Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh

Thi cuc thay i t nhng chui bn l

Bo co ln u 12/09/2016

Th trng tiu th mt hng cng ngh in t lun c s tng trng u n qua

cc nm vi tc trung bnh 15,7%/nm v k vng s tip tc pht trin.
Th trng bn l cng ngh in t ang dn tr nn tp trung v gim phn mnh
do s pht trin ca cc chui bn l.
Cc doanh nghip phn phi ang gp nhiu cn tr pht trin khi th trng
ngy cng b thu hp.
Quan im u t: Bn l TCH CC
Phn phi TRUNG LP

LUN IM U T

Nhu cu tiu th cc mt hng cng ngh (technical consumer goods) ti

Vit Nam c mc tng trng u qua cc nm. Trong giai on 2011 2015,
nhu cu tiu th cc mt hng ny tng trng vi tc bnh qun 15,7%/nm.
Trong 6 thng u nm 2016, tng mc tiu th mt hng cng ngh t 94.472
t ng, tng 17,4% so vi cng k.

Trong tng lai, th trng c d bo s tip tc tng trng khi cc

hng sn xut lin tc c ci tin ra mt sn phm mi trn nn tng in thoi
thng minh. ng thi, nhu cu tiu th cng gia tng cng vi s gia tng thu
nhp bnh qun u ngi.

u n qua cc nm, th phn ca cc chui bn l hin i dn dn gia tng,

v ln su vo th phn ca cc ca hng nh l truyn thng (mom and pop). T nm
2011, th phn ca cc chui bn l hin i ch chim khong di 20%, trong khi n
nm 2016, th phn ca cc chui bn l trong th trng hng ha cng ngh in t
gia tng ln mc khong 55%.

Th trng hng ha cng ngh in t dnh cho cc nh phn phi bn s

ngy cng thu hp, khi m th phn ca cc ca hng mom and pop ang st gim
mnh. Do cc chui bn l ln ang dn nhp hng trc tip t cc nh sn xut, thay
v thng qua cc nh phn phi bn s. Tuy nhin, cc doanh nghip phn phi c th
gi vng c v th trung gian phn phi, bng chin lc phn phi c quyn km
theo dch v marketing cho cc hng sn xut.

QUAN IM U T

Chuyn vin phn tch

Lm Trn Tn S

Sau khi xem xt chui gi tr ngnh phn phi v bn l hng cng ngh in t, chng ti
xut hai c hi u t tng ng vi hai mng ln lt l CTCP Digiworld (DGW) v
CTCP u t Th gii Di ng (MWG), do nhng lun im sau:

DGW: l mt trong s t doanh nghip hot ng phn phi c quyn cho cc hng sn
xut, km theo cc dch v marketing v bn hng. iu ny gip doanh nghip duy tr
c v th v th trng trong bi cnh ngnh phn phi gp kh khn.
MWG: trong hin ti l chui bn l c quy m ln nht trn th trng hng cng ngh
in t. V th ca doanh nghip c xy dng t cht lng dch v, qun tr hng tn
kho, v chnh sch nhn s. iu ny gip doanh nghip to s vt tri so vi cc ca
hng bn l truyn thng, gia tng th phn v tng trng trong tng lai.

Email: si.lamtrantan@mbs.com.vn
Tel: +84 949 187 525

www.mbs.com.vn

Gii php kinh doanh chuyn bit

C HI U T
M CP

Khuyn
ngh

Gi hin ti
(VND)

P/E
2015

P/E
2016F

Gi mc tiu
(VND)

Upside
(%)

MWG

MUA

144.000

19,7x

11,8x

192.000

33,3%

DGW

MUA

16.100

4,7x

5,4x

21.000

30,4%

RI RO

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

Ri ro thay i knh phn phi, hng ha c th c bn trc tip t nh sn xut

n nh bn l, lm th trng phn phi b thu hp.

Hng ha cng ngh nhanh chng b li thi v vy gi tr hng tn kho s nhanh chng
st gim nu khng bn hng nhanh.

Cc doanh nghip nhp khu hng ha bng ngoi t, do cc doanh nghip trong
ngnh chu ri ro bin ng t gi.

12/09/2016

3 bng biu/ th quan trng nht

Biu 1: Th trng bn l cng ngh in t Vit Nam

Trong giai on 2011 2015, nhu

cu tiu th cc mt hng ny
tng trng vi tc bnh qun
15,7%/nm. Nm 2015, mc tiu
dng cho hng ha cng ngh t
139.049 t ng.

VT: T ng

VT: T USD

160,000

250

140,000
200

120,000
100,000

150

Technical goods demand

Household Spending

80,000
100

60,000
40,000

GDP

50

20,000
0

0
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Biu 2: Quy m v hiu qu cc chui bn l in thoi

Thegioididong.com v FPT Shop l

hai chui c hiu qu kinh doanh
cao. Bnh qun din tch sn mi
ca hng kinh doanh ca hai chui
ny kh nh dao ng trong khong
100 150 mt vung.

VT: Ca hng

VT: Nghn mt vung

600

70

500

60

Thegioididong Outlets
FPT Shop Outlets

50

400

Viettel Outlets
40

Vien Thong A Outlets

300

Doanh thu trung bnh trn din tch

sn kh cao v tng ng nhau,
bnh
qun
t
31,8
triu
ng/m2/thng.

Thegioididong Square

30

200

FPT Shop Square

Viettel Store Square

20

100

Vien Thong A Square

10

0
2012

2013

2014

2015

Biu 3: Doanh thu ca cc cng ty phn phi

Tri ngc vi s pht trin ca cc

chui bn l, th trng ca cc nh
phn phi ang b thu hp dn. Cc
chui bn l ln c xu hng s
nhp hng trc tip t nh sn
xut.
Trong giai on 2010 2015,
doanh thu ca cc nh phn phi
hu nh khng tng trng.

VT: T ng
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000

PET

10,000

FPT Trading

8,000

DGW

6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2010

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

12/09/2016

MC LC
TNG QUAN NGNH ..................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Th trng tiu th mt hng cng ngh in t Vit Nam lin tc tng trng ................................................................................. 5
Th trng bn l in thoi di ng vn cn hp dn v k vng s tip tc tng trng trong di hn. ............................................. 6
Chui gi tr ngnh phn phi bn l cng ngh in t .................................................................................................................. 8
Th trng bn l cng ngh in t tp trung dn vo tay nhng chui bn l ln ........................................................................... 8
Cc nh phn phi bn s ang mt dn th trng ....................................................................................................................... 11

RI RO I VI NGNH ............................................................................................................................................................ 13
Ri ro thay i cu trc ngnh .................................................................................................................................................... 13
Ri ro hng tn kho .................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Ri ro thay i cng ngh ........................................................................................................................................................... 13
Ri ro bin ng t gi ............................................................................................................................................................... 13

CTCP u t Th gii Di ng ....................................................................................................................................................14

CTCP Th gii s .........................................................................................................................................................................24

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

TNG QUAN NGNH

Th trng tiu th mt hng cng ngh in t Vit Nam lin tc tng trng
Biu 4: Th trng bn l cng ngh in t Vit Nam
VT: T ng

VT: T USD

160,000

250

140,000
200

120,000
100,000

150

Technical goods demand

Household Spending

80,000
100

60,000
40,000

GDP

50

20,000
0

0
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Ngun: GFK, World Bank

Trong nhng nm va qua, nhu cu tiu th cc mt hng c s tng trng tng
quan vi mc tng trng GDP. Trong giai on 2011 2015, nhu cu tiu th cc mt hng
ny tng trng vi tc bnh qun 15,7%/nm. Nm 2015, tng gi tr tiu dng t 125,7
t USD, tng ng 2.827.477 t ng, trong tiu dng cho hng ha cng ngh t 139.049
t ng. So vi mc chi tiu nm 2014, tiu dng hng ha cng ngh ghi nhn s tng trng
mnh 19,8%.
Biu 5: Cu trc ngnh cng ngh in t

VT: T ng
70,000

35%
32%

30%

60,000

25%

50,000
18%

40,000

20%
16%

15%
10%

30,000

5%

20,000

0%

10,000

-5%

-6%

-10%
Mobile

Laptop
2014

CE and Apps
2015

Office Equipment

Growth

Ngun: GFK
Cc mt hng cng ngh bao gm in thoi di ng, in my, laptop, my tnh bng
v thit b vn phng. Trong cc mt hng in t, mc chi tiu mua sm cho cc mt hng
in thoi di ng trong nm 2015 chim t trng ln nht 47% v ng thi c tc tng
trng cao nht 32% so vi nm 2014. Nhm mt hng in my c tc tiu th tng trng
cao th hai so vi in thoi di ng, t mc tng trng 18%. Ngc chiu vi s pht trin
5

