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Ngành Xây D NG - 16.03.2016 - MBS PDF
Ngành Xây D NG - 16.03.2016 - MBS PDF
Ngành Xây D NG - 16.03.2016 - MBS PDF
Bo co ln u
16/03/2016
Lun im u t
Tc tng trng ngnh xy dng c s tng quan cht ch vi s pht trin ca th trng bt
ng sn. K t khi nn kinh t hi phc, tc tng trng ngnh xy dng nc ta mc kh,
t bnh qun khong 4,4%/nm trong giai on 2013 2015, cao hn tc tng trng GDP
bnh qun nm 4,2%.
Theo quan im ca chng ti, chnh (i) s hi phc v trin vng kh quan ca th trng bt ng
sn, (ii) s n nh v tng trng ca nn kinh t, (iii) tng nhanh ca mc th ha, (iv) s
cho php mua v s hu nh ti Vit Nam i vi ngi nc ngoi, v (v) trin vng tch cc t
thu ht dng vn FDI l nhng yu t khin th trng xy dng dn dng pht trin hn trong giai
on 2016 2017.
im nhn u t
Analyst
Ri ro
Email:
hoa.nguyenquynh@mbs.com.vn
Tel: +84 934978887
www.mbs.com.vn
MC LC
IM NHN U T ................................................................................................... 3
Kinh t trong nc n nh v bn vng, h tr tng trng ngnh xy dng ..................... 3
Tc th ha nc ta ngy cng ci thin l nn tng c bn pht trin ngnh xy
dng dn dng .............................................................................................................. 5
Xu hng m ln ca th trng bt ng sn tip tc c ghi nhn ................................ 6
Lut Nh (sa i) v Lut Kinh doanh BS (sa i) cho php t chc, c nhn nc
ngoi mua nh ti Vit Nam ......................................................................................... 7
Thu ht dng vn FDI trong lnh vc xy dng, bt ng sn v cng nghip c k vng
tng trng nh cc tc ng t cc Hip nh thng mi t do ...................................... 7
RI RO ........................................................................................................................ 9
Lo ngi v gim bt ngun cung trong bt ng sn nh , nh hng n ngun cng vic
trong lnh vc xy dng dn dng ................................................................................... 9
Chi ph pht sinh thc t ca d n cao hn so vi d ton, nh hng n kt qu hot
ng ca doanh nghip ................................................................................................ 10
PHN TCH SWOT .....................................................................................................11
CC DOANH NGHIP NIM YT ...............................................................................12
CTCP XY DNG COTEC (CTD) ..................................................................................... 13
16/03/2016
IM NHN U T
Kt thc giai on khng hong kinh t 2010 2012, tc tng trng ngnh xy dng
nc ta t bnh qun 4,4%/nm trong 3 nm tr li y, t 2013 2015, cao hn tc
tng trng GDP bnh qun nm 4,2%. Tnh ring giai on 2014 2015, tc tng trng
ca ring ngnh xy dng l 10,82% mc tng cao nht k t nm 2010 v l ngnh c
tc tng trng cao th ba trong s cc ngnh ng gp vo GDP c nc (theo s liu
t Tng cc Thng k). Trn thc t, tc tng trng ngnh xy dng c s tng quan
cao vi s pht trin ca th trng bt ng sn.
Theo quan im ca chng ti, ngnh xy dng dn dng s tip tc kh quan trong
nm 2016 2017, da trn nn tng: (i) Kinh t trong nc tng trng n nh,
bn vng, (ii) tc th ha c ci thin v k vng tng mnh trong tng
lai, (iii) th trng bt ng sn hi phc tch cc, (iv) Lut Nh (sa i) v
Lut kinh doanh BS (sa i) cho php c nhn, t chc nc ngoi mua v s
hu nh ti Vit Nam, v (v) thu ht dng vn FDI tch cc.
Cng theo d bo ca BMI, ngnh xy dng dn dng v cng nghip c tng trng bnh
qun 6,6%/nm trong giai on 2017 2025. Nm 2016, gi tr ngnh c d bo tng
5,5% so vi 2015.
