World Agricultural Supply and

Demand Estimates
Report of May 10, 2016

Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts

World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair
Economic Research Service
Foreign Agricultural Service
Farm Service Agency
Agricultural Marketing Service

World Wheat Production

Country or Region

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Million Tons

World
United States
Foreign
Argentina
Canada
Australia
European Union
Russia
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
China
India

734.1
55.8
678.2
11.3
27.6
24.5
160.0
61.0
27.3
13.7
130.2
86.5

727.0
54.4
672.6
14.5
28.5
25.0
156.5
63.0
24.0
13.0
130.0
88.0

Change from
2015/16
Percent

-1.0
-2.6
-0.8
28.3
3.3
2.0
-2.2
3.2
-12.0
-5.4
-0.1
1.7

May 10, 2016

May 10, 2016

Thisisreiteratedbythelatest
VegetationHealthIndex,whichshows
conditionsmostlygoodtoexcellent.

May 10, 2016

Knowinglastyearwasarecordgivesuspause
butthataside,theVHIiscurrentlybetterthan
lastyearovermostmajorwheatareas.

May 10, 2016

PercentChange

May 10, 2016

TotalEUWheatProductionChange:
3.51(millionmetrictons)

7
May 10, 2016

Source:

May 10, 2016

May 10, 2016

Inparticular,oneofthedriest
Septembersonrecordimpacted
wheatplantingand
establishment,mostnotablyin
southernandeasternUkraine.

WinterWheat
May 10, 2016

Droughtwaserasedby
heavyNovemberrainfall.

WinterWheat
May 10, 2016

Springtodatehas
featuredmoreofthe
same:near toabove
normalrainfall.

WinterWheat
May 10, 2016

However,cropdevelopment
stagehasbeenaccelerated
byconsistentlywarmer
thannormalweather,
startinginthewinter.

WinterWheat
DataSource:GPCC

May 10, 2016

Thisyear,weareenteringthecriticalperiod
roughlytwoweeksaheadofnormaldueto
persistentwarmerthannormalweather.

Temp/PcpCritical

Temp/PcpCritical

May 10, 2016

Russiaswinterwheatisalsoenteringthecriticalperiod
wellaheadofnormalduetopersistentwarmth.

Temp/PcpCritical

Temp/PcpCritical

May 10, 2016

Inshort,excellentyieldprospectsforRussia
winterwheatareonparwithfavorable
autumnandspringprecipitationandalackof
bittercoldorextremeheat(todate).
WinterwheatyieldprospectsinUkraine have
improvedwithspringrain.Autumndrought
wouldhavemostimpactedplantedareaand
cropemergence.Wheatthatsurvivedthe
wintershouldbeinexcellentshape.
WinterWheat
May 10, 2016

World Wheat Supply and Use

Country or Region

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Million Tons

Beginning stocks
Production
Total Supply
Feed use
Total use
Trade
Ending Stocks

216.5
734.1
950.6
133.9
707.7
166.9
242.9

242.9
727.0
969.9
131.1
712.6
163.9
257.3

Change from
2015/16
Percent

12.2
-1.0
2.0
-2.1
0.7
-1.8
5.9

May 10, 2016

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Change from
2015/16
Percent

Planted area (million acres)

Harvested area (million acres)
Yield (bushels per acre)
Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Total supply
Food use
Seed
Feed and residual
Domestic use
Exports
Total use
Ending stocks
Stocks to use ratio
Average market price

54.6
49.6
47.1
42.8
43.6
46.7
Million bushels
752
978
2,052
1,998
120
130
2,924
3,106
960
963
66
69
140
170
1,166
1,202
780
875
1,946
2,077
978
1,029
Percent
50.2
49.5
Dollars per bushel
4.90
4.50/3.70

-9.3
-9.2
7.2
30.0
-2.6
8.3
6.2
0.3
4.1
21.4
3.1
12.2
6.7
5.2

-16.3
May 10, 2016

World Rice Production

Country or
Region

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Million Tons

World
United States
Foreign
Brazil
Egypt
Bangladesh
Burma
Cambodia
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam

