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Magazine

HowCompaniesLearnYourSecrets
ByCHARLESDUHIGG FEB.16,2012

AndrewPolehadjuststartedworkingasastatisticianforTargetin2002,when
twocolleaguesfromthemarketingdepartmentstoppedbyhisdesktoaskanodd
question:Ifwewantedtofigureoutifacustomerispregnant,evenifshedidnt
wantustoknow,canyoudothat?
Polehasamastersdegreeinstatisticsandanotherineconomics,andhas
beenobsessedwiththeintersectionofdataandhumanbehaviormostofhislife.
HisparentswereteachersinNorthDakota,andwhileotherkidsweregoingto4
H,Polewasdoingalgebraandwritingcomputerprograms.Thestereotypeofa
mathnerdistrue,hetoldmewhenIspokewithhimlastyear.Ikindoflike
goingoutandevangelizinganalytics.
AsthemarketersexplainedtoPoleandasPolelaterexplainedtome,back
whenwewerestillspeakingandbeforeTargettoldhimtostopnewparentsare
aretailersholygrail.Mostshoppersdontbuyeverythingtheyneedatonestore.
Instead,theybuygroceriesatthegrocerystoreandtoysatthetoystore,andthey
visitTargetonlywhentheyneedcertainitemstheyassociatewithTarget
cleaningsupplies,say,ornewsocksorasixmonthsupplyoftoiletpaper.But
Targetsellseverythingfrommilktostuffedanimalstolawnfurnitureto
electronics,sooneofthecompanysprimarygoalsisconvincingcustomersthat
theonlystoretheyneedisTarget.Butitsatoughmessagetogetacross,even
withthemostingeniousadcampaigns,becauseonceconsumersshoppinghabits
areingrained,itsincrediblydifficulttochangethem.
Thereare,however,somebriefperiodsinapersonslifewhenoldroutines
fallapartandbuyinghabitsaresuddenlyinflux.Oneofthosemomentsthe
moment,reallyisrightaroundthebirthofachild,whenparentsareexhausted

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andoverwhelmedandtheirshoppingpatternsandbrandloyaltiesareupfor
grabs.ButasTargetsmarketersexplainedtoPole,timingiseverything.Because
birthrecordsareusuallypublic,themomentacouplehaveanewbaby,theyare
almostinstantaneouslybarragedwithoffersandincentivesandadvertisements
fromallsortsofcompanies.Whichmeansthatthekeyistoreachthemearlier,
beforeanyotherretailersknowababyisontheway.Specifically,themarketers
saidtheywantedtosendspeciallydesignedadstowomenintheirsecond
trimester,whichiswhenmostexpectantmothersbeginbuyingallsortsofnew
things,likeprenatalvitaminsandmaternityclothing.Canyougiveusalist?the
marketersasked.
Weknewthatifwecouldidentifythemintheirsecondtrimester,theresagood
chancewecouldcapturethemforyears,Poletoldme.Assoonaswegetthem
buyingdiapersfromus,theyregoingtostartbuyingeverythingelsetoo.Ifyoure
rushingthroughthestore,lookingforbottles,andyoupassorangejuice,youll
grabacarton.Oh,andtheresthatnewDVDIwant.Soon,youllbebuyingcereal
andpapertowelsfromus,andkeepcomingback.
ThedesiretocollectinformationoncustomersisnotnewforTargetorany
otherlargeretailer,ofcourse.Fordecades,Targethascollectedvastamountsof
dataoneverypersonwhoregularlywalksintooneofitsstores.Whenever
possible,Targetassignseachshopperauniquecodeknowninternallyasthe
GuestIDnumberthatkeepstabsoneverythingtheybuy.Ifyouuseacredit
cardoracoupon,orfilloutasurvey,ormailinarefund,orcallthecustomerhelp
line,oropenanemailwevesentyouorvisitourWebsite,wellrecorditandlink
ittoyourGuestID,Polesaid.Wewanttoknoweverythingwecan.
AlsolinkedtoyourGuestIDisdemographicinformationlikeyourage,
whetheryouaremarriedandhavekids,whichpartoftownyoulivein,howlong
ittakesyoutodrivetothestore,yourestimatedsalary,whetheryouvemoved
recently,whatcreditcardsyoucarryinyourwalletandwhatWebsitesyouvisit.
Targetcanbuydataaboutyourethnicity,jobhistory,themagazinesyouread,if
youveeverdeclaredbankruptcyorgotdivorced,theyearyoubought(orlost)
yourhouse,whereyouwenttocollege,whatkindsoftopicsyoutalkaboutonline,
whetheryouprefercertainbrandsofcoffee,papertowels,cerealorapplesauce,
yourpoliticalleanings,readinghabits,charitablegivingandthenumberofcars
youown.(Inastatement,Targetdeclinedtoidentifywhatdemographic

