Vol.

: 322
28 NOV,2016

Index

MARKET VIEW

Market View

Company Update

Around the
Economy

Knowledge Corner

3 seen some FII selling in equity and bond market. The victory of

Mutual Fund

Commodity Corner

5 lar back in USA and the USD is rising against the currencies of

Forex Corner

6 emerging markets. The Indian Rupee has depreciated the least

Report Card

Short Term Call Status

Editor & Contributor

Darshana Mishra

INDIA STORY STILL INTACT

On back of Trump victory and Demonetization, we have
Trump has triggered a talk in USA that massive infra spending
will be under taken in USA. This expected move attracted US Dol-

against USD amount the emerging market currencies.

The Demonetization has posed many questions. The real
concern is how much damage it will inflict so far as GDP growth
is concerned. The answer to this question is very difficult and
only time will tell. The market is expecting some positive an-

Special Contributors
Kunal Shah
Dhaval Ghodasara

nouncement in near future which will increase the tax collection.

Any such announcement will be positive for the market. One has
to wait and watch for future announcement.
Technically, any rise above 8150 which is 200 DMA will be
positive for the market. Any break below 7850/7900 range will be
negative for the market.

For suggestions, feedback

and queries
jstreet@jhaveritrade.com

-1-

Kamal Jhaveri
MD- Jhaveri Securities

Vol.: 322
28 NOV,2016

Company Update : Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd.

Financial Basics

Company Basics
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
EQUITY (` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP (` in Cr.)

EDELWEISS

FV (`)
EPS (`) (TTM)
P/E (x) (TTM)

1.00
0.14
20.4

79.57

P/BV (x) (TTM)

2.54

BETA

0.7

532922

9362.17

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name
Public
Promoter
Others

% Holding
57.47
37.11
5.42

Outlook and valuation : We forecast EPS growth of 37%/25% for FY17-18. We believe ROEs will expand 4.2 ppts
over FY16-18 to 16.4%. Despite a 90% run-up in the stock price YTD, we envisage further upside. Earnings upgrade
and higher multiple for credit business at 2x FY18F P/BV (vs. 1.5x earlier) drive our TP to Rs 150. NBFCs peers with
16-17% ROEs trade at 2.0-2.5x P/BV.
Company Overview :
Edelweiss Capital Limited (ECL) is one of India's fastest growing integrated investment banking companies. The Group's
services include investment banking, institutional equities, private client broking, asset management, wealth management,
insurance broking, wholesale financing and mutual funds. During the year 2006, the company made NBFC registration of
ECL Finance Limited and managed the first Qualified Institutional Placement under the new regulatory framework in India.
As of May 2008, the company had received final regulatory approval from the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI)
to start its mutual fund business.
Investment Rational :
Strong performance in the market.
Edelweiss is one of the best pick among the NBFC space. Credit book is delivering good ROEs which I s being driven by healthy asset
quality, controlled costs and higher margins Future asset growth visibility is very high in the credit line businesses. What we specifically
like is its non monoline credit book which is well diversified across sectors.Q1 profit up by 54% YoY, and EPS by 8%. Loans grew up by
29% YOY across segments'. Credit business now forms 70% of earnings from 35% in FY11.
Edelweiss Financial Services Consolidated ROEs at 15% Ex-insurance ROEs have been improving in recent years as EDEL scales up
its credit business. Concurrently, the drag from low-yielding treasury investments has shriveled 1QFY17 annualized consolidated ROE
leapt to 15% from 12 % in FY16.Ex insurance ROE also improved to 19.4% YoY. We expect consolidated ROEs of 16-18% by FY18.
Agency business gaining strong footing
Last 7-8 years have been spent to build different agency line businesses and majority of them have gained considerable size now. In
capital market segment, broking average daily volume increased by 20% yoy to Rs60 bn for the quarter. Interestingly, broking businesses has enabled the NBFC to gain clients to whom they cross- sell wealth management, insurance products etc. Currently, nearly,
15% of its insurance products and 10-12% of housing loans are sold via its broking arm.

