DJ European Forex Technicals

Fri Jun 18 03:28:00 EDT 2010

GBP/USD Rally On Track For 1.5000

By Francis Bray
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:

Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF

Spot 0621 GMT 1.2396 90.86 1.4840 1.1117

3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Range Range Bullish Bearish
200 day ma 1.3491 92.00 1.5445 1.0834
3rd Resistance 1.2500 91.82 1.4968 1.1250
2nd Resistance 1.2454 91.42 1.4891 1.1185
1st Resistance 1.2414 91.08 1.4854 1.1149
Pivot* 1.2348 90.99 1.4770 1.1188
1st Support 1.2339 90.51 1.4775 1.1095
2nd Support 1.2283 90.07 1.4715 1.1065
3rd Support 1.2242 90.00 1.4647 1.1037

Intraday EUR/USD: The EUR continues its convalescence following Thursday's break above
1.2354 to leave a bullish outside day, and temporary resistance at Friday's session high at 1.2414
is likely to be broken. The 1.1876 low has become a potential bear failure low, and there is room
for further strength towards the May 28 lower high at 1.2454. Only a break below 1.2339 would
question the near-term bullish outlook, exposing Thursday's low at 1.2242.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.

Intraday USD/JPY: Near-term bears probed below 90.84 Thursday to extend the setback off the
June 4 reaction high at 92.89, and pressure is building on support at 90.51. There is scope for
further weakness towards downwave equality at 90.07, which is part of a support cluster
incorporating 90.00 and 89.82. The 91.08 level reverts to resistance, and only a sustained break
through there would question the bearish outlook, opening 91.42
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Range.

Intraday GBP/USD: An impressive reversal off the 1.4647 low Thursday leaves a bullish
engulfing candle, and the week's high at 1.4854 is set to be broken. Above there opens an
equality target at 1.4891, but there is scope for further strength towards 1.4968 and the
psychologically-important 1.5000 level. Only below 1.4775 would defer the bullish outlook, but
corrective downside should be limited to the 1.4715 area.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Definitive weakness Thursday upgrades the decline off the June 1 peak at
1.1730 following the break below 1.1250, and support at 1.1095 is set for a retest. Although
there is risk for a corrective rally, the dominant threat is for further weakness below 1.1095,
exposing retracement levels at 1.1037 and 1.1065 which protect the psychologically-important
1.1000 level. Resistance lies at 1.1185, but with more solid resistance at 1.1250.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Bearish.
second table

Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD

Spot 0647 GMT 0.8352 112.44 1.3763 0.8683

3 Day Trend Bullish Range Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Bearish Bearish Bearish Bullish
200 day ma 0.8733 124.10 1.4576 0.8771
3rd Resistance 0.8458 113.32 1.3890 0.8830
2nd Resistance 0.8411 113.19 1.3865 0.8791
1st Resistance 0.8380 112.81 1.3809 0.8725
Pivot* 0.8359 112.53 1.3815 0.8652
1st Support 0.8335 111.88 1.3735 0.8607
2nd Support 0.8325 111.63 1.3700 0.8582
3rd Support 0.8288 110.87 1.3640 0.8507

Intraday EUR/GBP: Resistance has emerged at 0.8380 to leave a bearish doji Thursday, but the
underlying positivity suggests there is room for further strength to the 1.618 extension target at
0.8411. Last week's double-bottom highlights 0.8458 as a measured objective. Immediate
support lies in the 0.8325/35 area, and only a break below Tuesday's low at 0.8265 would
concern near-term bulls.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.

Intraday EUR/JPY: Thursday's recovery off 111.63 has left the market range bound,
consolidating beneath Wednesday's near-term peak at 113.32. While the near-term tone remains
positive, there is more likelihood for bull pressure on 112.81, opening the 113.19/32 highs on a
break. Loss of 111.88 would create risk for renewed bear pressure on 111.63, which protects
Tuesday's low at 110.87.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.

Intraday EUR/CHF: Thursday's sharp setback brings the focus sharply back onto the recent all-
time low at 1.3735. A break below there would expose projected targets at 1.3700 and 1.3640,
but longer-term bears will be targeting the 1.3500. Regaining ground above 1.3809 would defer
the bearish outlook, but corrective gains should be limited to the 1.3865 area.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.

Intraday AUD/USD: Thursday's strength negated a bearish doji, and the push above 0.8675 is
now putting pressure on resistance at 0.8725. This represents 50% retracement of the dominant
0.9381/0.8068 decline, and also the low of a former range, reverting to resistance to protect
0.8791. Only below 0.8582 would question the bullish outlook, exposing Tuesday's 0.8507
reaction low.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bullish.

Disclaimer
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not
consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a
specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the
information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow
Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)