32101 5

2 ( Probability )
1 2555
( Introduction )


17 Cevaalier de Mere (Blaise Pascal)
(Pierre de Fermat)

( Fundamental Principles of Counting )

1 2 1
n1 1 2
n 2
= n 1 n 2

3 2

2
= 3 x 2 = 6

2
( Tree Diagram )
1

(1, 1)

(1, 2)

(2, 1)

2
1

(2, 2)
(3, 1)

(3, 2)

2 3

1
3
1 2 3
= 3 x 3 = 9

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( Tree Diagram )
1

(, )
(, )
(, )

(, )
(, )
(, )

(, )
(, )
(, )

3

3


2
= 3 x 2 = 6

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( Tree Diagram )
1
2

(1, 2)

(1, 3)

(2, 1)

3
1

(2, 3)
(3, 1)

(3, 2)

5 3

3

3

3

3

3
3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 =
5
5
5

35

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1

1.
3 2

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2. A a , b , c , d B x , y A B
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3. 6 4
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4. 8
4.1)
4.2)
4.3)
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2 k 1
n1 1 2
n 2 1 2
3 n 3
= n 1 n 2 n 3 ... n k
2 3 2

1 4
1
2
2 1 3
3 2
= 2 x 3 x 2 = 12
( Tree Diagram )
1
2
1
1

2
3
1

2
3

3
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2

(1,1,1)
(1,1,2)
(1,2,1)
(1,2,2)
(1,3,1)
(1,3,2)
(2,1,1)
(2,1,2)
(2,2,1)
(2,2,2)
(2,3,1)
(2,3,2)

H
T
1 2
2 2
3 2
1 3 = 2 x 2 x 2 = 8
{ HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT }
3 0, 1, 2, , 9

10
1 9 ( 0 )
1
9 ( 0 )
1
8
3 = 9 x 9 x 8 = 648
6 670

6
S = { 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 }
1 1 6
2 1 7
3 1 0
4 10 S
5 10 S

9
6 10 S
670
1 x 1 x 1 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 1000
5 4

1 5
2 4
3 3
4 2

5 x 4 x 3 x 2 = 120
2
1. 2
5.1)
5.2)
5.3)
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2. 2 3 5 2

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3. 2 8
2.1)
2.2) 2
2.3) 2

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4. 5 1 7
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5. 1 5 10

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6. 4
PROBABILITY
6.1) 4
6.2)
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7. 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 3
7.1)
7.2)
7.3)
7.4)
7.5) 500
7.6) 5 300
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( Random Experiment and Sample Space )



( Random Experiment )

(Tossing a Coin)
(Cating a Die)
1
(Define)
(Sample Space) (Outcome)

13
S
n(S)

1 1
H , T
= H, T

S = { , } {H , T}
n (S) = 2
1
=

S =
n (S) =

1
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
6

2 1
H , T
= (H,H), (H,T), (T,H), (T,T)

S = {(H,H), (H,T), (T,H), (T,T) }

n (S) = 4
(Define)
(Event)
E
n(E)

14

1 1
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

3
E 1 S E 2 S
E 1 E 2 (Event)

E 1 2 , 4 ,6

E 2 1,2

S E
E S
S
S S

E
E 0 n E n S
2 1
H , T
= (H,H), (H,T), (T,H), (T,T)

S = {(H,H), (H,T), (T,H), (T,T) }

n S = 4
2
E 1 = {(H,H)}
n E1 = 1
1 1
E 2 = {(H,T), (T,H) }
n E 2 = 2
S

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2 1

1
2
1
2
3
4
5
6

(1,1)
(2,1)
(3,1)
(4,1)
(5,1)
(6,1)

(1,2)
(2,2)
(3,2)
(4,2)
(5,2)
(6,2)

(1,3)
(2,3)
(3,3)
(4,3)
(5,3)
(6,3)

(1,4)
(2,4)
(3,4)
(4,4)
(5,4)
(6,4)

(1,5)
(2,5)
(3,5)
(4,5)
(5,5)
(6,5)

(1,6)
(2,6)
(3,6)
(4,6)
(5,6)
(6,6)

1. 1 2
2.
3. 13
4. 1 2

E 1 1 2
E 1 = {(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)}
E 2
E 2 = {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)}
E 13
E = { }
3

