Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Xac Suat PDF
Xac Suat PDF
Xac Suat PDF
XC SUT
(N THI THPT QUC GIA)
NGUYN HU BIN
https://www.facebook.com/ng.huubien
Email: ng.huubien@gmail.com
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
( 24 + 12 ) =
90
4
10
n( A) 5040
=
47, 4%
n() 10626
Trang 1
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
1
1
1
1
Ta c: n ( A) = C36
.C64
+ C36
.C35
= 3564
V y : P ( A ) =
n ( A ) 3564 9
=
=
= 0,36
n ( ) 9900 25
Hng dn
- S phn t ca khng gian mu l: n ( ) = C205 = 15504 .
- Trong 20 tm th, c 10 tm th mang s l, c 5 tm th mang s chn v chia ht cho
4, 5 tm th mang s chn v khng chia ht cho 4.
- Gi A l bin c cn tnh xc sut. Ta c: n ( A ) = C103 .C51.C51 = 3000 .
Vy, xc sut cn tnh l: P ( A) =
n ( A)
n ()
3000 125
.
=
15504 646
Hng dn
Xt cc s c 9 ch s khc nhau:
- C 9 cch chn ch s v tr u tin.
- C A98 cch chn 8 ch s tip theo
Do s cc s c 9 ch s khc nhau l: 9. A98 = 3265920
Xt cc s tha mn bi:
- C C54 cch chn 4 ch s l.
- u tin ta xp v tr cho ch s 0, do ch s 0 khng th ng u v cui nn c 7
cch xp.
- Tip theo ta c A42 cch chn v xp hai ch s l ng hai bn ch s 0.
- Cui cng ta c 6! cch xp 6 ch s cn li vo 6 v tr cn li.
Gi A l bin c cho, khi n( A) = C54 .7. A42 .6! = 302400.
Vy xc sut cn tm l P( A) =
302400
5
= .
3265920 54
Trang 2
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
135 9
=
165 11
Hng dn
- Gi A l bin c ca ngi bn trng mc tiu vi xc sut l 0.8
- B l bin c ca ngi bn trng mc tiu vi xc sut l 0.9
- Gi C l bin c cn tnh xc sut th C = A.B + A.B
Vy xc sut cn tnh l P(C)=0,8.(1-0,9)+(1-0,8).0,9=0,26
Hng dn
Ta c : = C164 = 1820
Gi A: 2nam ton, 1 l n, 1 ha n
B: 1 nam ton, 2 l n, 1 ha n
C: 1 nam ton, 1 l n, 2 ha n
Th H = A B C : C n v ba b mn
P( H ) =
Trang 3
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
135 9
=
165 11
Hng dn
- C n() = C205 C155 C105 C55 cch chia 20 bn vo 4 nhm, mi nhm 5 bn.
- Gi A l bin c 5 bn n vo cng mt nhm
- Xt 5 bn n thuc nhm A c C155 C105 C55 cch chia cc bn nam vo cc nhm cn li.
- Do vai tr cc nhm nh nhau nn c A = 4C155 C105 C55
Khi P(A) =
4
5
C20
Hng dn
4
4 4
C 420 - C10
.2
C 420
672
969
Hng dn
- S phn t khng gian mu l n() = C124 .C84 .C 44 = 34.650
- Gi A l bin c 3 i bong ca Vit nam ba bng khc nhau
- S cc kt qu thun li ca A l n( A) = 3C93 .2C63 .1.C33 = 1080
Xc xut ca bin c A l P ( A) =
n( A) 1080
54
=
=
0,31
n( 34650 173
Trang 4
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
Hng dn
- Gi l khng gian mu ca php th.
- Gi A l bin c Trong nm ln ly ra c bn ln ly c 2 bnh mn v mt ln ly
c 2 bnh ngt.
2 5
8
n() = (C ) ,
5.(C52 ) 4 .C32
9375
=
0,0087
n(A) = 5.(C ) .C P(A) =
2 5
(C8 )
1075648
2 4
5
2
3
Hng dn
- Gi A l bin c ly c 5 tm th mang s l, 5 tm th mang s chn trong ch c
1 tm th mang s chia ht cho 10.