470.5
6.1
464.4
7.6
4.0
34.5
12.2
4.4
145.8
103.0
35.3
7.7
3.3
6.7
11.4
15.8
28.1

480.7
7.3
473.4
8.5
4.0
34.6
12.5
4.7
146.5
105.0
36.6
7.7
3.4
6.9
12.0
17.0
28.5

Change from
2015/16
Percent

2.2
20.1
1.9
11.8
0.0
0.1
2.5
8.0
0.5
1.9
3.7
0.4
3.0
3.0
5.7
7.6
1.4
May 10, 2016

World Rice Supply and Use

Country or
Region

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Million Tons

Beginning stock
Production
Total Supply
Total use
Trade
Ending Stocks

114.4
470.5
584.9
478.4
41.4
106.4

106.4
480.7
587.1
480.5
40.7
106.6

Change from
2015/16
Percent

-7.0
2.2
0.4
0.4
-1.7
0.2

May 10, 2016

U.S. Rice Supply and Demand

Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice
2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Change from
2015/16
Percent

Planted area (million acres)

Harvested area (million acres)
Yield (pounds per acre)
Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Total supply
Domestic use
Exports
Total use
Ending stocks
Stocks to use ratio
Average market price

2.61
3.06
2.58
3.03
7,470
7,618
Million cwt
48.5
43.4
192.3
231.0
23.5
24.0
264.4
298.4
121.0
135.0
100.0
113.0
221.0
248.0
43.4
50.4
Percent
19.6
20.3
Dollars per cwt
12.20/12.60 11.30/12.30

17.2
17.8
2.0
-10.6
20.1
2.1
12.9
11.6
13.0
12.2
16.1

-4.8
May 10, 2016

World Corn Production

Country or Region

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Million Tons

World
United States
Foreign
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
Canada
European Union
Serbia
FSU-12
Ukraine
Russia
South Africa
China
India

968.8
345.5
623.4
27.0
81.0
24.0
13.6
58.0
6.0
40.1
23.3
13.2
6.5
224.6
21.0

1,011.1
366.5
644.5
34.0
82.0
23.5
13.7
64.3
7.0
44.2
26.0
14.0
13.0
218.0
23.0

Change from
2015/16
Percent

4.4
6.1
3.4
25.9
1.2
-2.1
1.1
10.9
16.7
10.0
11.4
6.3
100.0
-2.9
9.5
May 10, 2016

Soybean Production
Brazil
Para

Maranhao

Piaui

Mato Grosso

Rondonia

Tocantins
Bahia

Soy: ~60%
Goias

Soybean Production

Aw: Tropical wet and dry

Mato Grosso
do Sul

Cr: Subtropical Rain

*Average (2005-09)

Minas
Gerais
Sao
Paulo

Paraguay

Minor

Soy: ~40%

Major

*Source: MINAG / IBGE

Parana

Santa
Catarina
Rio Grande
do Sul

Production
Intensity

Soybean crop calendar for most of Brazil & Paraguay

Planting

Flower

Fill
Harvesting
JAN FEB

Agricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook Board

MAR APR MAY JUN

JUL

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

May 10, 2016

2nd Corn Production

Brazil
Para

Maranhao

Piaui

Mato Grosso

Rondonia

Tocantins
Bahia

2nd Corn: ~60%

Goias

2nd Corn Production

Aw: Tropical wet and dry

Mato Grosso
do Sul

Cr: Subtropical Rain

Sao
Paulo

Paraguay

2nd

*Average (2005-09)

Minas
Gerais

Production
Intensity

Minor

Corn: ~40%

Major

*Source: MINAG / IBGE

Parana

Santa
Catarina

2nd Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil

Rio Grande
do Sul

Plant
Harvest
JAN

Agricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook Board

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

May 10, 2016

Cotton Production
Brazil
Para

Maranhao

Piaui

Mato Grosso

Rondonia

Tocantins
Bahia

Cotton: > 95%

Goias

Cotton Production

Aw: Tropical wet and dry

Mato Grosso
do Sul

Cr: Subtropical Rain

*Average (2005-09)