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informationitcollectsorpurchases.)Allthatinformationismeaningless,
however,withoutsomeonetoanalyzeandmakesenseofit.ThatswhereAndrew
PoleandthedozensofothermembersofTargetsGuestMarketingAnalytics
departmentcomein.
Almosteverymajorretailer,fromgrocerychainstoinvestmentbankstothe
U.S.PostalService,hasapredictiveanalyticsdepartmentdevotedto
understandingnotjustconsumersshoppinghabitsbutalsotheirpersonalhabits,
soastomoreefficientlymarkettothem.ButTargethasalwaysbeenoneofthe
smartestatthis,saysEricSiegel,aconsultantandthechairmanofaconference
calledPredictiveAnalyticsWorld.Werelivingthroughagoldenageof
behavioralresearch.Itsamazinghowmuchwecanfigureoutabouthowpeople
thinknow.
ThereasonTargetcansnooponourshoppinghabitsisthat,overthepast
twodecades,thescienceofhabitformationhasbecomeamajorfieldofresearch
inneurologyandpsychologydepartmentsathundredsofmajormedicalcenters
anduniversities,aswellasinsideextremelywellfinancedcorporatelabs.Itslike
anarmsracetohirestatisticiansnowadays,saidAndreasWeigend,theformer
chiefscientistatAmazon.com.Mathematiciansaresuddenlysexy.Astheability
toanalyzedatahasgrownmoreandmorefinegrained,thepushtounderstand
howdailyhabitsinfluenceourdecisionshasbecomeoneofthemostexciting
topicsinclinicalresearch,eventhoughmostofusarehardlyawarethosepatterns
exist.OnestudyfromDukeUniversityestimatedthathabits,ratherthan
consciousdecisionmaking,shape45percentofthechoiceswemakeeveryday,
andrecentdiscoverieshavebeguntochangeeverythingfromthewaywethink
aboutdietingtohowdoctorsconceivetreatmentsforanxiety,depressionand
addictions.
Thisresearchisalsotransformingourunderstandingofhowhabitsfunction
acrossorganizationsandsocieties.AfootballcoachnamedTonyDungypropelled
oneoftheworstteamsintheN.F.L.totheSuperBowlbyfocusingonhowhis
playershabituallyreactedtoonfieldcues.BeforehebecameTreasurysecretary,
PaulONeilloverhauledastumblingconglomerate,Alcoa,andturneditintoatop
performerintheDowJonesbyrelentlesslyattackingonehabitaspecific
approachtoworkersafetywhichinturncausedacompanywide
transformation.TheObamacampaignhashiredahabitspecialistasitschief

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scientisttofigureouthowtotriggernewvotingpatternsamongdifferent
constituencies.
Researchershavefiguredouthowtostoppeoplefromhabituallyovereating
andbitingtheirnails.Theycanexplainwhysomeofusautomaticallygoforajog
everymorningandaremoreproductiveatwork,whileothersoversleepand
procrastinate.Thereisacalculus,itturnsout,formasteringoursubconscious
urges.ForcompanieslikeTarget,theexhaustiverenderingofourconsciousand
unconsciouspatternsintodatasetsandalgorithmshasrevolutionizedwhatthey
knowaboutusand,therefore,howpreciselytheycansell.
Insidethebrainandcognitivesciencesdepartmentofthe
MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyarewhat,tothecasualobserver,looklike
dollhouseversionsofsurgicaltheaters.Thereareroomswithtinyscalpels,small
drillsandminiaturesaws.Eventheoperatingtablesarepetite,asifpreparedfor
7yearoldsurgeons.InsidethoseshrunkenO.R.s,neurologistscutintotheskulls
ofanesthetizedrats,implantingtinysensorsthatrecordthesmallestchangesin
theactivityoftheirbrains.
AnM.I.T.neuroscientistnamedAnnGraybieltoldmethatsheandher
colleaguesbeganexploringhabitsmorethanadecadeagobyputtingtheirwired
ratsintoaTshapedmazewithchocolateatoneend.Themazewasstructuredso
thateachanimalwaspositionedbehindabarrierthatopenedafteraloudclick.
Thefirsttimearatwasplacedinthemaze,itwouldusuallywanderslowlyupand
downthecenteraisleafterthebarrierslidaway,sniffingincornersand
scratchingatwalls.Itappearedtosmellthechocolatebutcouldntfigureouthow
tofindit.Therewasnodiscerniblepatternintheratsmeanderingsandno
indicationitwasworkinghardtofindthetreat.
Theprobesintheratsheads,however,toldadifferentstory.Whileeach
animalwanderedthroughthemaze,itsbrainwasworkingfuriously.Everytimea
ratsniffedtheairorscratchedawall,theneurosensorsinsidetheanimalshead
explodedwithactivity.Asthescientistsrepeatedtheexperiment,againandagain,
theratseventuallystoppedsniffingcornersandmakingwrongturnsandbeganto
zipthroughthemazewithmoreandmorespeed.Andwithintheirbrains,
somethingunexpectedoccurred:aseachratlearnedhowtocompletethemaze
morequickly,itsmentalactivitydecreased.Asthepathbecamemoreandmore
automaticasitbecameahabittheratsstartedthinkinglessandless.

