2016 General Election

Survey Results
Matt Grossmann, IPPSR Director

State of the State Survey

Round 73 Early Release
September 1st October 30th

Sample Size

Margin of Error

Michigan Adults

866

3.3%

Likely Voters

746

3.6%

Certain Voters

663

3.8%

Horse Race
Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Likely Voters
2 candidates
Likely Voters
4 candidates
Certain Voters
2 candidates
Certain Voters
4 candidates

52%

32%

47%

28%

54%

32%

50%

28%

11%

4%

9%

4%

Clinton
Trump

30-Oct

28-Oct

26-Oct

24-Oct

22-Oct

20-Oct

18-Oct

16-Oct

2nd Debate

14-Oct

12-Oct

10-Oct

8-Oct

6-Oct

1st Debate

4-Oct

2-Oct

30-Sep

28-Sep

26-Sep

70

24-Sep

80

22-Sep

20-Sep

18-Sep

16-Sep

14-Sep

12-Sep

Presidential Vote 2 candidates

Likely Voters, 7-Day Windows
3rd Debate

60

50

40

30

20

10

Clinton
Trump
Johnson
Stein

30-Oct

28-Oct

26-Oct

24-Oct

22-Oct

20-Oct

18-Oct

16-Oct

2nd Debate

14-Oct

12-Oct

10-Oct

8-Oct

6-Oct

1st Debate

4-Oct

2-Oct

30-Sep

28-Sep

26-Sep

24-Sep

70

22-Sep

20-Sep

18-Sep

16-Sep

14-Sep

12-Sep

Presidential Vote 4 candidates

Likely Voters, 7-Day Windows
3rd Debate

60

50

40

30

20

10

Voting For and Against

For My Candidate

Against Other Candidate

Clinton Voters

49%

47%

Trump Voters

41%

57%

Party Identification
100

96

95
89

90
80

74

70

70
57

60
50
40

31

30
18

20
10

31

11

9
2

0
Strong
Republican

Not Strong
Republican

Lean Republican

Neither

Trump

Clinton

Lean Democrat

Not Strong
Democrat

Strong Democrat

Political Ideology
100
90
80

86
72

72

70

66

61

60
50

46

40

35

30
20

91

24

20

14
7

10

0
Very
Conservative

Somewhat
Conservative

Lean
Conservative

Middle
Trump

Clinton

Lean Liberal

Somewhat
Liberal

Very Liberal

Race
Non-White White, Non-Hispanic
Clinton

80%

45%

Trump

9%

39%

Gender
Male

Female

Clinton

44%

60%

Trump

42%

23%

Education
All Voters

High School or Some

Less
College

College
Grad

Grad
School

Clinton

49%

51%

48%

66%

Trump

40%

34%

33%

23%

Only White Non-Hispanic

Clinton

32%

45%

42%

58%

Trump

54%

38%

40%

27%

Age
18-29

30-64

65+

Clinton

50%

55%

49%

Trump

26%

32%

37%

Michigan Region
Clinton Trump
Detroit
77%
5%
Southeast Michigan
54%
32%
Southwest Michigan 56%
35%
East Central
25%
43%
West Central
52%
33%
Northern Michigan
48%
36%
Upper Peninsula
42%
33%

34%
36%

28%
48%
37%

31%

$150,000 or More

20%
19%
55%

$100,000-149,999

30%
28%

46%

$90,000-99,999

39%
44%

$70,000-89,999

50%

$60,000-69,999

58%

$50,000-59,999

40%

$40,000-49,999

50%

$30,000-39,999

70%
71%

$20,000-29,999

80%

$10,000-19,999

60%

Less than $10,000

Income

68%
62%
52%
44%
40%

31%

22%

Clinton

Trump

10%

0%

By Primary Candidate Supported

Hillary
Clinton

Bernie
Sanders

Donald
Other
Trump Republican

Clinton

97%

72%

2%

15%

Trump

2%

15%

92%

60%

Aversion to Social Change

Our Country is Changing Too Fast, Undermining American Values
90

84

80

72

70
60

52

53

53

50
40

32

30

30

28

20

14

10

0
Strongly Agree: 41%

Agree 24%

Neither 7%
Clinton

Trump

Disagree 13%

Strongly Disagree 17%

Acceptance of Social Change

By Accepting Diverse Cultures & Lifestyles, Our Country is Improving
80

74

70

63

63

60
51

50

46

40
31

30

35
25

23

20
10

11

0
Strongly Agree: 37%

Agree: 32%

Neither 7%
Clinton

Trump

Disagree: 11%

Strongly Disagree: 12%

Racial Resentment
Many Minorities Overcame Prejudice, Blacks Should Do Same Without Favors
100
86

90
80
69

70

62

60

54

50
37

40
30

42
26

25

19

20

10
0
Strongly Agree: 24%

Agree: 25%

Neither: 13%
Clinton

Trump

Disagree: 17%

Strongly Disagree: 21%

Perceived Racial Disadvantage

Generations of Slavery/Discrimination Make it Hard for Blacks to Rise
80

74

70
59

60

59
49

50

46
39

40
28

30

27

25

20
10

10

0
Strongly Agree: 27%

Agree 28%

Neither: 9%
Clinton

Trump

Disagree: 19%

Strongly Disagree: 18%

White Ethnocentrism
Likely Voters, White Non-Hispanics Only
80%

74%

72%

70%
60%

56%

53%

50%
40%
31%

30%
20%

21%

27%

19%

10%
0%
Prefer Whites to Blacks: 16%

Prefer Whites to Latinos: 16%

Clinton

Prefer Whites to Muslims: 56%

Trump

Not Ethnocentric: 43%

Vote for Congress

Democrat for
Congress

Republican for
Congress

Trump Voters

9%

76%

Clinton Voters

79%

6%

All Voters

45%

32%

How Many Know Vice Presidential Candidates?

70%
61%

60%

55%

50%
40%

37%
32%

30%
20%
10%
0%
Tim Kaine

Mike Pence
All Adults

Likely Voters

Michigan Public vs. Michigan Insiders

70%

63%

60%
52%

50%

43%

49%
45%

40%
32%

30%

32%

31%
27%27%

18%

20%

17%
14%

10%

16%

3%

3%

0%
Clinton

Trump

Presidential Preference

Clinton

Sanders

Trump

Kasich

Primary Support Recall

Insiders

Public

Republican Democrat
Vote for Congress

Expectations
100%

93%

92%

90%
80%
70%
60%

63%

61%

50%
40%
30%

24%

23%

20%
8%

10%

7%

0%
Clinton

Trump

Clinton

Who Will Win Nationwide?

Michigan Insiders

Trump

Who Will Win Michigan?

Michigan Public

Insider Expectations
# of Electoral Votes for # of Republican Seats in MI
Clinton
House
Michigan
Insiders
Forecast

330/538

57/110

402 Michigan Insiders, Michigan Policy Insiders Panel, October 19-31

2016 General Election Survey

Questions?
Matt Grossmann, grossm63@msu.edu