CONTENT Objective

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part4
Part5
Further Exploration
Reflection
2 Objective The aims carrying out this project work are:
i. To apply and adapt a variety of problem-solving strategies to solve
problems;
ii. To improve thinking skills;
iii. To promote effective mathematical communication;
iv. To develop mathematical knowledge through problem solving in a
way that increases students interest and confidence;
v. To use the language of mathematics to express mathematical ideas
precisely;
vi. To provide learning environment that stimulates and enhances
effective learning;
vii.To develop positive attitude towards mathematics.
3 INTRODUCTION What is Probability Probability is a way of expressing knowledge
or belief that anevent will occur or has occurred. Inmathemati csthe concept ha
s been given an exact meaning
in probability theory, that is used extensively in such areas of study as
mathematics,stati sti cs,fi nance,gambli ng,sci ence, andphi l osophy to draw
conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the underlying
mechanics of complex systems.
4 PART 1 5 Theory of Probability History of Probability Probability has a dual
aspect: on the one hand the probability or likelihood of hypotheses given the ev
idence for them, and on the other hand the behavior
of stochastic processes such as the throwing of dice or coins. The study of the
former is
historically older in, for example, the law of evidence, while the mathematical
treatment
of dice began with the work ofPascal andFermat in the 1650s.
Probability is distinguished fromstati sti cs. While statistics deals with data
and inferences from it, (stochastic) probability deals with the stochastic (rand
om) processes which lie behind data or outcomes. Some highlight in the history o
f probability are: 18th century: Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (posthumous,
1713) and Abraham de Moivre's The Doctrine of Chances (1718) put probability on
a sound mathematical footing, showing how to calculate a wide range of complex p
robabilities. Bernoulli
proved a version of the fundamental law of large numbers, which states that in a
large
number of trials, the average of the outcomes is likely to be very close to the
expected
value - for example, in 1000 throws of a fair coin, it is likely that there are
close to 500
heads (and the larger the number of throws, the closer to half-and-half the prop
ortion is
likely to be).
19th century: The power of probabilistic methods in dealing with uncertainty was
shown byGauss's determination of the orbit ofCeres from a few observations. The
theory of errors used the method of least squares to correct error-prone observ
ations, especially 6 in astronomy, based on the assumption of a normal distribu
tion of errors to determine the most likely true value. Towards the end of the n
ineteenth century, a major success of explanation in terms of probabilities was
theStatistical mechanics of Ludwig Boltzmann and J. Willard Gibbs which explaine
d properties of gases such as temperature in terms of the random motions of larg
e numbers of particles. The field of the history of probability itself was estab
lished by Isaac Todhunter's monumental History of the Mathematical Theory of Pro
bability from the Time of Pascal to that of Lagrange(1865). 20th century: Probab
ility and statistics became closely connected through the work on hypothesis tes
ting of R. A. Fisher andJerzy Neyman, which is now widely applied in
biological and psychological experiments and in clinical trials of drugs. A hypo
thesis, for
example that a drug is usually effective, gives rise to a probability distributi
on that would
be observed if the hypothesis is true. If observations approximately agree with
the
hypothesis, it is confirmed, if not, the hypothesis is rejected.[5]
The theory of stochastic processes broadened into such areas asMarkov
processesan d Brownian motion, the random movement of tiny particles suspended i
n a fluid. That provided a model for the study of random fluctuations in stock m
arkets, Application of Probability in Daily life Two major applications of proba
bility theory in everyday life are inri sk assessment and
in trade on commodity markets. Governments typically apply probabilistic methods
in environmental regulation where it is called "pathway analysis", often measuri
ng well-
being using methods that are stochastic in nature, and choosing projects to unde
rtake based on statistical analyses of their probable effect on the population a
s a whole. A good example is the effect of the perceived probability of any wide
spread Middle East
conflict on oil prices - which have ripple effects in the economy as a whole. An
assessment by a commodity trader that a war is more likely vs. less likely sends
prices
up or down, and signals other traders of that opinion. Accordingly, the probabil
ities are
not assessed independently nor necessarily very rationally. The theory ofbehavi
oral
7 finance emerged to describe the effect of such groupthink on pricing, on poli
cy, and on peace and conflict. It can reasonably be said that the discovery of r
igorous methods to assess and combine
probability assessments has had a profound effect on modern society. Accordingly
, it
may be of some importance to most citizens to understand how odds and probabilit
y
assessments are made, and how they contribute to reputations and to decisions,
especially in ademocracy.
Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life isrel i a
bi li ty. Many consumer products, such asautomobil es and consumer electronics,
utilizerel i abi li ty theory in the design of the product in order to reduce th
e probability of failure. The probability of failure may be closely associated w
ith the product'sw arranty. 8 Theorical Probabilities and Empirical Probabiliti
es Theorical Probabilities: Probability theory is the branch ofmathemati cs conc
erned with analysis ofrandom phenomena.[1] The central objects of probability th
eory arerandom variables, stochastic processes, and events: mathematical abstrac
tions of non- deterministic events or measured quantities that may either be sin
gle occurrences or evolve over time in an apparently random fashion. Although an
individual coin toss or
the roll of adi e is a random event, if repeated many times the sequence of rand
om
events will exhibit certain statistical patterns, which can be studied and predi
cted. Two
representative mathematical results describing such patterns are the law of larg
e
numbers and the central limit theorem. As a mathematical foundation forstati sti
cs, probability theory is essential to many
human activities that involve quantitative analysis of large sets of data. Metho
ds of
probability theory also apply to descriptions of complex systems given only part
ial
knowledge of their state, as instatistical mechanics. A great discovery of twent
ieth
centuryphysi cs was the probabilistic nature of physical phenomena at atomic sca
les,
described in quantum mechanics.
Empirical Probabilities Empirical probability, also known as relative frequency,
or experimental probability, is the ratio of the number favorable outcomes to t
he total number of trials,[1] 9 [2] not in a sample space but in an actual sequ
ence of experiments. In a more general sense, empirical probability estimates pr
obabilities fromexperience andobservati on. [3] The phrase a posteriori probabil
ity has also been used as an alternative to empirical probability or relative fr
equency.[4] This unusual usage of the phrase is not
directly related to Bayesian inference and not to be confused with its equally o
ccasional
use to refer to posterior probability, which is something else.
In statistical terms, the empirical probability is an estimate of a probability.
If modelling using a binomial distribution is appropriate, it is themaximum lik
elihood estimate. It is the Bayesian estimate for the same case if certain assum
ptions are made for theprior
distribution of the probability An advantage of estimating probabilities using e
mpirical probabilities is that this
procedure is relatively free of assumptions. For example, consider estimating th
e
probability among a population of men that they satisfy two conditions: (i) that
they are
over 6 feet in height; (ii) that they prefer strawberry jam to raspberry jam. A
direct
estimate could be found by counting the number of men who satisfy both condition
s to
give the empirical probability the combined condition. An alternative estimate c
ould be
found by multiplying the proportion of men who are over 6 feet in height with th
e
proportion of men who prefer strawberry jam to raspberry jam, but this estimate
relies
on the assumption that the two conditions are statistically independent.
A disadvantage in using empirical probabilities arises in estimating probabiliti
es which
are either very close to zero, or very close to one. In these cases very large s
ample
sizes would be needed in order to estimate such probabilities to a good standard
of
relative accuracy. Herestatistical models can help, depending on the context, an
d in
general one can hope that such models would provide improvements in accuracy
compared to empirical probabilities, provided that the assumptions involved actu
ally do
hold. For example, consider estimating the probability that the lowest of the da
ily-
maximum temperatures at a site in February in any one year is less zero degrees
Celsius. A record of such temperatures in past years could be used to estimate t
his
probability. A model-based alternative would be to select of family ofprobabilit
y
distributions and fit it to the dataset contain past yearly values: the fitted d
istribution would provide an alternative estimate of the required probability. T
his alternative
method can provide an estimate of the probability even if all values in the reco
rd are
greater than zero.
10 Difference between Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities Empirical probabi
lity is the probability a person calculates from many different trials. For
example someone can flip a coin 100 times and then record how many times it came
up heads
and how many times it came up tails. The number of recorded heads divided by 100
is the
empirical probability that one gets heads.
The theoretical probability is the result that one should get if an infinite num
ber of trials were
done. One would expect the probability of heads to be 0.5 and the probability of
tails to be 0.5
for a fair coin.
11 PART 2 12 Part 2 13 Question: a)Suppose you are playing monopoly game with t
wo of your friends. To start the game, each player will have to toss the dice on
ce. The player who 14 obtain number will start the game. List all the possible
outcomes when the dice is tossed once. Solution There are three player, consider
ed as P1,P2, and P3. The total side of the
die which is cube is six, and the number of dots on the dice is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
and 6 respectively.
Thus, the possible outcomes are:
{1,2,3,4,5,6}
Question: b) Instead of one die, two dice can also be tossed simultaneously by e
ach
player. The player will move the token according to the sum of all dots on
both turned-up faces. For example, if two dice are tossed simultaneously
and 2 appears on one dice and 3 on the other, the outcome of the toss
is (2,3). Hence, the player shall move the token 5 spaces. Notes: The
events (2,3) and (3,2) should be treated as two different events.
List all the possible outcomes when two dice are tossed simultaneously. Organize
and present your list clearly. Consider the use of table, chart or even diagram
.
