Digital Unit Plan Template

Unit Title: What Are the Chances - Conditional

Probability Unit Plan

Name: Jeffrey Liang

Content Area: Mathematics 2

Grade Level: 10-11

CA Content Standard(s)/Common Core Standard(s):

Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability

S-CP

Understand independence and conditional probability and use them to interpret data. [Link to
data from simulations
or experiments.]

1. Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or
categories) of the outcomes,
or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events (or, and, not).

2. Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring
together is the product of their
probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent.

3. Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret

independence of A and B as saying

that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the
conditional probability of B given A
is the same as the probability of B.

4. Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated
with each object being
classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to
approximate conditional
probabilities. For example, collect data from a random sample of students in your school on their
favorite subject among
math, science, and English. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected student from your
school will favor science
given that the student is in tenth grade. Do the same for other subjects and compare the
results.

5. Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday
language and everyday
situations.

Big Ideas/Unit Goals:

How does conditional probabilities influence our choices daily in the real world?
How and why are the chances of an event connected or influenced by other events?

Unit Summary:

Through this unit, students will become familiar with data interpretation and applying
concepts of conditional probability to justify reasoning. The unit begin with an
introduction on describing sample space and event independence. From the lesson
associated with the introduction of these concepts, students will be able to identify the
sample space, the events, and the union and intersection of the events; students will
also become familiar with showing event independence through mathematical
reasoning. Conditional Probability will be introduced; many activities that illustrate this
idea will be provided to students to describe and reason with. As students comprehend
and explore the connections and applications of conditional probability, students will
deepen their abilities to interpret data and approximate conditional probabilities. At
the end of the unit, students will demonstrate understanding through a group project
that incorporate the knowledge of many factors.

Assessment Plan:
Entry-Level:

Formative:

Dice Roll Activity

Questions
Brainstorm Activity

Venn Diagram Worksheet

Presentation Activity
Independent Events
Webexercise
Flashcards
Conditional Probability
Sequencing Outline

Summative:
Summary
Quiz on Independent
Events
Conditional Probability
Word Problem Exit Slip
Snack Preference
Project & Presentation

Lesson 1

Student
Learning
Objective:
Students will be
able to analyze
and describe the
union and
intersection of
events using the
set of all
outcomes.

Acceptable
Evidence
(Assessments):

Students will write

a summary
describing the
sample space of an
experiment of their
choice. In this
summary, students
need to identify
two events that
pertain to the
sample space of
the experiment.
Students will then

Lesson Activities:

Students will first work in pairs on a dice roll experiment activity. In this
activity, one student will roll a die 6 times while the other student records
every result /outcome of the trials. After every pair finishes the activity,
the teacher will facilitate a class discussion. In this class discussion, the
teacher will ask students to share their results and then ask students
what all the possible outcomes of the experiment are. Students will also
work on a Venn diagram worksheet to better develop their ideas around
the union and intersection of events. The students will work in pairs on
the worksheets, however, each student will have to complete an individual
worksheet. In groups of 4, students will also look at present a given
experiment by describing the sample space and events of the given
experiment. At the end, students will synthesize and construct a
summary that reflects the concepts and vocabularies to demonstrate
understanding of the material.

describe the union

and intersection of
those two chosen
events.

Lesson 2

Student
Learning
Objective:
Students will be
able to show how
two events are
independent if
the product of the
two events equal
the probability of
the two events
occurring.

Lesson 3

Acceptable Evidence:

Lesson Activities:

Students will complete

a short quiz at the end
of the lesson. The quiz
will require students
to describe whether
two events are
independent from
provided information
in the text. Other
questions would
require students to
apply the formulas to
support whether two
events are
independent.

At the beginning of the lesson, students will attempt to answer the

entry level assessment question. This question ask students how or
what factors determine whether two events are independent. This
question will connect a students prior knowledge with the content.
Students will then work on flashcards with events on one side and
whether the events are independent on the other side. Students will
also provide reasoning for why the events are independent or
dependent. These flashcards can later be for assistance in studying or
the quiz. Students will then complete a Webexercise and deepen their
understanding of independent events pertaining to conditional
probability. At the end of the lesson, student learning will be
measured by a quiz that reflect everything taught within the lesson.

Student
Learning
Objective:
Students will be
able to
approximate
conditional
probabilities to
justify solution
using two way
frequency tables.

Acceptable Evidence:

Lesson Activities:

At the end of the

lesson, students will
complete an exit slip
containing a
conditional probability
question using two
way frequency tables.
The exit slip will
require students to
illustrate or explain
the process or steps to
solving the problem.
Correct solution and
interpretation of the
results will also
demonstrate
understanding of the
concepts.

Prior to diving deep into the lesson, students will first (in groups of 34) will brainstorm possible conditional probability questions within a
school or educational context. Students will add their conditional
probability question, two possible events, and why the chosen
question may be important. After, each group will present the
information to the rest of the class. Students will then complete a
graphic organizer outlining the steps to solving a conditional
probability question. Students will work independently on this
assignment and must produce their own work. This outline would be
helpful and can assist students to identifying important information in
conditional probability word problems. At the end of the lesson,
students will complete an exit slip containing a word problem that is
similar to the word problems throughout the lessons. Students will
work independently to identify and describe the process of solving the
problem. Students may also use their sequencing outline to assist
them in tackling the conditional probability word problem within the
exit slip.

Unit Resources:

Webexercise
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QlZjoLmg3I
http://www.softschools.com/quizzes/math/independent_or_dependent_event
s/quiz5232.html
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html
https://www.random.org/playing-cards/
https://www.random.org/coins/
Conditional Probability Sequencing Outline
https://www.ixl.com/math/algebra-2/find-conditional-probabilities-using-two-

way-frequency-tables
http://creately.com/
http://www.ck12.org/user:Anoka/book/Anoka-Hennepin-Probability-andStatistics/section/2.5/
https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat414/book/export/html/10

Useful Websites:

http://setosa.io/conditional/ - Visual Representation of Conditional Probability

Application
http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/conditional.html - Conditional Probability
Review and Practice
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-conditional.html - Conditional
Probability Explanation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xPkG2pA-TU - Khan Academy Video on
Conditional Probability Word Problems
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-NeYKSEqns - Khan Academy Video on
Independent Events
http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/sample_spaces.html - Review of Sample
Space
http://www.purplemath.com/modules/venndiag2.htm - Examples of Events in Word
Problems
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfffIXBiyAo - Youtube video on Sample Space and

Events
https://www.gliffy.com/uses/venn-diagram-software-template/ - Online tool for
making Venn Daigrams
http://mathcele.startlogic.com/samplespace.php?pl=Generate+Practice+Problem Sample Space Probability Calculator