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

cng ngh, mc tiu th sn phm laptop c xu hng chng li trong nhng nm qua v st
gim 6% so vi cng k.
Trong 6 thng u nm 2016, tng mc tiu th mt hng cng ngh t 94.472 t
ng, tng 17,4% so vi cng k. Trong , nhm hng in my (MDA), in t (CE) c tc
tng trng kh hp dn ln lt t 19,6% v 29,5% so vi cng k. Nguyn nhn khin th
trng u nm 2016 tiu th kh tt do nng nng t El Nino v s kin th thao EURO. Ngoi
ra, th trng tiu th in thoi di ng trong u nm tip tc tng trng bn vng vi tc
cao 27,9% so vi cng k.
Th trng bn l in thoi di ng vn cn hp dn v k vng s tip tc tng
trng trong di hn.
Trong nhng nm qua, th trng in thoi di ng din ra s chuyn dch r rng t in
thoi chc nng (feature phone) sang in thoi thng minh (smartphone). Chnh s chuyn dch
ny to ra s tng trng mnh m trong nhu cu tiu dng in thoi. Trong giai on 2013
2015, tc tng trng trong tiu th in thoi lun t t l cao quanh mc 30%.
Biu 6: Nhu cu chuyn dch sang in thoi thng minh

VT: n v
25,000,000

20,000,000

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

0
2011

2012

2013
Smart Phone

2014

2015

2016

2017

Feature Phone

Ngun: GFK v MBS

Nm 2015, s lng in thoi smartphone tiu dng t khong 55% tng s lng in
thoi bn ra trong nm. ng thi, nu tnh theo gi tr, mc tiu th in thoi thng minh chim
n khong 90%. Tuy nhin, chng ti cho rng s tng trng trong tiu dng in thoi di
ng s khng dng li, d t l in thoi thng minh ang mc cao.
Theo s liu d phng t GFK, vic chuyn dch t in thoi chc nng sang in
thoi thng minh s c tip din trong nm 2016 v nm 2017, c bit l phn khc
in thoi thng minh tm trung v gi r. Khi th trng sn xut in thoi di ng cng c
nhiu nh sn xut tham gia, th ngi tiu dng cng c nhiu s la chn v gia tng nhu cu
mua sm cc thit b ny.
Ngoi ra, chng ti cho rng in thoi thng mnh ch l mt nn tng sng to v pht trin
nhng cng ngh mi, phc v nhu cu ca ngi tiu dng. Nhng xu hng pht trin mi
s to ra s chuyn dch trong chnh nhm in thoi thng minh nh: Mn hnh ln trn
5, cm bin vn tay, cng ngh 4G, in thoi gi r, pht trin ng dng bn th ba...

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

Biu 7: Nhu cu tng trng cng vi tng trng GDP

VT: T ng

VT: USD

140,000

3,000

120,000

2,500

100,000

2,000

80,000
1,500
60,000
1,000

40,000

500

20,000
-

2013A

2014A

2015A

2016E
TEL

2017E

2018E

2019E

2020E

GDP per capita

Ngun: GFK, WorldBank v MBS

Ngoi ra, nhu cu s dng in thoi di ng s gia tng cng vi s gia tng trong mc thu
nhp bnh qun u ngi ti Vit Nam. T l ngi dn c mc thu nhp trung bnh ang tng
ln, dn n hnh vi ngi tiu dng gia tng nhiu hn trong t l nhu cu s dng hng ha
ngoi thit yu. Trong hin ti, theo thng k t GFK, nhu cu tiu th in thoi di ng bnh
qun u ngi t 31,6 USD/nm, trong khi s liu thng k ca cc quc gia trong khu vc
nh Trung Quc v Malaysia ln lt t 83,5 USD v 71,5 USD.
Biu 8: Nhu cu tiu th hng ha cng ngh in t bnh qun u ngi

VT: USD
350
300
250
200
150
100

50
0
Vietnam

China

Malaysia

Tel per Capita

Thailand

Singapore

Taiwan

CE and App per Capita

Ngun: GFK v MBS

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

Chui gi tr ngnh phn phi bn l cng ngh in t

Biu 9: Chui gi tr ngnh
Sn xut

Phn phi

Bn l

Ngun: MBS
Th trng bn l cng ngh in t tp trung dn vo tay nhng chui bn l ln
Th trng bn l cc mt hng cng ngh trong qu kh vn d kh manh mn v phn tn vi
tng s hn 7.000 ca hng bn l hng ha cng ngh trn c nc. Song, cng vi tc pht
trin cao trong mc tiu th in thoi di ng v cc mt hng in my, cc nh bn l cng
nhanh chng gia tng ph chui ca hng nhm gia tng kh nng tip cn ngi tiu dng.
V vy, s lng cc ca hng kinh doanh nh l ngy cng gim xung, nhng ch cho s pht
trin ca cc ca hng kinh doanh theo chui vi nhiu dng sn phm, dch v ng nht.
Biu 10: Th trng bn l in thoi

Biu 11: Th trng bn l in my

MOBILE DEVICES MARKET SHARE

MOBILE DEVICES MARKET SHARE

12.0%
30.0%
40.0%

Thegioididong

8.0%

FPT Shop
VienthongA
11.9%
10.1%

DienmayXANH
Cholon

52.5%

Chui khc
Ca hng nh l

9.9%

7.5%

Nguyn Kim

Chui khc
20.0%

Ca hng nh l

Ngun: MBS

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

Biu 12: Tng quy h thng bn l hng ha cng ngh in t

VT: Ca hng

VT: Nghn mt vung

8,000

1,400

7,000

1,200

6,000

1,000

5,000
4,000
3,000

800

Tng s ca hng

600

Tng din tch sn

2,000

400

1,000

200

0
2012

2013

2014

2015

Ngun: MBS
Trong th trng bn l in thoi di ng, chui Thegioididong.com dn u vi doanh thu
nm 2015 t 20.758 t ng (+54,3% YoY), chim 30% th phn bn l in thoi di ng. H
thng FPT Shop cng k c mc doanh thu t 7.842 t ng (+50,1% YoY), chim 11,9% th
phn bn l. Cc chui bn l ln ny trong nhng nm qua u gia tng m rng chui ca hng
trong th trng laptop v in thoi di ng.
Vo cui thng 6 nm 2016, doanh thu ca hai chui Thegioididong.com v FPT Shop ln lt
t 14.063 t ng (+55%YoY) v 4.736 t ng (+32%YoY). n cui nm 2016, chng ti k
vng th trng bn l in thoi di ng s gim mc phn mnh. Th phn ca cc ca hng
nh l (mom and pop) s gim xung mc 30% do s bnh trng ca cc chui bn l.
Biu 13: Quy m cc chui bn l in thoi
VT: Ca hng

VT: Nghn mt vung

600

70

500

60
50

400

40
300
30
200

20

100

Thegioididong Outlets
FPT Shop Outlets
Viettel Outlets
Vien Thong A Outlets
Thegioididong Square
FPT Shop Square
Viettel Store Square
Vien Thong A Square

10

0
2012

2013

2014

2015

Ngun: MBS
Thegioididong.com v FPT Shop l hai chui c hiu qu kinh doanh cao. Bnh qun din
tch sn mi ca hng kinh doanh ca hai chui ny kh nh dao ng trong khong 100 150
mt vung. Doanh thu trung bnh trn din tch sn kh cao v tng ng nhau, bnh qun t
31,8 triu ng/m2/thng. Chui ca hng Vien Thong A c mc hiu qu thp hn khi doanh
thu bnh qun ch t 13,1 triu ng/m2/thng, cao hn so vi mc trung bnh ca ngnh l 10
triu ng/m2/thng.

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

Biu 14: Hiu qu khai thc mt bng cc chui bn l in thoi

VT: VND

35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000

Thegioididong per sq

20,000,000

FPT Shop per sq

15,000,000

Vien Thong A per sq

Revenue per sq

10,000,000
5,000,000
2012

2013

2014

2015

Ngun: MBS
Trong mng bn l in my, th trng hin vn cn phn tn cao vi hn 50% th phn nm
trong tay cc ca hng nh l mom and pop. Trong , hai chui bn l ln nht l Nguyn Kim
v Dienmayxanh.com ln lt chim th phn 12% v 8%. Trong , chui Dienmayxanh.com gia
nhp th trng t nm 2010 nhanh chng lm gim tnh phn tn ca th trng. n cui
nm 2016, chng ti cho rng chui Dienmayxanh.com s nhanh chng gia tng th phn ln mc
15% bng vic ly th phn t cc ca hng nh l. Th phn ca cc ca hng nh l s gim
xung mc khong 45% vo cui nm 2016 v gim dn trong tng lai.
Biu 15: Quy m cc chui bn l in my
VT: Ca hng

VT: Nghn mt vung

35

60

30

50

25

40

20
30
15

20

10

Dienmayxanh Outlets
Nguyen Kim Outlets
Pico Outlets
Tran Anh Outlets
Dienmayxanh Sq
Nguyen Kim Sq
Pico Sq
Tran Anh Sq

10

5
0

0
2012

2013

2014

2015

Ngun: MBS
Trong cc chui ca hng in my, Trn Anh ng u v hiu qu khai thc din tch sn vi
doanh thu trung bnh 20,3 triu ng/m2/thng. Nguyn Kim c mc hiu qu khai thc ci thin
u n qua cc nm v t 18,3 triu ng/m2/thng. Tuy nhin, tc tng doanh thu trung
bnh st gim so vi cc nm trc. Chui Dienmayxanh.com gia nhp sau vo th trng bn l
in my theo m hnh chui siu th nh. Mc hiu qu khai thc ca Dienmayxanh.com cn
mc thp khong 12 triu ng/m2/thng.

