DJ ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK -

Majors
Tue Jun 15 19:29:00 EDT 2010
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major
currency pairs today:

Immediate Range Larger Range

USD/JPY 91.05-91.69 90.83-92.11
EUR/USD 1.2260-1.2353 1.2163-1.2452
AUD/USD 0.8567-0.8666 0.8503-0.8714
NZD/USD 0.6925-0.7020 0.6883-0.7039
GBP/USD 1.4715-1.4836 1.4680-1.4916
USD/CHF 1.1289-1.1400 1.1264-1.1488
USD/CAD 1.0221-1.0308 1.0105-1.0360
EUR/JPY 111.61-113.07 110.87-113.38
EUR/GBP 0.8297-0.8336 0.8259-0.8360

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option
strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Supported by buying of yen crosses amid
improved risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eases 9.48% to 25.87) as U.S. stocks surge (DJIA up
2.1%, S&P 500 erases year's losses) on robust sales reports from U.S. technological companies,
easing concerns over euro-zone debt crisis, 0.6% fall in May U.S. import prices--suggesting tame
inflation and prolonged ultra-loose Fed policy--rise in NY Fed Empire State Index to 19.6 in
June from 19.1 in May for 11th consecutive improvement. USD/JPY also supported by USD
demand for import settlements, higher U.S. Treasury yields. But USD/JPY gains tempered by
Japan exporter sales, broadly weaker USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 86.068 vs
Monday's 86.511 settlement). Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan April tertiary industry activity index,
0500 GMT June BOJ monthly report, 1230 GMT U.S. May PPI, May housing starts, 1315 GMT
U.S. May industrial production & capacity utilization, 1815 GMT Fed's Plosser speaks, 2145
GMT Bernanke speaks. USD/JPY daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, stochastics neutral.
Resistance at 91.69 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 92.11 (Monday's high),
then 92.44 (55-day moving average), 92.89-92.96 band (June 4 high-May 18 high) and 93.64
(May 13 reaction high). Support at 91.05 (yesterday's low); breach would target 90.83
(Thursday's low, near 200-day moving average), then 90.52 (June 1 low) and 89.79 (May 26
low).

EUR/USD - to trade higher. EUR/USD supported as early jitters caused by Moody's downgrade
of Greece wiped away by successful debt auctions from Spain, Belgium and Ireland, while
European Commission said 12 EU governments on track to meet their 2010 budget-deficit
targets. But EUR sentiment dented as Germany's ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment fell
sharply to 28.7 in June from May's 45.8, well below forecast of 42.5 and lowest since April
2009; smaller-than-expected EUR1.8 billion euro-zone April trade surplus (vs EUR3.0 billion
forecast). Data focus: 0900 GMT euro-zone May harmonized CPI, euro-zone 1Q labor-cost
index, 0930 GMT ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo speaks, 1715 GMT ECB's Bini Smaghi speaks.
EUR/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish; 5-day moving average
staging bullish crossover against 15-day. Resistance at 1.2349-1.2353 band (yesterday's high-
June 1 high); breach would expose upside to 1.2452 (May 28 high), then 1.2672 (May 21
reaction high) and 1.2802 (55-day moving average). Support at 1.2260 (hourly chart); breach
would expose downside to 1.2163 (yesterday's low), then 1.2043 (Friday's low), 1.1954
(Thursday's low) and 1.1922 (June 9 low).

AUD/USD - to consolidate with bullish bias. Underpinned by AUD demand for long-AUD carry
trades on stronger investor risk tolerance, firmer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed up
3.52 yesterday at 263.5). But Aussie gains tempered by lingering concerns China may tighten
policy. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia April Westpac-Melbourne Institute indexes of
economic activity, 0130 GMT Australia 1Q dwelling unit commencements (preliminary).
AUD/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at
overbought. Resistance at 0.8666 (Monday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8714
(previous base set May 6), then 0.8856 (55-day moving average) and 0.8921 (100-day moving
average). Support at 0.8567 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 0.8503 (yesterday's
low), then 0.8422 (Friday's low), 0.8358 (previous cap set June 9) and 0.8193 (June 9 low).

