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Arville Ganda Mo Pucha
Arville Ganda Mo Pucha
Yc=Demand X=Years
a + bx
Yc=
a=
Y - bX
N
3,850.00
5
b=
NXY - XY
NX^2 - (X)^2
2,370.00
50
796.00
883.00
912.00
991.00
979.00
4,561.00
2016
X^2
1
2
3
4
5
15
1
4
9
16
25
55
XY
796.00
1,766.00
2,736.00
3,964.00
4,895.00
14,157.00
770.00
770.00
770.00
770.00
770.00
a + bx
a=
Y - bX
N
8,953.50
5
1,790.70
b=
NXY - XY
NX^2 - (X)^2
2,535.00
50
50.70
1,795.00
1,903.00
1,970.00
2,092.00
1,954.00
9,714.00
X^2
1
2
3
4
5
15
1
4
9
16
25
55
XY
1,795.00
3,806.00
5,910.00
8,368.00
9,770.00
29,649.00
1,790.70
1,790.70
1,790.70
1,790.70
1,790.70
770.00
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
1
2
3
4
5
=Yc
817.40
864.80
912.20
959.60
1,007.00
Y-Yc
(21.40)
18.20
(0.20)
31.40
(28.00)
=(Y-Yc)^2/5
sd
(Y-Yc)^2
457.96
331.24
0.04
985.96
784.00
2,559.20
511.84
Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
22.62
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
1
2
3
4
5
=Yc
1,841.40
1,892.10
1,942.80
1,993.50
2,044.20
Y-Yc
(46.40)
10.90
27.20
98.50
(90.20)
=(Y-Yc)^2/5
sd
(Y-Yc)^2
2,152.96
118.81
739.84
9,702.25
8,136.04
20,849.90
4,169.98
64.58
Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
770.00
770.00
770.00
770.00
770.00
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
7
8
9
10
11
1,790.70
1,790.70
1,790.70
1,790.70
1,790.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
7
8
9
10
11
ne
=Yc
1,102
1,149
1,197
1,244
1,291
5,983
ne
=Yc
2,146
2,196
2,247
2,298
2,348
11,235
2yrs old
Yn-Yc
N-1
183
45.75
4
Historical Demand
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
796.00
883.00
912.00
991.00
979.00
2015
Yn-Yc
N-1
45.75
45.75
45.75
45.75
796.00
841.75
887.50
933.25
3 and above
+Yi-1
159
39.75
4
Historical Demand
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,795.00
1,903.00
1,970.00
2,092.00
1,954.00
+Yi-1
39.75
39.75
39.75
39.75
1,795.00
1,834.75
1,874.50
1,914.25
rical Demand
Projected Demand
=Yc
Y-Yc
(Y-Yc)^2
0
41.25
24.50
57.75
0
841.75
887.50
933.25
979.00
=(Y-Yc)^2/5
sd
0
1,701.56
600.25
3,335.06
-
Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
5,636.88
1,127.38
33.58
rical Demand
Projected Demand
=Yc
Y-Yc
0
1,834.75
1,874.50
1,914.25
1,954.00
(Y-Yc)^2
0
68.25
95.50
177.75
=(Y-Yc)^2/5
sd
0
4,658.06
9,120.25
31,595.06
45,373.38
9,074.68
95.26
Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
rojected Demand
a
45.75
45.75
45.75
45.75
45.75
+Yi-1
979.00
1,024.75
1,070.50
1,116.25
1,162.00
=Yc
1,025
1,071
1,116
1,162
1,208
5,581
rojected Demand
a
39.75
39.75
39.75
39.75
39.75
+Yi-1
1,954.00
1,993.75
2,033.50
2,073.25
2,113.00
=Yc
1,994
2,034
2,073
2,113
2,153
10,366
2 yo
Yi+1
1+r
Value of the Year Ahead
= % increase
N+1
5.42%
Historical Demand
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
796.00
883.00
912.00
991.00
979.00
2015
% increase
10.93%
3.28%
8.66%
-1.21%
21.67%
Yi+1
r
/(1 + r)
105.42%
105.42%
105.42%
105.42%
Yi + 1
835.72
880.98
928.70
979.00
Yi+1
1+r
Value of the Year Ahead
= % increase
N-1
2.28%
Historical Demand