- 2-

Vol.: 322
28 NOV,2016

Around The World

Weekly Market Recap :
The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, settled above the psychological 26,000 level after falling below that mark in the course of
trading during the week. The Nifty 50 index settled above the psychological 8,000 mark after falling below that mark. Airtel has successfully completed the acquisition of rights to use 20 MHz of spectrum in 2300 Band (BWA) from Aircel, for Andhra Pradesh.
US weekly jobless claims increased 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 251,000 for the week ended 19 Nov 2016, the Labor Dept. said. The
claims have now been below 300,000. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said US durable goods increased 4.8% in October, well
above a consensus estimate. Gross domestic product in Europe's largest economy grew 0.2%, or an annualized rate of 0.8%, Destatis
said.

Market Eye Week ahead :

India's GDP growth rate slowed to 7.1% in Q1 June 2016 from 7.9% expansion in Q4 March 2016. Infrastructure output in India went up
5% year-on-year in September, following a 3.2% growth in August. Markit Economics will announce India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for Nov. on 1 December 2016. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI climbed to a 22-month
peak to 54.4 in October from 52.1 in September.

India's GDP growth rate slowed to 7.1% in Q1 June 2016 from 7.9% expansion in Q4 March 2016. Infrastructure output in India went up
5% year-on-year in September, following a 3.2% growth in August. Markit Economics will announce India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for Nov. on 1 December 2016. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI climbed to a 22-month
peak to 54.4 in October from 52.1 in September.

Key Events / Factors to Watch

1. Mon : Results: Oil India, Sadbhav Engg, Cox&Kings, Triveni Engg, Hindustan Composites.
2. Tue : Results: Tata Power, National Fertlizers, Tamilnadu news& print
3. Wed : Results : Balkrishna Ind, Gurat St Petronet, GVK Power & Infra, Pinj Lyold.
4. Thu: Results: Clariant Chem, Gillete India. Graphite India, Dilip Buildcon
5. Fri : Results: Ashoka Buildcon, Ge Power India, TV Today Network.

Knowledge Corner :
Qualified institutional placement (QIP)

These Qualified institutional placement (QIP) is a capital-raising tool, primarily used in India and other parts of southern
Asia, whereby a listed company can issue equity shares, fully and partly convertible debentures, or any securities other
than warrants which are convertible to equity shares to a qualified institutional buyer (QIB).

How much can companies raise via QIP : In a single financial year a company can raise not more than 5 times its net
worth based on the audited financial statements of the previous financial year.
- 3-

Vol.: 322
28 NOV,2016

Mutual Fund Corner

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups

Fund Name

Fund (%)

Sector Weights

Scheme Name

BIRLA SUN LIFE ADVANTAGE FUND

AMC

BIRLA un Life Asset Management Company

Financial
Automobile

35.34
17.82

Energy

2.63

Healthcare

12.07

Type

Open Ended & Equity-oriented

Category

Open-ended

FMCG

4.45

Launch Date

Feburary 1995

Cons. Durable

2.77

Metals

4.36

Construction

6.03

Diversified

3.58

Chemicals

5.18

Fund Manager
Net Assets
In crore )

History

Satyabrata Mohanty since Oct 2011

(`

Rs. 1842.9 crore as on Oct 31,2016

2013

2014

2015

2016

173.66

278.11

292.67

323.30

7.23

60.14

4.77

10.47

27/73

9/145

61/78

18/143

52 Week High (Rs)

173.76

280.58

314.86

362.13

52 Week Low (Rs)

136.14

164.16

272.70

252.92

NAV (Rs)
Total Return (%)
Rank (Fund/Category)

Risk Analysis
Volatility Measures
Standard Deviation

17.14

Sharpe Ratio

1.30

Beta

1.10

R-Squared
Alpha

0.80
14.94

Composition (%)
98.26

Equity
Net Assets (Rs.Cr)
Expense Ratio (%)