10

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

Biu 16: Hiu qu khai thc mt bng cc chui bn l in my

VT: VND

35,000,000

30,000,000
25,000,000

Dienmayxanh per sq

20,000,000

Nguyen Kim per sq

Pico per sq

15,000,000

Tran Anh per sq

10,000,000

Revenue per sq

5,000,000
2012

2013

2014

2015

Ngun: MBS
Trong tng lai, xu hng pht trin ngnh vn s tip tc tp trung vo cc nh bn l ln vi
h thng ca hng c ph cao v cht lng dch v tt. Khi th trng tiu th mt hng in
t bc vo ngng bo ha tng trng chm, cc chui bn l ln vn cn tim nng tng
trng t vic m rng th phn, c bit trong th trng in my ang phn tn. Ngoi ra,
mc tiu dng cho cc mt hng in t s chuyn dch mt phn t knh bn l truyn thng
sang knh mua bn online.
Trong hin ti, bn l trc tuyn ti Vit Nam ang trong giai on u pht trin
chim 2% - 3% trong tng mc doanh thu bn l. Phn ln ngi tiu dng ang s dng
knh online tham kho mc gi v tnh nng sn phm sau n cc im bn l kim
tra v mua hng. Chnh v vy, cc ca hng bn l theo chui cng c xu hng gim din tch
trng by sn phm. Th phn bn l trc tuyn k vng s tip tc tng trng cng vi cc
thng hiu Lazada, Tiki, Thegioididong.com. So snh vi cc quc gia trong khu vc, Trung Quc
ang ng u v th trng bn l trc tuyn chim th phn 12,9% th phn bn l trong nc,
Hn Quc chim 10%, Thi Lan v n chim tng ng 1%.
Cc nh phn phi bn s ang mt dn th trng
Th trng phn phi bn s mt hng cng ngh in t hin ti tp trung vo nhng doanh
nghip ln nh PET, FPT Trading v Digiworld.
Biu 17: Cc hng in thoi c phn phi
Petresetco
PSD

Smartcom

PHTD

FPT Trading

Digiworld

Samsung

Sony

Blackberry

Apple

Nokia

Lenovo

Blackberry

Gionee

Asus

Wiko

Archos

HTC

LG

Acer

Obi

Vivo

Gionee

Meizu

Nokia

Intex

Xiaomi

Freetel

Pantech

Ngun: MBS

11

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

Trong mng thit b di ng v cng ngh thng tin (CNTT), FPT Trading l nh phn phi
ln nht vi doanh thu nm 2015 t 17.371 t ng. FPT Trading l nh phn phi cho cc
thng hiu ln nh Apple, Asus, DELL, HP... Tuy nhin, t nm 2015, v th ca FPT Trading
gim dn khi Thegioididong.com v FPT Shop dn nhp hng trc tip t Apple. iu ny lm
cho doanh thu ca FPT Trading khng c s tng trng d c gng phn phi thm nhiu
thng hiu in thoi mi.
Petrosetco (PET) l nh phn phi ln th hai trong ngnh, s hu 3 cng ty con hot
ng trong ngnh phn phi thit b di ng v CNTT. Nhng cng ty ny ln lt phn phi cho
hu ht cc hng cng ngh ln nh: Samsung, Lenovo, Sony,... Nm 2015, doanh thu phn phi
ca PET t 7.089 t ng, trong doanh thu t in thoi di ng chim 64%. Tng t nh
FPT Trading, doanh thu mng phn phi ca PET cng chu s st gim khi Samsung bt u bn
hng trc tip cho Thegioididong.com.
Digiworld l cng ty tham gia sau vo th trng phn phi in thoi di ng v bt
u bng s hp tc vi thng hiu Nokia/Microsoft. Tuy nhin t nm 2015, doanh thu v li
nhun ca Digiworld ln lt b st gim mnh m 14% v 19% khi Microsoft thay i chin lc
tp trung vo dch v phn mm. Ngoi ra, t u nm 2015, Digiword bt u phn phi c
quyn cho cc thng hiu in thoi tm trung v gi r nh Wiko, Obi, Intex. y l bc i
mi trong lnh vc phn phi in thoi di ng, Digiworld ngoi vai tr l nh phn phi cn
cung cp cc dch v logistics v marketing cho cc thng hiu in thoi mi. Tuy nhin, vic
pht trin theo chin lc mi i hi DGW phi n lc kh nhiu trong vic pht trin tng
marketing v chi tiu nhiu cho i ng nhn s mi. ng thi, vic phn phi cc dng in
thoi mi cha c thng hiu phi mt nhiu thi gian to ra c nhn thc trong ngi
tiu dng.
Biu 18: Doanh thu ca cc cng ty phn phi

VT: T ng
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2010

2011

2012
PET

FPT Trading

2013

2014

2015

DGW

Ngun: PET, FPT & DGW

Ni tm li, th trng dnh cho cc nh phn phi ang kh khn hn khi cc nh bn l bnh
trng v c xu hng nhp hng trc tip t nh sn xut nh Apple, Samsung. Trong khi ,
s lng cc ca hng nh l nhp hng t cc nh phn phi ngy cng teo nh khi b cc chui
bn l ln t. ng thi, cc hng sn xut c xu hng m ca hng trc tip hoc t xy dng
mt h thng phn phi v marketing v d nh OPPO. Trong giai on t 2010 n nay, hu
nh doanh thu ca cc cng ty phn phi u dao ng ti ch v khng c s tng trng r
rng.
Chin lc tn ti trong xu hng tiu cc ca mng phn phi c th thy thng qua hnh ng
ca Digiworld i vi cc hng in thoi Wiko, Obi, Intex. Cng ty tp trung ginh quyn phn
phi c quyn cho cc hng in thoi thng minh mi ti Vit Nam, ng thi h tr dch v
logistics v marketing. Chin lc ny l cha kha gi vng c v th ca mt doanh nghip
phn phi mt hng cng ngh in t.

12

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

RI RO I VI NGNH
Ri ro thay i cu trc ngnh
Mt trong nhng xu hng pht trin trong mng cng ngh trn th gii, cc nh sn xut ang
c gng gim bt mc chit khu, cng nh s lng cc nh phn phi trung gian. Th nht,
cc nh sn xut mun tit kim li phn hoa hng cho cc i l trung gian khi bin li nhun
gp trong sn phm in thoi thng minh ang gim dn. Th hai, sau vn cht lng sn
phm, cc nh sn xut tin n mang li gi tr t dch v trc tip hn to ra s trung thnh
i vi thng hiu.
Ri ro ny s hin hu nhiu hn i vi cc nh phn phi, bn s khi v th ang c xu hng
b suy gim. Ri ro cng gia tng i vi cc dng sn phm c thng hiu c nhn thc rng.
Cc cng ty sn xut ln nh Apple, Samsung, Dell, HP c v th ln ct gim chit khu cho
cc cng ty phn phi, bn s. ng thi, khi th trng bn l khng cn phn tn, mc tp
trung cao, chi ph phn phi vo mt chui ca hng c th phn ln s tit kim hn so vi vic
bn hng cho tng ca hng nh l. V vy, cc nh sn xut ln c ng lc chuyn dch bn
hng trc tip cho cc chui bn l c ph ln.
Tuy nhin, trong mng bn l hin ti, cc nh sn xut gp hn ch trong vic m ra hng lot
ca hng bn l thit b cng ngh trn ton cu hay mt th trng nht nh. Trong khi c th
ngnh bn l cn c ph cao tip cn ngi tiu dng, ng thi c cht lng dch v n
nh, h thng nhn vin bn hng v qun tr hng tn kho.
Ri ro hng tn kho
i vi doanh nghip hot ng trong lnh vc bn l, qun l hng tn kho l vn rt quan
trng. Hn na, trong ngnh hng cng ngh, cc nh sn xut thit b cng ngh u chy ua
ci tin v ra mt sn phm mi hng nm. V vy, sn phm cng ngh nhanh chng b li thi
v mc gim gi ca hng tn kho din ra rt nhanh. V d, trung bnh i vi cc sn phm
Apple, tc gim gi trn tng dng in thoi bnh qun l 10% - 15%/nm. i vi cc sn
phm phn khc cao cp ca Samsung c tc gim gi bnh qun l 30%/nm. Cc dng sn
phm tivi bnh qun c mc gim gi khong 20% - 30% ty vo xut x. Do , cc cng ty
hot ng kinh doanh phn phi v bn l lun lun chu ri ro t vic gim gi hng tn kho.
Ri ro thay i cng ngh
Ngnh cng ngh ang pht trin vi tc rt nhanh lm thay i nhiu gc cnh trong x hi.
Trong tng lai, nhng cng ngh mi ra i c th lm thay i cch tip cn ca ngi tiu
dng i vi sn phm. T , ngi tiu dng khng cn n a im mua hng v mi tri
nghim thc t c th mang n t mn hnh trc mt. Do , nhng s thay i ny c th
tc ng tiu cc n s tn ti ca cc chui ca hng hin hu.
Ri ro bin ng t gi
Trong hin ti, cc sn phm cng ngh hon ton c nhp khu v Vit Nam t cc nh sn
xut nc ngoi, hoc nhp t nhng khu ch xut ti Vit Nam. Vic mua hng phn ln u s
dng ng USD, v vy cc cng ty phn phi mt hng cng ngh u gnh chu ri ro bin ng
t gi.

