Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

4 TPP
It [TPP] is the right thing to do. Its good for the country, its
good for America, its good for the world.

TPP ...
-Barack Obama- 1

I oppose the TPP agreement -- and that means before and after
the election.

TPP
- Hillary Clinton - 2

The Trans-Pacific Partnership is another disaster done and

pushed by special interests who want to rape our country.

TPP

- Donald Trump - 3

TPP
TPP TPP
TPP
TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership)
12
GDP 40%
1 TPP

Remarks by Barack Obama delivered at a press conference, 23 May 2016, Hanoi

Remarks by Hillary Clinton published by the Oregon fair trade campaign, 7 May 2016
3
Remarks by Donald Trump delivered at campaign rally in St. Clairsville, 28 June 2016, Ohio
2

4 TPP

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

TPP TPP
6 30 TPP

TPP (geopolitics)
TPP
TPP

TPP
TPP

TPP 4 (1)
TPP (2)
(3) (4) 4

Q1

Q2

TPP

Q3

Q4

11

13

.
Managing Partner
/

4 TPP

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

Q1:
TPP

2
9 12
TPP (Free Trade
Agreement: FTA) 3 FTA
10%

(quota)




(market access)

(Foreign Direct Investment:
FDI)
TPP
(market access)

4 TPP

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

2

1. 9 12 TPP
(Free Trade Agreement: FTA)5 3 FTA
10%
TPP 12
40% 3 FTA
10% (
1)
1: TPP FTA 10%

TPP
2011-2015
: %

:
:

* FTA

. (2559). FTA .

4 TPP

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

2.

10 1.4%6
50%7
1.6%8

11.4% 8.1% 3%

10

0%
0% 10
25-30
9
10


2%

TPP

(Foreign Direct Investment: FDI) 2

1.
1 4 FDI

World Bank. (2016). World development indicators.

7
International Trade Centre. (2016). Trade map - Trade statistics for international business development.
2011-2015
8
World Trade Organization. (2016). Integrated database.
(Harmonize System: HS) 84, HS 85,
HS 12, HS 61-62 HS 8702-8704
9
. (2559). TPP .
6

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Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

FDI 10

FDI
TPP

11 4
1 4 FDI ( 2)


2
14.5%-25%12
0% 2011-2015
3%
13
2 : 1 4 FDI

FDI 2011 - 2015

: %

: International Trade Centre

10

3 (1) FDI
(2)

(3) TPP
11
International Trade Centre. (2016). Trade map - Trade statistics for international business development.
2011-2015
60%
12
World Trade Organization. (2016). Integrated database.
13
. (2016). TPP .

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Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

2. FDI
14
10
15
TPP

Japan External Trade Organization. (2016). Survey of business sentiment on Japanese corporations in
Thailand for the 2nd half of 2015.
15
World Bank. (2016). World development indicators.
14

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Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

Q2:

4 (1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
1.

TPP


(World Trade Organization: WTO)
30-40%16 TPP
0%

1
30% 0% 5-10

17
16
17

Tran Cong Thang and Dang Kim Khoi (2016). Impacts of TPP on Vietnams Domestic Agriculture and its
Commensurate Adjustment Policies. United State Department of Agriculture. (2016). Trans-Pacific
Partnership benefits to US agriculture.

4 TPP

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

[TPP] is largely about
Hollywood and pharma
rather than conventional
exporters.

[TPP]

- Paul Krugman -18

2.

