College Algebra Project #2

Application of a Linear Function Model: OPEC Basket Prices

Name: Cynthia J. Novak

Received 3/2/2010

More than 2 weeks late; coupon applied to save maximum 75% credit.

How to complete this assessment

Use the Google Docs File menu to "make a copy." Then Rename the new file and include your
last name as part of the file name. Add your full name to the line above.
Add your work for each question below. Remember to show supporting work, not just answers.
Each answer should be interpreted by writing a complete sentence statement.
Show supporting work for each question. Answers alone are not sufficient math. There should
be enough work for the reader to understand the process you used to get your answers. These
projects are an opportunity to get feedback on your solution steps, not just the answers.
After you complete your project work, but before submitting the project, rate yourself using the
Scoring Guide at the end of this file. Use your self ratings to identify any areas that need to be
improved before you submit your work. When submitted for grading, the instructor will also
add comments to your self-assessment and provide explanations to anything that was scored
differently than you expected.
Place your project file into your sharing folder when you are ready to submit your work.

Part 1. Background Information

Read the OPEC fact sheet from the Energy Information Administration about the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on OPEC Oil Basket Prices. Get the background information
you need to make sense of the following graph.
Part 2. Vocabulary
Use function terminology to describe the OPEC Basket Price graph.

A. What is the domain of the function depicted in the OPEC Basket Price graph?
The domain of the function includes dates beginning at 1/21/2001 through 7/02/2006.

B. What is the range of the function depicted in the OPEC Basket Price graph?
The range of the function includes price beginning at $15.00 through $75.00.

C. Identify one relative minimum and one relative maximum point on the graph. Estimate
values for the coordinates of these two points.
One relative

D. Describe the overall behavior of this relationship using the terms increasing, decreasing, or
constant.
Part 3. The Linear Model
Determine a linear model that matches this graph for the input dates 1/2/02 to 7/2/06.

A. The horizontal axis shows dates in equal increments (6 time per year). In order to simplify
the mathematics here, count these time points as x values, 0, 1, 2, 3, etc. So the left-most time at
1/2/01 is called x = 0 and the right most time at 7/2/06 will be x = 33.
B. Draw a line directly on the oil price graph that you believe best models that average change
in OPEC basket prices.

C. Mark a point near each end of your line and estimate the coordinates. Your two points
should be in the form (x, y) with y representing the basket price.

I have marked the points (2,21) and (32,61).

D. Compute the slope of your line.

62-21/32-2 = 40/30 = 4/3

The slope of the line is 4/3
 E. Use the slope from part D and one of your two points from part C to determine an equation
for this line.

y = mx + b

21 = 4/3(2) + b

21 = 8/3 + b

21-8/3 = 8/3 - 8/3 + b

b = 55/3

F. Write your equation using function notation with p(x) representing the basket price.

p(x) = 4/3x + 55/3

Part 4. Interpretation
Answer the following questions using your function model for p(x).

A. Predict the OPEC oil basket price that we may see on 7/2/2010. (First, decide what x value
does this date corresponds to. Then use your function model to find the price.)

There are 57 units between the first point of 01/02/2001 and 07/02/2010
We may see an oil basket price on 7/02/2010 of approximately $94.00.
p(x) = 4/3(57) + 55/3
p(x) = 76 + 55/3
p(x) = 94.3

B. Predict the OPEC oil basket price that we may see on 1/2/2020.

There are 114 units between the first point of 01/02/2001 and 01/02/2020
We may see an oil basket price on 01/02/2020 of approximately $170.00
p(x) = 4/3(114) + 55/3
p(x) = 152 + 55/3
p(x) = 170.33

C. Predict the date that will have an oil basket price of $150. (Show the work to solve your
model equation p(x) = 150).

I predict the date that will have an oil basket price of $150.00 to be 06/02/2017
 150 = 4/3x+55/3 (solve for x)
(3/4) 395/3 = 4/3x (3/4)
x = 98.75
98.75 x 2 = 197.5
197.5/ 12 = 16.45
from the starting point of 01/02/2001 this would be 06/02/2017

D. Do you think this estimate for 2020 will be accurate? Why or why not? What outside factors
might make your model inaccurate over time?

If the trend remains the same, then the prediction for 2020 should be accurate. However, there
are many outside factors that could make this model inaccurate over time. Consumers
could start using electric cars and/or high-speed rail could cause the use of automobiles to
decline, changing the usage of oil, thus changing the prices of oil (economics at work). Politics,
war, and environmental disaster could also change the availabiltiy of oil, thus making effecting
supply and demand and prices could changing our estimates.

There are various answers that can be given here, both in favor and against. The point is to think about
what factors could affect this general trend in the future. You might mention oil supply shortage,
warfare, or political/international changes that could disrupt oil production. The year 2020 is a long
time past the data shown in the graph. Situations do change, so this prediction is not likely to hold true
so far into the future. You have listed a couple possible reasons that the oil prices might vary from the
pattern we see in the graph so far.
Scoring standard and Rating scale

You must achieve a yes or a minimum rating of 3 on each criterion to demonstrate competence. Your
project score is the sum of all point ratings Your project score is the sum of all point ratings.

0 Incomplete. No work submitted.

1 Developing. Work does not meet expectations of the criterion. Work contains mathematical
and/or grammatical errors.

3 Good. Work meets expectations. Mathematical details are accurate, but there may be some
technical or grammatical errors.

5 Accomplished. Work exhibits a high level of quality and fully accurate details.

On future projects, please fill in the self-assessment ratings column for yourself. Use this to help make
sure that you have completed the project up to the expected requirements.

Scoring Guide

Criteria Student's Instructor's

Self-Ratings
 Ratings
You included your name in the 1
1. yes (1)
document file.
You submitted a single 2
yes (2)
2. document file.
You cited reference sources for 2
3. any additional information that n/a
you had to research.
You submitted the project on or no
4. no
before the due date.
You interpret answers in a 4
meaningful and logical manner.
5. 4
You wrote all answers in
complete sentences.
You gave appropriate answers 4
6. to the vocabulary questions 4
(Part 2).
You identified two points on 5
the graph and drew a line to
7. 5
represent the linear model (Part
3).
You found the slope and
equation for the price line
8. between two chosen points 5 5
(Part 3).

You made accurate predictions 5

9. 5
using your price model (Part 4).
Total score (of 30 points): 25 22.5 of 30 points
max credit with coupon is 75%
Project Grade: C

This project is good except for being so late.