Biu 1: Gi tr (hin hnh) v tc tng trng ngnh xy dng dn dng
T ng
700,000
8.0%
600,000
7.0%
6.0%
500,000
5.0%
400,000
4.0%
300,000
3.0%
200,000
2.0%
100,000
1.0%
0.0%
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2022E
2023E
2024E
2025E
Tc tng trng GDP cao, trong ngnh xy dng t mc tng cao nht
Tnh n ht nm 2015, tc tng trng GDP ghi nhn con s cao nht trong vng 5
nm tr li y 6,68%. Xt t gc tng cung, s phc hi ca nn kinh t ch yu
n t ngnh cng nghip v xy dng. C th, theo s liu t Tng cc thng k, mc
d ngnh ny ch chim t trng 33,25%, nhng tng trng kh mnh v ng gp
16/03/2016
gn 50% cho s tng trng ca GDP, tng ng khong 3,2 im phn trm, cao hn
ng gp t ngnh dch v.
Theo m hnh d bo ca MBS, nm 2016, tc tng trng GDP ca nc
ta c th t mc 6,8%. Ngn hng ANZ cng nh gi Vit nam l nh sng him
hoi trong bi cnh kinh t ton cu cn nhiu kh khn.
12.0
10.0
15.0
8.0
12.0
6.0
9.0
4.0
6.0
2.0
3.0
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
0.0
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2015
0.0
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
18.0
GDP
Bin ng li sut
200
54
52
150
50
48
46
44
42
18.0%
15.0%
12.0%
100
9.0%
50
6.0%
3.0%
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
PMI (tri)
Jan-15
Jul-15
0.0%
2002
Jan-16
Ch s SXCN (phi)
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Li sut tin gi
Tc tng trng d n
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
11T2015
-20.0%
Tng d n
D n ngnh xy dng
D n bt ng sn
16/03/2016
Ch s nim tin ngi tiu dng (CCI) tip tc c ci thin, t mc cao nht
trong khu vc chu , 144,8 im trong thng 12/2015 (theo ANZ), phn nh nim tin
gia tng vo trin vng nn kinh t Vit Nam trong 12 thng v 5 nm ti.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
CAGR
2010 - 2014
Vit Nam
27,9%
30,4%
31,0%
31,7%
32,3%
33,0%
35,7%
1,6%
Indonesia
46,7%
49,9%
50,7%
51,5%
52,3%
53,0%
1,2%
Thi Lan
38,8%
44,1%
45,4%
46,7%
47,9%
49,2%
2,2%
Myanmar
29,4%
31,4%
31,9%
32,5%
33,0%
33,6%
1,3%
Philippin
46,3%
45,3%
45,0%
44,8%
44,6%
44,5%
-0,3%
Lo
28,5%
33,1%
34,3%
35,4%
36,5%
37,6%
2,5%
Ngun: WB
Mc th ha n 2015 t 35,7%, tng trng bnh qun 3,3%/nm trong
giai on 2010 2015. Theo thng k t Ngn hng Th gii, nu so snh vi mt s
nc trong khu vc, r rng mc th ha ca nc ta cn kh thp, mi ch t
khong 35,7% trong nm 2015 (thp hn so vi con s thc cc nc t c nm 2014).
Tuy nhin, cn phi nhn thy rng tc tng trng v mc th ha trong giai on
2010 2014 vn mc kh, khong 1,6%/nm. Nm 2016, t l th ha phn u
t khong 36,8%, tng 3,1% so vi thc t nm 2015.
Theo d bo ca Lin hip quc, dn s thnh th nc ta s t khong gn 56 triu
ngi vo nm 2050, mc th ha t 54%, tng ng tc tng trng bnh qun
nm khong 1,3%/nm, cao hn so vi hu ht cc quc gia trong khu vc.
