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Compound Distribution PDF
Compound Distribution PDF
SHELDON M. ROSS
Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, CA 90089
E-mail: smross@usc.edu
We give a probabilistic proof of an identity concerning the expectation of an arbitrary function of a compound random variable and then use this identity to obtain
recursive formulas for the probability mass function of compound random variables when the compounding distribution is Poisson, binomial, negative binomial
random, hypergeometric, logarithmic, or negative hypergeometric+ We then show
how to use simulation to efficiently estimate both the probability that a positive
compound random variable is greater than a specified constant and the expected
amount by which it exceeds that constant+
0269-9648004 $16+00
473
474
derivations of the recursive formulas for the probability mass function of SN when
X 1 is a positive integer-valued random variable, and N has a variety of possible
distributions+ For other derivations of the applications of Section 3, the reader should
see the references+
Sections 4 and 5 are concerned with finding efficient simulation techniques to
estimate
p 5 P $S # c%
u 5 E @~S 2 c!1 # ,
and
SN 5
(X +
i
i51
nP $N 5 n%
E @N #
n $ 0+
The random variable M is called the sized bias version of N+ ~If the interarrival
times of a renewal process were distributed according to N, then the average length
of a renewal interval containing a fixed point would be distributed according to M+!
Theorem 2.1 ~The Compound Identity!: For any function h,
E @SN h~SN !# 5 E @N #E @X 1 h~SM !# +
475
Proof:
F(
E @SN h~SN !# 5 E
X i h~SN !
i51
( ( E @X h~S
i
!6N 5 n#P $N 5 n%
n50 i51
`
( ( E @X h~S !#P $N 5 n%
i
n50 i51
`
( nE @X
h~Sn !#P $N 5 n%
n50
5 E @N #
( E @X
h~Sn !#P $M 5 n%
n50
5 E @N #E @X 1 h~SM !#
k
1
E @N # ( iai P $SM21 5 k 2 i %+
k
i51
Proof: For an event A, let I ~A! equal one if A occurs and let it equal zero otherwise+ Then, with h~ x! 5 I ~ x 5 k!, the compound identity yields that
P $SN 5 k% 5
1
E @SN I ~SN 5 k!#
k
1
E @N #E @X 1 I ~SM 5 k!#
k
1
E @N # ( E @X 1 I ~SM 5 k!6 X 1 5 i #ai
k
i
1
E @N # ( iP $SM 5 k 6 X 1 5 i %ai
k
i
1
E @N # ( iP $SM21 5 k 2 i %ai +
k
i
3. SPECIAL CASES
Suppose that X 1 is a positive integer-valued random variable with ai 5 P $X 1 5 i %+
476
e 2l ln
,
n!
n $ 0,
then
P $M 2 1 5 n% 5 P $N 5 n%,
n $ 0+
k
1
l ( iai P $SN 5 k 2 i %+
k i51
n 1 r 21
n
p r ~1 2 p! n,
n $ 0+
Such a random variable can be thought of as being the number of failures that occur
before a total of r successes have been amassed when each trial is independently a
success with probability p+
If M is the size-biased version of an NB~r! random variable N, then
P $M 2 1 5 n% 5
n 11
S D
n1r
r~1 2 p!0p n 1 1
p r ~1 2 p! n11 5
S D
n1r
r~1 2 p!
kp
( ia P
i
i51
r11
~k 2 i !+
p r11 ~1 2 p! n ;
477
r~1 2 p!
a1 Pr11 ~0!
p
5 rp r ~1 2 p!a1 ,
Pr ~2! 5
5
Pr ~3! 5
r~1 2 p!
@a1 Pr11 ~1! 1 2a2 Pr11 ~0!#
2p
r~1 2 p! 2
@a1 ~r 1 1!p r11 ~1 2 p! 1 2a2 p r11 # ,
2p
r~1 2 p!
@a1 Pr11 ~2! 1 2a2 Pr11 ~1! 1 3a3 Pr11 ~0!# ,
3p
and so on+
3.3. Binomial Case
If N is a binomial random variable with parameters r and p, then
P $M 2 1 5 n% 5
5
S D
S D
r
n 11
p n11 ~1 2 p! r2n21
rp
n 11
r 21
n
p n ~1 2 p! r212n,
0 # n # r 2 1;
rp
k
( ia P
i
r21
~k 2 i !+
i51
SwnDSr 2b nD
+
P $N 5 n% 5
Sw 1r bD
478
Sw 2n 1DSr 2 nb 2 1D
;
P $M 2 1 5 n% 5
Sw 1r 2b 12 1D
that is, M 2 1 has the same distribution as N with the modification that w becomes
w 2 1 and r becomes r 2 1+ Letting
Pw, r ~k! 5 P $SN~w, r! 5 k%,
then
Pw, r ~k! 5
rw
k~w 1 b!