Minas
Gerais
Sao
Paulo

Paraguay

Minor

Cotton: < 5%

Production
Intensity

Major

*Source: MINAG / IBGE

Parana

Cotton crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil

Santa
Catarina
Rio Grande
do Sul

Period of Highest Intensity

Planting

Harvesting
JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

NOV

DEC

Cotton crop calendar for most of Northeastern Brazil

Period of Highest Intensity

Planting

Harvesting
JAN

Agricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook Board

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

May 10, 2016

Brazil: Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

Early May

9
8
7

Mato Grosso

Parana

6
5
4
3
2
1

Parana
Agricultural Weather Assessments
World Agricultural Outlook Board

Jun-18

May-27

May-05

Apr-13

Mar-22

Feb-28

Feb-06

Jan-15

Dec-24

Dec-02

Nov-10

Oct-19

Sep-27

Sep-05

Aug-14

Jul-23

Jul-01

MT
May 10, 2016

2014/15
Average
2015/16

Agricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook Board

May 10, 2016

2015/16

2014/15
Average

Agricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook Board

May 10, 2016

2014/15
2015/16

Agricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook Board

Average

May 10, 2016

2014/15
Average

2015/16

Agricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook Board

May 10, 2016

May 10, 2016

Jan96
Jul96
Jan97
Jul97
Jan98
Jul98
Jan99
Jul99
Jan00
Jul00
Jan01
Jul01
Jan02
Jul02
Jan03
Jul03
Jan04
Jul04
Jan05
Jul05
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
Jul12
Jan13
Jul13
Jan14
Jul14
Jan15
Jul15
Jan16

Chinas Corn Prices Have Fallen With

Support Removal

yuan/mt

2,500
2,300
2,100
1,900
1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500

Jilin,yuan/mt
SupportPrice,yuan/mt

Source: China National Grains and Oilseeds Information Center and USDA.
May 10, 2016

Chinas2016cornareaisforecasttodropforthefirsttimesince2003.
ForeignAgriculturalService
OfficeofGlobalAnalysis
IPADivision

May 10, 2016

ForeignAgriculturalService
OfficeofGlobalAnalysis
IPADivision

May 10, 2016

RecordCroppingAreaExpected
inArgentinaduring2016/17
Millionhectares

34

32

32.99

32.94

33
31.95 31.82

31.30

31.63
31.19

Expectedagronomiccropareasin2016/17.

31
30
29
2010/11

2012/13

2014/15

2016/17F

Cropsincludedforthe2016/17cropareaare:barley,corn,cotton,
millet,oats,peanuts,rapeseed,soybeans,sunflowers,rice,rye,
sorghum,wheat,anddurumwheat.
Largecropareasduring2012/13.

May 10, 2016

Argentina Wheat Harvested Area

Million hectares

6
5

4.85

5.17

4.96
3.60

4.80
3.77

3.50

3
2
1
0
2010/11

2012/13

2014/15

2016/17F

Freeorcheapseed,rotationcrop,winterweedcontrol,noexporttax,and
devaluedArgentinepesowillencouragemorewheatplantings.
May 10, 2016

Argentina Corn Harvested Area

Million hectares

5
4

3.75

4.20

4.00
3.60

3.40

3.50

3.40

3
2
1
0
2010/11

2012/13

2014/15

2016/17F

Pricing,noexporttax,devaluedArgentinepeso,croprotation,weed
controlallencouragecornplanting.
May 10, 2016

Argentina Soybean Harvested Area

Million hectares

21
19.75

20

19.25

19.34

19.40

19.45

19
18.30
18

17.58

17
16
15
2010/11

2012/13

2014/15

2016/17F

Freeorreasonableseed,5percentlowerexporttaxagain,devalued
Argentinepeso,easeofplantingkeepssoyplanted.
May 10, 2016