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Thisprocess,inwhichthebrainconvertsasequenceofactionsintoan
automaticroutine,iscalledchunking.Therearedozens,ifnothundreds,of
behavioralchunkswerelyoneveryday.Somearesimple:youautomaticallyput
toothpasteonyourtoothbrushbeforestickingitinyourmouth.Some,like
makingthekidslunch,arealittlemorecomplex.Stillothersaresocomplicated
thatitsremarkabletorealizethatahabitcouldhaveemergedatall.
Takebackingyourcaroutofthedriveway.Whenyoufirstlearnedtodrive,
thatactrequiredamajordoseofconcentration,andforgoodreason:itinvolves
peeringintotherearviewandsidemirrorsandcheckingforobstacles,putting
yourfootonthebrake,movingthegearshiftintoreverse,removingyourfoot
fromthebrake,estimatingthedistancebetweenthegarageandthestreetwhile
keepingthewheelsaligned,calculatinghowimagesinthemirrorstranslateinto
actualdistances,allwhileapplyingdifferingamountsofpressuretothegaspedal
andbrake.
Now,youperformthatseriesofactionseverytimeyoupullintothestreet
withoutthinkingverymuch.Yourbrainhaschunkedlargepartsofit.Lefttoits
owndevices,thebrainwilltrytomakealmostanyrepeatedbehaviorintoahabit,
becausehabitsallowourmindstoconserveeffort.Butconservingmentalenergy
istricky,becauseifourbrainspowerdownatthewrongmoment,wemightfailto
noticesomethingimportant,likeachildridingherbikedownthesidewalkora
speedingcarcomingdownthestreet.Sowevedevisedacleversystemto
determinewhentoletahabittakeover.Itssomethingthathappenswhenevera
chunkofbehaviorstartsorendsandithelpstoexplainwhyhabitsareso
difficulttochangeoncetheyreformed,despiteourbestintentions.
Tounderstandthisalittlemoreclearly,consideragainthechocolateseeking
rats.WhatGraybielandhercolleaguesfoundwasthat,astheabilitytonavigate
themazebecamehabitual,thereweretwospikesintheratsbrainactivityonce
atthebeginningofthemaze,whentheratheardtheclickrightbeforethebarrier
slidaway,andonceattheend,whentheratfoundthechocolate.Thosespikes
showwhentheratsbrainswerefullyengaged,andthedipinneuralactivity
betweenthespikesshowedwhenthehabittookover.Frombehindthepartition,
theratwasntsurewhatwaitedontheotherside,untilitheardtheclick,whichit
hadcometoassociatewiththemaze.Onceitheardthatsound,itknewtousethe
mazehabit,anditsbrainactivitydecreased.Thenattheendoftheroutine,

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whentherewardappeared,thebrainshookitselfawakeagainandthechocolate
signaledtotheratthatthisparticularhabitwasworthremembering,andthe
neurologicalpathwaywascarvedthatmuchdeeper.
Theprocesswithinourbrainsthatcreateshabitsisathreesteploop.First,
thereisacue,atriggerthattellsyourbraintogointoautomaticmodeandwhich
habittouse.Thenthereistheroutine,whichcanbephysicalormentalor
emotional.Finally,thereisareward,whichhelpsyourbrainfigureoutifthis
particularloopisworthrememberingforthefuture.Overtime,thisloopcue,
routine,rewardcue,routine,rewardbecomesmoreandmoreautomatic.The
cueandrewardbecomeneurologicallyintertwineduntilasenseofcraving
emerges.Whatsuniqueaboutcuesandrewards,however,ishowsubtletheycan
be.NeurologicalstudiesliketheonesinGraybielslabhaverevealedthatsome
cuesspanjustmilliseconds.Andrewardscanrangefromtheobvious(likethe
sugarrushthatamorningdoughnuthabitprovides)totheinfinitesimal(likethe
barelynoticeablebutmeasurablesenseofreliefthebrainexperiencesafter
successfullynavigatingthedriveway).Mostcuesandrewards,infact,happenso
quicklyandaresoslightthatwearehardlyawareofthematall.Butourneural
systemsnoticeandusethemtobuildautomaticbehaviors.
Habitsarentdestinytheycanbeignored,changedorreplaced.Butits
alsotruethatoncetheloopisestablishedandahabitemerges,yourbrainstops
fullyparticipatingindecisionmaking.Sounlessyoudeliberatelyfightahabit
unlessyoufindnewcuesandrewardstheoldpatternwillunfoldautomatically.
Wevedoneexperimentswherewetrainedratstorundownamazeuntilit
wasahabit,andthenweextinguishedthehabitbychangingtheplacementofthe
reward,Graybieltoldme.Thenoneday,wellputtherewardintheoldplace
andputintheratand,bygolly,theoldhabitwillreemergerightaway.Habits
neverreallydisappear.
Luckily,simplyunderstandinghowhabitsworkmakesthemeasierto
control.Take,forinstance,aseriesofstudiesconductedafewyearsagoat
ColumbiaUniversityandtheUniversityofAlberta.Researcherswantedto
understandhowexercisehabitsemerge.Inoneproject,256membersofahealth
insuranceplanwereinvitedtoclassesstressingtheimportanceofexercise.Half
theparticipantsreceivedanextralessononthetheoriesofhabitformation(the