- Chn 10 tm th trong 30 tm th c : C1030 cch chn
- Ta phi chn :
+ 5 tm th mang s l trong 15 tm mang s l c C155 cch chn.
+ 1 tm th chia ht cho 10 trong 3 tm th mang s chia ht cho 10, c : C13 cc
+ 4 tm th mang s chn nhng khng chia ht cho 10 trong 12 tm nh vy, c : C412
C155 .C124 .C31 99
Vy xc sut cn tm l : P(A) =
=
10
667
C30
Bi 15: Trong k thi hc sinh gii quc gia, lp 12A C 2 hc sinh t gii mn Ton
u l hc sinh nam v 4 hc sinh t gii mn Vt l trong c 2 hc sinh nam v 2
hc sinh n. Chn ngu nhin 4 hc sinh trong cc hc sinh t gii i d l tng kt
nm hc ca tnh. Tnh xc sut 4 hc sinh c chn c 2 nam v 2 n, ng thi cn
c c hc sinh t gii mn Ton v hc sinh t gii mn Vt l.
Hng dn
- Khng gian mu l tp hp gm tt c cc cch chn ra 3 hc sinh trong cc hc sinh
Trang 5
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
n(A) 1
=
n ( ) 4
Hng dn
- S phn t ca khng gian mu l: C114 = 330 .
- Trong s 4 vin bi c chn phi c 3 vin bi v 1 vin bi xanh.
- S cch chn 4 vin bi l: C53 .C61 = 60 .
Vy xc sut cn tm l : P =
60
2
=
330 11
Hng dn
- Mi cch xp ngu nhin 6 hc sinh thnh 1 hng dc l mt hon v ca 6 phn t
n( A) 240 1
=
= (phn t)
n() 720 3
Hng dn
+) Xt cc s t nhin c 4 ch s phn bit ly t A, gi s cc s c dng:
abcd , a 0.
Trang 6
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
l: n(B) = 420.
+) Vy: P( B) =
n( B ) 420 7
=
= .
n() 720 12
Hng dn
- S phn t ca khng gian mu l C137 = 1716
- C 1 cch chn 7 th ; I ; HC ; 2 ; 0 ; 1; 5 . Vy xc sut cn tm P =
1
1716
Hng dn
- S phn t ca khng gian mu l = C164 = 1820 .
- Gi B l bin c 4 qu ly c c ng mt qu cu mu v khng qu hai qu
mu vng. Ta xt ba kh nng sau:
Trang 7
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
B
740 37
.
=
=
1820 91
Hng dn
+ S phn t ca khng gian mu: = C105 =252
+ Bin c A: Trong nm v rt ra c t nht mt v trng thng
bin c A : Trong nm v rt ra khng c v no trng thng
S kt qu thun li cho bin c A l C85 = 56
Xc sut ca bin c A l P( A ) =
56
252
56 7
=
252 9
Hng dn
- Mi kt qu ly ra 6 sn phm t 12 sn phm ng vi t hp chp 6 ca 12, do s
kt qu c th xy ra l: n ( ) = C126 = 924
- Gi A l bin c: Ly ra 6 sn phm c 2 ph phm
- Khi A l bin c: Ly ra 6 sn phm m trong c khng qu 1 ph phm
Ta tm c n ( A ) = C22C104 = 210
Trang 8
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
Hng dn
- Gi A l bin c ly c 5 tm th mang s l, 5 tm th mang s chn trong ch c
1 tm th mang s chia ht cho 10.
10
- Chn 10 tm th trong 30 tm th c: C 30
cch chn
Ta phi chn :
+ 5 tm th mang s l trong 15 tm mang s l
+ 1 tm th mang s chia ht cho 10 trong 3 tm th mang s chia ht cho 10
+ 4 tm th mang s chn nhng khng chia ht cho 10 trong 12 tm nh vy.
Theo quy tc nhn, s cch chn thun li xy ra bin c A l: C155 C124 C 31
Xc sut cn tm l P( A) =
C155 C124 C 31
99
=
10
667
C 30
Bi 24: Chn ngu nhin 3 s t tp S = {1, 2,...,11} . Tnh xc sut tng ba s c chn
l 12
Hng dn
- S trng hp c th l C113 = 165.