NZD/USD - to consolidate with bullish bias. Buoyed by NZD demand for long-NZD carry trades
on improved investor appetite for risk, firmer commodity prices; but gains tempered by lingering
concerns about further Chinese monetary tightening. NZD/USD daily chart positive-biased as
MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought. Resistance at 0.7020 (Monday's
high); breach would target 0.7039 (May 18 high), then 0.7129 (200-day average) and 0.7199
(May 12 high). Support at 0.6925 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 0.6883
(yesterday's low), then 0.6799 (Friday's low), 0.6691 (Thursday's low) and 0.6608 (June 9 low).

GBP/USD - to consolidate with bullish bias. GBP/USD supported as risk sentiment improves,
but gains tempered by weaker-than-expected UK May CPI (eased to 3.4% from 3.7% in April, vs
3.5% forecast), Fitch downgrade of BP to BBB from AA; drop in Nationwide UK consumer
confidence index to 65 in May from April's 75, lowest in almost a year; continued concerns over
long period of slow UK growth as government fiscal-tightening measures weigh. Data focus:
0830 GMT UK June unemployment. GBP/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD &
stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought. Resistance at 1.4836 (yesterday's high); breach
would expose upside to 1.4916 (May 13 high, matching 55-day moving average), then 1.5044-
1.5053 band (May 12 high-May 10 high) and 1.5114 (100-day moving average). Support at
1.4715 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 1.4680 (yesterday's low), then 1.4502
(Friday's low), 1.4393 (June 9 low) and 1.4344 (June 8 reaction low).

USD/CHF - to consolidate with bearish bias. Pair undermined by broadly weaker USD
undertone; but downside limited by expectations SNB may resume CHF-selling intervention,
short-CHF carry trades on improved risk sentiment. Data focus: 0900 GMT June ZEW-Credit
Suisse indicator of economic sentiment for Switzerland. Daily chart negative-biased as MACD
bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold, suggesting sideways or lower USD/CHF
trading near-term. Support at 1.1289 (yesterday's low); breach would target 1.1264 (May 18
low), then 1.1245 (previous cap set May 6), 1.1103 (55-day moving average) and 1.0920 (May
10 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1400 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 1.1481-
1.1488 band (yesterday's high-Monday's high), then 1.1546-1.1555 band (Friday's high-June 9
high), 1.1641 (June 8 high) and 1.1672 (June 7 high).

USD/CAD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Undermined by improved risk sentiment,
weaker global USD, firmer commodity & oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $1.82 yesterday at
$76.94/bbl). USD/CAD daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays
suppressed at oversold, suggesting sideways or lower USD/CAD trading near-term. Support at
1.0221 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0105 (May 13 reaction low), then
1.0098 (May 3 low) and 1.0010 (April 29 reaction low). Resistance at 1.0308 (hourly chart);
breach would expose upside to 1.0360 (yesterday's high), then 1.0390 (Friday's high), 1.0451
(Thursday's high) and 1.0517 (June 9 high).

EUR/JPY - to trade higher. Supported by carry trades amid improved risk appetite, diminished
worries over euro-zone sovereign debt crisis. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics
in bullish mode; bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit at 112.86 yesterday; 5-day moving
average staging bullish crossover against 15-day. Resistance at 113.07 (yesterday's high); breach
would target 113.38 (June 4 high), then 114.16 (June 3 reaction high), 114.40 (May 21 high) and
115.49 (May 18 high). Support at 111.61 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to
110.87 (yesterday's low), then 110.26 (Friday's low), 108.94-108.84 band (Thursday's low-June
9 low) and 108.32 (June 8 low).

EUR/GBP - to consolidate with risks skewed higher, supported by moderating concerns over
euro-zone debt crisis. Daily chart positive-biased as stochastics rising from oversold; MACD
staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average. Resistance at 0.8336
(yesterday's high); breach would target 0.8360 (Monday's high), then 0.8379-0.8384 band (June
3 high-June 2 high), 0.8419 (previous base set May 27) and 0.8547 (May 28 high). Support at
0.8297 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 0.8259 (yesterday's low), then 0.8206
(Friday's 19-month low), 0.8195 (previous cap set Oct. 24, 2008) and psychological 0.8000.

Disclaimer
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not
consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a
specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the
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