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structureofthehabitloop)andwereaskedtoidentifycuesandrewardsthat
mighthelpthemdevelopexerciseroutines.
Theresultsweredramatic.Overthenextfourmonths,thoseparticipants
whodeliberatelyidentifiedcuesandrewardsspenttwiceasmuchtimeexercising
astheirpeers.Otherstudieshaveyieldedsimilarresults.Accordingtoanother
recentpaper,ifyouwanttostartrunninginthemorning,itsessentialthatyou
chooseasimplecue(likealwaysputtingonyoursneakersbeforebreakfastor
leavingyourrunningclothesnexttoyourbed)andaclearreward(likeamidday
treatoreventhesenseofaccomplishmentthatcomesfromrituallyrecording
yourmilesinalogbook).Afterawhile,yourbrainwillstartanticipatingthat
rewardcravingthetreatorthefeelingofaccomplishmentandtherewillbea
measurableneurologicalimpulsetolaceupyourjoggingshoeseachmorning.
Ourrelationshiptoemailoperatesonthesameprinciple.Whenacomputer
chimesorasmartphonevibrateswithanewmessage,thebrainstarts
anticipatingtheneurologicalpleasure(evenifwedontrecognizeitassuch)
thatclickingontheemailandreadingitprovides.Thatexpectation,if
unsatisfied,canbuilduntilyoufindyourselfmovedtodistractionbythethought
ofanemailsittingthereunreadevenifyouknow,rationally,itsmostlikely
notimportant.Ontheotherhand,onceyouremovethecuebydisablingthe
buzzingofyourphoneorthechimingofyourcomputer,thecravingisnever
triggered,andyoullfind,overtime,thatyoureabletoworkproductivelyforlong
stretcheswithoutcheckingyourinbox.
Someofthemostambitioushabitexperimentshavebeenconductedby
corporateAmerica.Tounderstandwhyexecutivesaresoentrancedbythis
science,considerhowoneoftheworldslargestcompanies,Procter&Gamble,
usedhabitinsightstoturnafailingproductintooneofitsbiggestsellers.P.&G.
isthecorporatebehemothbehindawholerangeofproducts,fromDownyfabric
softenertoBountypapertowelstoDuracellbatteriesanddozensofother
householdbrands.Inthemid1990s,P.&G.sexecutivesbeganasecretprojectto
createanewproductthatcoulderadicatebadsmells.P.&G.spentmillions
developingacolorless,cheaptomanufactureliquidthatcouldbesprayedona
smokyblouse,stinkycouch,oldjacketorstainedcarinteriorandmakeit
odorless.InordertomarkettheproductFebrezethecompanyformeda
teamthatincludedaformerWallStreetmathematiciannamedDrakeStimson

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andhabitspecialists,whosejobwastomakesurethetelevisioncommercials,
whichtheytestedinPhoenix,SaltLakeCityandBoise,Idaho,accentuatedthe
productscuesandrewardsjustright.
Thefirstadshowedawomancomplainingaboutthesmokingsectionofa
restaurant.Wheneversheeatsthere,shesays,herjacketsmellslikesmoke.A
friendtellsherthatifsheusesFebreze,itwilleliminatetheodor.Thecueinthe
adisclear:theharshsmellofcigarettesmoke.Thereward:odoreliminatedfrom
clothes.Thesecondadfeaturedawomanworryingaboutherdog,Sophie,who
alwayssitsonthecouch.SophiewillalwayssmelllikeSophie,shesays,butwith
Febreze,nowmyfurnituredoesnthaveto.Theadswereputinheavyrotation.
Thenthemarketerssatback,anticipatinghowtheywouldspendtheirbonuses.A
weekpassed.Thentwo.Amonth.Twomonths.Salesstartedsmallandgot
smaller.Febrezewasadud.
Thepanickedmarketingteamcanvassedconsumersandconductedindepth
interviewstofigureoutwhatwasgoingwrong,Stimsonrecalled.Theirfirst
inklingcamewhentheyvisitedawomanshomeoutsidePhoenix.Thehousewas
cleanandorganized.Shewassomethingofaneatfreak,thewomanexplained.
ButwhenP.&G.sscientistswalkedintoherlivingroom,whereherninecats
spentmostoftheirtime,thescentwassooverpoweringthatoneofthemgagged.
AccordingtoStimson,wholedtheFebrezeteam,aresearcheraskedthe
woman,Whatdoyoudoaboutthecatsmell?
Itsusuallynotaproblem,shesaid.
Doyousmellitnow?
No,shesaid.Isntitwonderful?Theyhardlysmellatall!
Asimilarsceneplayedoutindozensofothersmellyhomes.Thereason
Febrezewasntselling,themarketersrealized,wasthatpeoplecouldntdetect
mostofthebadsmellsintheirlives.Ifyoulivewithninecats,youbecome
desensitizedtotheirscents.Ifyousmokecigarettes,eventuallyyoudontsmell
smokeanymore.Eventhestrongestodorsfadewithconstantexposure.Thats
whyFebrezewasafailure.Theproductscuethebadsmellsthatweresupposed
totriggerdailyusewashiddenfromthepeoplewhoneededitthemost.And

