Genting Plantations Neutral: Ending FY13 On A High

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Results Review, 27 February 2014

Genting Plantations (GENP MK)

Neutral (Maintained)

Agriculture - Plantation
Market Cap: USD2,437m

Target Price:
Price:

MYR11.20
MYR10.50
Macro
Risks

Ending FY13 On a High

Growth
Value

Genting Plantation (GENP MK)


Price Close

Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS)

12.0

133

11.5

127

11.0

122

10.5

116

10.0

111

9.5

105

9.0

99

8.5

94

8.0
3

88

0
0
.
2
0
0
GPs FY13 core net profit overshot our and consensus expectations, .
0
coming in at 140-145% of both FY13 forecasts, due to lower-than- 0
expected unit production costs and stronger-than-expected property 0
contributions. While we like the stocks growth prospects and solid
management, its valuations remain uninviting at this juncture. We
maintain our NEUTRAL call, with a SOP-based FV of MYR11.20.

2
2

Jan-14

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Feb-13

Vol m

Source: Bloomberg

Avg Turnover (MYR/USD)


Cons. Upside (%)
Upside (%)
52-wk Price low/high (MYR)
Free float (%)

2.73m/0.83m
0.0
6.7
8.39 - 11.7
30

Shareholders (%)
Genting Berhad
EPF
Kumpulan Wang Persaraan
(Diperbadankan)

53.6
14.9
3.1

Shariah compliant

.
2
0
.
2

Above. Genting Plantations (GP)s FY13 core net profit was above our
and consensus expectations, coming in at 140-145% of the respective
FY13 forecasts. The main variance was the lower-than-expected unit
production cost in 4Q13 of MYR1,054/tonne (down 11% q-o-q), strongerthan-expected property contributions, as well as a lower-than-expected
overall effective tax rate of 15% in FY13 (versus our 23% projection). GP
recorded an exceptional loss of MYR22.3m in 4Q13 due to unrealised
losses on its USD-denominated debt.
Core net profit rose 10% y-o-y in FY13 while turnover grew 12%. The
net profit increase was due to improvements in its property division
(EBIT +148%), higher FFB production (+10%) and lower effective tax
rates, offset by a 15% drop in CPO average selling price (ASP), a 14%
decline in palm kernel (PK) ASP and a 6% y-o-y rise in production cost.
Briefing highlights: i) GP expects FY14 fresh fruit bunches (FFB)
production to grow 10-12% y-o-y (flat growth in Malaysia and a doubling
of production in Indonesia), which is slightly lower than our 15%
projection; ii) GP expects FY14 costs to be lower by 10-15% y-o-y, as it
has locked in 70% of its fertiliser requirements for Malaysia at prices
which are 23% lower y-o-y; iii) new planting of 5,800ha done in FY13,
targeting 6,000ha for FY14; and iv) the companys unbilled property
sales currently total MYR75m, and it expects to record new sales of c.
MYR200m for FY14.
Maintain NEUTRAL. We tweak our FY14 forecast 2.4% higher and
introduce our FY15 forecasts. Post earnings revision, we raise our SOPbased FV slightly to RM11.20 (from RM11.00), based on an unchanged
18x CY14 target P/E for the plantation division and the RNAV of its
property development landbank. While we like the stocks growth
prospects and solid management, its valuations remain uninviting at this
juncture. We maintain our NEUTRAL recommendation on the stock.

Forecasts and Valuations

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

1,336

1,233

1,384

1,555

1,795

Reported net profit (MYRm)

442

327

228

371

466

Recurring net profit (MYRm)

438

321

299

371

466

Recurring net profit growth (%)

38.1

(26.6)

(7.0)

24.0

25.7

Total turnover (MYRm)

Dec-14F

Dec-15F

Recurring EPS (MYR)

0.58

0.42

0.39

0.49

0.61

Hoe Lee Leng +603 9207 7605

DPS (MYR)

0.12

0.09

0.36

0.11

0.14

hoe.lee.leng@rhbgroup.com

Recurring P/E (x)

18.2

24.8

26.7

21.5

17.1

P/B (x)

2.46

2.33

2.33

2.14

1.98

P/CF (x)

14.2

35.5

22.1

38.9

15.8

1.2

0.9

3.4

1.0

1.3

12.0

19.1

18.8

15.1

11.9

9.8

6.7

10.4

12.0

1.0

8.0

8.8

(0.3)

2.4

Dividend Yield (%)


EV/EBITDA (x)
Return on average equity (%)
Net debt to equity (%)

14.5
net cash

Our vs consensus EPS (%)

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

net cash

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Genting Plantations (GENP MK)


27 February 2014
Figure 1: Quarterly results
FYE Dec (MYRm)

4QFY12

3QFY13

4QFY13

q-o-q
(%)

y-o-y
(%)

FY12

FY13

y-o-y
(%)

261.7

278.7

337.0

21

29

1081.4

1079.6

(0)

78.4

35.8

65.0

82

(17)

152.0

270.6

78

0.0

27.9

5.8

(79)

n.m.