278.89

393.02

580.62

2.87

2.85

2.81

1473.59
-

Debt

3.52

Cash

-1.79

Fund Performance v/s S&P BSE 100

Fund Style
Investment Style
Growth

Blend

Value

Medium
Small

Fund
S&P BSE 200
(Rebased to 10,000)
- 4-

Capitalization

Large

Source : - www.valueresearchonline.com

Vol.: 322
28 NOV,2016

Commodity Corner
BULLION
FUNDAMENTAL: Last week Gold dropped hurt by a strong dollar and surging Treasury yields as investors bet on higher growth and infla-

tion under U.S. president elect Trump. The metal has also been pressured by talks of an almost certain U.S. interest rate hike in December. Bullion shed heavily this month and has lost over $160 an ounce since the peak after the U.S. election on Nov. 9, hurt b y a strong
dollar and surging Treasury yields as investors bet on higher growth and inflation under U.S. president-elect Trump. Gold premiums in
top consumer China jumped to the highest in nearly three years this week on worries over a supply shortage that traders said were due
to Beijing's efforts to restrict import licenses. China's net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong fell 15 percent from a year earlier to
61.075 tonnes in October. The premiums could stay high as gold retailers and manufacturers may replenish stocks for the Chinese New
Year in January, taking advantage of spot prices hitting nine-month lows. In India, the world's No. 2 gold consumer, premiums dropped
due to subdued demand after the government scrapped high-value notes. Cash crunch was forcing retail consumers to trim purchases,
while jewelers were waiting for prices to fall next month. Dealers charged a premium of up to $3 over official domestic prices that include
a 10 percent import tax. The US dollar gleaned strength from news that US durable goods orders rose much more strongly than forecasted it was up 4.8% month-on month versus an expected uptick of 1.7%.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL GOLD @ 29100 SL 29600 TGT 28400-27800 SELL SILVER @42000 SL 42800 TGT 41400-40400

BASE METALS
FUNDAMENTAL: Base metals prices ended with gains where zinc and lead prices ended with 14 percent gains on bets that demand was

picking up faster than supply amid a broad-based rally across the metals complex. A run of positive Chinese economic data and optimism about infrastructure spending in the U.S. following the election of Donald Trump have fueled optimism about demand for industrial
metals. Markets have long believed zinc was heading for a supply shortfall as demand picked up, and now we are seeing that. The
metal, used to protect steel from corroding, has gained nearly 90 percent since bouncing off a 6-1/2 year low of $1,444.50 in January on
worries about shortages due to mine closures. The zinc market is expected to see a 400,000 tonne deficit this year. But this could easily
be offset by inventories, which in LME-approved warehouses stand at above 440,000 tonnes, a survey showed. Hidden inventories, estimated at 1.4 million tonnes by Macquarie or about 10 percent of global demand, trickling into the market may also surprise zinc bulls.
The global supply pool of zinc has been contracting as reserves are exhausted at huge mines in Australia, Canada and Ireland. Meanwhile other major producing nations such as Peru have seen output drop as richer ores are mined out.
RECOMMENDATION : BUY ALUMINIUM @ 118 SL 115 TGT 121.50-124.50 BUY COPPER @ 395 SL 370 TGT 418-435 BUY ZINC @ 194 SL
188 TGT 201-208 BUY NICKEL @ 785 SL 765 TGT 820-845.

ENERGY
FUNDAMENTAL : .Last week, Crudeoil prices ended with gains amid uncertainty over whether OPEC will agree to cut production at the

group's meeting. Reports that state oil giant Saudi Aramco would in January increase oil supplies to some Asian customers also cast a
shadow on markets. A decline in China's October crude oil imports to their lowest on a daily basis since January added to the bearish
tone. The oil minister of non-OPEC nation Azerbaijan said OPEC was also pushing oil producers outside the group to make big cuts in
output. The surge in OPEC output since August has shifted the market back into oversupply and re-balancing will be deferred until the
second half of 2017 without a cut of at least 700,000 barrels per day. Investment in new oil production is likely to fall for a third year in
2017 as a global supply glut persists, stoking volatility in crude markets, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. " A period of greater oil price volatility (partly) as a result of three years in a row of global oil investments in decline: in 2015, 2016 and most
likely 2017," IEA director general Fatih Birol said, speaking at an energy conference in Tokyo. "This is the first time in the history of oil
that investments are declining three years in a row," he said, adding that this would cause "difficulties" in global oil markets in a few
years. Natural gas prices ended with more than 8 percent gains as cooler forecasts continue raising expectations for increased demand.
RECOMMENDATION : SELL CRUDE @ 3250 SL 3420 TGT 3100-2880. BUY NAT.GAS @ 215 SL 202 TGT 228-242

