Assignment/Activity Title Crystal Ball Essay

Skill
Research, Writing and Critical Thinking
Competency Critical Thinking

Year Sophomore
Portfolio

The Crystal Ball final election predictions and essay was one of the most difficult
assignments for me. For this project, we were each assigned 5 to 6 congressional districts and
were expected to come up with an exact vote count and percentage that we expected each
candidate to receive in the upcoming congressional elections and presidential elections. Next, we
had to combine our presidential election numbers with those of other people with districts in the
same state as us and come up with a presidential election prediction for the entire state. I had
Florida congressional districts 1-4 and Alabama congressional district 7. After coming up with our
numbers, we had to write an essay explaining our methodology, taking into account
demographic factors, historical voting trends and likely voters.
When I first started this phase of the Crystal Ball project, I thought it would be relatively
easy, just like with other three parts. I could just look at my previous parts of the assignment,
including my district demographic sheets, my issue outlines, and my media analysis and come
up with some rough numbers and be done with it.
When I finally got around to doing this project, I realized how disjointed, sparse, and
inadequate my research and understanding of my districts really was. My hasty, last minute
completion of my district profiles, issue outlines and media analysis was finally catching up to
me.
I felt overwhelmed, confused, and panicky. How was I supposed know how many people
would vote for who? How would I even figure out how many people would even turn out vote?
Where do I even start?
I stared at the assignment and was seriously tempted to just make up some numbers and
be done with it; but instead, I did some research. I had to think critically and decide what
information I needed, why it was relevant and how I would use it. I used my research to create a
rough formula I could use to determine the number of people in my district I thought would vote
for each candidate. In order to create this formula, I first looked into turnout rates in 2012, and
came up with estimates based on race and education level, which are important demographic
factors in all of my districts.
However, creating election predictions is not an exact science. It is an art of balancing
many different variables, some of which have more weight than others and differ depending on
the area. For this reason, I had to consider issues, demographic factors and historical trends that
applied specifically to certain areas. For instance, it would be remiss not to consider the high
number of veterans who live in Florida 1. Veterans tend to vote consistently republican and have
a huge effect on the outcome of the Florida 1 elections. Alabama 7, however, does not have a
significant veteran population, so this would not be a factor I would look at when creating my
election prediction for this district.
Once I came up with a formula, the rest of the assignment was relatively easy. I
miraculously felt like I understood what I was doing and could effectively synthesis my research
and support my opinion in writing in my essay.
If I were to complete this assignment over again, I would definitely start earlier so that the
night before it is due Im not rushing to get it done. I would also take the district profiles, issue
outlines and media analysis more seriously so that I would not have to basically start my
research from scratch when I started my final predictions and essay.

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