Din tch sn nh bnh qun phn u t 29m2/ngi vo nm 2020. Bn cnh
, cng tc pht trin nh theo Chin lc pht trin nh quc gia tip tc c y
5
16/03/2016
Th trng bn l tip tc din bin tt vi t l trng duy tr mc 10% 12%. Theo s liu t CBRE, ngun cung Trung tm thng mi (TTTM) ti H Ch Minh
nm 2015 tng hn 12 ln so vi nm 2007, t khong 500.000m2 din tch thc
thu, trong khi th trng H Ni cung cp gn 700.000 m2 ghi nhn mc tng 19% so
vi nm 2014. Do qu t ti cc vng trung tm cn hn ch v chi ph t cao, xu
hng xy dng v khai trng TTTM ti khu vc ngoi trung tm ngy cng gia tng,
nhm vo phn khc bnh dn, p ng c nhu cu ca ngi dn ni khu.
Vic hi nhp su rng hn khi Vit Nam tham gia vo cc Hip nh thng mi t do,
c bit l Hip nh i tc Kinh t Chin lc xuyn Thi Bnh Dng (TPP), vi s m
rng mnh m ca cc thng hiu trong v ngoi nc l ng lc chnh lm tng nhu
cu thu mt bng ca th trng bn l. CBRE d bo ngun cung ca th trng
Th trng khu cng nghip: cu gia tng mnh m: Vic Vit Nam gia nhp vo
cc Hip nh thng mi t do thu ht mnh m dng vn u t t nc ngoi,
lm tng nhanh qu trnh chuyn dch nh my t cc quc gia lng ging sang nc ta,
c bit l t Trung Quc. Nhu cu v nh kho, nh my, v t cng nghip tng cao,
ch yu ti cc vng kinh t trng im (H Ni, H Ch Minh) v vng ln cn (Bnh
Dng, Long An, Bc Ninh).
Lut Nh (sa i) v Lut Kinh doanh BS (sa i) cho php t chc, c nhn
nc ngoi mua nh ti Vit Nam
Lut Nh (sa i) v Lut Kinh doanh BS (sa i) c thng qua v c hiu lc k t
ngy 01/07/2015 c ngha ht sc quan trng v tc ng tch cc n hot ng pht
trin nh v kinh doanh bt ng sn. Trong , ng lu l quy nh v vic cho php
ngi nc ngoi s hu nh ti Vit Nam vi nhiu quyn hn, khng ch gii hn mua
theo quy nh trc .
i vi th trng cho thu vn phng: Cc doanh nghip, t chc c vn u t nc
ngoi c php cho thu li ti sn h ang thu, ng thi c th mua li v s hu cc
ta nh hon thin s dng. Quy nh ny s tc ng tt ln th trng vn
T sau ngy 01/07, th trng ghi nhn lng khch nc ngoi cng nh kiu bo Vit
Nam ti nc ngoi quan tm nhiu n cc d n cao cp c cht lng tt v c
u t bi cc nh thu danh ting. Kt qu t sau khi ban hnh v c hiu lc
16/03/2016
1,000
15,000
triu USD
S d n cp mi
1,200
800
12,500
10,000
600
7,500
400
5,000
200
2,500
10
81
118
23
107
35
112
34
2013
2014
2015
0
2012
2013
CN ch bin, ch to
Ngnh xy dng
2014
2015
Ngnh bt ng sn
Khc
2012
CN ch bin, ch to
Ngnh bt ng sn
Ngnh xy dng
Khc
FDI trong CN ch bin, ch to ln, kch thch nhu cu xy dng nh xng: Chng
ta d dng nhn thy dng vn u t vo lnh vc ch bin, ch to lun chim t trng
cao, trung bnh khong 70% trong c cu vn FDI vi s lng cc d n mi v tng thm
chim li th tuyt i. Nhu cu xy dng nh xng v th cng gia tng mnh m, c bit
trong cc ngnh c hng li t cc Hip nh thng mi t do, nh dt may, thy sn
Ch ngay u nm 2016, mt vi d n ln c cp giy chng nhn u t nh d n
Nh my may ca Cng ty TNHH Maple (Singapore) vi tng vn u t d kin khong 110
triu USD, d n xy dng nh my Aureumaex Precision Plastics 21 triu USD Ngoi ra, k
hoch u t cc d n ca Amata (Thi Lan) Qung Ninh v ng Nai, vi quy m vn
ln ti hng t USD, m thm mt nh my 500 triu USD na Vit Nam ca Hyosung
(Hn Quc), hay d n nng thm 500 triu USD vn u t ti Vit Nam ca Jabil Circuit
(M)...cng s l nhng d n ln c ch trong nm 2016.