- 5-

Vol.: 322
28 NOV ,2016

Commodity Corner

Forex Corner

Market Recap :

The Indian rupee on Monday was trading near a

fresh record low against the US dollar, amid
nearly $5 billion outflows from foreign institutional
investors (FIIs) in local equity and bond markets
since the government announced the demonetisation scheme.

The central bank said banks would need to transfer 100% of their cash under the RBIs cash reserve ratio from deposits generated between 16
September and 11 November, saying it was a
temporary measure that would be reviewed on or
before 9 December.

Market Eye Week ahead :

The USDINR On daily chart pair has formed DOJI candlestick pattern. Which represent uncertainty, and other
hand pair has been trading below all short term, medium term, and long term moving average which is 20, 100
and 200.Whereas on weekly chart pair has continually taking support at 50WMA. Which suggest short term trend
is bullish. So for trading perspective, one could buy up to the level 68.38-66.82 with SL of 68.06 for target of
69.00-69.20.

USD/INR
Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

USD/INR

67.68

68.06

68.44

68.82

69.20

68.83

68.07

68.43

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

EUR/INR

71.84

72.19

72.56

72.91

73.28

72.94

72.22

72.53

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

GBP/INR

83.08

84.16

85.00

86.08

86.92

85.83

83.91

85.25

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

JPY/INR

59.19

59.94

60.87

61.62

62.55

61.80

60.12

60.87

EUR/INR

GBP/INR

JPY/INR

-- 46--

Vol.: 322
28 NOV,2016

J Street Recommendations Report Card

Nifty last week opened at 8102.10 and fell to a low of 7916.40. Recovery was seen to close the week at 8114.30 was
witnessed thereby showed a flat gain in 0.5% on week to week basis. Hammer has been formed which suggest that further weakness is below 7916. Cover short position at 8114 or below as the opportunity arises. Traders can revise down the
stop loss to 8122. Support will be at 8050-7979. Contrarian traders can take chance to accumulate at 8050- 7979 with a stop
loss of 7900.Exit long at 8185-8256-8391 as the opportunity arises. Sell is below 7900 with high of the week as stop loss or
8114 whichever is higher.

Top Fundamental Stocks

Rec. Date

CMP on Rec.

CMP

Target

Absolute
Return @
CMP

30/08/2016

630

650

732

-3%

Buy

25/07/2016

235

249

308

-9%

Buy

Capital First

06/06/2016

552

566

660

-20%

Profit book

Wonderla Holidays

25/04/2016

387

333

498

-14%

Accumulate

Mold-Tek Packaging

04/04/2016

138

50

179

2%

Buy

Jamna Auto

22/02/2016

133

183

181

-19%

Buy

MT Educare

01/02/2016

164

115

230

-14%

Buy

Garware-Wall Ropes

28/12/2015

425

616

550

12%

Buy

AYM Syntax

23/11/2015

121

70

223

-17%

Buy

Natco Parma

02/11/2015

509

618

636

5%

Buy

SRF

21/09/2015

1140

1544

1374

-12%

Buy

Ahluwalia contracts

24/08/2015

235

246

368

-14%

Buy

20/07/2015

190

240

255

-1%

Buy

04/05/2015

298

275

430

1%

Buy

16/03/2015

152

156

251

-6%

Buy

DHFL

16/02/2015

252

241

368

-24%

Accumulate

TV Today Network

27/01/2015

222

308

337

-10%

Buy

M&M

12/01/2015

1238

1173

1452

-13%

Buy

Havells India

27/10/2014

274

334

346

-18%

Buy

PTC India Fin. Ser.