13

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

CTCP u t Th gii Di ng (HSX: MWG)

Bo co cp nht 12/09/2016
Khuyn ngh

MUA

Gi mc tiu (VND)

192.000

Tim nng tng gi

37,14%

C tc (VND)

0 VND

Li sut c tc

0%

Tm nhn - linh hot - tp trung - h thng

pht trin dn u
Hin ti, MWG l cng ty t v th dn u trong lnh vc bn l hng cng ngh, in
t vi hai chui bn l ln Thegioididong.com v Dienmayxanh.com.
Chui Thegioididong.com bt u hnh thnh t nm 2004 v tr thnh chui bn l
in thoi di ng c th phn ln nht 35% trong hin ti. Doanh thu nm 2016 c
tnh t 31.773 t ng.
Chui Dienmayxanh.com ra i vo nm 2010, mun hn cc chui bn l khc trong
th trng bn l in my. Tuy nhin, d on n cui nm 2016, Dienmayxanh.com
s dn u th trng vi th phn 15%.
MWG bt u th nghim pht trin m hnh bn l Bachhoaxanh.com trong nm 2015
v bc u chun b pht trin chui Thegioididong.com nc ngoi trong nm 2017.
Quan im khuyn ngh: MUA

Thng tin c phiu 12/09/2016

Gi hin ti (VND)

140.000

S lng CP nim yt

146.888.974

S lng CP lu hnh

146.597.856

Vn ha th trng (t VND)
Khong gi 52 tun

20.377
57.900 140.000

KLGDTB 30 ngy

151.865

Ch tiu ti chnh c bn

% s hu nc ngoi

49%

VT: T ng

% gii hn s hu nc ngoi

49%

Doanh thu

S lng c php s hu

Thegioididong.com
Dienmayxanh.com

71.975.597

S lng cn c php mua

Bin ng gi trong 12 thng

1,000,000

800,000

120,000

700,000

100,000

600,000

80,000

500,000
400,000

60,000

300,000

40,000

200,000

20,000

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

25.253

43.614

63.638

76.525

20.758
4.493

31.773
11.842

39.825
23.813

45.606
30.919

1.785

2.583

3.170

7.305

12.173

17.100

20.576

54,2%

55,9%

53,4%

45,9%

18,8

11,3

8,0

6,7

PE

Ngun: BCTC MWG v MBS d phng

LUN IM U T
Chng ti tin hnh nh gi cp nht i vi c phiu MWG ca CTCP u t
Th gii Di ng vi mc gi mc tiu 192.000 ng, cao hn 37,14% so vi
mc gi hin ti, da vo cc lun im nh sau:

Th trng bn l thit b di ng tip tc tng trng, chng ti cho rng in

thoi thng minh ch l mt nn tng sng to v pht trin nhng cng ngh mi,
phc v nhu cu ca ngi tiu dng. Nhng xu hng pht trin mi s to ra s
chuyn dch trong chnh nhm in thoi thng minh.

Thegioididong.com chy ua bnh trng, thc hin c phn vic nm sau.

n ht nm 2016, chui Thegioididong.com s t mc doanh thu 31.773 t ng
(+52,98% YoY), tng ng vi c tnh 38% th phn. Song song, s lng ca hng
thegioididong.com trong nm 2016 c d phng s t mc 1.264 ca hng, c
bit tc s c y rt nhanh vo thi im Q4.2016.

Th phn bn l in my ca cc ca hng nh l mom and pop chim t l

kh cao l c hi Dienmayxanh.com tng trng. n cui nm 2016, chng
ti c tnh th phn ca nhm ny s gim xung cn khong 44%. ng thi, chui
Dienmayxanh.com s vt qua chui Nguyn Kim v dn u vi th phn 15%.

Dienmayxanh.com vn ln dn u, thm nhp su hn bng chui ca

hng Mini. Vic pht trin theo quy m nh hn s lm cho MWG d dng hn trong
vic tm cc mt bng mi, linh hot trong vic gia tng ph, gn hn vi ngi

12/8/2015
1/9/2015
22/09/2015
12/10/2015
30/10/2015
19/11/2015
9/12/2015
29/12/2015
19/01/2016
15/02/2016
4/3/2016
24/03/2016
13/04/2016
6/5/2016
26/05/2016
15/06/2016
5/7/2016
25/07/2016

14

2018F

1.072

100,000

2017F

EPS (VND)

900,000

140,000

2016F

Li nhun sau thu

ROE
160,000

2015

12/09/2016

tiu dng nhng vng ngoi . Trong nm 2016, doanh thu c tnh ca chui
Dienmayxanh.com s t 11.842 t ng (+163,6% YoY).

Li th cnh tranh cao trn th trng bn l thit b in t t s h tr ca

h thng qun l ngun lc ERP, s lng/ ph ca hng ln mang li li th thng
hiu, qun l hng tn kho, v chin thut mua hng. i ng nhn s giu kinh
nghim trong vic qun l ngnh hng v m mi ca hng.

Th nghim m hnh bn l Bachhoaxanh vi khong 20 ca hng u tin k

vng s hon thnh trong nm 2016. Nu thnh cng, MWG s m rng s lng ca
hng vi quy m ln nhm khai thc th trng bn l truyn thng, hin ang chim
80% th phn. Doanh thu bnh qun tng ca hng tng ln mnh m qua tng
thng v t hn 1 t ng trong thng 7.

NH GI

Bng phng php nh gi chit khu dng tin t do FCF v nh gi so snh P/E, chng
ti xc nh mc gi mc tiu trong 12 thng ti cho c phiu MWG l 192.000 VND/cp.
Vi mc EPS d phng trong nm 2017 l 17.100 VND, mc gi mc tiu tng ng vi
mc P/E l 11,2 ln, so vi mc trung bnh ngnh l 11,6 ln. Chng ti khuyn ngh
MUA i vi c phiu MWG trong di hn vi tim nng tng gi 37,14% so vi
mc gi hin ti.

Biu 19: Dng tin t do FCFF

FCFF
EBIT
less: tax
add: depreciation
less: capex
(increase) / decreace in NWC
Unlevered free cash flow
PV of FCF
Cumulative sum PV of FCF
Terminal cashflow
PV of terminal value
WACC
Discounted Period

Biu 20: Phng php nh gi FCFF

2015
1.322
(310)
197
(587)
(2.061)
(1.438)
-

2016
2.250
(446)
513
(1.229)
(801)
286
255
255
282
3.240
12,9%
0,39

2017
3.262
(646)
700
(823)
(1.680)
814
645
900
807
7.476
14,2%
1,39

2018
3.967
(793)
772
(340)
(1.194)
2.413
1.678
2.578
2.412
15.662
15,2%
2,39

2019
4.631
(938)
614
(110)
(747)
3.449
2.082
4.660
3.461
16.784
15,2%
3,39

2020
5.319
(1.083)
463
(55)
(587)
4.057
2.126
6.786
4.076
17.161
15,2%
4,39

Cumlative PV of FCF
Pv of Terminal value
Terminal value of total PV FCF
Total PV of FCF
Cash & ST Investments
Short and long-term debt
Enterprise value (EV)
Total equity value
Outstanding shares (million)
Target Price 12 Months

FCFF
6.786
17.161
66,8%
25.673
344
2.053
26.017
23.964
146.670.301
190.100 VND

Ngun: MBS c tnh

Biu 21: So snh cc cng ty trong ngnh bn l in t

M CK

Tn cng ty

Vn ha
Triu ng

ROE

Doanh thu
Triu ng

Discounted
P/E

MWG VN Equity
071840 KS Equity
BIG TB Equity
2450 TT Equity
COM7 TB Equity
TELE IJ Equity
6188 HK Equity
6281 TT Equity
2430 TT Equity
6154 TT Equity
Trung bnh
Trung v

MOBILE WORLD INVESTMENT CORP

LOTTE HIMART CO LTD
BIG CAMERA CORP PCL
SENAO INTERNATIONAL CO LTD
COM7 PCL
TIPHONE MOBILE INDONESIA TBK
BEIJING DIGITAL TELECOM CO-H
E-LIFE MALL CORPORATION
TSANN KUEN ENTERPRISE CO LTD
SUNFAR COMPUTER CO LTD

