Professional Documents
Culture Documents
4 Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Yusof Basiron
4 Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Yusof Basiron
4 Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Yusof Basiron
Price (US$/MT)
2000
201.80
2001
174.43
2002
178.33
2003
206.50
2004
269.89
2005
381.35
2006
459.39
2007
508.38
2008
693.56
2009
441.54
2010
564.88
2011
743.39
2012
750.55
2013
743.84
2014
687.92
2015
537.60
800.00
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2005
367.69
495.75
2006
416.81
551.50
2007
719.12
799.74
2008
862.92
1,133.79
2009
644.07
787.02
2010
859.94
924.83
2011
1,076.50
1,215.82
2012
939.83
1,151.75
2013
764.20
1,011.11
2014
739.41
812.71
2015
569.13
671.71
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
Palm Oil
Soybean Oil
2015
590.45
2014
434.72
2013
2004
1,200.00
2012
500.28
2011
410.37
2010
2003
1,400.00
2009
409.84
2008
356.75
2007
2002
2006
346.99
2005
238.40
2004
2001
2003
351.82
2002
261.14
2001
2000
Palm Oil & Soybean Oil Price - US Dollars per Metric Ton
(Veg. oils prices follow petroleum price trends, due to role of
biodiesel)
2000
Year
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
1,921.15
3,652.45
4,816.05
3,376.31
2,793.77
1,956.11
1,558.93
4,000.00
2003
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5,000.00
2002
2,613.04
6,000.00
2001
2008
2000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
US$/MT
667.78
574.91
764.86
1,082.70
1,304.16
1,501.35
2,106.20
2,289.66
2008
136.18
2009
76.98
2010
106.04
2011
130.12
2012
103.25
2013
90.60
2014
75.14
2015
61.63
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
2015
2007
52.60
70.43
2014
2006
2013
51.02
2012
2005
100.00
2011
56.73
2010
2004
2009
27.95
2008
2003
120.00
2007
27.06
2006
2002
140.00
2005
32.31
2004
2001
2003
26.25
2002
2000
160.00
2001
Price
(US$/MT
2000
Year
5000
USD per MT
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2000
2001
Palm Oil
2002
2003
Soybean Oil
2004
2005
Sunflower Oil
2006
2007
2008
Rapeseed Oil
2009
Corn
2010
Wheat
2011
2012
Crude Oil
2013
2014
Rubber
2015
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Source : Oilworld & MPOB
Indonesia
Malaysia
China,PR
EU-28
U.S.A
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Iran
Mexico
Japan
Turkey
S.Africa,Rep
Korea,South
Taiwan
Brazil
Philippines
Egypt
Nigeria
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
Malaysia
Argentina
Ukraine
Canada
Indonesia
Net Exporter
Net Importer
5000
'000 MT
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Sunflower Oil
Rapeseed Oil
8%
13%
Soybean oil
19.90%
Palm oil
13.62%
Other Oils
26%
Soybean Oil
23%
Palm Oil
30%
Sunflower oil
9.73%
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
2015(E)
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
600,000
(000 MT)
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
2015 has so far been the warmest year in more than a century. The ranking serves as a reminder of how
much the globes overall temperature has risen in the atmosphere. NASA released its latest monthly
temperature data for the globe showing November as the warmest on record for the planet. The Japan
Meteorological Agencys dataset also shows the same record warmth for the month.
2011
(MT)
Production
(Malaysia)
Production
(Indonesia)
Total
2012
(MT)
2013
(MT)
2014
(MT)
2015
(MT)
2016 F
19,962
20,100
62,462
63,600
2014
47
45
1.98
4.40
Cottonseed
4.83
4.87
(0.04)
(0.82)
Rapeseed
26.8
27.2
(0.40)
(1.47)
Groundnut
3.55
3.87
(0.32)
(8.27)
Sunflower
15.4
16.2
(0.73)
(4.52)
Sesameseed
0.79
0.78
0.01
1.28
Castorseed
0.63
0.64
(0.01)
(1.56)
Linseed
0.66
0.63
0.03
4.76
Palmkernel
6.7
6.52
0.18
2.76
Coconut
2.97
3.02
(0.05)
(1.66)
Corn
3.19
3.16
0.03
0.95
Total
112.52
111.84
0.68
(4.15)
Soybean
Diff (MMT)
(%)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016F
Opening Stock
19,291
20,725
22,815
26,382
25,087
25,497
26,007
Production
172,595
180,324
187,420
190,464
200,241
204,230
206,993
Import
66,724
68,403
73,308
75,601
77,351
78,459
80,183
Export
66,518
68,851
73,020
75,616
77,455
78,763
79,275
Consumption
171,367
177,786
184,141
191,744
199,727
203,416
207,826
Ending Stock
20,725
22,815
26,382
25,087
25,497
26,007
26,082
12.09%
12.83%
14.33%
13.08%
12.77%
12.79%
12.55%
16.00%
3,500
14.00%
3,000
12.00%
2,500
10.00%
2,000
8.00%
1,500
6.00%
1,000
4.00%
500
2.00%
0.00%
2006
2007
SUR
2008
CPO Price
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016F
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Quantity (MT)
696,000
636,000
567,000
573,000
546,000
2,125,427
2,073,212
2,373,866
2,512,336
2,776,254
376,324
287,746
291,748
453,301
566,790
Butterfat
100,000
100,000
100,000
