the measure of all things

Gangan Prathap

"Of all things the measure is man, of

the things that are, that [or "how"]
they are, and of things that are not,
that [or "how"] they are not."
- Protagoras of Abdera ( c. 480-410 B.C.)

C-MMACS Research Output The Pareto Distribution of SCI papers (1992-2002)

0102030405060708091011121314
0102030405060708
01020304050607
01020304050607
01020304
01020304
01020304
010203
010203
010203
0102
0102
01
|
|
|
|

20% account for 50%

(Less skewed than Paretos
80:20 rule)

The Pareto principle and the pyramid of wealth distribution

80-20 rule: 20% has 80%
80-20 rule on this 20% - 0.2x0.2 = 0.04 has 0.8x0.8 = 0.64
80-20 rule on this 4% 0.2x0.04 = 0.008 has 0.8x0.64 = 0.512

0.800 has 0.200

0.160 has 0.160
0.008 has 0.512

so that
Pyramid of Numbers
0.008
0.480
0.512

Pyramid of wealth
0.512
0.480
0.008

Pareto, V., Cours dEconomie Politique, Droz, Geneva, 1896.

Percentage HI

Dispersion of Household Income in India

1999
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0

20

40

60

80

Percentage households

100

Members' Balance in EPF

100
90
80

% Balance

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0

20

40

60

% Members

80

100

Lorenz Curve- C-MMACS 19922002

100

Gini = 0.5

% Papers

80
60
40
20
0
0

20

40

60

% Authors

80

100

Lorenz Curve- NAL 1981-1997

100

Gini=0.53

90
80
% Papers

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0

20

40

60

% Authors

80

100

Lorenz Curve - NCL 2003

100

% Papers

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0

20

40

60

% Authors

80

100

Lorenz Curve- NAL Citations

1981-1997

100
90
80

% Citations

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0

20

40

60

% Authors

80

100

CSIR Papers 2003 Lorenz Curve

100.00
90.00
80.00

% Papers

70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
0.00

20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00

% Authors

CSIR ECF 2003 Lorenz Curve

100.00
90.00
80.00

% ECF

70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
0.00

20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00

% Strength

Lorenz Curve for Bradford and Gaussian

40
36
Cumulative Indicator

32
28
24

Gaussian

20
16
Bradford

12
8
4
0
0

12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40
Cumulative Labs

Elsevier Downloads Nov03-Feb04

100
Gini = 0.57
90
80

% Downloads

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0

20

40

60

% Gr IV Sc

80

100

UG Engineering Intake on All India basis: 1993-2002

(Total and per million population)

Year

Intake (Total)

Population
(million)

Intake/Million
Population

1993

90000

879

102

1994

94000

897

105

1995

101000

915

120

1996

130000

934

139

1997

134000

950

141

1998

156000

966

162

1999

185000

981

189

2000

226000

997

227

2001

296000

1012

293

2002

348000

1028

338

Relative Intake in the States Regional Variation

(All India Average 338/million)

Sl No.

State

Population
(Million)

Intake

Intake/Million

State/Nation
Ratio

1.

Tamil Nadu

63.6

75107

1180

3.5

2.

Andhra Pradesh

77.8

62730

806

2.4

3.

Karnataka

53.6

40385

753

2.3

4.

Kerala

33.0

16538

501

1.5

5.

Maharashtra

93.9

46486

495

1.5

6.

Haryana

20.4

8800

431

1.3

7.

Punjab

24.2

8530

352

1.0

8.

Orissa

37.3

9335

250

0.7

9.

New Delhi

14.5

3120

215

0.6

10.

Madhya Pradesh

83.0

15950

192

0.6

11.

Gujarat

54.2

9265

171

0.5

12.

Rajasthan

55.8

7784

140

0.4

13.

Uttar Pradesh

180.6

24431

136

0.4

14.

West Bengal

81.4

10284

126

0.4

15.

Bihar

105.0

3025

29

0.1

16.