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,795.00
1,903.00
1,970.00
2,092.00
1,954.00
% increase
6.02%
3.52%
6.19%
-6.60%
9.13%
Yi + 1
1,826.03
1,867.73
1,910.38
1,954.00
/(1 + r)
102.28%
102.28%
102.28%
102.28%
nd
Projected Demand
=Yc
792.78
835.72
880.98
928.70
Y-Yc
3.22262136
47.2832437
31.0181309
62.3013137
(Y-Yc)^2/2=
sd
(Y-Yc)^2
10.39
2,235.71
962.12
3,881.45
7,089.67
1,417.93
37.66
nd
Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Projected Demand
=Yc
1,785.27
1,826.03
1,867.73
1,910.38
1954
Y-Yc
9.73345904
76.9677684
102.271213
181.622537
(Y-Yc)^2/2=
sd
(Y-Yc)^2
94.74
5,924.04
10,459.40
32,986.75
49,464.92
9,892.98
99.46
Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Yi + 1
979.00
1,032.03
1,087.92
1,146.85
1,208.97
(1 + r)
105.42%
105.42%
105.42%
105.42%
105.42%
=Yc
1,032
1,088
1,147
1,209
1,274
5,750
Yi + 1
1,954.00
1,998.62
2,044.26
2,090.94
2,138.68
(1 + r)
102.28%
102.28%
102.28%
102.28%
102.28%
=Yc
1,999
2,044
2,091
2,139
2,188
10,460
2yo
a + bx + cX^2
a= (X^4)(Y) - (X^2)(X^2Y)
N(X^4) - (X^2)^2
b=
XY
X^2
c=
N(X^2Y) - (X^2)(Y)
N(X^4) - (X^2)^2
Historical Demand
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
796.00
883.00
912.00
991.00
979.00
4,561.00
X^2
-2
-1
0
1
2
4
1
0
1
4
10
3 yo and above
a + bx + cX^2
a= (X^4)(Y) - (X^2)(X^2Y)
N(X^4) - (X^2)^2
b=
XY
X^2
c=
N(X^2Y) - (X^2)(Y)
N(X^4) - (X^2)^2
140,366.00
70
507.00
10
(2,185.00)
70
Historical Demand
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,795.00
1,903.00
1,970.00
2,092.00
1,954.00
9,714.00
X^2
-2
-1
0
1
2
4
1
0
1
4
10
2yo
65,334.00
70
474.00
10
(740.00)
70
X^4
XY
16
1
0
1
16
34
(1,592.00)
(883.00)
991.00
1,958.00
474.00
933.34
47.40
(10.57)
(X^2)Y
3,184.00
883.00
991.00
3,916.00
8,974.00
933.34
933.34
933.34
933.34
933.34
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
(X^2)Y
(10.57)
(10.57)
(10.57)
(10.57)
(10.57)
o and above
2,005.23
50.70
(31.21)
X^4
XY
16
1
0
1
16
34
(3,590.00)
(1,903.00)
2,092.00
3,908.00
507.00
7,180.00
1,903.00
2,092.00
7,816.00
18,991.00
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
(31.21)
(31.21)
(31.21)
(31.21)
(31.21)
=Yc
796.26
875.37
933.34
970.17
985.86
=Yc
1,778.97
1,923.31
2,005.23
2,024.71
1,981.77
Y-Yc
(Y-Yc)^2
(0.26)
7.63
(21.34)
20.83
(6.86)
(Y-Yc)^2/2=
0.07
58.20
455.52
433.83
47.02
994.63
198.93
sd
14.10
Y-Yc
(Y-Yc)^2
16.03
(20.31)
(35.23)
67.29
(27.77)
(Y-Yc)^2/2=
256.92
412.67
1,241.05
4,527.37
771.25
7,209.26
1,441.85
sd
37.97
Projected Demand
Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total
Projected Demand
Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
total
X^2
4
5
6
7
8
16
25
36
49
64
X^2
4
5
6
7
8
933.34
933.34
933.34
933.34
933.34
16
25
36
49
64
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
(10.57)
(10.57)
(10.57)
(10.57)
(10.57)
(31.21)
(31.21)
(31.21)
(31.21)
(31.21)
=Yc
954
906
837
747
636
4,080
=Yc
1,709
1,478
1,186
831
413
5,616
2Y0
Projected Demand
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total
3YO
Projected Demand
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
total
X2
4
5
6
7
8
30