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Febrezesreward(anodorlesshome)wasmeaninglesstosomeonewhocouldnt
smelloffensivescentsinthefirstplace.
P.&G.employedaHarvardBusinessSchoolprofessortoanalyzeFebrezes
adcampaigns.Theycollectedhoursoffootageofpeoplecleaningtheirhomesand
watchedtapeaftertape,lookingforcluesthatmighthelpthemconnectFebreze
topeoplesdailyhabits.Whenthatdidntrevealanything,theywentintothefield
andconductedmoreinterviews.Abreakthroughcamewhentheyvisitedawoman
inasuburbnearScottsdale,Ariz.,whowasinher40swithfourchildren.Her
housewasclean,thoughnotcompulsivelytidy,anddidntappeartohaveany
odorproblemstherewerenopetsorsmokers.Tothesurpriseofeveryone,she
lovedFebreze.
Iuseiteveryday,shesaid.
Whatsmellsareyoutryingtogetridof?aresearcherasked.
Idontreallyuseitforspecificsmells,thewomansaid.Iuseitfornormal
cleaningacoupleofsprayswhenImdoneinaroom.
Theresearchersfollowedheraroundasshetidiedthehouse.Inthebedroom,
shemadeherbed,tightenedthesheetscorners,thensprayedthecomforterwith
Febreze.Inthelivingroom,shevacuumed,pickedupthechildrensshoes,
straightenedthecoffeetable,thensprayedFebrezeonthefreshlycleanedcarpet.
Itsnice,youknow?shesaid.Sprayingfeelslikealittleminicelebration
whenImdonewitharoom.Attherateshewasgoing,theteamestimated,she
wouldemptyabottleofFebrezeeverytwoweeks.
WhentheygotbacktoP.&G.sheadquarters,theresearcherswatchedtheir
videotapesagain.Nowtheyknewwhattolookforandsawtheirmistakeinscene
afterscene.Cleaninghasitsownhabitloopsthatalreadyexist.Inonevideo,
whenawomanwalkedintoadirtyroom(cue),shestartedsweepingandpicking
uptoys(routine),thensheexaminedtheroomandsmiledwhenshewasdone
(reward).Inanother,awomanscowledatherunmadebed(cue),proceededto
straightentheblanketsandcomforter(routine)andthensighedassheranher
handsoverthefreshlyplumpedpillows(reward).P.&G.hadbeentryingtocreate
awholenewhabitwithFebreze,butwhattheyreallyneededtodowaspiggyback
onhabitloopsthatwerealreadyinplace.Themarketersneededtoposition

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Febrezeassomethingthatcameattheendofthecleaningritual,thereward,
ratherthanasawholenewcleaningroutine.
Thecompanyprintednewadsshowingopenwindowsandgustsoffreshair.
MoreperfumewasaddedtotheFebrezeformula,sothatinsteadofmerely
neutralizingodors,thesprayhaditsowndistinctscent.Televisioncommercials
werefilmedofwomen,havingfinishedtheircleaningroutine,usingFebrezeto
spritzfreshlymadebedsandjustlaunderedclothing.Eachadwasdesignedto
appealtothehabitloop:whenyouseeafreshlycleanedroom(cue),pullout
Febreze(routine)andenjoyasmellthatsaysyouvedoneagreatjob(reward).
Whenyoufinishmakingabed(cue),spritzFebreze(routine)andbreathea
sweet,contentedsigh(reward).Febreze,theadsimplied,wasapleasanttreat,not
areminderthatyourhomestinks.
AndsoFebreze,aproductoriginallyconceivedasarevolutionarywayto
destroyodors,becameanairfreshenerusedoncethingsarealreadyclean.The
Febrezerevampoccurredinthesummerof1998.Withintwomonths,sales
doubled.Ayearlater,theproductbroughtin$230million.SincethenFebreze
hasspawneddozensofspinoffsairfresheners,candlesandlaundrydetergents
thatnowaccountforsalesofmorethan$1billionayear.Eventually,P.&G.
beganmentioningtocustomersthat,inadditiontosmellingsweet,Febrezecan
actuallykillbadodors.Todayitsoneofthetopsellingproductsintheworld.
AndrewPolewashiredbyTargettousethesamekindsofinsightsinto
consumershabitstoexpandTargetssales.Hisassignmentwastoanalyzeallthe
cueroutinerewardloopsamongshoppersandhelpthecompanyfigureouthow
toexploitthem.Muchofhisdepartmentsworkwasstraightforward:findthe
customerswhohavechildrenandsendthemcatalogsthatfeaturetoysbefore
Christmas.LookforshopperswhohabituallypurchaseswimsuitsinApriland
sendthemcouponsforsunscreeninJulyanddietbooksinDecember.ButPoles
mostimportantassignmentwastoidentifythoseuniquemomentsinconsumers
liveswhentheirshoppinghabitsbecomeparticularlyflexibleandtheright
advertisementorcouponwouldcausethemtobeginspendinginnewways.
Inthe1980s,ateamofresearchersledbyaU.C.L.A.professornamedAlan
Andreasenundertookastudyofpeoplesmostmundanepurchases,likesoap,
toothpaste,trashbagsandtoiletpaper.Theylearnedthatmostshopperspaid
almostnoattentiontohowtheyboughttheseproducts,thatthepurchases

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occurredhabitually,withoutanycomplexdecisionmaking.Whichmeantitwas
hardformarketers,despitetheirdisplaysandcouponsandproductpromotions,
topersuadeshopperstochange.
Butwhensomecustomersweregoingthroughamajorlifeevent,like
graduatingfromcollegeorgettinganewjobormovingtoanewtown,their
shoppinghabitsbecameflexibleinwaysthatwerebothpredictableandpotential
goldminesforretailers.Thestudyfoundthatwhensomeonemarries,heorsheis
morelikelytostartbuyinganewtypeofcoffee.Whenacouplemoveintoanew
house,theyremoreapttopurchaseadifferentkindofcereal.Whentheydivorce,
theresanincreasedchancetheyllstartbuyingdifferentbrandsofbeer.
Consumersgoingthroughmajorlifeeventsoftendontnotice,orcare,that
theirshoppinghabitshaveshifted,butretailersnotice,andtheycarequiteabit.
Atthoseuniquemoments,Andreasenwrote,customersarevulnerableto
interventionbymarketers.Inotherwords,apreciselytimedadvertisement,sent
toarecentdivorceeornewhomebuyer,canchangesomeonesshoppingpatterns
foryears.
Andamonglifeevents,nonearemoreimportantthanthearrivalofababy.
Atthatmoment,newparentshabitsaremoreflexiblethanatalmostanyother
timeintheiradultlives.Ifcompaniescanidentifypregnantshoppers,theycan
earnmillions.
Theonlyproblemisthatidentifyingpregnantcustomersisharderthanit
sounds.Targethasababyshowerregistry,andPolestartedthere,observinghow
shoppinghabitschangedasawomanapproachedherduedate,whichwomenon
theregistryhadwillinglydisclosed.Herantestaftertest,analyzingthedata,and
beforelongsomeusefulpatternsemerged.Lotions,forexample.Lotsofpeople
buylotion,butoneofPolescolleaguesnoticedthatwomenonthebabyregistry
werebuyinglargerquantitiesofunscentedlotionaroundthebeginningoftheir
secondtrimester.Anotheranalystnotedthatsometimeinthefirst20weeks,
pregnantwomenloadeduponsupplementslikecalcium,magnesiumandzinc.
Manyshopperspurchasesoapandcottonballs,butwhensomeonesuddenly
startsbuyinglotsofscentfreesoapandextrabigbagsofcottonballs,inaddition
tohandsanitizersandwashcloths,itsignalstheycouldbegettingclosetotheir
deliverydate.

