Month

Actual Sales Prec - mm Avg Temp Temp Coef

Temp Sales
13
Jan-13
5.8
13
18
Feb-13
130
19
55
0.6
Mar-13
24
58
Apr-13
0
30
81
May-13
0
34
84
Jun-13
305.1
31
73
144.9
Jul-13
30
65
Aug-13
132.8
29
41
Sep-13
39.2
30
29
Oct-13
38.3
26
19
Nov-13
0
20
15
Dec-13
8
17
16
Jan-14
33.2
14 1.0288925674 13.37560338
19
Feb-14
26.3
17 0.9622251859 17.32005335
51
Mar-14
5
24
1
55
52
Apr-14
0
30
1
58
77
May-14
5
34
1
81
72
Jun-14
12.1
36 1.0435446392 87.6577497
80
Jul-14
247.4
31 1.0096406704 73.70376894
59
Aug-14
175
32 1.0292341623 66.90022055
43
Sep-14
91.4
30
1
41
37
Oct-14
42.4
27 1.0115835512 29.33592298
27
Nov-14
0
21 1.0162865569 19.30944458
12
Dec-14
13.2
14 0.9314714457 13.97207169
17
Jan-15
24
14
1
16
21
Feb-15
29.8
20 1.0573620514 20.08987898
64
Mar-15
66
24
1
51
66
Apr-15
37
29 0.9900324657 51.48168821
82
May-15
0
35 1.008220242 77.63295863
84
Jun-15
58.5
35 0.9921387671 71.43399123
71
Jul-15
181.3
31
1
80
63
Aug-15
130.4
31 0.9908392621 58.45951646
42
Sep-15
6
32 1.0189752355 43.81593512
33
Oct-15
2
28 1.0110344188 37.40827349
23
Nov-15
0
24 1.0438595528 28.18420793
17
Dec-15
14.5
17 1.0735702147 12.88284258

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.956794002
R Square
0.915454762
Adjusted R Square 0.907402835
Standard Error
7.408777848
Observations
24
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Prec mm
Projected

SS
MS
F
Significance F
2 12481.31 6240.6551 113.69386666 5.4255E-012
21 1152.69 54.889989
23
13634

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat

P-value
Lower 95%
4.180493853 3.220191 1.2982132 0.2082915498 -2.51625909
0.019079952 0.024976 0.7639262 0.453409507 -0.03286084
0.909316999 0.067401 13.491176 8.15731E-012 0.769149219

Forecasted
Sales

Forecasting
Accuracy

Average Forecasting Accuracy

87%

Forecasted SalesJan-16
= 4.18 + 0.019*PrecJan-16
+ 0.90
Jan-16
Jan-16

Sales vs Temp
16.9692234688
20.4236284915
54.27
56.902
77.904
84.0907944737
75.8773259638
68.3173004796
43.1856
31.6519539925
21.7322851244
17.1314131624
19.18
23.0078999899
51.793
51.6798545871
74.7483593979
70.2249980293
80.3447
59.7973004645
44.1226850281
38.2221206064
29.7994450045
16.1660039023

94%
93%
94%
91%
99%
83%
95%
84%
100%
86%
80%
57%
87%
90%
81%
78%
91%
84%
87%
95%
95%
84%
70%
95%

15

20

25

30

35

Glucon D

Logarithmic (Gluco

Nycil

Logarithmic (Nycil)

16=( (
16))/( ( 15))

ificance F

Upper 95%
10.8772468001
0.0710207429
1.0494847795

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

-2.5162590933 10.87725
-0.0328608388 0.071021
0.7691492192 1.049485

0.019*PrecJan-16
+ 0.909* TempSalesJan-16
Jan-16
Jan-16

es vs Temp

35

40

Logarithmic (Glucon D)
Logarithmic (Nycil)

(
15))

45

50

Month
Actual Sales Prec - mm Avg Temp Temp Coef
Temp Sales
33
Jan-13
5.8
13
38
Feb-13
130
19
75
0.6
Mar-13
24
78
Apr-13
0
30
90
May-13
0
34
92
Jun-13
305.1
31
80
144.9
Jul-13
30
77
Aug-13
132.8
29
55
Sep-13
39.2
30
43
Oct-13
38.3
26
45
Nov-13
0
20
39
Dec-13
8
17
35
Jan-14
33.2
14 1.0288925674 33.95345472
40
Feb-14
26.3
17 0.9622251859 36.56455706
82
Mar-14
5
24
1
75
77
Apr-14
0
30
1
78
81
May-14
5
34
1
90
78
Jun-14
12.1
36 1.0435446392 96.00610681
67
Jul-14
247.4
31 1.0096406704 80.77125363
74
Aug-14
175
32 1.0292341623 79.2510305
54
Sep-14
91.4
30
1
55
49
Oct-14
42.4
27 1.0115835512 43.4980927
45
Nov-14
0
21 1.0162865569 45.73289506
41
Dec-14
13.2
14 0.9314714457 36.32738638
35
Jan-15
24
14
1
35
38
Feb-15
29.8
20 1.0573620514 42.29448206
75
Mar-15
66
24
1
82
71
Apr-15
37
29 0.9900324657 76.23249986
84
May-15
0
35 1.008220242 81.6658396
88
Jun-15
58.5
35 0.9921387671 77.38682383
81
Jul-15
181.3
31
1
67
73
Aug-15
130.4
31 0.9908392621 73.32210539
49
Sep-15
6
32 1.0189752355 55.02466271
41
Oct-15
2
28 1.0110344188 49.54068652
45
Nov-15
0
24 1.0438595528 46.97367988
40
Dec-15
14.5
17 1.0735702147 44.0163788

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.930691825
R Square
0.866187274
Adjusted R Square 0.853443204
Standard Error
7.176542767
Observations
24
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Prec
Temp

SS
MS
F
Significance F
2 7001.067 3500.5335 67.967872832 6.7332E-010
21 1081.558 51.502766
23 8082.625

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat

P-value
Lower 95%
5.887107686 4.894572 1.2027828 0.2424465245 -4.2917129
0.009681651 0.023146 0.4182807 0.6799883885 -0.03845372
0.871349292 0.078947 11.037096 3.35039E-010 0.707169318

Forecasted
Sales

Forecasting
Accuracy

Average Forecasting Accuracy

92%

Forecasted SalesJan-16
= 5.88 + 0.009*PrecJan-16
+ 0.
Jan-16
Jan-16
Sales vs Temp
35.7522590644
37.9644292024
71.25
73.818
84.315
89.6102190315
78.4583619114
76.4826475631
54.6076
44.1484387422
45.7133515982
37.6399535396
36.581
42.9866938711
77.896
72.6115073749
77.010946293
73.8104235594
65.8687
70.9171537979
53.8604812243
49.0479379586
46.7940751722
44.3487659384

98%
95%
87%
96%
96%
85%
83%
97%
99%
90%
98%
92%
95%
87%
96%
98%
92%
84%
81%
97%
90%
80%
96%
89%

15

20

25

30

35

Glucon D

Logarithmic (Gluco

Nycil

Logarithmic (Nycil)

16=( (
16))/( ( 15))

ificance F

Upper 95%
16.065928268
0.057817019
1.0355292649

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

-4.2917128967 16.06593
-0.0384537171 0.057817
0.7071693181 1.035529

.009*PrecJan-16
+ 0.871* TempSalesJan-16
Jan-16
Jan-16

es vs Temp

35

40

Logarithmic (Glucon D)
Logarithmic (Nycil)

(
15))

45

50