Nh vy, ngoi dng vn FDI trong bn thn lnh vc xy dng, dng vn FDI chy vo lnh
vc bt ng sn v sn xut s to ngun vic ln cho hu ht cc doanh nghip xy dng
trong nc, y mnh kh nng tng trng v trin vng kh quan cho ngnh.
16/03/2016
RI RO
Lo ngi v gim bt ngun cung trong bt ng sn nh , nh hng n ngun
cng vic trong lnh vc xy dng dn dng
Ngun cung nh c CBRE d bo khng tng nhiu, thm ch c xu hng gim trong
mt vi nm ti, c th ti th trng H Ch Minh, c khong hn 18.200 cn h hng sang
v cao cp s c cho bn trong nm 2016, tng t nh nm 2015 nhng s mnh vo
nm 2018 do qu t ti cc v tr c a b thu hp. T l tiu th nm 2016 c d bo
s chm hn nm 2015 do gi bn cao hn, ngi mua nh cha th thch ng ngay c.
Th trng tip tc gim nhit trong hai nm tip theo.
Biu 6: Th trng nh ti TP H Ch Minh
Ngun: CBRE
Tng t ti th trng H Ni, nm 2016 c tnh c khong 6.000 cn h cao cp s c
tung ra th trng, con s tng t nm 2015, tuy nhin s chm li trong 2 nm 2017 v
2018 khi th trng h nhit sau hai nm tng trng nng. S cn bn cng s c xu
hng tng t nh ngun cung tung ra th trng.
Biu 7: Th trng nh ti H Ni
Ngun: CBRE
Xu hng gi nguyn ngun cung trong nm 2016 v gim trong 2 nm ti, trn thc t nh
hng n ngun cng vic cng nh tc tng trng ca hu ht cc doanh nghip hot
ng trong lnh vc xy dng nh dn dng.
Tuy nhin, cng phi tha nhn rng, a phn cc doanh nghip ny khng ch n thun
tp trung vo mt lnh vc nht nh, m cn tm kim c hi trong cc lnh vc khc nh
xy dng khu cng nghip, c s h tng, hay khu vn phng, ngh dng V vy, chng
16/03/2016
ti cho rng, mc d trin vng v xy dng nh dn dng gim, nhng cc doanh nghip
xy dng vn c th b p c ri ro t vic tham gia vo cc d n khc.
Chi ph pht sinh thc t ca d n cao hn so vi d ton, nh hng n kt
qu hot ng ca doanh nghip
Ngoi nhng yu t v trnh qun l, i ng thi cng, tin ca cc cng trnh xy
dng ph thuc kh nhiu vo quy trnh gii phng mt bng, iu kin thi tit v s c
sn ca nguyn nhin vt liu. Vic nh tr thi cng cng trnh c th gy nh hng n
gi tr thi cng, lm tng mc vn u t thc t so vi d ton.
Trn thc t, c khng t cc d n b i vn ln gp nhiu ln so vi k hoch ban u do
nh hng bi cc vn v t gi v gii phng mt bng gp kh khn, ngoi cc vn
v trnh lp k hoch, nghin cu d n, nh d n ng st th H Ni. iu ny
nh hng nghim trng n kt qu li nhun ca cc nh thu thi cng cng trnh.
Trng hp ca CTCP Xy dng v kinh doanh a c Ha Bnh (HBC) l mt v d in hnh.
Mc d kt qu thc hin nm 2015 ca Cng ty vn vt tri so vi thc hin ca 2014,
nhng ch t 50% k hoch ra. Nguyn nhn l do l t 3 d n SSG Tower, VietinBank
Tower v Estella. d n u tin, chi ph thc t pht sinh cao hn d ton trong khi hai
d n cn li tng do thay i phng php thi cng. y hon ton l nhng nguyn nhn
m k hoch ngay t u nm khng th lng trc c. Ri ro t nhng vn pht
sinh trn l tng i cao trong hot ng ca bt k doanh nghip xy dng no.
