SATIRA, ANDREA A.

ChE-4102

METHODS OF PROJECTION
1. STATISTICAL STRAIGHT LINE
y = a + bx
where:

y= calculated value of the dependent variable, which is the variable

a = y-intercept of the line
b = slope of the line

x = given value of the independent variable, which is the variable in

the dependent variable is to be predicted

a = (y) (x2) (x) (xy)

n x2 (x)2
b = n xy (x) (y)
nx2 (x)2
Historical Supply
YEAR
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

YEAR (x) SALES (y)

1
23
2
20
3
21
4
24
5
23
6
26
7
26
8
25
9
28
10
30
55
246

x^2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
385

xy
23
40
63
96
115
156
182
200
252
300
1427

ble, which is the variable whose value is to be predicted

, which is the variable in terms of which the value of

ariable is to be predicted

45
40

a
b

19.66667
0.89697

YEAR
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

YEAR (x)
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

y'
29.53333
30.4303
31.32727
32.22424
33.12121
34.01818
34.91515
35.81212
36.70909
37.60606
38.50303

35
30
25
SALES

20
15
10
5
0

STATISTICAL STRAIGHT LINE

45
40
35
30
25
SALES

20
15
10
5
0

YEAR

2. ARITHMETIC STRAIGHT LINE

y = a + (y 1)
where:

a = yn - y i
N-1
y 1 = value for the past year
yn = final value or value on the last year
yi = initial value or value on the first year
N = number of years

Historical Supply
YEAR
YEAR (x) SALES (y)
1990
1
23
1991
2
20
1992
3
21
1993
4
24
1994
5
23
1995
6
26
1996
7
26
1997
8
25
1998
9
28
1999
10
30
55
246

0.777778

YEAR
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

YEAR (x)
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

y'
30.77778
31.55556
32.33333
33.11111
33.88889
34.66667
35.44444
36.22222
37
37.77778
38.55556

ARITHMETIC STRA

SALES

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

YEAR

THMETIC STRAIGHT LINE

YEAR

3. ARITHMETIC GEOMETRIC CURVE

y = (y-1) (1 + r)
y 1 = y / (1 + r)
where:

y' = calculated value of the dependent variable, which is the varia

whose value is to be predicted
y-1 = value for the past
r = average rate of increase
r= % increase (decrease)
N1
% increase (decrease) = Current

Historical Supply
YEAR
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

%
increase
YEAR (x) SALES (y) (decrease
)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
55

23
20
21
24
23
26
26
25
28
30
246

0
-1.5
0.333333
0.75
-0.2
0.5
0
-0.125
0.333333
0.2
0.29167

ariable, which is the variable

redicted

ncrease (decrease)

se (decrease) = Current sales Prior Sales

Base Year

ARITHMET
45
40

0.032407

YEAR

YEAR (x)

y'

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

30.97222
31.97595
33.01221
34.08205
35.18656
36.32687
37.50413
38.71954
39.97434
41.2698
42.60725

35
30
25
SALES

20
15
10
5
0

ARITHMETIC GEOMETRIC CURVE

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

YEAR

4. STATISTICAL PARABOLIC CURVE

y = a + bx + cx2
where:

y' = calculated value of the dependent value which is the variable wh

x = given value of the independent variable, which is the variable in
a = ( x4 ) ( y ) ( x

n ( x4
b = xy
x

c = n ( x2 y ) ( x2

n ( x4 ) ( x2 )2

Historical Supply
YEAR
YEAR (x) SALES (y)
1990
1
23
1991
2
20
1992
3
21
1993
4
24
1994
5
23
1995
6
26
1996
7
26
1997
8
25
1998
9
28
1999
10
30
55
246

x^2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
385

x^2y
23
80
189
384
575
936
1274
1600
2268
3000
10329

x^4
1
16
81
256
625
1296
2401
4096
6561
10000
25333

xy
23
40
63
96
115
156
182
200
252
300
1427

e which is the variable whose value is to be predicted

which is the variable in terms of which the value of the dependent variable is to be predicted.
a = ( x4 ) ( y ) ( x2 ) ( x2y )
n ( x4 ) ( x2 )2
b = xy

c = n ( x2 y ) ( x2 ) ( y )
n ( x4 ) ( x2 )2

ST

a
b
c

21.45714
3.706494
0.081633

YEAR
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

YEAR (x)
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

y'
72.10612
77.69017
83.43748
89.34805
95.42189
101.659
108.0594
114.623
121.3499
128.2401
135.2935

140
120
100
80
SALES

60
40
20
0

STATISTICAL PARABOLIC CURVE

140
120
100
80
SALES

60
40
20
0

YEAR