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AsPolescomputerscrawledthroughthedata,hewasabletoidentifyabout
25productsthat,whenanalyzedtogether,allowedhimtoassigneachshoppera
pregnancypredictionscore.Moreimportant,hecouldalsoestimateherdue
datetowithinasmallwindow,soTargetcouldsendcouponstimedtovery
specificstagesofherpregnancy.
OneTargetemployeeIspoketoprovidedahypotheticalexample.Takea
fictionalTargetshoppernamedJennyWard,whois23,livesinAtlantaandin
Marchboughtcocoabutterlotion,apurselargeenoughtodoubleasadiaperbag,
zincandmagnesiumsupplementsandabrightbluerug.Theres,say,an87
percentchancethatshespregnantandthatherdeliverydateissometimeinlate
August.Whatsmore,becauseofthedataattachedtoherGuestIDnumber,
TargetknowshowtotriggerJennyshabits.Theyknowthatifshereceivesa
couponviaemail,itwillmostlikelycuehertobuyonline.Theyknowthatifshe
receivesanadinthemailonFriday,shefrequentlyusesitonaweekendtripto
thestore.Andtheyknowthatiftheyrewardherwithaprintedreceiptthat
entitleshertoafreecupofStarbuckscoffee,shelluseitwhenshecomesback
again.
Inthepast,thatknowledgehadlimitedvalue.Afterall,Jennypurchased
onlycleaningsuppliesatTarget,andtherewereonlysomanypsychological
buttonsthecompanycouldpush.Butnowthatsheispregnant,everythingisup
forgrabs.InadditiontotriggeringJennyshabitstobuymorecleaningproducts,
theycanalsostartincludingoffersforanarrayofproducts,somemoreobvious
thanothers,thatawomanatherstageofpregnancymightneed.
PoleappliedhisprogramtoeveryregularfemaleshopperinTargetsnational
databaseandsoonhadalistoftensofthousandsofwomenwhoweremostlikely
pregnant.IftheycouldenticethosewomenortheirhusbandstovisitTargetand
buybabyrelatedproducts,thecompanyscueroutinerewardcalculatorscould
kickinandstartpushingthemtobuygroceries,bathingsuits,toysandclothing,
aswell.WhenPolesharedhislistwiththemarketers,hesaid,theywereecstatic.
Soon,Polewasgettinginvitedtomeetingsabovehispaygrade.Eventuallyhis
paygradewentup.
Atwhichpointsomeoneaskedanimportantquestion:Howarewomengoing
toreactwhentheyfigureouthowmuchTargetknows?

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Ifwesendsomeoneacatalogandsay,Congratulationsonyourfirstchild!
andtheyvenevertoldustheyrepregnant,thatsgoingtomakesomepeople
uncomfortable,Poletoldme.Weareveryconservativeaboutcompliancewith
allprivacylaws.Butevenifyourefollowingthelaw,youcandothingswhere
peoplegetqueasy.
AboutayearafterPolecreatedhispregnancypredictionmodel,aman
walkedintoaTargetoutsideMinneapolisanddemandedtoseethemanager.He
wasclutchingcouponsthathadbeensenttohisdaughter,andhewasangry,
accordingtoanemployeewhoparticipatedintheconversation.
Mydaughtergotthisinthemail!hesaid.Shesstillinhighschool,and
youresendinghercouponsforbabyclothesandcribs?Areyoutryingto
encouragehertogetpregnant?
Themanagerdidnthaveanyideawhatthemanwastalkingabout.He
lookedatthemailer.Sureenough,itwasaddressedtothemansdaughterand
containedadvertisementsformaternityclothing,nurseryfurnitureandpictures
ofsmilinginfants.Themanagerapologizedandthencalledafewdayslaterto
apologizeagain.
Onthephone,though,thefatherwassomewhatabashed.Ihadatalkwith
mydaughter,hesaid.ItturnsouttheresbeensomeactivitiesinmyhouseI
haventbeencompletelyawareof.ShesdueinAugust.Ioweyouanapology.
WhenIapproachedTargettodiscussPoleswork,itsrepresentatives
declinedtospeakwithme.OurmissionistomakeTargetthepreferredshopping
destinationforourguestsbydeliveringoutstandingvalue,continuousinnovation
andexceptionalguestexperience,thecompanywroteinastatement.Weve
developedanumberofresearchtoolsthatallowustogaininsightsintotrends
andpreferenceswithindifferentdemographicsegmentsofourguestpopulation.
WhenIsentTargetacompletesummaryofmyreporting,thereplywasmore
terse:Almostallofyourstatementscontaininaccurateinformationand
publishingthemwouldbemisleadingtothepublic.Wedonotintendtoaddress
eachstatementpointbypoint.Thecompanydeclinedtoidentifywhatwas
inaccurate.Theydidadd,however,thatTargetisincompliancewithallfederal
andstatelaws,includingthoserelatedtoprotectedhealthinformation.