- Cc b (a, b, c) m a + b + c = 12 v a < b < c l :
(1, 2, 9), (1,3,8), (1, 4, 7), (1, 5, 6), (2,3, 7), (2, 4, 6), (3, 4,5) . Vy P =
7
.
165
Hng dn
Xt cc s c 9 ch s khc nhau:
- C 9 cch chn ch s v tr u tin.
- C A98 cch chn 8 ch s tip theo
Do s cc s c 9 ch s khc nhau l: 9. A98 = 3265920
Xt cc s tha mn bi:
- C C54 cch chn 4 ch s l.
- u tin ta xp v tr cho ch s 0, do ch s 0 khng th ng u v cui nn c 7
cch xp.
NGUYN HU BIN - https://www.facebook.com/groups/nguyenhuubien
Trang 9
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
302400
5
= .
3265920 54
Hng dn
- Gi l tp hp cc cch ly ra 4 vin bi t 11 vin bi ban u, ta c n ( ) = C114 = 330
- S cc vin bi nh s l l 6, s cc vin bi nh s chn l 5.
- Gi A l bin c ly ra 4 vin bi c tng l mt s l
TH1. Trong 4 vin ly ra c 1 vin bi l, 3 vin bi chn.
Suy ra TH1 c C16 C53 = 6.10 = 60 cch
TH2. Trong 4 vin ly ra c 3 vin bi l, 1 vin bi chn
Suy ra TH2 c C36 C15 = 20.5 = 100 cch
Vy n ( A ) = C16 C35 + C36C15 = 160 . Suy ra P ( A ) =
n (A)
n ()
==
160 16
=
330 33
Bi 27: Trng THPT Trn Quc Tun c 15 hc sinh l on vin u t, trong khi
12 c 3 nam v 3 n, khi 11 c 2 nam v 3 n, khi 10 c 2 nam v 2 n. on trng
chn ra 1 nhm gm 4 hc sinh l on vin u t tham gia lao ng Ngha trang lit
s. Tnh xc sut nhm c chn c c nam v n, ng thi mi khi c 1 hc sinh
nam.
Hng dn
- S phn t ca khng gian mu: = C154 = 1365
- Gi bin c A: nhm c chn c c nam v n, ng thi mi khi c 1 hc sinh
nam
- S phn t ca bin c A: A = C31.C21 .C21 .C81 = 96 . Vy: P( A) =
96
32
=
1365 455
Hng dn
NGUYN HU BIN - https://www.facebook.com/groups/nguyenhuubien
Trang 10
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
= 9.9.8.7.6 = 27216
- Xt bin c A: S c nm ch s ly ra tho mn ch s ng sau ln hn ch s
27216
216
Hng dn
Gi A l bin c: trong 8 bi ly ra c s bi mu vng bng vi s bi mu
Trng hp 1: Chn c 2 bi vng, 2 bi v 4 bi xanh.
Trng hp 2: Chn c 3 bi vng, 3 bi v 2 bi xanh.
Trng hp 3: Chn c 4 bi vng, 4 bi .
n ( A ) = C 62 C 52 C 44 + C 63 C 53 C 42 + C 64 C 54 = 1425
P ( A) =
n ( A ) 1425 95
=
=
n ( ) 6435 429
Hng dn
- Gi w l khng gian mu: tp hp cc cch chn ngu nhin mi hp 1 vin bi
n( w) = 7.6 = 42
NGUYN HU BIN - https://www.facebook.com/groups/nguyenhuubien
Trang 11
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
n( A) 20 10
=
=
n( w) 42 21
Hng dn
Gi l khng gian mu.
- Chn 3 th bt k trong 50 th c C503 cch chn
3
s phn t trong khng gian mu l: n ( ) = C50
= 19600
660
33
=
19600 980
Bi 32: Trong cm thi xt cng nhn tt nghip THPT th sinh phi thi 4 mn trong
c 3 mn bt buc l Ton, Vn, Ngoi ng v 1 mn do th sinh t chn trong s cc
mn: Vt l, Ha hc, Sinh hc, Lch s v a l. Trng X c 40 hc sinh ng k d
thi, trong 10 hc sinh chn mn Vt l v 20 hc sinh chn mn Ha hc. Ly ngu
nhin 3 hc sinh bt k ca trng X. Tnh xc sut trong 3 hc sinh lun c hc
sinh chn mn Vt l v hc sinh chn mn Ha hc.