10
16/03/2016
IM YU
C HI
11
THCH THC
16/03/2016
Dng tin
t do FCF
N/ Vn
ha
Bin li
nhun
gp (%)
Bin li
nhun rng
(%)
13.669
666
986
0,00
8,14
1.473
5.085
91
-453
1,39
SC5
405
1.431
36
104
CTX
540
321
19
TA9
201
2.342
VC1
115
VC2
EPS
BVPS
(VN)
4,87
5,92
0,87
-93
33
368
155
VC6
M CP
Vn
ha
DTT
(VN)
P/E
(ln)
P/B
(ln)
CTD
7.954
14.770
74.967
11,51
2,27
HBC
1,79
1.204
14.191
16,20
1,37
5,10
2,52
2.387
20.772
11,31
1,30
0,60
9,19
5,76
3.931
20.570
5,21
1,00
-4
0,27
5,32
1,42
5.212
13.535
4,72
1,82
12
-18
0,00
6,78
3,25
1.658
33.323
9,65
0,48
673
15
-8
1,86
10,27
2,19
1.244
23.323
10,53
0,56
76
527
-63
1,67
4,29
0,42
278
13.398
34,17
0,71
VC7
101
378
148
0,31
10,14
1,89
954
15.446
14,05
0,87
VC9
104
755
15
33
2,33
7,91
1,94
1.218
16.635
7,31
0,54
VCC
118
1.005
25
1,01
8,18
2,46
4.117
16.762
4,76
1,17
Trung v
0,87
7,91
2,19
10,53
1,00
Bnh qun
0,94
7,38
2,59
11,77
1,10
12
Hot ng xy dng cng nghip (ch yu xy dng cc khu cng nghip) chim t
trng ln trong c cu doanh thu. Vic Vit Nam tham gia vo cc Hip nh thng
mi t do vi nhu cu v xy dng nh my tng ln s to iu kin m rng ngun
vic cho COTECCONS.
16/03/2016
KH QUAN
200.000
COTECCONS l cng ty xy dng dn dng u ngnh vi kh nng qun l dng tin hiu
qu v sc khe ti chnh lnh mnh. Chng ti d phng doanh thu v li nhun sau thu
ca CTD nm 2016 t tng ng hn 19.000 t ng v 889 t ng. EPS d phng
2016 c tnh 18.994 ng.
18%
Ch tiu ti chnh c bn
n v: T ng
2013
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
6.190
7.633
13.669
19.034
21.079
384
474
913
1.177
1.303
257
327
666
889
990
EPS (VND)
6.103
7.769
14.235
18.994
21.156
BVPS (VND)
54.647
59.982
69.298
85.278
103.434
170.000
P/E forward
9,0x
8,0x
S lng CP nim
43.253.000
yt
S lng CP lu
46.790.874
hnh
Vn ha th trng
7.954
(t VND)
Khong gi
60.900 174.000
52 tun
% s hu nc
47,28%
ngoi
% gii hn s hu
49%
nc ngoi
P/B forward
2,0x
1,6x
Gi hin ti (VND)
Tng quan DN
COTECCONS l cng ty dn u
trong lnh vc xy dng dn dng,
chim lnh th phn ln nht trong
th phn xy dng ngoi quc
doanh, c kh nng thc hin cc
loi cng trnh hin i v quy m
ln trong c nc. Mt s cng
trnh xy dng tiu
biu
COTECCONS thc hin: Masteri
Tho
in,
Regina
Miracle
International Vietnam, nh my
Worldon giai on 2, Park Hill
Times City
Ngun: MBS tng hp
13
Lun im u t
Chng ti khuyn ngh KH QUAN i vi c phiu CTD ca CTCP Xy dng COTEC
vi mc gi mc tiu 12 thng 200.000 ng/c phiu, cao hn 18% so vi mc gi
170.000 ngy 16/03/2016.