20.083.906
22.177.596
10.577.573
9.459.057
8.527.477
8.412.673
4.618.206
4.216.707
3.251.096
977.701

57,9%
5,8%
75,2%
16,3%
23,5%
14,3%
13,9%
20,3%
6,8%
6,8%

34.042.579
75.238.349
3.125.023
23.094.671
9.580.529
42.392.217
55.194.033
11.844.474
15.855.507
3.415.000

13,5
8,9
15,8
12,9
14,3
6,6
5,0
10,8
13,6
14,2
11,6
12,9

Ngun: Bloomberg
15

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

THEGIOIDIDONG.COM: y mnh thc hin cng vic nm 2017

MWG tip tc y mnh m rng chui Thegioididong.com gia tng th phn v v th
trong ngnh
MWG vn tip tc thc hin chin lc ginh ly th phn t nhng ca hng nh l truyn thng.
u nm 2016, th phn ca Thegioididong.com chim 30% trong khi cc ca hng nh l mom
and pop chim 40% th phn. Chng ti k vng n cui nm 2016, th phn ca cc ca hng
nh l s gim xung cn 30% - 35%, do s bnh trng ca cc chui bn l.
Biu 22: Th phn bn l thit b di ng

TH PHN THIT B DI NG
30.0%
40.0%

11.9%
10.1%
MWG

FPT Shop

9.9%

VienthongA

Viettel Store, Mai Nguyen,

Ca hng nh l

Ngun: GFK v MBS tng hp

Trong 6 thng u nm 2016, h thng thegioididong.com t mc doanh thu 14.063 t ng
(+54,71% YoY), ng thi s lng ca hng lc ny t 827 ca hng so vi mc 560 hi u
nm. Theo k hoch kinh doanh 2016, MWG hon thnh cng vic m rng chui trong nm,
v MWG s tip tc y mnh thc hin phn cng vic ca nm 2017. D nh ny ca MWG
nhm mc ch tp trung sc trong nm 2017 pht trin chui Mini Dienmayxanh.com v th
nghim chui Bachhoaxanh.com giai on 2.
S lng m rng cho cc ca hng thegioididong.com trong tng lai gn s tp trung nhiu
hn cho cc khu vc vng tnh, ni m mc bao ph cha cao. i vi cc chui ti vng tnh,
s lng dng hng s gim xung v tp trung nhiu hn vo phn khc in thoi tm trung.
Trong hin ti, doanh thu trung bnh cho tng ca hng mi ti vng tnh dao ng quanh mc
1,5 t ng/thng.
Biu 23: D phng tng trng chui Thegioididong.com
60,000

45%
40%

50,000

35%
30%

40,000

25%
20%

30,000
20,000

15%
10%

10,000

5%
0%

2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue

Market Share

2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0

45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Stores

Market Share

Ngun: MBS c tnh

16

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

n ht nm 2016, chng ti c tnh rng chui Thegioididong.com s t mc doanh thu 31.773

t ng (+52,98% YoY), tng ng vi c tnh 38% th phn. Song song, s lng ca hng
thegioididong.com trong nm 2016 c d phng s t mc 1.264 ca hng, c bit tc
s c y rt nhanh vo thi im Q4.2016. Trong di hn, th trng bn l in thoi di ng
k vng s tip tc tng trng cao n nm 2018 v th phn ca MWG s t 42%.
DIENMAYXANH.COM: H thng ca hng Mini cng thm nhp su vo th trng
mom and pop
T nm 2015, chui Dienmayxanh tr thnh ng lc tng trng mnh mi cho MWG. Trong
6 thng u nm 2016, doanh thu chui Dienmayxanh.com t 5.587 t ng (+216% YoY)
vi s lng ca hng t 111 ca hng.
T gia nm 2016, MWG bt u trin khai chui Mini Dienmayxanh.com vi din tch sn t 500
800 m2. Vi tng mi ny, MWG s cng khuch trng chui ca hng in my, thm
nhp sau vo th trng mom and pop, c bit l vng tnh. ph hp vi thit k nh v
linh ng, MWG cng c s iu chnh li v s lng cc dng hng v loi b cc dng sn
phm cng knh gi tr cao. Tuy nhin, s lng dng hng c th thay i trong tng lai ty
thuc vo nhu cu ca ngi tiu dng trong tng khu vc.
Hn na, vic pht trin theo quy m nh hn s lm cho MWG d dng hn trong vic tm cc
mt bng mi. Do , s lng ca hng m mi trong tng lai s gia tng nhanh hn so vi
vic m cc siu th in my ln trc y. V vy, h thng Dienmayxanh.com s linh hot trong
vic gia tng ph, gn hn vi ngi tiu dng. Chng ti k vng rng, chi ph m nhng ca
hng mini mi s gim xung 50% so vi trc y. Song, doanh thu trung bnh tng ca hng
cng s st gim xung mc 55% - 60%.
Th trng bn l in my vn cn phn tn, Dienmayxanh.com vn ln dn u
Thc t, th trng bn l in my ti Vit Nam vn ang phn tn hn nhiu so vi th trng
bn l thit b di ng v ch yu phn ln th phn vn l cc ca hng nh l truyn thng. Do
mc phn tn ang kh cao nn s cnh tranh trong ngnh cng din ra gay gt. Theo k
vng ca chng ti, ng lc tng trng th phn ca MWG trong mng bn l in my l gim
mc phn mnh trong ngnh bng vic khai thc th phn trong tay cc ca hng bn l truyn
thng.
Vo cui nm 2015, th phn ca cc ca hng nh l mom and pop chim t l kh cao trn
52,5%. Tuy nhin, n cui nm 2016, chng ti c tnh th phn ca nhm ny s gim xung
cn khong 44%. ng thi, chui Dienmayxanh.com s vt qua chui Nguyn Kim v dn u
vi th phn 15%.
Biu 24: Th phn bn l in my

TH PHN BN L IN MY
12%
8%
7.50%

52.50%
20%

Nguyn Kim

17

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

Dienmayxanh

Cholon

Trn Anh, Pico, Thin Ha,

Ca hng truyn thng

12/09/2016

Ngun: GFK v MBS tng hp

Trong nm 2016, chng ti c tnh doanh thu ca chui Dienmayxanh.com s t 11.842 t
ng (+163,6% YoY), tng ng vi th phn c tnh 15% so vi mc 8% vo nm 2015. S
lng ca hng Dienmayxanh.com c tnh t 184 ca hng, trong gm 134 ca hng
Dienmayxanh.com v 50 ca hng Mini Dienmayxanh.com. Trong di hn, chng ti cho rng th
phn ca chui Dienmayxanh.com s t mc 32% vo nm 2020.
Biu 25: D phng tng trng chui DienmayXANH.com
40,000

35.0%

35,000

30.0%

30,000

25.0%

25,000

20.0%

20,000
15.0%

15,000

10.0%

10,000

5.0%

5,000
-

0.0%
2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Revenue

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Market Share

Total Stores

Market Share

Ngun: MBS c tnh

Gia tng v th trong ngnh, ci thin bin li nhun gp
T nm 2015, MWG bt u nhp hng trc tip t cc nh sn xut nh Apple v Samsung,
thay v phi nhp thng qua cc nh phn phi trung gian. Trong nm 2016, bin li nhun gp
c tnh ca hai chui thegioididong.com v dienmayxanh.com k vng ln lt t 16,5% v
15,5%. Tng bin li nhun gp c tnh t 16,2% so vi mc 15,6% trong nm 2015.
BACHHOAXANH.COM: Th nghim giai on 1 bc u thnh cng
Giai on 1

Mc nhn din
Mt ca hng
Doanh thu mt
hng
M hnh phc v
Mc hi lng
...
16 ca hng

Giai on 2

Giai on 3

Pht trin cm BHX

Kh nng phn phi
Qun l tn kho
Kh nng m rng
...