Hng dn
- S phn t ca khng gian mu l n = C403
- Gi A l bin c 3 hc sinh c chn lun c hc sinh chn mn Vt l v hc sinh
chn mn Ha hc
1
1
- S phn t ca bin c A l n A = C101 .C202 + C102 .C20
+ C20
.C101 .C101
Vy xc sut xy ra bin c A l PA =
n A 120
=
n 247
Trang 12
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
Hng dn
- Gi A l bin c: trong 8 bi ly ra c s bi mu vng bng vi s bi mu
Trng hp 1: Chn c 2 bi vng, 2 bi v 4 bi xanh.
Trng hp 2: Chn c 3 bi vng, 3 bi v 2 bi xanh.
Trng hp 3: Chn c 4 bi vng, 4 bi .
n ( A ) = C 62 C 52 C 44 + C 63 C 53 C 42 + C 64 C 54 = 1425
n ( A ) 1425 95
=
=
n ( ) 6435 429
Hng dn
- Khng gian mu l tp hp tt c cc b gm 4 hc sinh c chn t 25 hc sinh
nn ta c: n ( ) = C254 = 12650
- Gi A l bin c 4 hc sinh c chn c c nam v n
C cc trng hp:
+ Chn 1 n v 3 nam: c C101 C153 = 4550
+ Chn 2 n v 2 nam: c C102 C152 = 4725
+ Chn 3 n v 1 nam: c C103 C151 = 1800
Suy ra s cch chn 4 hc sinh c c nam v n l: 4550 + 4725 + 1800 = 11075
Vy: P ( A) =
n (A )
n ()
11075 443
=
0,875
12650 506
n xanh
Hng dn
- Ta c: n ( ) = C153 , n ( A ) = C72 .C81 P ( A ) =
24
65
Trang 13
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
Hng dn
- Chn ngu nhin 4 nh khoa hc trong 16 nh khoa hc c C164 cch
+ Chn 2 nh ton hc nam, 1 nh vt l n, 1 nh ha hc n c C82 .C51.C31 cch
+ Chn 1 nh ton hc nam, 2 nh vt l n, 1 nh ha hc n c C81.C52 .C31 cch
+ Chn 1 nh ton hc nam, 1 nh vt l n, 2 nh ha hc n c C81.C51.C32 cch
C82 .C51.C31 + C81.C52 .C31 + C81.C51.C32 3
Vy xc sut cn tm l : P =
=
C164
7
Hng dn
- C 6 kh nng xy ra khi tung sc sc nn s phn t khng gian mu: n() = 6
- Gi A l bin c: phng trnh x 2 + bx + 2 = 0 (*) c hai nghim phn bit
- (*) c 2 nghim phn bit > 0 b 2 8 > 0 b {3; 4;5;6} n( A) = 4 .
Xc sut cn tm P ( A) =
n( A) 2
=
n () 3
Hng dn
- Gi l tp hp tt c cc cch ly ra 3 vin bi trong s 12 vin bi.
Ta c: = C123 = 220.
- Gi A l bin s ly c 3 vin bi mu . S cc cch ly ra 3 vin bi mu trong
7 vin bi mu l A = C73 = 35.
- Vy xc sut P(A) ly ra c 3 vin bi mu l : P ( A) =
35
7
= .
220 44
Trang 14
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
Hng dn
- S t gic to thnh vi 4 nh ly t cc nh ca a gic u l C304 .
- Suy ra n( S ) = n() = C304
- Gi A l bin c c t gic l mt hnh ch nht.