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WhenIofferedtoflytoTargetsheadquarterstodiscussitsconcerns,a
spokeswomanemailedthatnoonewouldmeetme.WhenIflewoutanyway,I
wastoldIwasonalistofprohibitedvisitors.Ivebeeninstructednottogiveyou
accessandtoaskyoutoleave,saidaverynicesecurityguardnamedAlex.
Usingdatatopredictawomanspregnancy,TargetrealizedsoonafterPole
perfectedhismodel,couldbeapublicrelationsdisaster.Sothequestionbecame:
howcouldtheygettheiradvertisementsintoexpectantmothershandswithout
makingitappeartheywerespyingonthem?Howdoyoutakeadvantageof
someoneshabitswithoutlettingthemknowyourestudyingtheirlives?
BeforeImetAndrewPole,beforeIevendecidedtowriteabookabout
thescienceofhabitformation,Ihadanothergoal:Iwantedtoloseweight.
Ihadgotintoabadhabitofgoingtothecafeteriaeveryafternoonandeating
achocolatechipcookie,whichcontributedtomygainingafewpounds.Eight,to
beprecise.IputaPostitnoteonmycomputerreadingNOMORECOOKIES.
Buteveryafternoon,Imanagedtoignorethatnote,wandertothecafeteria,buya
cookieandeatitwhilechattingwithcolleagues.Tomorrow,Ialwayspromised
myself,Illmusterthewillpowertoresist.
Tomorrow,Iateanothercookie.
WhenIstartedinterviewingexpertsinhabitformation,Iconcludedeach
interviewbyaskingwhatIshoulddo.Thefirststep,theysaid,wastofigureout
myhabitloop.Theroutinewassimple:everyafternoon,Iwalkedtothecafeteria,
boughtacookieandateitwhilechattingwithfriends.
Nextcamesomelessobviousquestions:Whatwasthecue?Hunger?
Boredom?Lowbloodsugar?Andwhatwasthereward?Thetasteofthecookie
itself?Thetemporarydistractionfrommywork?Thechancetosocializewith
colleagues?
Rewardsarepowerfulbecausetheysatisfycravings,butwereoftennot
consciousoftheurgesdrivingourhabitsinthefirstplace.Sooneday,whenIfelt
acookieimpulse,Iwentoutsideandtookawalkinstead.Thenextday,Iwentto
thecafeteriaandboughtacoffee.Thenext,Iboughtanappleandateitwhile
chattingwithfriends.Yougettheidea.Iwantedtotestdifferenttheories
regardingwhatrewardIwasreallycraving.Wasithunger?(Inwhichcasethe

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appleshouldhaveworked.)Wasitthedesireforaquickburstofenergy?(Ifso,
thecoffeeshouldsuffice.)Or,asturnedouttobetheanswer,wasitthatafter
severalhoursspentfocusedonwork,Iwantedtosocialize,tomakesureIwasup
tospeedonofficegossip,andthecookiewasjustaconvenientexcuse?WhenI
walkedtoacolleaguesdeskandchattedforafewminutes,itturnedout,my
cookieurgewasgone.
Allthatwasleftwasidentifyingthecue.
Decipheringcuesishard,however.Ourlivesoftencontaintoomuch
informationtofigureoutwhatistriggeringaparticularbehavior.Doyoueat
breakfastatacertaintimebecauseyourehungry?Orbecausethemorningnews
ison?Orbecauseyourkidshavestartedeating?Experimentshaveshownthat
mostcuesfitintooneoffivecategories:location,time,emotionalstate,other
peopleortheimmediatelyprecedingaction.Sotofigureoutthecueformycookie
habit,Iwrotedownfivethingsthemomenttheurgehit:
Whereareyou?(Sittingatmydesk.)
Whattimeisit?(3:36p.m.)
Whatsyouremotionalstate?(Bored.)
Whoelseisaround?(Noone.)
Whatactionprecededtheurge?(Answeredanemail.)
ThenextdayIdidthesamething.Andthenext.Prettysoon,thecuewas
clear:Ialwaysfeltanurgetosnackaround3:30.
OnceIfiguredoutallthepartsoftheloop,itseemedfairlyeasytochangemy
habit.Butthepsychologistsandneuroscientistswarnedmethat,formynew
behaviortostick,IneededtoabidebythesameprinciplethatguidedProcter&
GambleinsellingFebreze:Toshifttheroutinetosocialize,ratherthaneata
cookieIneededtopiggybackonanexistinghabit.Sonow,everydayaround
3:30,Istandup,lookaroundthenewsroomforsomeonetotalkto,spend10
minutesgossiping,thengobacktomydesk.Thecueandrewardhavestayedthe
same.Onlytheroutinehasshifted.Itdoesntfeellikeadecision,anymorethan
theM.I.T.ratsmadeadecisiontorunthroughthemaze.Itsnowahabit.Ivelost
21poundssincethen(12ofthemfromchangingmycookieritual).