07/07/2014

39

38

45

-7%

Profit book

Adani Port

05/07/2014

280

269

347

-11%

Accumulate

Stocks
Alembic Pharmaceuticals
Coromandel
International

Infinite Computer
Sol.
Sadbhav
Engineering Ltd.
Omkar speciality
Chemicals

Status

It's not important whether you are right or wrong, Its about how much money you make when you're right and how
much you lose when you're wrong.
- 7-

Vol.: 322
28 NOV,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

Sr.
No.

DATE

STOCK

BUY/
SELL

RANGE

RANGE

6-Oct-16

ASIANPAINT

BUY

1190

1210

7-Oct-16

TATASTEEL

BUY

402

13-Oct-16

NTPC

SELL

14-Oct-16

BATAINDIA

17-Oct-16

SL

STATUS

%
RETURN

1200.00 1258.00

1156

TA

4.20

410

406.00 429.00

386

TA

4.90

148

146

147.00 140.00

152

SL

-3.80

SELL

498

492

495.00 480.00

509

TA

3.20

NBCC

SELL

257

255

256.00 245.00

265

TA

4.00

18-Oct-16

ZEEL

SELL

508

498

503.00 478.00

520

SL

-3.80

19-Oct-16

YESBANK

BUY

1285

1296

1290.50 1348.00

1249

TA

4.20

20-Oct-16

WIPRO

BUY

490

498

494.00 518.00

475

SL

-4.10

21-Oct-16

HINDALCO

BUY

154

156

155.00 163.00

150

TA

4.30

10

24-Oct-16

IGL

BUY

856

870

863.00 904.00

834

TA

3.80

11

25-Oct-16

LUPIN

BUY

1515

1535

1525.00 1595.00

1468

SL

-3.80

12

26-Oct-16

DRREDDY

BUY

3180

3220

3200.00 3348.00

3090

TA

4.60

13

27-Oct-16

BIOCON

SELL

915

900

907.50 864.00

940

TA

4.70

14

1-Nov-16

CADILAHC

BUY

416

427

421.50 441.00

405

OPEN

15

2-Nov-16

AXISBANK

SELL

480

470

475.00 451.00

495

OPEN

16

3-Nov-16

GRASIM

SELL

945

925

935.00 885.00

975

TA

4.2

17

4-Nov-16

WOCKPHRMA SELL

845

830

837.50 795.00

870

TA

4.1

18

7-Nov-16

HCLTECH

BUY

785

800

792.50 830.00

760

TA

4.2

19

8-Nov-16

GAIL

BUY

425

435

430.00 451.00

411

TA

4.4

20

9-Nov-16

CIPLA

SELL

515

500

507.50 530.00

485

SL

-4.2

21

10-Nov-16

SBIN

BUY

258

262

260.00 270.00

252

OPEN

22

11-Nov-16

JISLJALEQS

BUY

98

100

99.00

105.00

94

SL

4.2

23

15-Nov-16

AMBUJACEM SELL

222

218

220.00 210.00

228

TA

4.3

- 7-

TRIGGER
PRICE

TGT

Vol.: 322
28 NOV, 2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

Sr. No.

DATE

STOCK

BUY/
SELL

RANGE

RANGE

TRIGGER
PRICE

TGT

SL

STATUS

%
RETURN

24

16-Nov-16

HDFCBANK

BUY

1240

1260

1250.00

1310.00

1200

SL

-4

25

17-Nov-16

BHEL

SELL

133

130

131.50

124.00

137

TA

4.2

26

18-Nov-16

INDIACEM

SELL

114

111

112.50

106.00

118

TA

4.6

27

21-Nov-16

POWERGRID

BUY

188

192

190.00

200.00

182

OPEN

28

22-Nov-16

PETRONET

BUY

365

370

367.50

386.00

354

OPEN

29

23-Nov-16

ADANIPORT

BUY

258

262

260.00

273.00

250

OPEN

30

24-Nov-16

M&M

SELL

1196

1185

1190.50

1134.00

1235

OPEN

STATUS

CALLS

RATIO

TA+PB

17

77.27

SL+EXIT

05

22.72

TOTAL

22

100.00

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.
Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.
This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.
Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.
Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against the
Expected return of 5-6%
Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)

- 7-

Vol.: 322
28 NOV,2016