VIEWPOINT

BACKSLIDING IN BOSNIA
Some Of Those Pledged To Make The Dayton Accords Succeed Are
Faltering

The new conventional wisdom about Bosnia runs like this: despite the
overwhelming success in implementing the military provisions of the
Dayton accords, those agreements will not lead to a single, unified Bosnia;
rather they have merely deferred the resumption of war or, at best, provided
an interim stage on the road to partition The basis for this view is the
uncertain pace of implementing the civilian aspects of Dayton economic
reconstruction , return of refugees , prosecution of war criminals,
preparation for elections. How valid is the new pessimism?
The short answer is that, with eight months remaining in the year that
NATO plans to stay in Bosnia, enough time remains to put the civilian side
of Dayton into effect provided those in charge are themselves fully
committed to it. The Clinton Administration remains dedicated to this goal.
But there are disturbing signs of backsliding from others, including some
representatives of nations that signed the Dayton accords.
First, however, let's note that the military aspects of Dayton have been
implemented almost completely with no loss of life to NATO forces from
hostile action. The Bosnian Serbs pulled back on schedule. Sarajevo was
united under Muslim control. No one not even the negotiators at Dayton
would have dared predict this five months ago. Still, it is too early for self
congratulations. Other divided lands Korea and Cyprus, for example bear
witness to temporary ceasefire lines that turn into permanent dividing
lines.
Roughly speaking, Bosnia confronts three possible fates after the NATO
troops withdraw.
A return to war.
Implementation of the Dayton accords, which established on paper a unified
country with a weak central government, linking two entities in Bosnia, the
Serbs and the Muslim Croat Federation.
An armed truce in which the "inter entity boundary line" becomes a
permanent division and no central government emerges; in short, partition
something similar to the status of Cyprus or the two Koreas.
I consider the chances of renewed war to be low. However, as between the
second and third possibilities a unified Bosnia or partition the outcome
hangs in the balance, and will depend heavily on the actions of the outside
powers.
Though a divided country might seem better in the short term than a
resumption of war, it would hardly constitute justice. De facto partition
would leave 49% of Bosnia under the control of the Bosnian Serbs. Partition
could also lead to the eventual involuntary dismemberment of Bosnia, with
each of its larger neighbors, Croatia and Serbia, annexing a portion of the
country, leaving a weak, landlocked Muslim mini-state around Sarajevo.
Such a result would threaten the fragile stability in southeastern Europe. At
a minimum, Albania, Bulgaria, the Former Macedonian Republic of
Yugoslavia, Greece and Turkey would all be affected.
It is, therefore, distressing that some important European officials are
privately writing off Dayton's political provisions and preparing the ground
for de facto partition next year. Partition is not inevitable , but the
agreements will surely fail if those responsible for carrying them out are not
completely committed to them.
The removal of Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic, the two indicted war
criminals who still head the Bosnian Serbs, is also necessary. Since the
Dayton agreements do not permit them to run in the crucial elections
planned for September and require that they be tried by the war crimes
tribunal, they have nothing to lose by all-out obstructionism . If they
succeed in their current efforts to prevent the realization of the accords'
political aspects, they will have defied the international community,
including the five Contact Group countries the U.S., Britain, France,
Germany and Russia.
American leadership, headed by President Clinton, achieved both Dayton
and the successful military phase of implementation. But on the civilian
side, a messy, ineffective arrangement , insisted on by the Europeans,
created multiple chains of command and little enforcement authority. In
addition, Congress has been slow and parsimonious in responding to the
need for a significant American contribution to the civilian-implementation
effort.
President Clinton, Secretary of State Warren Christopher, Secretary of
Defense William Perry and their colleagues are committed to making the
Dayton accords succeed. They will need the full support of our European
allies and Congress if, when NATO leaves, Bosnia is to have true peace. The
threat of the use of force by NATO or of renewed sanctions should be
among the tools available to make the Bosnian Serbs comply with the
agreements.
Richard Holbrooke, chief architect of the Dayton accords, was until recently
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State.

BÜLENT USTA
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