0.0

33.7

n.m.

Turnover

340.1

342.4

407.8

19

20

1233.4

1383.9

12

Plantation

81.1

69.2

135.9

96

68

354.1

305.3

(14)

Property devt

16.8

11.3

25.3

124

51

33.1

82.0

148

Others

(6.7)

(5.0)

(6.8)

36

(31.2)

(30.7)

(2)

EBIT

91.2

75.5

154.5

105

69

355.9

356.7

EBIT Margin (%)

26.8

22.1

37.9

28.9

25.8

Net inc/(exp)

6.6

5.0

5.3

(20)

28.3

22.8

(19)

Associates

2.5

3.2

7.1

122

184

12.3

17.9

46

Exceptionals

(1.4)

(39.7)

(22.3)

(44)

1,493

7.3

(97.1)

(1430)

Pretax profit

98.9

44.0

144.6

229

46

403.8

300.3

(26)

Pretax Margin (%)

29.1

12.9

35.5

32.7

21.7

(12.6)

(16.3)

(36.2)

(69.4)

(44.2)

12.8

37.1

25.0

17.2

14.7

0.7

8.8

(3.4)

(139)

(606)

4.5

11.4

n.m.

Net profit

87.0

36.5

105.0

188

21

339.0

267.5

(21)

Core net profit

88.4

76.2

127.3

67

44

331.7

364.6

10

Net Profit Margin (%)

26.0

22.3

31.2

26.9

26.3

EPS (sen)

11.5

4.8

13.8

189

21

31.6

16.2

(49)

6.2

33.0

0.0

(100)

(100)

3.2

35.8

1024

Plantation

Property devt
Others

Taxation
Effective tax rate (%)

Minority interest

Net DPS

122

187

Comments
15% y-o-y fall in CPO
average price, 14% drop in
PK average price offset by a
10% y-o-y rise in FFB
production
MYR85m recorded from sale
of industrial land in 1Q13
Relating to biodiesel sales
from
its
200,000-tonne
biodiesel plant

Y-o-y margin fell due to


lower CPO prices
MYR20m profit recognition
from sale of industrial land in
1Q13

FY13 EI includes MYR35m


donated
to
Yayasan
Gemilang
1
Malaysia
(MYR31m from plantation
division and MYR4m from
property
division),
MYR61.9m unrealised forex
loss on debt and MYR0.3m
asset write-off
Filtered down from EBIT and
EI loss

(36)

Filtered down from PBT and


lower effective tax rate

3Q13 net DPS reflects


special interim cash dividend
announced at end-Aug and
restricted
warrant
reinvestment
plan.
No
dividend
announced
for
4Q13

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Genting Plantations (GENP MK)


27 February 2014
Figure 2: Operational stats
FYE Dec (MYRm)

4QFY12

3QFY13

4QFY13

q-o-q
(%)

y-o-y
(%)

FY12

FY13

y-o-y
(%)

Average CPO price


(MYR/tonne)
Average PK price
(MYR/tonne)
FFB Prodtn ('000 t)

2,219

2,353

2,505

13

2,784

2,378

(15)

1,097

1,313

1,548

18

41

1,543

1,324

(14)

460

386

466

21

1,392

1,526

10

Comments

185,000
tonnes
from
Indonesia in FY13. Excluding
Indonesian
production,
Malaysias FFB production
rose 2% y-o-y

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Figure 3: Forecast assumptions


Dec-11

Dec-12

1,372

1,473

1,620

1,821

2,096

275

293

315

339

380

66

70

69

69

71

Average CPO price (MYR/t)

3,240

2,784

2,292

2,552

2,712

Average PK price (MYR/t)

2,235

1,543

1,230

1,705

1,705

FFB Produced (000 t)


CPO Production (000 t)
PK Production (000 t)

Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F

Source: RHB estimates

Figure 4: SOP valuation


Plantation earnings
Property earnings
SOP (MYRm)

Valuation basis

FV (MYRm)