( ia P
i
w21, r21
~k 2 i !+
i51
This yields
S D
b
rw
rw
r 21
a1 Pw21, r21 ~0! 5
a1
,
Pw, r ~1! 5
w 1 b 21
w1b
w1b
r 21
S D 5 0 if either k , 0 or k . n+!
n
k
bn
,
n
n 5 1,2, + + + ,
n $ 0;
that is, M 2 1 has the negative binomial distribution of Subsection 3+2 with r 5 1
and p 5 1 2 b+ Thus, the recursion of Subsection 3+2 and the corollary yield the
probabilities P $SN 5 k%+
3.6. The Negative Hypergeometric Distribution
Suppose that N has the distribution of the number of blue balls chosen before a total
of r white balls have been amassed when balls are randomly removed from an urn
containing w white and b blue balls; that is,
SbnDSr 2w 1D w 2 r 1 1
+
P $N 5 n% 5
Sn w11r 2b 1D w 1 b 2 n 2 r 1 1
479
Ssb n2 1DSw 1r 1D
;
P $M 2 1 5 n% 5
w1b
Sn 1 rD
that is, M 2 1 has a hypergeometric distribution, implying that the probabilities
P $SM21 5 j % can be obtained from the recursion of Subsection 3+4+ Applying the
corollary then gives the probabilities P $SN 5 k%+
4. ESTIMATING P {S # c}
The raw simulation approach to estimate p 5 P $S # c% would first generate the
value of N, say N 5 n, then generate the values of X 1 , + + + , X n and use them to determine the value of the raw simulation estimator:
I5
if
(X
#c
(1)
i51
otherwise+
The average value of I over many such runs would then be the estimator of p+
We can improve upon the preceding by a conditional expectation approach that
starts by generating the values of the X i in sequence, stopping when the sum of the
generated values exceeds c+ Let M denote the number that are needed; that is,
M 5 min n : ( X i . c +
i51
(2)
Now,
P $N , M6M 5 m% 5 P $N , m6M 5 m%
5 P $N , m%,
where the final equality used the independence of N and M+ Consequently, if the
value of M obtained from the simulation is M 5 m, then the value of E @I6M # obtained
is P $N , m%+
480
Y5
( ~X
2 !+
(3)
i51
e0 5 1, s 5 0+
I 5 1+
eI 5 F~c 2 s!eI21 +
Generate X conditional on X # c 2 s+ Let its value be X 5 x+
s r s 1 x, I r I 1 1+
481
6+ If I # n, go to 3+
7+ Generate X 1 , + + + until their sum exceeds c 2 s+ Let R denote the number
needed; that is,
R 5 min$k : X 1 1 {{{ 1 X k . c 2 s%+
8+ en1k 5 en I $R . k%, k $ 1+
The estimator of P $S # c% from this run is
EST 5 ( ej P $N 5 j %
(4)
Mean
SD
Mean
SD
Mean
SD
Mean
SD
Technique 1
Technique 2
Technique 3
Technique 4
0+5293
0+4991657
0+8575
0+3495797
0+9924
0+08685041
0+99999
0+01
0+6333901
0+1828919
0+9096527
0+08442904
0+9960367
0+007884455
0+9999976
0+00001479114
0+6332048
0+06064626
0+909443
0+04381291
0+9960445
0+006071804
0+9999977
0+00001409331
0+6332126
0+1654034
0+9094954
0+07792921
0+9960576
0+007213068
0+9999977
0+00001230383
482
Mean
SD
Mean
SD
Mean
SD
Mean
SD
20
25
30
Technique 1
Technique 2
Technique 4
0+8638
0+343018
0+9739
0+1594407
0+9976
0+04893342
0+9996
0+019997
0+9052721
0+1489983
0+983253
0+05296109
0+9977583
0+01600277
0+999749
0+003714619
0+9054672
0+1284144
0+9832735
0+04602155
0+9977649
0+01322325
0+9997479
0+003133148
Thus, based on this small experiment, it appears that the reduction in variance
effected by technique 4 over technique 2 is not worth the additional time that it
takes to do a simulation run+ Moreover technique 3, which does not require much
more additional time than either technique 1 or technique 2, usually gives an even
smaller variance than technique 4+
5. ESTIMATING u 5 E [(S c)1]
j
X i and note that
Start by letting Sj 5 ( i51
u5E
F ( ~S 2 c! P $N 5 j %G +
j
To estimate u, follow the procedure of ~2! and generate the sequence X 1 , + + + , stopping at
M 5 min~ j : Sj . c!+
Let
A 5 SM 2 c
and use the estimator
E
F ( ~S 2 c! P $N 5 j %6M, AG 5 ( ~A 1 ~ j 2 M !E @X # !P $N 5 j %
j
j$M
5 ~A 2 ME @X # !
( P $N 5 j %
j$M
1 E @X # E @N # 2
( jP $N 5 j %
j,M
483
that is, if the generated values of M and A are m and a, then the estimate of u from
that run is
~a 2 mE @X # !P $N $ m% 1 E @X # E @N # 2
( jP $N 5 j %
j,m
p[ 5
( I ~S # c!P $N 5 j % 1 I ~S
j
# c!P $N . r%+
j50
The larger the value of r chosen, the smaller the variance of this estimator+ ~When
r 5 0, it reduces to the raw simulation estimator+!
Similarly, we can estimate u by using
r
u5
( E @~S 2 c!
j
j50
uZ 5
( ~S 2 c!
j
j50
Acknowledgment
This research was supported by the National Science Foundation grant ECS-0224779 with the University of California+
References
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12: 2226+
3+ Panjer, H+H+ & Willmot, G+E+ ~1982!+ Recursions for compound distributions+ ASTIN Bulletin 13:
111+
4+ Ross, S+ ~2002!+ SIMUL ATION, 3rd ed+, San Diego, CA: Academic Press+
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distributions+ Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 304: 161175+
484
6+ Sundt, B+ ~1992!+ On some extensions of Panjers class of counting distributions+ ASTIN Bulletin
22: 6180+
7+ Sundt, B+ & Jewell, W+S+ ~1981!+ Further results on a recursive evaluation of compound distributions+ ASTIN Bulletin 12: 2739+
8+ Willmot, G+E+ ~1993!+ On recursive evaluation of mixed Poisson probabilities and related quantities+ Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 2: 114133+
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