100,000
100,000
3,277,751
3,096,958
3,332,614
3,638,637
3,989,044
Imported Oils
Total
2014
Changes
Vol. (Tonnes)
Changes
%
125,308
104,290
21,018
20.15
Palm Oil
1,077,195
1,122,732
(45,537)
(4.06)
Palm Olein
1,291,187
1,088,460
202,727
18.63
Palm Fats
92,541
81,133
11,409
14.06
Soybean Oil
167,310
98,249
69,060
70.29
Tallow
22,713
17,472
5,241
30.00
2,776,254
2,512,336
263,918
10.50
Commodity
Crude Palm Oil
Total
79%
77%
87%
80%
78%
82%
85%
87%
81%
77%
500,000
MT-
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Imports
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
105,395
65,300
340,657
155,588
39,995
Total Volume
706,935
Source : MPOB
2011
2011
2012
2012
Palm oil
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
(F)
2015E
70.00
1,000.00
60.00
(US$/MT)
40.00
600.00
30.00
400.00
20.00
200.00
10.00
0.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Price (US$/MT)
Palm oil producing countries benefitted through both increase in price and volume
Volume to increase further in future due to growth in population and affluence, while importig
countries benefitted from lower prices of palm oil relative to other oils, a win-win situation
(Million MT)
50.00
800.00
1922
1975
2005
2030
2042
Worlds population
(bil)
bil)
2.0
4.0
6.6
8.0
9.0
7.50
3.75
2.27
1.88
1.67
0.75
0.38
0.23
0.19
0.17
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2004
SBO
SFO
RSO
Production (Mn. MT)
PO
2015
SBO
SFO
RSO
PO
Since 2004, land for palm oil cultivation grew by only 6.88 million hectares compared to soybean cultivation which increased by 24.67
million hectares while land for rapeseed oil cultivation increased by 10.72 million hectares
In terms of production, palm oil increased by 28 million MT compared to soybean oil which increased by 14.38 million MT while
rapeseed oil increased by 8 million MT
Compared to other oils, palm oil has the lowest cost of production this making it most competitively priced
and affordable
Ideology Threat
CONCEPT: Make developed countries as food granary & keep undeveloped or
developing countries for forest conservation
Wrong ideology on land use policy, denying developing countries from developing their agricultural sector.
Correct ideology should be to choose crops that produce most food with least land area: need for UN
Sustainable Agriculture Initiative
Developed countries have limited new land for agriculture use
Oil palm is perennial & yields 10 X more than annual crop of soya on same land area
DEMAND DRIVERS
Fabric Softener
Using Palm-Based
Esterquat
Cosmetics and personal care products can be formulated using palm-based oleo chemicals such as glycerin, fatty acids , fatty
alcohols and their esters. The amount of palm based materials in the formulations ranges from 45% to 98%. The latest is
producing Nylon from palm fatty acids.
45
BIODIESEL
Following on from initiatives set by the U.S. and
European governments, many countries have announced
new and improved biodiesel blending mandates.
If the plan is implemented, CPO should be a key
beneficiary.
As these initiatives stalled in 2015 due to low petroleum
prices, the palm oil market could be moving into
structural oversupply, unless balanced by local biodiesel
mandates operating in Indonesia and Malaysia.
BIODIESEL DEMAND
Malaysia implemented the B-7 in Peninsular Malaysia in 2014
This has been extended to Sabah & Sarawak
The plan in Malaysia is expected to consume at least an
additional 700,000 MT palm oil domestically if industrial
sector consumption is included
Malaysia plans to increase biodiesel mandates to 10% in
2016 and this would consume up to an additional 1 million
MT of palm oil
Taken altogether, this establishes a trend where key
oilseed/vegoil producing countries are stoking domestic
demand in anticipation of large domestic surpluses over the
coming years
CONCLUSIONS
Rising global demand for oils & fats will not be easily met
with limited arable land. Possible solution is to rely on
high yielding crop like oil palm and identifying the
developing countries with best potential to produce.
Palm oil is the powerhouse in the oils and fats market and
is a suitable crop for tropical developing countries
CONCLUSIONS
Palm oil is without doubt the ultimate edible oil when it
comes to affordability, sustainability and economic
development
Palm oil prices have consistently remained lower than the
prices of other major vegetable oils
Palm oil is expected to continue if not grow in its role of
meeting global oils and fats demand
Palm oil production respects and adopts the 3Ps principles
of sustainability People, Planet and Profit.
THANK YOU
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