various types of models (policy evaluation, policy optimisation) and model
specifications to address policy questions related to climate change and development. Examples
of these questions include: what are the best emissions reduction policies in terms of economic
development, international equality and environment? How can the vulnerability of developing
countries to climate change damage be decreased? Is the promotion of economic growth the best
policy option to deal with environmental challenges.

Relevant
Climate change is already affecting the planet and society and will continue to do so for
generations to come. The physical and chemical changes of human activities are being felt in
natural ecosystems on land and at sea, on farms and ranches, and in cities and suburbs, but the
changes are not happening uniformly. Differences in how regions are affected by varying degrees
of warming, precipitation, and changes of animal and plant species are likely to get even more
extreme as climate change continues. Some areas may actually get a bit cooler for a while!
Similarly for rainfall, some parts of the planet will get drier, while others will get more
precipitation in more extreme events.
The poles have already seen the greatest warming, and will continue to warm more rapidly than
other areas. Already were seeing record losses of ice in the Arctic. That melting ice contributes
to rising sea levels, affecting the entire planet. In addition, warm water expands, so sea levels
will rise as the atmosphere warms. The ocean has risen 4-8 inches (10-20 centimeters) globally
over the last hundred years. As sea level continues to rise, flooding and storm surges will
threaten freshwater sources, as well as coastal homes and buildings. Coastal facilities and barrier
islands in many parts of the world are gradually submerging, and some low-lying islands have
already had to be evacuated, as Australias The Age (July 29, 2009) describes happening in the
Carteret Islands of Papua New Guinea.
As climate change causes the ocean to rise, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is also
changing ocean chemistry. When carbon dioxide dissolves in water, it makes water more acidic.
Warmer ocean water also contain less oxygen. These changes harm marine ecosystems,
destroying coral reefs that shelter much of the oceans biodiversity, and harming many other
species. In addition to the harmful effects on natural ecosystems, this affects fish that people eat,
coral reefs that tourists visit, and the whales, dolphins, sharks, and other marine life that fascinate
so many people. Climate change and changing oceanic chemistry affect the tiny plankton in the
ocean which produce much of the oxygen in our air, as researchers Graeme Hays, Anthony
Richardson, and Carol Robinson explained (PDF) in a 2005 review in Trends in Ecology and
Evolution. Changes to the growth of these tiny organisms have surprisingly large effects on
global climate, as do climate change-induced changes to the movements of marine life, as

reported by Wired magazine (July 2009). Changing ocean chemistry thus has complex and
unpredictable effects on global climate and even the air we breathe. In 2005, the Royal Society
issued (PDF) a detailed report for policymakers in the United Kingdom examining the ways
climate change and ocean acidification would affect the oceans.
Freshwater resources are being affected as well, with winter snowpack and mountain glaciers
that provide water declining in many parts of the world. Climate change especially droughts
and desertification is likely to increase the demands on those water supplies even as they fade
away.
Environmental consequences of climate change, such as extreme heat waves, rising sea-levels,
changes in precipitation resulting in flooding and droughts, intense hurricanes, and degraded air
quality, affect directly and indirectly the physical, social, and psychological health of humans.
A changing climate impacts our health and wellbeing. The major public health organizations of
the world have said that climate change is a critical public health problem. Climate change
makes many existing diseases and conditions worse, but it may also help introduce new pests and
pathogens into new regions or communities. As the planet warms, oceans expand and the sea
level rises, floods and droughts become more frequent and intense, and heat waves and
hurricanes become more severe. The most vulnerable peoplechildren, the elderly, the poor, and
those with underlying health conditionsare at increased risk for health effects from climate
change. Climate change also stresses our health care infrastructure and delivery systems.

Proposed Methodology of Climate Change:

The nature of the impact between climate, water and agriculture can be complex but this research
tested the validity of a simplified assessment approach and compared its results to those from
more sophisticated modelling approaches.
In many developing countries, the single largest risk to livelihoods from climate change comes
from the impact of reduced water security on rainfed crops. This is now receiving increasing
attention from governments and donors and features in many National Adaptation Programs of
Action (NAPAs).
The nature of the impact between climate, water and agriculture can be complex but this research
tested the validity of a simplified assessment approach and compared its results to those from
more sophisticated modelling approaches.
The research developed a method using a simple spreadsheet model based on four key equations
that are fundamental to FAO Irrigation and Drainage Papers 24, 33 and 56.
The research selected five country case studies in which sophisticated models have been used to
assess the impact of climate change on agriculture - Yemen, Mozambique, Cambodia,
Bangladesh and Morocco.
The simple framework was applied to the same five country case studies using same assumptions
of climate change. The results using the simple framework were compared with those from the
more complex modelling approaches to assess the value added by using the more sophisticated
models.
The research addressed the following questions:

Does the simple framework produce results that are valid for more general analysis of the
average impact of climate change over large areas?

Does the simple framework make it easier for non-experts to understand the results of the
analysis, and is this increased understanding useful?

Could the simple framework have a role in the formulation of policy on climate change
adaptation?