- S ng cho a gic qua tm ca a gic u: 15
- S hnh ch nht to thnh : C152 n( A) = C152 p ( A) =
n( A)
1
=
n() 261
Hng dn
- Gi a1a2 a3a4 a5 l s t nhin cn tm, a1 , a2 , a3 , a4 , a5 thuc {1; 2;3; 4;5}
- Sp ch s 3 vo ba v tr, c C53 = 10 (cch)
- Cn li hai v tr, 4 ch s. Chn hai ch s xp vo hai v tr , c C42 = 12 (cch)
- Vy khng gian mu c 10.12 = 120 phn t
- Gi A l bin c: s c chn chia ht cho 3, c hai phng n:
+ Hai ch s cn li l 1 v 5, c C53 .2! = 20 s
+ Hai ch s cn li l 2 v 4, c C53 .2! = 20 s
Vy bin c A c 40 phn t. Xc sut ca bin c A l: P =
40 1
=
120 3
Bi 41: Mt t c 5 hc sinh nam v 6 hc sinh n. Gio vin chn ngu nhin 3 hc sinh
lm trc nht . Tnh xc sut 3 hc sinh c chn c c nam v n.
Hng dn
+ n ( ) = C113 = 165
+ S cch chn 3 hc sinh c c nam v n l C52 .C61 + C51.C62 = 135
Do xc sut 3 hc sinh c chn c c nam v n l
135 9
=
165 11
Bi 42: Mt ngi chn ngu nhin hai chic giy t bn i giy c khc nhau. Tnh
xc sut hai chic chn c to thnh mt i
Hng dn
NGUYN HU BIN - https://www.facebook.com/groups/nguyenhuubien
Trang 15
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
n() = C82 = 28
- K hiu A l bin c chn c hai chic giy cng mt i. S cch chn mt i trong
4 i giy 4 cch. Do n(A) = 4. V vy P(A) =
1
7
Hng dn
Hng dn
- Gi A l bin c: Chn c 90% hc sinh t yu cu.
30
- Chn ngu nhin 30 hc sinh t 300 hc sinh c C300
cch chn.
Trang 16
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
Xc sut ca bin c A l P ( A) =
3
C5027 .C250
1,6.1021 .
30
C300
Hng dn
Gi A l bin c 3 hc sinh n cnh nhau
+ S bin c ng kh nng: Xp 7 hc sinh ngu nhin, c s hon v l 7!
+ S cch xp c 3 hc sinh n cnh nhau:
Coi 3 hc sinh n l 1 phn t, kt hp vi 4 hc sinh nam suy ra c 5 phn t, c 5! cch
sp xp. Vi mi cch sp xp li c 3! cch hon v 3 hc sinh n. Vy c 5!.3! cch
sp xp.
+ Xc sut ca bin c A l: p ( A ) =
5!.3! 1
= .
7!
7
( p( A) 0.14) .
Hng dn
- Gi s cn tm ca tp S c dng abc ( a 0, a b c, a, b, c {0,1,2,3,4,5,6} )
- S cch chn ch s a c 6 cch (v a 0 )
- S cch chn ch s b c 6 cch (v b a )
- S cch chn ch s c c 5 cch (v c a, c b )
- Vy S c 6.6.5 = 180 (s). S phn t ca khng gian mu l = 180 .
- Gi A l bin c s c chn c ch s hng n v gp i ch s hng trm. Khi
A
15
1
=
= .
180 12
Hng dn
NGUYN HU BIN - https://www.facebook.com/groups/nguyenhuubien
Trang 17
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
Hng dn
+ S cch ly ra cng mt lc 3 bng n t 52 bng n l C352 = 22100 (cch)
+ Gi A l bin c Trong 3 bng n c ly ra c t nht 1 bng b hng
A l bin c Trong 3 bng ly ra khng c bng no hng
s cch ly ra 3 bng m khng c bng no hng l C352 4 = 17296 (cch)
p(A) = 1 P(A) = 1
17296 1201
=
22100 5525
Hng dn
- S phn t ca khng gian mu l
8
C15
= 6435
- Vy xc sut l
p=
3690
6453
Trang 18
TUYN CHN 50 BI TON IN HNH V XC SUT TRONG THI THPT QUC GIA
Hng dn
- S hc sinh trong lp hc l 25+15=40
- Mi cch chn 3 hc sinh trong 40 hc sinh l mt t hp chp 3 ca 40 nn khng gian
mu gm cc t hp chp 3 ca 40 n() = C403
- Gi A l bin c chn c nhm 3 hc sinh c t nht 1 hc sinh n A l bin c
3
n( A) C25
115
379
= 3 =
p ( A) = 1 p (A) =
494
n() C40 494
Fb: https://www.facebook.com/ng.huubien
Trang 19