Vi v th l doanh nghip dn u trong lnh vc xy dng dn dng v nng lc thi cng cc
cng trnh hin i v quy m ln, COTECCONS c kh nng tm kim v thu ht cc d n c
quy m ln trong tng lai. Mt u im ln m COTECCONS vt tri hn so vi cc cng ty
trong ngnh l kh nng qun l dng tin tt trong khi khng pht sinh bt k khon vay n
no. Vi xu hng pht trin n nh ca th trng bt ng sn trong nm 2016 cng nh
vic hp th tt dng tin FDI nh cc tc ng tch cc ca cc Hip nh thng mi t do,
chng ti tin rng ngoi nhng cng trnh xy dng nh m COTECCONS tham gia, Cng ty s
tm kim c nhiu hn ngun cng vic t xy dng cng nghip. Chng ti nh gi trin
vng kh quan i vi c phiu CTD ca Cng ty.
im nhn
t ng
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
Hiu qu sinh li
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2013
2012
2013
2014
2015
2014
2015
ROE
ROA
Bin li nhun gp
t ng
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
CTD
HBC
-1,000
SC5
CTX
TA9
VC1
VC2
VC6
VC7
VC9
VCC
Tng n
14
16/03/2016
Ngoi ra, thm mt d n ln na m COTECCONS lm Tng thu thit k thi cng trong
nm nay l d n River City, H Ch Minh vi tng vn u t d kin 500 triu USD, din tc
t 11,25ha.
y l hai d n ln nht k t u nm 2016 m COTECCONS nhn c. Chng ti cho
rng vi nhng li th cnh tranh vt tri ca COTECCONS so vi cc i th trong ngnh,
th phn ca COTECCONS s tch cc ci thin trong nhng nm ti.
23%
25%
Khc
45%
38%
38%
40%
Chung c
Cng nghip
36%
20%
Thng mi, VP
Khch sn, resort
0%
2013
2014
2015
15
Chi ph qun l chim t trng khng i so vi nm 2015, khong 2,7% trn doanh thu
thun.
16/03/2016
nh gi
Chng ti nh gi mc tiu 12 thng ca c phiu CTD vo khong 200.000 ng da trn
phng php P/E.
Hin ti, mc P/E bnh qun ngnh xy dng dn dng l 10,5 ln, trong khi P/E bnh qun
ca c phiu CTD trong vng 6 thng tr li y dao ng trung bnh 11,5 ln. Tuy nhin, trn c
s thn trng, v so snh vi mc P/E bnh qun trong vng 1 nm tr li y, chng ti p dng
mc P/E 10,5 ln (P/E bnh qun ca c phiu CTD trong vng 1 nm) v EPS d phng nm
2016 l 18.994 ng nh gi c phiu ny.
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Lin h:
Research: Nguyn Qunh Hoa
Email:hoa.nguyenquynh@mbs.com.vn
Tel: +84 934978887
H Thng Khuyn Ngh: H thng khuyn ngh ca MBS c xy dng da trn mc chnh lch ca gi mc tiu 12 thng v gi c phiu trn th
trng ti thi im nh gi
Xp hng
MUA
>=20%
KH QUAN
T 10% n 20%
PH HP TH TRNG
T -10% n +10%
KM KH QUAN
T -10% n - 20%
BN
<= -20%
MBS HI S
Ta nh MB, s 3 Liu Giai, Ba nh, H Ni
T: + 84 4 3726 2600 - Fax: +84 3726 2601
Webiste: www.mbs.com.vn
Tuyn b min trch nhim: Bn quyn nm 2014 thuc v Cng ty CP Chng khon MB (MBS). Nhng thng tin s dng trong bo co c thu thp
t nhng ngun ng tin cy v MBS khng chu trch nhim v tnh chnh xc ca chng. Quan im th hin trong bo co ny l ca (cc) tc gi v
khng nht thit lin h vi quan im chnh thc ca MBS. Khng mt thng tin cng nh kin no c vit ra nhm mc ch qung co hay khuyn
ngh mua/bn bt k chng khon no. Bo co ny khng c php sao chp, ti bn bi bt k c nhn hoc t chc no khi cha c php ca MBS.
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