World Corn Supply and Use

Country or Region

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Million Tons

Beginning stocks
Production
Total Supply
Feed use
Total use
Trade
Ending Stocks

207.9
968.8
1,176.7
600.8
968.9
121.3
207.9

207.9
1,011.1
1,218.9
623.4
1,011.9
132.9
207.0

Change from
2015/16
Percent

0.0
4.4
3.6
3.8
4.4
9.5
-0.4

May 10, 2016

Corn Weather-Adjusted Trend

Yield vs. Actual and Projected

Bu./acre
180

Actual Yield
Weather-Adjusted Trend
May WASDE Projection

170
160

2016AgOutlookForum:168.0
2016 MayWASDE: 168.0

150
140
130
120
110
100
90
2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

80

May 10, 2016

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Change from
2015/16
Percent

Planted area (million acres)

Harvested area (million acres)
Yield (bushels per acre)
Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Total supply
Feed and residual
Food, seed, and industrial
Ethanol
Domestic use
Exports
Total use
Ending stocks
Stocks to use ratio
Average market price

88.0
93.6
80.7
85.9
168.4
168.0
Million bushels
1,731
1,803
13,601
14,430
55
40
15,387
16,273
5,250
5,550
6,610
6,670
5,250
5,300
11,860
12,220
1,725
1,900
13,585
14,120
1,803
2,153
Percent
13.3
15.2
Dollars per bushel
3.50/3.70
3.05/3.65

6.4
6.4
-0.3
4.1
6.1
-27.3
5.8
5.7
0.9
1.0
3.0
10.1
3.9
19.4

-6.9
May 10, 2016

World Soybean Production

Country or
Region

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Million Tons

World
United States
Foreign
Argentina
Brazil
Paraguay
Ukraine
India
China

315.9
106.9
208.9
56.5
99.0
8.8
3.9
7.4
11.8

324.2
103.4
220.8
57.0
103.0
9.0
5.0
11.7
12.2

Change from
2015/16
Percent

2.6
-3.3
5.7
0.9
4.0
2.3
27.2
58.5
3.4

May 10, 2016

Argentina Soybeans
Jujuy

Salta

Formosa

Tucuman
Santiago
del
Estero

Catamarca

Misiones

Chaco

Corrientes

Santa
Fe

La Rioja

* State-Level Production
(as % of total)

Cordoba
Entre
Rios
San
Luis

Buenos
Aires

Cordoba
Buenos Aires
Santa Fe
Entre Rios
Santiago del Estero
Salta
Chaco
Tucuman
La Pampa

29
27
24
7
4
3
3
2
1

Other States

~1

La Pampa

* 2005/06 to 2009/10 Average

Source: SAGPyA

Soybean Production
*Average (2005/06-09/10)

Soybean crop calendar for most of Argentina

PLANT

FLOWER

FILL
HARVEST
JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

Minor
JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

2nd soybean crop is double cropped after winter wheat (harvested May Jun)
Agricultural Weather Assessments
World Agricultural Outlook Board

Production
Intensity

Major

*Source: SAGPyA

May 10, 2016

Vegetative Health Index (4km)

April 1 (Week 13)

2016 - 2015

Agricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook Board

Source: NOAA/NESDIS
May 10, 2016

Percent of Normal Rainfall (%)

April 2016

Temperature Departure from Normal (C)

April 2016
% Normal
Precip

(C)

Soybean crop calendar for most of Argentina

PLANT

FLOWER

Form.

Form.

Salta

Salta

Chaco

FILL

Chaco

Tu.