E4
E4

8
= {(2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3), (6,2) }

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(Union of Events)
E 1 E 2 E 1 E 2
E 1 E 2
E 1 E 2 E1 E 2
2 1 E 1 8
E 2 4
E 1 E 2

Sample Space (S) = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}

E1 = { 8 }
E 2 = {4, 8, 12}
E1 E 2 = {4, 8, 12}
8 4
(Intersection of Events)
E 1 E 2
E 1 E 2
E 1 E 2 E1 E 2

E1

E 2

E 1 E 2
8 4
E1 E 2 = { 8 }

E 1 25
E 2
E 1 E 2 25

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(Mutually Exclusive Events or Disjoint Events)
E 1 E 2 E1 E 2 =
E 1 E 2
2 1

E 1
E 2 7

E 1 = {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)}

E 2 = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)}
E1 E 2 =

E 1 E 2
(Complement of Events)
S E S
E (S) E
E E
E 1 E 2
E 1
E 2

S = { , , , }
E 1
E 1
E 1 = { , , }
E2
E 2

E 2
= { , , }

18
3

1. 2 1

2 1
H , T
S = { (HH), (HT), (TH), (TT) }
2 1
E = { (HH), (TT) }
2. 4 7 2 1
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3. 1 1
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4.
5
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5. 1 0 9 1
E 1
E 2
E 3 1 6
E 4 1 6 7
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6. 5 S
6.1 E 1 E 3
6.2 E1 E 2
6.3 E 3
6.4 S E 3
6.5 E 3 E 4 E 2
6.6 E1 E 3 E 4
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7. E1 , E 2 , E 3 5 -
7.1 E1 E 2
7.2 E 1 E 2
7.3 E1 E 3 E 2
7.4 E1 E 2 E 3
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(Probability of Events)
S = { H, T }

(
)
(N)
10
100
1000
10000
20000
40000

(n)
6
44
490
5043
10024
20032

( n/N)
0.6000
0.4400
0.4900
0.5034
0.5012
0.5008

0.5 0.5
(Empirical Probability)
()

0 1
N S
n E S

n
N

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P E

n
N

P E n E
n S
E

1 2
(1) ( E1)
(2) (E2)
(3) (E3)
(4) (E4)

S = {(HH), (HT), (TH), (TT) } ,

n (S)
E1 = {(HH), (HT), (TH) }
.
n(E1)
E2 = {(TT)}
,
n(E2)
E3 = {(HH)}
,
n(E3)
E4 = {(HT), (TH) }
,
n(E4)
(1) P(E1)

(2) P E2

(3) P E3

(4) P E4

n E1

n S
n E2

n S
n E3

n S
n E4
n S

3
4
1

4
1

4
2

P E

=
=
=
=
=

4
3
1
1
2

1
2

3
(1) (E1)
(2) 2 1 (E2)
(3) 1 2 (E3)
(4) (E4)

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S = { () , () . () , () , () , () , () , () }

n(S) = 8
n(E1) = 1
n(E2) = 3
n(E3) = 3
n(E4) = 1
(1) P(E1) =
(2) P(E2) =
(3) P(E3) =
(4) P(E1) =

n E1

n E2

1
8

n E3

3
8

3
8

n S

n S

n S

n E4
n S

1
8

4 15 150
5

4 { 20 , 24 , 28 , . . . , 148 }
n an = a1 + (n-1)d
148
= 20 + (n-1)(4)
148 - 20
= 4n 4
128 - 4
= 4n
124
4

= n

n = 31
n(S) = 31
5 4 20
= { 20 , 40 , 60 , . . . , 140 }

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n
140
140 - 20
140
n
n(E)

an = a1 + (n-1)d
= 20 + (n-1)(20)
= 20n 20
= 20n
= 7
=7

5 =

nE
n (S )

7
31

1. P(E) 0 P E 1
2. PE1 PE2 PE3 ... 1
3. P(E) = 1
4. P(E) = 0
5. P(E) =

1
2

50%

4
1. 5 2 2 1
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
.
.
.
.
.

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2. 1 4
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4 4
.
.
.
.
.
..
.
.
3. 1 1

.
.
.
.
.
..
.
.

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4. 3

(1)
(2)
(3) 3
(4) 2

x
3x

= 3x + 3x + 3x + x + x + x = 1
x

1
12

.
.
.
.
.
5. 3 16 215
7
.
.
.
.
.
..
.
.