The differences in projected changes in crop yield between the simplified approach and those of
the more sophisticated detailed models for the five case country case studies are shown in the
figure above. Whilst there are some differences in the estimates, the simple framework generally
produced results that are within 10% to 20% of the more sophisticated, data hungry and resource
intensive analyses. Where differences were found, the research investigated and explained why
these occurred and identified parameters and sensitivities responsible for the differences.
The research concluded that the simple framework has a role to play in climate impact
assessments as a rapid analysis tool because of its low cost, speed of application, reliance on
readily available datasets, and transparency of use. The simple framework can be usefully
applied where a more detailed, sophisticated climate change impact analysis cannot be justified.
The simple framework could also be used to support climate adaptation as a capacity building
and training tool to enable practitioners to understand better the complex linkages between
climate, water resources and agriculture under different scenarios and timeframes.
A Climate Change Index (CCI) was designed to assess the degree of susceptibility to the climatic
extremes projected for the future. Climate projections for the period 2041-2070 are extracted
from the numerical integrations of INPE's Eta-HadCM3 model, using the SRES A1B emissions
sce-nario. Five indicators were chosen to represent the climatic extremes: Total annual
precipitation, precipitation on the days of heavy rain, the maximum number of consecutive dry
days in the year and the annual mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures. The
methodology was applied to the state of Paran. The results point to a very strong warming in
99% of the municipalities, with temperature increases between 6 and 8 times greater than the
variance observed in the present climate. On the other hand, projections of precipitation do not
indicate major changes in relation to present behavior.

There is not a single credible scientific institution that disputes the science of climate change.1
Asset owners recognise that climate change is an investment risk with a unique profile in that it
is long-term but also has high certainty and high impact. Therefore climate change represents a
unique challenge for them to account for such risks in their existing portfolios and to take
advantage of the rapidly emerging new markets.
The physical and policy impacts from climate change already affect specific assets and asset
classes but also have the ability to create sudden, widespread repricing of global markets and
panic regulation in future which may drive down values across all asset classes.
The ability of asset owners to build capability in the management of climate change risks and
opportunities is becoming core to their business. Not only is it certain that this capability will be
required over the long-term but it will become a determining factor in both the risk/return profile
of the investment portfolio and also the funds position in the market place. Our research shows
that many funds are already building significant capability in this area and that many more are
planning to do so. Additionally, many members are already expecting capability in this area.
As a result of this situation, large asset owners in particular such as superannuation funds,
pension funds, sovereign funds and insurance companies are faced with three key challenges:
Integration of climate change risks and opportunities into investment strategies;
Restructuring the processes within the investment chain to better account for systemic, long-term
risks; and
Implementing systems to check that the processes in place are sufficient to manage climate
change risks and opportunities on an ongoing basis.
The Climate Change Best Practice Methodology has been designed to guide asset owners
through the process of building this climate change capability.
The Climate Change Best Practice Methodology
The Methodology is a step-by-step guide designed to assist asset owners in designing and
implementing a programme that will raise the standard of climate change management in their
organisation to the highest global industry benchmarks. The Methodology is designed to assist
asset owners in building capability that will increase members long-term returns by:
Measuring climate change risks and opportunities within investments across all asset classes;
Implementing new business processes and capability for the ongoing monitoring and
management of climate change risks and opportunities; and
Protecting the fund from a sudden climate change event which may cause a global repricing of
assets.
The Methodology provides a project governance framework and resources for asset owners to
accelerate their programmes including templates, checklists, evidential dossiers, best practice

examples, research databases and implementation guidelines. It guides asset owners from start to
finish and includes every aspect of climate change capability implementation.

The scope of the Methodology is:

Fund governance and change management
Policy development
Integrating climate change into investment policy
Asset allocation
Asset consultants: mandates and processes
Investment managers: mandates and processes
Reporting of climate change data
Identification of climate change risks
Fund-level climate change management
Information systems development
Active ownership
Collaboration on climate change initiatives
Communication with members
Staff training and education
Internal (fund) climate change management

The Methodology focuses on how to affect the risk-return profile of an asset owner s investment
portfolio. There are some elements of the Methodology that should be clearly mandatory for an
asset owner to implement if they wish to consider themselves best practice, for example
formulating a fund-wide policy on the treatment of climate change risks and opportunities, but
others will create significant strategic consideration. Either way, the resulting decisions could
have a significant long-term impact on how a portfolio survives and/or prospers in a carbon
constrained economy.
The Methodology contains detailed reasoning behind each phase of implementation and why
best practice is represented in this way. Where relevant examples exist of how leading asset
owners have implemented in each area or where key evidence is available to support the
reasoning, references and links to specific items are provided.
The Methodology is available under a free license agreement; however, restrictions are made as
to its use, modification, branding, distribution, etc.
Climate change assessment
The first step towards best practice is making an assessment of the asset owners existing climate
change capabilities and risk exposures. This initial phase is flexible in that some asset owners
may begin with an assessment of their climate change capability while others may just launch
straight into the project initiative.

Design of the funds climate change blueprint

The project is initiated and the new policies, processes and systems are defined. In this stage, any
portfolio changes identified as important to re-adjusting the climate risk profile of the portfolio
are identified.
Implementation of new business processes
The investment decisions that will manage any unintended, acquired climate risk in the portfolio
will be executed. Additionally, the new business processes are implemented, staff training and
education takes place, new information systems are configured and the new processes for
managing climate risk and opportunity are executed.
Project completion and ongoing management
It may take time to fully adjust the portfolio to account for climate risks and opportunities, but
this phase is where the new processes and standards are fully implemented in the fund and its
partner organisations. The new policies, processes and systems are closely monitored to ensure
they are fully integrated into the normal running of the portfolio.

References
[1]

IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, in Press.

[2]

Chang, M.Y. (2013) Estudo de Vulnerabilidade a Extremos Climaticos no Estado do

Parana.
http://www.ivig.coppe.ufrj.br/ivig/Paginas/outras-publicacoes.aspx