18x CY14 earnings

6,004.7

RNAV

2,490.2
8,494.9

SOP/share (MYR)

11.19

Shares (m)

758.85

Source: RHB estimates

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Genting Plantations (GENP MK)


27 February 2014

Financial Exhibits
Profit & Loss (MYRm)
Total turnover

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14F

Dec-15F

1,336

1,233

1,384

1,555

1,795

Cost of sales

(605)

(682)

(858)

(899)

(962)

Gross profit

732

552

526

656

832

Gen & admin expenses

(72)

(66)

(74)

(83)

(96)

Selling expenses

(61)

(57)

(64)

(71)

(82)

Other operating costs

(33)

(73)

(32)

(36)

(41)

Operating profit

565

356

357

465

612

Operating EBITDA

609

412

424

545

700

Depreciation of fixed assets

(44)

(56)

(68)

(80)

(88)

Operating EBIT

565

356

357

465

612

Net income from investments

12

18

12

12

Interest income

26

32

28

18

10

Interest expense

(2)

(4)

(5)

(5)

(97)

601

404

300

491

630

(159)

(82)

(80)

(118)

(158)

Exceptional income - net


Pre-tax profit
Taxation
Minority interests

(1)

(4)
-

Profit after tax & minorities

442

327

228

371

(2)

466

(7)

Reported net profit

442

327

228

371

466

Recurring net profit

438

321

299

371

466

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14F

Dec-15F

565

356

357

465

612

Depreciation & amortisation

44

56

68

80

88

Change in working capital

81

(84)

14

(269)

(47)

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Cash flow (MYRm)


Operating profit

Other operating cash flow

16

(25)

695

344

414

276

653

Interest received

26

32

28

18

10

Interest paid

(2)

(4)

(5)

(5)

(4)

(157)

(149)

(76)

(85)

(155)

Operating cash flow

Tax paid
Cash flow from operations

561

224

360

205

504

Capex

(253)

(332)

(423)

(400)

(400)

Other investing cash flow

(125)

(64)

(5)

(57)

(68)

Cash flow from investing activities

(378)

(396)

(428)

(457)

(468)

(73)

(92)

(319)

(24)

(91)

(0)

(0)

181

Dividends paid
Proceeds from issue of shares
Increase in debt

162

216

106

Other financing cash flow

(12)

(17)

(21)

78

106

(52)

(186)

(91)

756

1,017

951

831

393

(66)

(120)

(438)

(56)

951

831

393

337

Cash flow from financing activities


Cash at beginning of period
Total cash generated
Implied cash at end of period

261
1,016

(161)
-

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Genting Plantations (GENP MK)


27 February 2014

Financial Exhibits
Balance Sheet (MYRm)

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14F

Dec-15F

1,017

951

831

393

337

Inventories

129

127

89

328

353

Accounts receivable

113

161

234

263

303

Other current assets

148

228

244

261

264

1,407

1,468

1,398

1,244

1,258

Total cash and equivalents

Total current assets


Total investments

156

159

180

192

204

2,339

2,892

3,036

3,356

3,669

Intangible assets

187

174

163

163

163

Total other assets

17

32

78

78

78

Total non-current assets

2,699

3,256

3,457

3,789

4,113

Total assets

4,106

4,724

4,854

5,033

5,371

202

258

311

326

349

Tangible fixed assets

Short-term debt
Accounts payable
Other current liabilities

29

13

45

48

Total current liabilities

231

264

330

378

403

Total long-term debt

427

703

861

700

700

96

104

59

59

59

Total non-current liabilities

523

807

920

759

759

Total liabilities

754

1,071

1,251

1,137

1,162

Share capital

379

379

379

379

379

2,747

2,980

2,849

3,138

3,445

Other liabilities

Retained earnings reserve


Other reserves
Shareholders' equity
Minority interests
Other equity

107

64

198

198

198

3,234

3,424

3,426

3,716

4,022

118

229

178

180

187

(0)

Total equity

3,352

3,653

3,604

3,896

4,209

Total liabilities & equity

4,106

4,724

4,854

5,033

5,371

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Key Ratios (MYR)

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14F

Dec-15F

Revenue growth (%)

35.2

(7.7)

12.2

12.4

15.4

Operating profit growth (%)

37.9

(37.0)

0.2

30.5

31.5

Net profit growth (%)

36.3

(26.0)

(30.3)

62.7

25.7

EPS growth (%)

41.1

(26.0)

(30.3)

62.7

25.7

Bv per share growth (%)