Tu.
Santiago
del
Estero

Santiago
del
Estero
Corrientes

HARVEST

Corrientes

Santa
Fe

Santa
Fe

Cordoba

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Cordoba

Entre
Rios

Entre
Rios

San
Luis

San
Luis

Corn crop calendar for most of Argentina

La Pampa

SILK

La Pampa

Buenos
Aires

SILK

FILL

* Corn Yields

HARVEST
JAN

Buenos
Aires

PLANT

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

* Soybean Yields

Yields
*Average (2005/06-09/10)

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Stations in
Main Crop Area
Production
Lower

Agricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook Board

Intensity

Higher

*Source: SAGPyA

May 10, 2016

2015/16

2014/15
Average

Wetter than Last Year

Agricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook Board

May 10, 2016

World Soybean Supply and Use

Country or Region

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Million Tons

Beginning stocks
Production
Total Supply
Domestic crush
Total use
Trade
Ending Stocks
Addendum:
Beginning stocks
Argentina plus Brazil
Imports*
China
*From all sources.

Change from
2015/16
Percent

78.1
315.9
393.9
279.4
318.2
132.6
74.3

74.2
324.2
398.5
288.4
328.0
138.3
68.2

-4.9
2.6
1.1
3.2
3.1
4.3
-8.1

51.2

43.1

-15.8

83.0

87.0

4.8
May 10, 2016

Soybean Weather-Adjusted Trend

Yield vs. Actual and Projected
bu/acre

50
Actual Yield
Weather-Adjusted Trend
May WASDE Projection

46

2016AgOutlookForum:46.7
2016 MayWASDE: 46.7

42
38
34

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

26

1988

30

May 10, 2016

LowerSouthAmericanSoybeanStocksOnOct1
ImproveProspectsforU.S.Exports
ChangetoStocks,SuppliesMMT

15
10
5
0
5
10
2013/14

2014/15

SouthAmericaOct1Stocks

2015/16

2016/17

USSupplies

May 10, 2016

U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Change from
2015/16
Percent

Planted area (million acres)

Harvested area (million acres)
Yield (bushels per acre)
Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Total supply
Crush
Seed and residual
Domestic use
Exports
Total use
Ending stocks
Stocks to use ratio
Average market price

82.7
82.2
81.8
81.4
48.0
46.7
Million bushels
191
400
3,929
3,800
30
30
4,150
4,230
1,880
1,915
130
125
2,010
2,040
1,740
1,885
3,750
3,925
400
305
Percent
10.7
7.8
Dollars per bushel
8.85
8.35/9.85

-0.5
-0.5
-2.8
109.9
-3.3
0.0
1.9
1.9
-3.3
1.5
8.3
4.7
-23.9

2.8
May 10, 2016

World Cotton Production

Country or Region

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Million Bales

World
United States
Foreign
Argentina
Brazil
Turkey
Syria
Australia
China
India
Pakistan
Uzbekistan
African Franc Zone

99.5
12.9
86.7
1.0
6.5
2.7
0.3
2.5
23.8
26.8
7.0
3.7
4.5

104.4
14.8
89.6
1.0
6.4
3.0
0.2
2.6
22.5
28.0
9.0
3.8
4.6

Change from
2015/16
Percent

4.8
14.8
3.3
2.5
-1.5
13.2
-27.3
4.0
-5.5
4.5
28.6
2.7
1.8
May 10, 2016

World Cotton Supply and Use

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Million Bales

Beginning stocks
Production
Total Supply
Consumption
Trade
Ending Stocks
Addendum:
China Ending Stocks

Change from
2015/16
Percent

112.5
99.5
212.0
109.0
34.2
102.8

102.8
104.4
207.2
110.8
33.1
96.5

-8.5
4.8
-2.3
1.6
-3.1
-6.2

63.3

56.7

-10.4

May 10, 2016

ChinaCottonStocksDecliningSlowly
Chinastocks

Otherworldstocks

140
Chinastockstouse169%;
worldoutsideChina36%

120

Mil.bales

100
80
60
40
20
0
2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2104/15

2015/16

2016/17
proj.
May 10, 2016

May 10, 2016

U.S.CottonYields/HarvestedAcre
20062016Projected
900
875

lbs./acre

850
825

Projectedyield:
807lbs.

800
775
750
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
proj.