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(Factorial)

(Factorial)
n n 1 n
n n!

n! = 1 2 3 4 (n-2)(n-1) n
n! = n (n-1)(n-2) 4 3 2 1 ** n! **
1! = 1
2! = 21 = 2
3! = 321 = 6

4! = 4321 = 24
5! = 54321 = 120

6! = 654321 = 720

7! = 7654321 = 5,050
8! = 87654321 = 40,320
9! = 987654321 = 362,880
10! = 10987654321 = 3,628,800

0! 0! = 1

n! = n(n-1)(n-2)4321

8! = 87654321

5! = 54321

8! = 8765!

8! = 87!

n! = n(n-1)!

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1
1.1 3!5!
1.2 7!2!
1.3 4!6!

1.1 3!5! = (3 2 1)(5 4 3 2 1) = 6 120 = 720

1.2 7!2! = (7 6 5 4 3 2 1)(2 1) = 5,050 2 = 10,080
1.3 4!6! = (4 3 2 1)(6 5 4 3 2 1) = 24 720 =17,280
2
2.1 75!!
2.2

2.1 75!!
=
2.2 109!!
=
2.3 43!!56!!
=
2.4 (n n!1)!
=

10!
9!

2.3 43!!56!!

2.4

n!
(n 1)!

2.5 ((nn 11)!)!

7 6 5!
= 76
= 42
5!
10 9!
= 10
9!
4 3!6!5!
= 46
= 24
3!5!
n(n 1)!
= n
(n 1)!
(n 1) n (n 1)!
2.5 ((nn 11)!)!
=
= (n 1) n
(n 1)!
3
1.1 100 99 98

96 95 ... 3 2 1 100!
100 99 98 =
100 99 98 x 97
97 96 95 ... 3 2 1 97!

1.2 11 12 13 14 15

11 12 13 14 15 =

9 8 ... 3 2 1 15!
15 14 13 12 11 10
10 9 8 ... 3 2 1
10!

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1.3 n(n+1)(n+2)(n+3)

n(n+1)(n+2)(n+3)

= (n 3)(n (2n)(n1)...1)n3(n211)... 3 2 1 ((nn 13)!)!

1.4 n(n 2 1)( n 2 4 )(n 2 9)

n(n 2 1)( n 2 4 )(n 2 9)

1.5 n(n+1)(n+2)(n+3) (n+r)

n(n+1)(n+2)(n+3) (n+r) =

= n(n-1)(n+1)(n-2)(n+2)(n-3)(n+3)
= (n+3)(n+2)(n+1)n (n-1)(n-2)(n-3)
= ((nn 43)!)!

(n r )!
(n 1)!

4 n
(n 3)! 30
1.1
(n 1)!

((nn 13)!)! (n 3)((nn 12)!)(n 1)! (n 3)(n 2)

n 2 5n 6

n 2 5n 6

30

n 2 5n 24 0
(n 8)(n 3) 0

n
= -8 ,3
n n = 3

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1.2

n!
n!

(n 10)! 10!
(n 8)! 8!

n!
n!
(n 10)! 10! (n 8)! 8!
n! (n 10)! 10!
n!
(n 8)! 8!
(n 10)! 10 9 8!
1 (n 8)(n 9)(n 10)! 8!
(n 8)(n 9) 10 9
n
= 18

5

1.
1.1 3! 6!

1.2 (5-3)!(7-2)!

8!
5! 3!

1.3

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2
(
3
!
)
1.4 (7 2)!

2.
2.1 50 49 48

2.2 25 25 23 10

2.3 n(n+1)(n+2)(n+3)(n+4)

2.4 2n(2n-1)(2n-2)(2n-3)

2.5 3n(9n2 9n +2)

3. n
3.1 (n n!2)! 930

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7 (n n!3)! 6 ((nn 12)!)!

3.3 3 ((22nn 41)!)! 2 (n n!4 )!

3.4 (n n!1)! 12 ((nn 12)!)!

4.
4.1 ((nn 13)!)!

4.2 (3(n3n)!3)!

4.3 (n n! 1(n)! (n2)!1)!

3.2

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(n 4 )! (n 3)!
(n 5)! (n 2)!

4.4