Solution By tossing two dice, the total possible outcomes are:
{(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2
,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,
6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,
6)} OR By using table, the possible outcomes when two dice are tossed can be lis
ted. 1 2 3 4 5 6 15 1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) 2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (
2,4) (2,5) (2,6) 3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) 4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4)
(4,5) (4,6) 5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6) 6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,
5) (6,6) The total possible outcomes from the tossing of the two dice is 36, or
n(S)=6X6=36, which are applied from the multiplication rule. OR OR 16 17 PART 3
18 Part 3 Question: The Table 1 shows the sum of all dots on both turned up fa
ces when two
dice are tossed simultaneously.
(a) Complete Table 1 by listing all possible outcomes and their
corresponding probabilities.
Sum of the dots on
both turned up faces(x)
Possible outcomes Probability,p(x) 1 - 0 2 (1,1) 1/36 3 (1,2), (2,1) 1/18 4 (1,3
), (2,2), (3,1) 1/12 5 (1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1) 1/9 6 (1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,
2), 5,1) 5/36 7 (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1) 1/6 8 (2,6), (3,5), (4,
4), (5,3), (6,2) 5/36 9 (3,6), (4,5), (5,4), (6,3) 1/9 10 (4,6), (5,5), (6,4) 1/
12 11 (5,6), (6,5) 1/18 12 (6,6) 1/36 Total 36 1 (b) Based on Table 1 that you h
ave competed, list all the possible
outcomes of the following events and hence find their corresponding
probabilities:
A= {The two numbers are not the same}
B= {The product of the two numbers is greater than 36}
C= {Both numbers are prime or the difference between two
numbers
is odd} D={The sum of the two numbers are even and both numbers are prime} 19 S
olution 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) 2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2
,4) (2,5) (2,6) 3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) 4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4)
(4,5) (4,6) 5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6) 6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5
) (6,6) A={ (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
, (3,1), (3,2),
(3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,5), (4,6), (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,
4),
(5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5)}
P(A)=??
A ={(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)}
P(A )=1/6
As P(A )=P (A)=1/6, thusP( A) =1- 1/6
=5/6 B={},as the maximum product is 6X6=36. This event is impossible to occur. T
hus,P(B)=0
Prime number(below six):2,3,5
Odd number(below six):1,3,5
C= PU Q C={(1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4),
(3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6
,3), (6,5)} =23/36 D = P R D={ (2,2), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)} P(D) =5/36 20
Answers:
A={ (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (3,1),
(3,2),
(3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,5), (4,6), (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,
4),
(5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5)}
P(A)= 5/6
B={} P(B)=0 C={(1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,3), (3
,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5)}
P(C)= 23/36
D={ (2,2), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)} P(D) =5/36 21 PART 4 22 Part 4 (a) Condu
ct an activity by tossing two dice simultaneously 50 times. Observe the sum of a
ll dots on both turned up faces. Complete the frequency table below.
Sum of the two numbers(x) Frequency( ) 2 1 2 4 3 2 6 18 4 5 20 80 5 3 15 75 6 6
36 216 7 10 70 490 8 8 64 512 9 6 54 486 10 6 60 600 11 2 22 242 12 1 12 144 Tot
al 50 361 2867 Based on Table 2 that you have completed, determine the value of:
Mean
Variance: and
Standard deviation
Of the data 23 Solution, From the table, i) mean, = ii) variance, ==5.2116 iii)
24 Standard deviation, == 2.2829 b) Predict the value if the mean if the numbe
r of tosses is increased to 100 times. -the number of tosses is increased double
, the mean will slightly change, maybe will inducted by 2.
New mean,
c)
Test your prediction in (b) by continuing Activity 3(a) until the total number o
f tosses is 100 times. Then, determine the value of:
i)mean
ii)variance: and
iii)standard deviation
of the new data.
Was your prediction proved?
Solution: Sum of the two numbers(x) Frequency( ) 2 5 10 20 3 5 15 45 4 10 40 160
5 9 45 225 25 6 15 90 540 7 16 112 784 8 14 112 896 9 13 117 1053 10 6 60 600
11 5 55 605 12 2 24 288 Total 100 680 5216 Solution, From the table, mean, = var
iance, ==5.92 26 Standard deviation, == 2.4331 The prediction is wrong. The new
mean is 6.8, which 0.42 lesser than the original mean. 27 PART 5 28 Part 5 Whe
n two dice are tossed simultaneously, the actual mean
and variance of the sum of all dots on the turned-up
faces can be determined by using the formulae below:
Mean= Variance= Based on table 1, determine the actual mean, the variance and th
e standard deviation of the sum of all dots on the turned up faces by using the
formula given.