12.7

5.9

0.1

8.5

8.3

Operating margin (%)

42.3

28.9

25.8

29.9

34.1

Net profit margin (%)

33.1

26.5

16.5

23.8

26.0

Return on average assets (%)

11.6

7.4

4.8

7.5

9.0

Return on average equity (%)

14.5

9.8

6.7

10.4

12.0

Net debt to equity (%)

(17.6)

(6.8)

1.0

8.0

8.8

DPS

0.12

0.09

0.36

0.11

0.14

Recurrent cash flow per share

0.74

0.30

0.47

0.27

0.66

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Genting Plantations (GENP MK)


27 February 2014

SWOT Analysis
Good reputation in marketplace as an efficient planter

New rules and


regulations
governing
landbank
acquisition or
expansion in
Indonesia could
limit future longterm growth

Its strategy of consistently planting up new areas has


ensured stable production growth from trees coming
into maturity every year

Continued
scrutiny of the
palm oil industry
by the
environmental
groups could
have a negative
effect on the
company

Given its stable


operating cash
flow, GP has
the capability of
expanding its
landbank via
acquisitions and
M&As, if
opportunities
arise.

High concentration of its plantation land in Sabah,


Malaysia means any extreme weather conditions
there may significantly affect productivity
Having no downstream operations in Indonesia, GP
becomes highly dependent on local refiners

P/E (x) vs EPS growth

P/BV (x) vs ROAE

10

-10%

-25%

-40%

P/E (x) (lhs)

EPS growth (rhs)

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

2.0

11%

1.5

8%

1.0

5%

0.5

3%

0.0

0%

P/B (x) (lhs)

Jan-15

5%

13%

Jan-14

20%

15

2.5

Jan-13

20

16%

Jan-12

35%

3.0

Jan-11

25

Jan-15

50%

Jan-14

30

Jan-13

65%

Jan-12

80%

35

Jan-11

40

Return on average equity (rhs)

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Company Profile
Genting Plantations is a 53.6%-owned subsidiary of the Genting group. It has 261,000 ha of plantation landbank, of which close to
200,000ha is in Indonesia. It also has property development projects in Johor, Melaka and Kedah. The group has also invested
significantly in biotechnology via the use of genomics to raise productivity and sustainability.

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Genting Plantations (GENP MK)


27 February 2014

Recommendation Chart
Price Close
11.0

10.9

10.3

8.9

8.6

9.3
9.3

10

9.5

7.7
8.6

9.9

Neutral

7.7

Buy
3
Feb-09

11

9.7

6.1

Recommendations & Target Price

NR

12

8
7
6
5
4
Jun-10

Sell

Trading Buy

Sep-11

Take Profit

Not Rated

Dec-12

Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg


Date

Recommendation

2014-02-10

Neutral

Target Price Price


11.0

10.1

2013-12-12

Neutral

10.9

11.1

2013-11-28

Neutral

10.3

10.9

2013-08-30

Trading Buy

9.3

9.5

2013-08-29

Neutral

9.3

8.9

2013-05-30

Neutral

9.5

9.0

2013-05-20

Neutral

8.9

8.8

2013-03-12

neutral

8.6

9.0

2013-03-07

neutral

8.6

8.9

2013-02-28

neutral

8.6

8.5

Source : RHB estimates, Bloomberg

See important disclosures at the end of this report

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings


Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage

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8

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DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings
Kuala Lumpur

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Tel : +(60) 3 9280 2185
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Central, Hong Kong
Tel : +(852) 2525 1118
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Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy:Malaysia
Share price
may exceed 15% over theRHB
nextOSK
3 months,
however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Research Office
Securities Hong Kong Ltd. (formerly known
DMG & Partners
Neutral: Share
mayInstitute
fall within
months
as 12
OSK
Securities
Securities Pte. Ltd.
RHB price
Research
Sdn the
Bhdrange of +/- 10% over the next
Take Profit:
Target
price One,
has RHB
beenCentre
attained. Look to accumulate at lower
Honglevels
Kong Ltd.)
Level
11, Tower
10 Collyer Quay
Sell: Share price may
more than 10% over the next 12 months
Jalanfall
TunbyRazak
12th Floor
#09-08 Ocean Financial Centre
Lumpur
World-Wide House
Singapore 049315
Not Rated: Stock isKuala
not within
regular research coverage

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Phnom
Penh
This research is issuedJakarta
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Ltd. into any
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OSK Indochina
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consult
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before
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any investments
or Co.
entering
in relation
to any
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