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AfterAndrewPolebuilthispregnancypredictionmodel,afterhe
identifiedthousandsoffemaleshopperswhoweremostlikelypregnant,after
someonepointedoutthatsomeofthosewomenmightbealittleupsetifthey
receivedanadvertisementmakingitobviousTargetwasstudyingtheir
reproductivestatus,everyonedecidedtoslowthingsdown.
Themarketingdepartmentconductedafewtestsbychoosingasmall,
randomsampleofwomenfromPoleslistandmailingthemcombinationsof
advertisementstoseehowtheyreacted.
Wehavethecapacitytosendeverycustomeranadbooklet,specifically
designedforthem,thatsays,Hereseverythingyouboughtlastweekanda
couponforit,oneTargetexecutivetoldme.Wedothatforgroceryproductsall
thetime.Butforpregnantwomen,Targetsgoalwassellingthembabyitems
theydidntevenknowtheyneededyet.
Withthepregnancyproducts,though,welearnedthatsomewomenreact
badly,theexecutivesaid.Thenwestartedmixinginalltheseadsforthingswe
knewpregnantwomenwouldneverbuy,sothebabyadslookedrandom.Wed
putanadforalawnmowernexttodiapers.Wedputacouponforwineglasses
nexttoinfantclothes.Thatway,itlookedlikealltheproductswerechosenby
chance.
Andwefoundoutthataslongasapregnantwomanthinksshehasntbeen
spiedon,shellusethecoupons.Shejustassumesthateveryoneelseonherblock
gotthesamemailerfordiapersandcribs.Aslongaswedontspookher,it
works.
Inotherwords,ifTargetpiggybackedonexistinghabitsthesamecuesand
rewardstheyalreadyknewgotcustomerstobuycleaningsuppliesorsocks
thentheycouldinsertanewroutine:buyingbabyproducts,aswell.Theresacue
(Oh,acouponforsomethingIneed!)aroutine(Buy!Buy!Buy!)andareward
(Icantakethatoffmylist).Andoncetheshopperisinsidethestore,Targetwill
hitherwithcuesandrewardstoenticehertopurchaseeverythingshenormally
buyssomewhereelse.AslongasTargetcamouflagedhowmuchitknew,aslong
asthehabitfeltfamiliar,thenewbehaviortookhold.
Soonafterthenewadcampaignbegan,TargetsMomandBabysales
exploded.Thecompanydoesntbreakoutfiguresforspecificdivisions,but

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between2002whenPolewashiredand2010,Targetsrevenuesgrewfrom
$44billionto$67billion.In2005,thecompanyspresident,GreggSteinhafel,
boastedtoaroomofinvestorsaboutthecompanysheightenedfocusonitems
andcategoriesthatappealtospecificguestsegmentssuchasmomandbaby.
Polewaspromoted.Hehasbeeninvitedtospeakatconferences.Inever
expectedthiswouldbecomesuchabigdeal,hetoldmethelasttimewespoke.
Afewweeksbeforethisarticlewenttopress,IflewtoMinneapolistotry
andspeaktoAndrewPoleonelasttime.Ihadnttalkedtohiminmorethana
year.Backwhenwewerestillfriendly,Imentionedthatmywifewasseven
monthspregnant.WeshopatTarget,Itoldhim,andhadgiventhecompanyour
addresssowecouldstartreceivingcouponsinthemail.Asmywifespregnancy
progressed,Inoticedasubtleupswinginthenumberofadvertisementsfor
diapersandbabyclothesarrivingatourhouse.
PoledidntanswermyemailsorphonecallswhenIvisitedMinneapolis.I
drovetohislargehomeinanicesuburb,butnooneansweredthedoor.Onmy
waybacktothehotel,IstoppedataTargettopickupsomedeodorant,thenalso
boughtsomeTshirtsandafancyhairgel.Onawhim,Ithrewinsomepacifiers,
toseehowthecomputerswouldreact.Besides,ourbabyisnow9monthsold.
Youcanthavetoomanypacifiers.
WhenIpaid,Ididntreceiveanysuddendealsondiapersorformula,tomy
slightdisappointment.Itmadesense,though:IwasshoppinginacityInever
previouslyvisited,at9:45p.m.onaweeknight,buyingarandomassortmentof
items.Iwasusingacorporatecreditcard,andbesidesthepacifiers,hadnt
purchasedanyofthethingsthataparentneeds.ItwascleartoTargets
computersthatIwasonabusinesstrip.Polespredictioncalculatortookonelook
atme,ranthenumbersanddecidedtobideitstime.Backhome,theofferswould
eventuallycome.AsPoletoldmethelasttimewespoke:Justwait.Wellbe
sendingyoucouponsforthingsyouwantbeforeyouevenknowyouwantthem.
CharlesDuhiggisastaffwriterforTheTimesandauthorof"ThePowerofHabit:
WhyWeDoWhatWeDoinLifeandBusiness,"whichwillbepublishedonFeb.28.
FollowhimonTwitterandonFacebook.
Editor:JoelLovell

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AversionofthisarticleappearsinprintonFebruary19,2012,onpageMM30oftheSundayMagazine
withtheheadline:Psst,YouinAisle5.

2016TheNewYorkTimesCompany

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