16
25
36
49
64
190
X^2
4
5
6
7
8
30
16
25
36
49
64
190
933.34
933.34
933.34
933.34
933.34
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
=Yc
1,881
2,355
2,924
3,588
4,346
15,095
=Yc
3,019
3,526
4,135
4,844
5,656
21,180
X= Years
a=
Y - bX
v
b=
NXY - XY
NX^2 - (X)^2
879.50
5
175.90
55.00
1.10
50
176
177
179
188
176
896.00
X^2
XY
1
2
3
4
5
15
1
4
9
16
25
55
176.00
354.00
537.00
752.00
880.00
2,699.00
175.90
175.90
175.90
175.90
175.90
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
175.90
175.90
175.90
175.90
175.90
=Yc
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
Y-Yc
177.00
178.10
179.20
180.30
181.40
(Y-Yc)^2
(1.00)
(1.10)
(0.20)
7.70
(5.40)
(Y-Yc)^2/2=
1.00
1.21
0.04
59.29
29.16
90.70
18.14
sd
4.26
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
=Yc
7
8
9
10
11
183.60
184.70
185.80
186.90
188.00
929.00
183.60
184.70
185.80
186.90
188.00
929.00
a+Yi-1
Yn-Yc
N-1
0
4
0
Historical Supply
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
176.00
177.00
179.00
188.00
176.00
+Yi-1
176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00
Projected Supply
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
+Yi-1
176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00
pply
=Yc
Y-Yc
176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00
(Y-Yc)^2
0
1.00
3.00
12.00
(Y-Yc)^2/2=
sd
=Yc
176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00
880.00
0
1.00
9.00
144.00
154.00
30.80
5.55
Yi+1
1+r
Value of the Year Ahead
= % increase
N-1
0.09%
Historical Supply
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
176.00
177.00
179.00
188.00
176.00
% increase
0.57%
1.13%
5.03%
-6.38%
0.34%
Yi + 1
175.55
175.70
175.85
176.00
Projected Supply
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Yi + 1
176.00
176.15
176.30
176.45
176.60
(1 + r)
100.09%
100.09%
100.09%
100.09%
100.09%
storical Supply
/(1 + r)
100.09%
100.09%
100.09%
100.09%
=Yc
175.40
175.55
175.70
175.85
176
Y-Yc
0.6025275012
1.4520892826
3.3015220334
12.1508256428
(Y-Yc)^2/2=
sd
(Y-Yc)^2
0.36
2.11
10.90
147.64
161.01
32.20
5.67
=Yc
176.15
176.30
176.45
176.60
176.76
176
176
176
177
177
882.27
882
XY
X^2
c=
N(X^2Y) - (X^2)(Y)
N(X^4) - (X^2)^2
Histor
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
176
177
179
188
176
896.00
X^2
-2
-1
0
1
2
4
1
0
1
4
10
Projections
Projected Supply
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
X^2
4
5
6
7
8
16
25
36
49
64
12,734.00
70
181.91
11.00
1.10
10
(95.00)
70
(1.36)
Historical Supply
X^4
XY
16
1
0
1
16
34
(352.00)
(177.00)
188.00
352.00
11.00
X^2Y
704.00
177.00
188.00
704.00
1,773.00
181.91
181.91
181.91
181.91
181.91
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
(1.36)
(1.36)
(1.36)
(1.36)
(1.36)
Projections
a
181.91
181.91
181.91
181.91
181.91
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
(1.36)
(1.36)
(1.36)
(1.36)
(1.36)
=Yc
Y-Yc
(Y-Yc)^2
174.29
179.46
181.91
181.66
178.69
1.71
(2.46)
(2.91)
6.34
(2.69)
(Y-Yc)^2/2=
2.94
6.04
8.49
40.23
7.21
64.91
12.98
sd
3.60
=Yc
164.60
153.49
139.66
123.11
165
153
140
123
103.86
104
684.71
685