M rng

200 250 ca hng

>1000 ca hng

Vic pht trin m hnh Bachhoaxanh.com s tri qua ba giai on theo thng tin t pha doanh
nghip. n thi im hin ti, MWG gn nh thnh cng trong giai on 1, mc doanh thu
trung bnh trn tng ca hng c s tng trng u n qua tng thng. n thng 7, doanh
thu trung bnh tng ca hng t 1,25 t ng so vi mc doanh thu trung bnh 180 triu ng
vo thng 2. Trong hin ti, chi ph u t mi cho mi ca hng Bachhoaxanh khong 1.300 t
ng.
Trong nm 2016, MWG s hon thnh vic th nghim giai on 1 v nm 2017 MWG s tip tc
giai on 2 vi s lng ca hng c tnh trong khong 200 250 ca hng. Trong giai on 1,
bin li nhun gp ca chui Bachhoaxanh.com ch khong 5%. Tuy nhin, chng ti k vng
bin li nhun s ci thin ln mc 8 10% khi th nghim m hnh cm ca hng. Sau khi bc
18

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

vo giai on m rng, MWG s c th nhp hng trc tip t cc nh cung cp dn n bin li

nhun gp c th ci thin ln mc 15% trong di hn.
Th trng bn l Vit Nam hin ti, knh bn l truyn thng ang chim 83% th phn v c
phn chia nh sau: ca hng ln chim 30% th phn, tp ha nh chim 30%, ch 11% v ca
hng chuyn doanh 7%, cc knh khc l 5%. Knh hin i chim 17% th phn cn li, trong
, siu th chim 10%, i siu th 4%, Minimart 2%, Metro v Online 1%.
Biu 26: Th trng bn l Vit Nam

TH TRNG BN L
4% 2% 1%

Ca hng ln

10%

30%

7%

Tp ha nh
Ch
Ca hng chuyn doanh

Siu th
16%

i siu th
Minimart
30%

Metro v Online

Ngun: GFK v MBS tng hp

TNH HNH TI CHNH V D PHNG
Biu 27: Kt qu hot ng kinh doanh v d phng 2016
VT: T VND
50,000
45,000
40,000
Doanh thu thun 35,000
30,000
Li nhun gp
25,000
Li rng
20,000
Bin li nhun gp 15,000
10,000
Bin li rng
5,000
0

20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%

Ngun: BCTC MWG

Doanh thu v li nhun ca MWG lin tc tng trng mnh t nm 2009 n nay. Tc tng
trng bnh qun (CAGR) ca doanh thu v li nhun sau thu ln lt t
53,11%/nm v 67,77%/nm. ng lc tng trng trong giai on t nm 2011 2014
ch yu n t h thng thegioididong.com hng li t tng trng ngnh v gia tng th phn.
T nm 2015, mng in my bt u c ng gp ng k vo tng trng tng doanh thu v
chim t l 18%. Chng ti c tnh n cui nm 2016, doanh thu t mng in my s chim
27,1% tng doanh thu ca MWG.

19

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

Biu 28: D phng kt qu kinh doanh

2015A

2016E

2017E

2018E

2019E

2020E

25.253

43.614

63.638

76.525

83.506

90.018

73%

46%

20%

9%

8%

Li nhun gp

7.078

10.262

12.317

13.448

14.499

Chi ph bn hng

4.143

6.046

7.270

7.933

8.552

685

955

1.080

884

628

2.250

3.262

3.967

4.631

5.319

80

80

80

80

80

112

127

98

32

Doanh thu thun

% Tng trng

Chi ph QLDN
Li nhun HKD
Doanh thu ti chnh
Chi ph ti chnh
Li nhun trc thu

1.386

2.231

3.229

3.963

4.692

5.413

Li nhun sau thu

1.072

1.785

2.583

3.170

3.754

4.330

67%

45%

23%

18%

15%

12.173

17.100

20.576

24.123

27.553

Tng trng
EPS

7.305

Ngun: MBS c tnh

Trong 6 thng u nm, doanh thu ca MWG tng trng mnh t mc 19.650 t ng
(+80,94% YoY). ng thi, li nhun sau thu tng trng 62% so vi cng k v t 834,4 t
ng. c tnh c nm 2016, doanh thu v li nhun ca MWG d tnh s ln lt t 43.614 t
ng (+72,71% YoY) v 1.754 t ng (+63,6% YoY), tng ng vi mc EPS forward 2016 l
12.200 VND.
Biu 29: Hiu qu khai thc ti sn

Biu 30: Phn tch Dupont

80.00
60.00

7.00

120.0%

6.00

100.0%

5.00

80.0%

4.00

40.00

60.0%

3.00
20.00

40.0%

2.00

20.0%

1.00
2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E
Days Inventory Outstanding
Days Payable Outstanding
Cash conversion cycle (days)

0.0%
2010A

Hiu qu khai thc ti sn

2011A

Asset Turnover

2012A

2013A

Leverage

2014A

2015A

Net Margin

2016E
ROE Dupont

Ngun: MWG

S ngy hng tn kho ca MWG c qun l n nh trong khong 45 55 ngy, tuy

nhin cui nm 2015, s ngy hng tn kho tng mnh ln mc 62 ngy. Vic tng t bin ny
ch yu t hng tn kho thit b di ng gia tng chun b cho thi im u nm 2016. Nu
dng doanh thu trong 1 thng u nm ca MWG tnh s ngy hng tn kho, chng ti vn
nhn c kt qu 51 ngy, tng ng vi thi k trc. Ti thi im cui thng 6/2016, hng
tn kho c s tng nh so vi u nm, s ngy hng tn kho gim xung cn 56 ngy.

20

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

M HNH LI NHUN V NH GI
Cc gi nh trong m hnh li nhun:
nh gi
T3.2016

Cp nht
T8.2016

S ca hng 2016

734

1.264

Doanh thu ca hng mi

3 t ng/thng

1,5 t
ng/thng

Gi nh

Din gii

Thegioididong.com

SSSG

8%

13%

S ca hng 2016

134

184

Doanh thu ca hng mi

10 t ng/thng

7 t ng/thng

SSSG

20%

20%

Gim quy m tng

ca hng so vi trc
y gia tng
ph, c bit l th
trng vng tnh.
S lng ca hng
m mi cui nm
2015 chim t l cao,
to ra d a cao
trong nm 2016.

Dienmayxanh.com

Tng u t CAPEX

612 t ng

1.220 t ng

Vn lun chuyn

321 t ng

801 t ng

Trin khai m hnh

Mini
Dienmayxanh
cho nn gia tng kh
nng tm mt bng
m ca hng mi.
Khng thay i
S lng ca hng
m mi nhanh hn
d phng u nm.
ng thi, vic trin
khai cc m hnh ca
hng nh lm gia
tng kh nng m
ca hng mi

Thegioididong.com

Trong nm 2016, chng ti k vng th phn ca MWG t mc 38% v sau tng dn ln

mc 42% trong nm 2020. S lng ca hng Thegioididong.com vo cui nm 2020 l 1764
ca hng.
Do s lng ca hng mi trong nm 2015 tng nhanh nn cc ca hng mi hot ng di
1 nm chim ng k. V vy, vi d a ti cc ca hng hin hu cn cao, nn chng ti gi
nh mc tng trng SSSG trong nm 2016 t mc 13%.

Dienmayxanh.com

21

Nm 2016 c k vng l giai on m rng mnh m ca h thng Dienmanhxanh.com v

chng ti k vng th phn ca h thng s t 15% trong nm. S lng ca hng
Dienmayxanh.com vo cui nm 2020 l 464 ca hng. Trong , h thng c 164 ca hng
Dienmayxanh.com ln v 300 ca hng Mini Dienmayxanh.com.
Do h thng Dienmayxanh.com ang trong thi k u pht trin do mc tng trng
doanh thu trn nhng ca hng hin hu kh cao, chng ti k vng t l SSSG trong nm
t 20%.

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

M hnh nh gi DCF
Biu 31: Dng tin t do FCFF

Biu 32: Phng php nh gi FCFF

FCFF

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

EBIT

1.322

2.250

3.262

3.967

4.631

5.319

Cumlative PV of FCF

6.786

less: tax

(310)

(446)

(646)

(793)

(938)

(1.083)

Pv of Terminal value

17.161

add: depreciation

FCFF

197

513

700

772

614

463

Terminal value of total PV FCF

(587)

(1.229)

(823)

(340)

(110)

(55)

Total PV of FCF

(increase) / decreace in NWC

(2.061)

(801)

(1.680)

(1.194)

(747)

(587)

Cash & ST Investments

Unlevered free cash flow

(1.438)

286

814

2.413

3.449

4.057

Short and long-term debt

PV of FCF

255

645

1.678

2.082

2.126

Enterprise value (EV)

26.017

Cumulative sum PV of FCF

255

900

2.578

4.660

6.786

Total equity value

23.964

Terminal cashflow

282

807

2.412

3.461

4.076

Outstanding shares (million)

PV of terminal value

3.240

7.476

15.662

16.784

17.161

12,9%

14,2%

15,2%

15,2%

15,2%

0,39

1,39

2,39

3,39

4,39

less: capex

WACC
Discounted Period

66,8%
25.673
344
2.053

146.670.301

Target Price 12 Months

190.100 VND

Ngun: MBS c tnh

Bng m hnh nh gi dng tin t do (FCFF), chng ti xc nh mc gi mc tiu trong 12

thng tip theo l 186.000 VND/c phiu. Vi mc EPS d phng trong nm 2017 l 17.100
ng/c phiu. Mc gi mc tiu t m hnh trn tng ng vi mc P/E l 10,9 ln.
Biu 33: Phn tch nhy