May 10, 2016

U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Change from
2015/16
Percent

Planted area (million acres)

Harvested area (million acres)
Yield (pounds per acre)
Beginning stocks
Imports
Production
Total supply
Mill use
Exports
Total use
Unaccounted
Ending stocks
Stocks/use
Average market price

8.58
9.56
8.07
8.80
766
807
Million bales
3.70
4.00
0.04
0.01
12.89
14.80
16.63
18.81
3.60
3.60
9.00
10.50
12.60
14.10
0.03
0.01
4.00
4.70
Percent
31.7
33.3
Cents per pound
58.0
47.0/67.0

11.4
9.0
5.4
8.1
-75.0
14.8
13.1
0.0
16.7
11.9
0.0
17.5

-1.7
May 10, 2016

U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

1,000 short tons, raw value

Beginning Stocks
Production
Beets
Cane
Imports
TRQ
Re-export
Mexico
High-tier
Total Supply
Exports
Domestic deliveries
Total use
Ending stocks

1,815
8,933
5,064
3,869
3,231
1,617
300
1,299
15
13,978
100
12,135
12,235
1,743

1,743
8,710
5,090
3,620
3,479
1,531
175
1,758
15
13,932
50
12,225
12,275
1,657

Change from
2015/16
Percent

-4.0
-2.5
0.5
-6.4
7.7
-5.3
-41.7
35.4
0.0
-0.3
-50.0
0.7
0.3
-4.9

Percent

Stocks/use ratio

14.2

13.5
May 10, 2016

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Thousand MT, raw value

Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Domestic use
Exports
Total Use
Ending stocks

811
6,184
70
7,065
4,586
1,121
5,707
1,358

1,358
6,100
10
7,468
4,652
1,515
6,167
1,301

Change from
2015/16
Percent

67.5
-1.4
-85.7
5.7
1.4
35.1
8.1
-4.2

May 10, 2016

U.S. Meat Production and Prices

Production
Beef
Pork
Broilers
Turkey
Total meat
Prices
Steers
Hogs
Broilers
Turkey

2016
2017
forecast
forecast
Billion pounds
24.81
25.79
24.99
25.64
41.04
42.05
5.96
6.13
97.58
100.40
Dollars/cwt
126.45
123.25
47.41
43.75
Cents/lb
88.2
87.8
115.9
115.5

Change from
2016
Percent
4.0
2.6
2.5
2.8
2.9

-2.5
-7.7
-0.5
-0.4

May 10, 2016

U.S. Meat Trade

Million Pounds

2016
forecast

Beef
Pork
Broilers
Turkey
Mature Chickens
Total meat
Beef

2017
forecast

Exports
2,464
2,580
5,198
5,300
6,723
6,905
605
670
138
140
15,136
15,605
Imports
2,893
2,550

Change from
2016
Percent
4.7
2.0
2.7
10.7
1.4
3.1
-11.9

May 10, 2016

U.S. Milk Supply and Demand

Production
Fat Basis
Imports
Commercial use
Exports
Skim-solid Basis
Imports
Commercial use
Exports

2016
2017
Change from
forecast
forecast
2016
Billion pounds
Percent
212.4
215.2
1.3
7.7
210.7
8.9

7.0
213.0
9.1

-8.7
1.1
2.4

6.37
181.33
36.24

6.15
183.20
37.57

-3.4
1.0
3.7

May 10, 2016

U.S. Dairy Product Prices

Product prices
Cheese
Butter
Nonfat dry milk
Dry whey
Class prices
Class III
Class IV
All milk

2016
2017
Change from
forecast
forecast
2016
Dollars/pound
Percent
1.48
1.59
7.5
2.03
1.95
-4.0
0.76
0.89
16.9
0.25
0.27
8.9
Dollars/cwt
13.40
14.55
12.95
13.70
14.85
15.75