18

TPP

WTO 50 70
(biologic drugs)19
(data exclusivity)
5-8

TPP
10

25

TPP

(generic)20

TPP
WTO Trade-Related Aspects of
Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) TRIPS

21
TPP

Paul Krugman. (2015). TPP at the NABE. New York Times Blog.
(biologic drugs)


20
(generic)

21
. (2557).
.
18
19

4 TPP

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

1,200
200
6


TRIPS-plus FTA
20% 2001
2.5% 2004-200922
3. (trade sanction)

TPP

TPP
TPP




23
TPP
(dispute settlement)
24

(International Labour
22

TRIPS-plus TRIPS
(1) Collins-Chase. (2008). The case against TRIPS-plus
protection in developing countries facing AIDS epidemics. (2) Oxfam. (2011). Data Exclusivity and Access to Medicines
Empirical Evidence. (3) Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). (4) iHS Markit. (2010). Pharmaceutical market faces
lower prices as competition flourishes in Peru. FTA

23
United Nations Commission
on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) model law on procurement of goods, construction and services
with guide to enactment TPP

24
US Trade Representative. (2016). TPP Full Text.

4 TPP

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

ISDS provides
international arbitration to
ensure that Americans doing
business abroad receive the
same kind of protections
...that are available to
companies and investors
doing business in the US
under US law. ... The US has
never lost an ISDS case.

ISDS

...
ISDS
- US Trade Representative -

Organization: ILO)25 (side

agreement)


3


(Il egal, Unreported and Unregulated
IUU Fishing)

4. (national

sovereignty) ( Investor-State
Dispute Settlement - ISDS)26
ISDS

ISDS

ISDS

ISDS 25 27 2014 60%

transition economies28

transition economies

25

26
Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput. (2016). TPP, RCEP, FTAAPare they really good for developing countries?.
Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput. (2016). Political economy implications of TPP for developing Asia.
27
ISDS (International Investment Agreements: IIAs)
(Bilateral Investment Treaties: BITs) (Free
Trade Agreements: FTAs)
Walter Bau
28
transition economies

4 TPP

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

ISDS
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)
ISDS
ISDS

4 TPP

10

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

Q3:

(geopolitics)

1.

3 (1)

(2)

(side agreement)
Malaysia shall...
... 34 US shall ...
(3)



World Bank Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer Peterson Institute
for International Economics 2016
(GDP)
TPP 0.5%29
29

World Bank. (2016). Potential macroeconomic implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, global
economic prospects. Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer. (2016). The economic effects of the
Trans-Pacific Partnership: new estimates.

4 TPP

11

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

We have to make sure

America writes the rules of
the global economy. And we
should do it today, while our
economy is in the position of
global strength. Because if
we dont write the rules for
trade around the world
guess what China will And
theyll write those rules in a
way that gives Chinese
workers
and
Chinese
businesses the upper hand,
and locks American-made
goods out.

()

TPP
World Bank Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer

GDP TPP
0.06%

(overestimate) 2 (1)

2011
6%30 2000-2011 3%
2012-2014 (2)


TPP

2. (geopolitics)

GDP TPP 0.03%
TPP TPP

(political economy)


geopolitics
geopolitics
3132

- Barack Obama -32

30

World Bank. (2016).

Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput. (2016).
32
Remarks by Barack Obama delivered at a rally at Nike's headquarters, 5 May 2015, Oregon
31

4 TPP

12

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

Q4:

3 (1)
(2) (3)

RCEP (Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership)33
WTO

1.


TPP GDP

TPP

TPP
sector
sector
sector

33

RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)

16 10
6

4 TPP

13

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

2.


(round)

0.1% 0.2%
0.3%34
3.
35

TPP
RCEP
WTO

RCEP WTO
TPP
RCEP WTO

15 RCEP
50% 2000
60% 2015 TPP
50% 2000 40% 2015 ( 3)

34
35

. (2016).
Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput. (2016).

4 TPP

14

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

3 : 15 RCEP
50% 2000 60% 2015 TPP

TPP RCEP
: %

:
: TPP RCEP

TPP
TPP
TPP 3
TPP


TPP
TPP 3
RCEP RCEP
FTA -

4 TPP

15

Thailand Future Foundation: Policy Watch

Senior consultant 6

( 1)

www.thailandff.org network@thailandff.org

facebook.com/thailandfuturefoundation

1.
- - 3.0 (CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0)
2.

3.

4.
5.
network@thailandff.org
4 TPP

16