Compare the mean, variance and standard deviation
obtained in Part 4 and Part 5. What can you say about
the values? Explain in your words your interpretation
and your understanding of the values that you have
obtained and relate your answers to the Theorical and
Empirical Probabilities
If n is the number of times of two dice are tossed
simultaneously, what is the range of mean of all dots on
the turned-up faces as n changes? Make your conjecture
and support your conjucture.
29 Solution: Sum of the dots on both turned up faces(x) Possible outcomes Proba
bility,p(x) 1 - 0 2 (1,1) 1/36 3 (1,2), (2,1) 1/18 4 (1,3), (2,2), (3,1) 1/12 5
(1,4), (2,3), (3,2), (4,1) 1/9 6 (1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), 5,1) 5/36 7 (1,6),
(2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1) 1/6 8 (2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3), (6,2) 5/36 9
(3,6), (4,5), (5,4), (6,3) 1/9 10 (4,6), (5,5), (6,4) 1/12 11 (5,6), (6,5) 1/18
12 (6,6) 1/36 Total 36 1 (a) i) Mean= +12 =7 30 ii) Variance= +144 ]- =54.8333
-49 =5.8333 iii) standard deviation, ==2.4152 The mean, variance and the standar
d deviation of data in
Part 4 and Part 5 are totally different. Mean, variance,
and standard deviation of the data in Part 5 exceeds the
mean, variance, and standard deviation of the data in
Part 4 by o.44, 0.0857, and 0.0179 respectively. The
values are different because there are two different
31 method used to identify the mean, variance, and
standard deviation which are by conducting an
experiment as conducted in Part 4 and by using
formulae in Part 5. In Part 4, the values may varies as
the result from the tossing of the dice are always
different. The probability to always get the same number
are very small, which is 1/36. Thus, it affect the values of
the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the data.
The method used in Part 4 to obtain these values also
known as Empirical Probabilities experiment.
Theoretical probabilities are used in identifying those
data in Part 5. The data are obtained from the
formula and the data will be constant as it is only
theoretical.
Conjecture: As the number of n increases, the mean will become closer to the the
oretical mean, which are 7.00.
Support and proof From the part 4 experiment, it is obvious that when the number
of n increases, which are 100, the mean become closer to 7 than when the value
of n 50. 32 FURTHER EXPLORATION 33 Further Exploration In probability theory, th
e Law of Large Numbers
(LNN) is a theorem that describes the result of
performing the same experiment a large number of
times. Conduct a research using the internet to find out
the theory of LLN. When you have finished with your
research, discuss and write about your findings. Relate
the experiment that you have done in this project to the
LLN.
34 Answer: In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is atheorem th
at describes the
result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to t
he law,
theaverage of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close
to
the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.
For example, a single roll of a six-sidedd ie produces one of the numbers 1, 2,
3, 4, 5, 6, each with equalprobabi l i ty. Therefore, the expected value of a si
ngle die roll is According to the law of large numbers, if a large number of dic
e are rolled, the
average of their values (sometimes called the sample mean) is likely to be close
to
3.5, with the accuracy increasing as more dice are rolled.
Similarly, when a fair coin is flipped once, the expected value of the number of
heads is equal to one half. Therefore, according to the law of large numbers, th
e
proportion of heads in a large number of coin flips should be roughly one half.
In
particular, the proportion of heads aftern flips will almost surely converge to
one
half asn approaches infinity.
Though the proportion of heads (and tails) approaches half, almost surely the
absolute (nominal) difference in the number of heads and tails will become large
as
the number of flips becomes large. That is, the probability that the absolute
difference is a small number approaches zero as number of flips becomes large.
Also, almost surely the ratio of the absolute difference to number of flips will
approach zero. Intuitively, expected absolute difference grows, but at a slower
rate
than the number of flips, as the number of flips grows.
The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for random
events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of
theroul ette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over
a
large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcom
e
by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the LLN only
applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observations are
35 considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will c
onverge
to the expected value or that a streak of one value will immediately be "balance
d"
by the others.
An illustration of the Law of Large Numbers using die rolls. As the number of di
e rolls increases, the average of the values of all the rolls approaches 3.5. Sa
me goes to the project, as the tosses increases to 100 times, the
mean become nearer to 7, which the actual value of mean. If the experiment
is continue until 200 times of tossing, the mean will become closer to 7.
36 REFLECTION 37 Reflection While I conducting the project, I had learned some
moral
values that I practice. This project had taught me to
responsible on the works that are given to me to be
completed. This project also had make me felt more
confidence to do works and not to give easily when we
could not find the solution for the question. I also learned to
be more discipline on time, which I was given about a
month to complete these project and pass up to my teacher
just in time. I also enjoy doing this project during my school
holiday as I spend my time with friends to complete this
project and it had tighten our friendship.
38