Assam

27.3

720

26

0.1

Relative Engineering Intake

100
90

TN

Gini = 0.48

80
AP

% Intake

70
60

Kar
Ker

50
Mah

40
30
20

10 WB UP
Ass Bih
0
0
20

40

60

% Population

80

100

Modelling and Measuring

Activity and Performance

Lotkas Law Bose condensation

The Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution
Zipfs Law Sahas ionisation
The Bradford Distribution
The Lorenz Curve

Lotkas Law

Lotka [4] observed in 1926, of all authors with names beginning

with A or B in Chemical Abstracts covering the years 1907-1916.
About 60% of the authors produced only one paper during the
period in Lotkas study.
From this, he formulated his famous law of scientific productivity,
whereby, the number of authors making n contributions is about
1/n2 of those making 1.

[4] Lotka, A. J., J. Washington Acad. Sci., 1926, 16, 317-323.

Table 1. Actual number of authors and Lotkas prediction with n papers

Papers published in SCI Journals from 1981-1997 (whole count)

No.of
Papers

No of
authors

Lotka
prediction

Cum.
Whole
Count
Papers

% total
Whole
Count
Papers

Cum.
Author
count

%
authors

%
papers /
%
authors

775

56.65

447

92.55

0.61

740

54.09

442

91.51

0.59

14

11

698

51.02

435

90.06

0.57

19

18

628

45.91

421

87.16

0.53

30

31

552

40.35

402

83.23

0.48

90

90

462

33.77

372

77.02

0.44

282

282

282

20.61

282

58.39

0.35

0.00

0.00

Zipfs Law

At the high end of the distribution, we see that the most productive
authors produce much more than the average person.
Indeed, at NAL, we see that there are many individuals who have
14, 15, 18, 19, 24, 25, 31, 45, 54, and 72 papers respectively.
Zipf [5] was the first to record this and Zipfs is the law of rank
frequency, which postulates that rank r occurs with a frequency
which is inversely related to r.
Note that a very large number of variables are hidden in the system,
but the rank to frequency relationship is captured in a simple way.
Thus, if an author of the first rank has a 100 papers, an author of the
second rank may have 50 (=100/2) or 25 (=100/ 22) papers,
depending on the power of the inverse relationship. In this simple
relationship that Zipf postulated, some kind of principle of least
effort was operating.
[5] Zipf, G., Human Behaviour and the Principle of Least Effort, Addison-Wesley,
Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1949.

Actual number of authors and Zipfs Law

Papers published in SCI Journals from 1981-1997 (whole count)

No of
authors

Zipfs
prediction

Cum.
Whole
Count
Papers

72

72

1368

100.00

483

100.00

1.00

54

36

1296

94.74

482

99.79

0.95

45

24

1242

90.79

481

99.59

0.91

31

18

1197

87.50

480

99.38

0.88

25

14

1166

85.23

479

99.17

0.86

24

12

1141

83.41

478

98.96

0.84

19

10

1117

81.65

477

98.76

0.83

18

1098

80.26

476

98.55

0.81

15

1062

77.63

474

98.14

0.79

No.of
Papers

% total
Whole
Count
Papers

Cum.
Author
count

%
authors

% papers
/%
authors

 High end Zipfs Law = Sahas

Middle section MB distribution
Low end Lotkas Law
Lowest end Bose-condensation
Gives
The Lorenz curve and Bradfords distribution

% Papers

Lorenz Curve- SCOPUS

1974-2004

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0

20

40

60

% Authors

80

100

Lorenz Curve- SCOPUS

1974-2004

100

% Citations

80
60
40
20
0
0

20

40

60

% Authors

80

100

Who's afraid of Assessment?

40
36

Cumulative Result

32
28
24

Gaussian

20
16
Bradford

12
8
4
0
0

8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40
Cumulative Assesses

Life is unfair

John F Kennedy

? ??????????????? ?????-??????????, ??????? ??????????

???????????????? ????????????? ???????????? ????? ??? ?????????? ?????
????? ??? ??????????? ??????, ????? ??? ???????????, ???: ????-??? ???????,
??????? ???-???????. 11

11 I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift
nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet
riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but
time and chance happeneth to them all.

Ecclesiastes 9:11