Vng quay khon

phi tr

Vng quay hng tn kho

5,20

5,70

6,20

6,70

7,20

19,08

183.652

178.763

183.112

188.867

193.384

18,08

182.941

177.968

184.481

190.085

194.482

17,08

182.094

179.309

185.935

191.403

196.113

16,08

181.074

180.769

187.525

192.829

197.910

15,08

179.831

182.586

189.262

194.494

199.893

Ngun: MBS c tnh

M hnh nh gi so snh
Biu 34: So snh cc cng ty trong ngnh bn l in t

22

M CK

Tn cng ty

Vn ha
Triu ng

ROE

Doanh thu
Triu ng

Discounted
P/E

MWG VN Equity

MOBILE WORLD INVESTMENT CORP

20.083.906

57,9%

34.042.579

13,5

071840 KS Equity

LOTTE HIMART CO LTD

22.177.596

5,8%

75.238.349

8,9

BIG TB Equity

BIG CAMERA CORP PCL

10.577.573

75,2%

3.125.023

15,8

2450 TT Equity

SENAO INTERNATIONAL CO LTD

9.459.057

16,3%

23.094.671

12,9

COM7 TB Equity

COM7 PCL

8.527.477

23,5%

9.580.529

14,3

TELE IJ Equity

TIPHONE MOBILE INDONESIA TBK

8.412.673

14,3%

42.392.217

6,6

6188 HK Equity

BEIJING DIGITAL TELECOM CO-H

4.618.206

13,9%

55.194.033

5,0

6281 TT Equity

E-LIFE MALL CORPORATION

4.216.707

20,3%

11.844.474

10,8

2430 TT Equity

TSANN KUEN ENTERPRISE CO LTD

3.251.096

6,8%

15.855.507

13,6

6154 TT Equity

SUNFAR COMPUTER CO LTD

977.701

6,8%

3.415.000

14,2

Trung bnh

11,6

Trung v

12,9

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

Ngun: Bloomberg
Bng vic so snh nhng cng ty hot ng trong lnh vc bn l in t, mc P/E trung bnh v
trung v sau khi iu chnh theo quc gia ln lt l 11,6 ln v 12,9 ln. ng thi, mc P/E
trung bnh trong 1 nm gn nht ca MWG l 10,7 ln. Vi mc P/E trung bnh ngnh, chng ti
xc nh mc gi mc tiu trong nm 2017 ca MWG theo phng php so snh l 198.000 ng.
Biu 35: Ch s P/E ca MWG trong qu kh
16
14
12

10
8
6
4
2
0

Ngun: Bloomberg
Tng hp nh gi
Phng php

T trng

nh gi

P/E

50%

198.000

FCFF

50%

186.000

Tng hp

192.000

Chng ti s dng c hai phng php nh gi DCF v P/E xc nh mc gi hp l cho c

phiu MWG vi t trng phn b 50%:50%. T hai phng php trn, mc gi hp l cho mc
tiu u t trong 12 thng tip theo vo c phiu MWG l 192.000 VND, cao hn 40,1% so vi
mc gi hin ti. ng thi, mc gi mc tiu ny tng ng vi mc P/E ln lt 15,8 ln trong
nm 2016 v 11,2 ln trong nm 2017.

23

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

CTCP Th gii s (HSX: DGW)

Bo co cp nht 12/09/2016
Khuyn ngh

MUA

Gi mc tiu (VND)

21.000

Tim nng tng gi

31,25%

C tc (VND)

0 VND

Li sut c tc

0%

Quay u tng trng

Thng tin c phiu 11/08/2016

Gi hin ti (VND)

15.600

S lng CP nim yt

30.613.329

S lng CP lu hnh

30.461.860

Vn ha th trng (t VND)
Khong gi 52 tun
KLGDTB 30 ngy
% s hu nc ngoi

475,21
17.750 - 56.372
40.889
16,48%

% gii hn s hu nc
ngoi
S lng c php s hu
S lng cn c php
mua

49%
150.000.531
9.956.278

Bin ng gi trong 12 thng

60

Ch tiu ti chnh c bn
Indicators VND bn
Laptop and tablet
Mobile phone
Office
Doanh thu
EBT
Li rng
EPS (VND)
P/E

180,000

2016E
1.979
1.554
666
4.199
116
93
3.000
5,3x

Lin tc k mi cc hp ng phn phi c quyn cho cc dng in thoi.

Doanh thu tng trng u cng vi s gia tng s lng nhn hng. Dng in thoi
Wiko c bt u phn phi trong Q3/2015, dng Obi bt u t Q4/2015. Trong
nm 2016, cng ty bt u phn phi cho dng Intex vo Q3/2016 v dng Freetel
vo Q4/2016.

Gia tng bin li nhun gp t vic cung cp dch v phn phi km theo
marketing. D phng trong nm 2016, bin li nhun gp ca mng phn phi in
thoi di ng k vng ci thin ln mc 7% so vi mc 6,3% trong nm 2015. Bin li
gp chung k vng ci thin t mc 6,29% ln mc 6,58% trong nm 2016.

Mng kinh doanh thit b vn phng tng trng kh tt trong nm khi cng
ty k thm hp ng phn phi cho Ricoh v Xerox. D phng trong nm 2016, doanh
thu t mng thit b vn phng t 666 t ng, tng trng 50% so vi cng k.

Mc P/E s c iu chnh tch cc sau khi DGW phc hi tng trng. Bt

u t Q3/2016, doanh thu t mng phn phi in thoi s ngng st gim v bt
u tng trng tr li. c tnh c nm 2016, doanh thu v li nhun sau thu k
vng ln lt t 4.199 t ng v 93 t ng (-10,2% YoY). Vi mc EPS d phng
2016 t 3.000 VND, mc gi mc tiu trong nm 2016 l 21.000 VND, tng ng vi
mc P/E 7 ln.

120,000
100,000

30
80,000
60,000
40,000
10
20,000

24

2015
2.227
1.535
445
4.204
133
104
3.539
4,52x

Doanh thu t mng phn phi in thoi di ng k vng tng trng tr li,
t vic phn phi c quyn cho cc dng in thoi tm trung v gi r. Chng ti k
vng cc dng in thoi di ng mi s b p cho s st gim t in thoi Nokia.
D phng doanh thu ca mng phn phi in thoi nm 2016 t 1.554 t ng,
tng ng vi cng k.

140,000

2014
1.997
2.451
429
4.877
168
128
5.107

160,000

20

2013
1.759
977
321
3.057
69
51

Lun im u t

50
40

DGW l mt doanh nghip ln hot ng trong lnh vc phn phi hng ha cng ngh
in t cng vi PET v FPT Trading.
Nm 2015, kt qu hot ng kinh doanh ca DGW chu st gim mnh t dng in
thoi Nokia/Microsoft.
Cng trong nm 2015, DGW bt u phn phi c quyn cho cc dng in thoi tm
trung v gi r. Doanh thu t cc dng in thoi c s tng trng bn vng cng vi
vic m rng dng in thoi.
D phng trong nm 2016, doanh thu t cc dng in thoi mi s b p cho
phn st gim doanh thu Nokia/Microsoft. T , kt qu kinh doanh chung s thot
khi thi k st gim v quay li tng trng.
Khuyn ngh: MUA

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

DGW Distribution Coverage

DGW hin ti l doanh nghip hot ng chnh trong lnh vc phn phi mt hng in
t (ICT) t nm 1997 cho cc ca hng bn l c nc. n cui nm 2015, DGW m rng
mng li i l t mc 6.000, phn phi in thoi di ng, laptop my tnh bng v thit b
vn phng.
Biu 36: C cu doanh thu ca DGW

VT: T ng
6,000
5,000
Laptop

4,000

Mobile

3,000

Office
2,000

Total Revenue

1,000
2013A

2014A

2015A

Source: DGW Annual Report

DGW Distribution Model

Mng kinh doanh laptop v my tnh bng l hot ng kinh doanh truyn thng ca
DGW v tng trng n nh trong nhng nm gn y. Trong nm 2015, doanh thu t
mng ny t 2.226 t ng (+11% YoY) chim t trng 53% trong tng doanh thu. Bin li
nhun gp ca mng kinh doanh ny kh n nh qua cc nm mc 6,2%.
Mng kinh doanh in thoi di ng c DGW khi ng t nm 2013 vi thng
hiu Nokia/Microsoft. Hot ng phn phi in thoi Nokia/Microsoft to ra s tng trng
doanh thu mnh m trong nm 2013 - 2014 v ng gp gn 100% doanh thu phn phi in
thoi di ng v 50% tng doanh thu. T nm 2015, kinh doanh in thoi Nokia/Microsoft bt
u st gim do nh hng t pha nh sn xut, DGW m rng nhn hng sang cc thng
hiu in thoi Wiko, Obi, Intex... Bin li nhun gp ca mng ny c s gia tn n nh trong
khong 4,5% n 6,3% trong giai on 2013 2015.