8.6
5.8
6.1
May 10, 2016

U.S. Production Summary

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Change from
2015/16
Percent

Crops and Products

Wheat (Million bu)
Rice (Million cwt)
Corn (Million bu)
Sorghum (Million bu)
Barley (Million bu)
Oats (Million bu)
Soybeans (Million bu)
Soybean oil (Million lbs)
Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.)
Cotton (Million bales)
Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value)

2,052
192.3
13,601
597
214
90
3,929
21,900
44,440
12.89
8,933

1,998
231.0
14,430
407
193
68
3,800
22,120
45,475
14.80
8,710

-2.6
20.1
6.1
-31.8
-9.9
-24.1
-3.3
1.0
2.3
14.8
-2.5

Milk (Billion lbs)

212.4

215.2

1.3

Meat (Billion lbs)

Beef
Pork
Broilers
Turkey
Total Meat

24.81
24.99
41.04
5.96
97.58

25.79
25.64
42.05
6.13
100.40

4.0
2.6
2.5
2.8
2.9
May 10, 2016

Domestic Demand Summary

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Change from
2015/16
Percent

Crops and Products

Wheat (Million bu)
Rice (Million cwt)
Corn (Million bu)
Sorghum (Million bu)
Barley (Million bu)
Oats (Million bu)
Soybeans (Million bu)
Soybean oil (Million lbs)
Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.)
Cotton (Million bales)
Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value)

1,166
121.0
11,860
240
203
172
2,010
19,600
33,300
3.60
12,135

1,202
135.0
12,220
200
203
168
2,040
20,300
33,800
3.60
12,225

3.1
11.6
3.0
-16.7
0.2
-2.0
1.5
3.6
1.5
0.0
0.7

Milk (Billion lbs, fat basis)

210.7

213.0

1.1

Meat (Billion lbs)

Beef
Pork
Broilers
Turkey
Total meat

25.36
20.96
34.19
5.35
86.74

25.85
21.51
34.77
5.50
88.46

2.0
2.6
1.7
2.7
2.0
May 10, 2016

U.S. Export Summary

2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Change from
2015/16
Percent

Crops and products

Wheat (Million bu)
Rice (Million cwt)
Corn (Million bu)
Sorghum (Million bu)
Barley (Million bu)
Soybeans (Million bu)
Soybean oil (Million lbs)
Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.)
Cotton (Million bales)

780
100.0
1,725
315
13
1,740
2,100
11,500
9.00

875
113.0
1,900
220
15
1,885
2,400
12,000
10.50

12.2
13.0
10.1
-30.2
15.4
8.3
14.3
4.3
16.7

Meat (Million lbs)

Beef
Pork
Broilers
Turkey
Mature Chickens
Total meat

2,464
5,198
6,723
605
138
15,136

2,580
5,300
6,905
670
140
15,605

4.7
2.0
2.7
10.7
1.4
3.1
May 10, 2016

Price Summary
2015/16
estimate

2016/17
forecast

Change from
2015/16
Percent

Crops and products

Wheat ($/bu)
Rice ($/cwt)
Corn ($/bu)
Soybeans ($/bu)
Soybean oil (/lb)
Soybean meal ($/s.t.)
Cotton (/lb)
Livestock
Steers ($/cwt)
Hogs ($/cwt)
Broilers (/lb)
Turkeys (/lb)
Eggs (/dozen)
Dairy products
Cheese
Butter
Nonfat dry milk
Dry whey
Milk classes
Class III ($/cwt)
Class IV ($/cwt)
All milk ($/cwt)

4.90
12.40
3.60
8.85
30.00
310.00
58.00

4.10
11.80
3.35
9.10
32.00
320.00
57.00

-16.3
-4.8
-6.9
2.8
6.7
3.2
-1.7

126.5
47.4
88.2
115.9
97.9

123.3
43.8
87.8
115.5
113.0

-2.5
-7.7
-0.5
-0.4
15.5

1.48
2.03
0.76
0.25

1.59
1.95
0.89
0.27

7.5
-4.0
16.9
8.9

13.40
12.95
14.85

14.55
13.70
15.75

8.6
5.8
6.1

May 10, 2016