6,000
agents

Mng kinh doanh thit b vn phng kh n nh, trong nm 2015 t doanh thu 444 t
ng (+3,6% YoY), chim khong 10% doanh thu trong giai on 2013 2015. Tuy nhin, y
l mng c bin li nhun gp kh cao hn cc mng cn li, trung bnh t 9%.
Biu 37: Bin li nhun gp ca tng mng phn phi
10.00%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%

Laptop

5.00%

Mobile

4.00%

Office

3.00%

2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
2013A

2014A

2015A

Th trng bn s thu nh khi h thng bn l bnh trng v doanh thu DGW chu tn
tht t Nokia/Microsoft. Trong hin ti, th trng phn phi bn s in t ang gp kh
25

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

khn khi mt s nh sn xut bn hng trc tip cho mt s chui bn l ln thay v thng qua
cc nh phn phi s. ng thi, trong nm 2015, hot ng kinh doanh ca DGW cng chu tc
ng tiu cc mnh m khi Nokia/Microsoft ngng pht trin in thoi di ng. Doanh thu trong
k ca DGW gim 13,8% so vi nm 2014, t 4.203 t ng, nguyn nhn t st gim doanh
thu phn phi in thoi di ng.
DGW ch ng chuyn sang tp trung phn phi c quyn cc thng hiu in
thoi di ng tm trung v gi r nh Wiko, Obi, Intex. Ngoi vic phn phi thng thng,
DGW cung cp cc gi dch v logistics v marketing nhm h tr gia tng th phn cho cc
thng hiu ny. Theo s liu t GFK, xu hng chuyn dch tiu dng t feature phone sang
smart phone din ra trong nhiu nm. ng thi trong tng lai, xu hng ny s tip tc v
tp trung vo nhng dng in thoi tm trung v gi r.
Biu 38: S chuyn dch tiu dng t feature phone sang smartphone

VT: n v
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000

Smart Phone

10,000,000

Feature Phone

5,000,000
0
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: GFK
Trong nm 2015, doanh thu ca ring cc thng hiu ny t 655 t ng. Trong 6 thng u
nm 2016, vic phn phi cc thng hiu ny mang li doanh thu 587,7 t ng, tng 250% so
vi cng k. Chng ti k vng rng trong di hn s pht trin ca chin lc phn phi c
quyn s nhanh chng to ra ngun doanh thu b p cho mng Nokia/Microsoft trong qu
kh v tng trng tr li trong di hn. ng thi, vic cung cp mt sn phm dch v trn gi
bao gm phn phi, marketing s to ra c bin li nhun gp cao hn so vi vic phn phi
sn phm n thun.
Biu 39: Doanh thu cc dng in thoi ca DGW

VT: T ng
700.0

Intex

600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0

Wiko

Obi
Nokia
Mid range

100.0
-

Source: GFK

26

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

M rng cung cp cho khch hng thng mi in t

Trong tng lai, th trng bn l online ca Vit Nam s tip tc tng trng cng vi nhiu
thng hiu nh: Lazada, Tiki, Sendo, Adayroi,... Trong giai on pht trin u tin, khi quy m
ca cc thng hiu ny cn nh th vic mua hng tn kho t cc nh phn phi v thu ngoi
qun l hng tn kho s mang li hiu qu cao hn. Trong hin ti, DGW ang dn m rng sang
i tng khch hng thng mi in t. Ngoi vai tr l nh phn phi trung gian, DGW cng
cung cp cc dch v trong mng qun l hng tn kho v hon thin n hng.
K hoch kinh doanh 2016
Ch tiu (t ng)

2015

2016KH

%YoY

Doanh thu

4.204

3.951

-6,02%

Li nhun trc thu

133

81,25

-38,91%

Li rng

104

65

-37,50%

3.539 VND

2.100 VND

EPS

Source: DGW
n gia nm 2016, DGW iu chnh gim k hoch nm mnh m t mc doanh thu k
hoch 5.430 t ng xung cn 3.951 t ng. Trong na u nm, th trng bn l laptop c
s st gim, ng thi, cc dng hng nhp khu v chm tr so vi k hoch lm doanh thu v
li nhun qu 2 kh tiu cc.
Nhn nh
DGW l mt trong nhng doanh nghip ln hot ng trong mng phn phi hng cng ngh
in t. Mc d doanh thu v li nhun ca DGW vn ang trong xu hng gim, chng ti tin
tng doanh nghip s c s phc hi pht trin nh vo nhng bc i mi. Trong trung hn,
vic phn phi c quyn cc dng in thoi tm trung v gi r s nhanh chng b p khon
doanh thu mt i t dng Nokia/Microsoft, ng thi to ra ng lc tng trng. Chng ti d
phng s tng trng so vi cng k s bt u th hin t Q3.2016.
D phng hot ng kinh doanh trong nm 2016, doanh thu c d phng s tng ng nm
2015 mc 4.199 t ng, do hai qu cui nm s gia tng mnh doanh thu t dng Intex v
cc mu mi ca Wiko v Obi. Li nhun sau thu d phng t 93 t ng (-10,2% YoY), tng
ng vi mc EPS forward 2016 l 3.000 VND. Vi mc P/E thn trng l 7,0 ln, chng ti xc
nh mc gi mc tiu trong nm 2016 l 21.000 VND, cao hn 40% so vi mc gi hin ti.
Biu 40: Doanh thu v li nhun giai on 2013 - 2015

Biu 41: Phn tch Dupont

6,000

140

50.0%

5.0

5,000

120

40.0%

4.0

30.0%

3.0

20.0%

2.0

40

10.0%

1.0

20

0.0%

100

4,000

80

3,000
60
2,000
1,000
-

2013A

2014A
Net Revenue

2015A
Net Income

0.0
2013A

2014A

2015A

ROE Dupont

Net Margin

Asset Turnover

Leverage

Source: DGW

27

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

12/09/2016

Lin h: Equity Research

Phm Thin Quang
Tel: +84 37262600 Ext 6183
Email: quang.phamthien@mbs.com.vn
Lm Trn Tn S
Tel: +84 8 3920 3388 Ext: 189
Email: si.lamtrantan@mbs.com.vn

H Thng Khuyn Ngh: H thng khuyn ngh ca MBS c xy dng da trn mc chnh lch ca gi mc tiu 12 thng v gi c phiu trn th trng
ti thi im nh gi
Xp hng

Khi (gi mc tiu gi hin ti)/gi hin ti

MUA

>=20%

KH QUAN

T 10% n 20%

PH HP TH TRNG

T -10% n +10%

KM KH QUAN

T -10% n - 20%

BN

<= -20%

CNG TY C PHN CHNG KHON MB (MBS)

c thnh lp t thng 5 nm 2000 bi Ngn hng TMCP Qun i (MB), Cng ty CP Chng khon MB (MBS) l mt trong 5 cng ty chng khon u tin
ti Vit Nam. Sau nhiu nm khng ngng pht trin, MBS tr thnh mt trong nhng cng ty chng khon hng u Vit Nam cung cp cc dch v bao
gm: mi gii, nghin cu v t vn u t, nghip v ngn hng u t v cc nghip v th trng vn.
Mng li chi nhnh v cc phng giao dch ca MBS c m rng v hot ng c hiu qu ti nhiu thnh ph trng im nh H Ni, TP, HCM, Hi
Phng v cc vng chin lc khc, Khch hng ca MBS bao gm cc nh u t c nhn v t chc, cc t chc ti chnh v doanh nghip, L thnh vin
Tp on MB bao gm cc cng ty thnh vin nh: Cng ty CP Qun l Qu u t MB (MB Capital), Cng ty CP a c MB (MB Land), Cng ty Qun l n v
Khai thc ti sn MB (AMC). MBS c ngun lc ln v con ngi, ti chnh v cng ngh c th cung cp cho Khch hng cc sn phm v dch v ph
hp m rt t cc cng ty chng khon khc c th cung cp.
MBS t ho c nhn nhn l:

Cng ty mi gii hng u, ng u th phn mi gii t nm 2009.

Cng ty nghin cu c ting ni trn th trng vi i ng chuyn gia phn tch c kinh nghim, cung cp cc sn phm nghin cu v kinh t v th
trng chng khon; v
Nh cung cp ng tin cy cc dch v v nghip v ngn hng u t cho cc cng ty quy m va.

MBS HI S
Ta nh MB, s 3 Liu Giai, Ba nh, H Ni
T: + 84 4 3726 2600 - Fax: +84 3726 2601
Webiste: www.mbs.com.vn
Tuyn b min trch nhim: Bn quyn nm 2014 thuc v Cng ty CP Chng khon MB (MBS). Nhng thng tin s dng trong bo co c thu thp
t nhng ngun ng tin cy v MBS khng chu trch nhim v tnh chnh xc ca chng. Quan im th hin trong bo co ny l ca (cc) tc gi v
khng nht thit lin h vi quan im chnh thc ca MBS. Khng mt thng tin cng nh kin no c vit ra nhm mc ch qung co hay khuyn
ngh mua/bn bt k chng khon no. Bo co ny khng c php sao chp, ti bn bi bt k c nhn hoc t chc no khi cha c php ca MBS.

28

Ngnh Phn phi Bn l Cng ngh 2016

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