DJ ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK -

Majors
Mon Jun 21 19:36:00 EDT 2010
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major
currency pairs today:

Immediate Range Larger Range

USD/JPY 90.61-91.48 89.95-91.82
EUR/USD 1.2301-1.2400 1.2241-1.2490
AUD/USD 0.8750-0.8800 0.8730-0.8859
NZD/USD 0.7065-0.7112 0.7014-0.7152
GBP/USD 1.4735-1.4849 1.4643-1.4936
USD/CHF 1.1065-1.1137 1.0995-1.1246
USD/CAD 1.0200-1.0260 1.0133-1.0312
EUR/JPY 111.82-112.74 111.62-113.41
EUR/GBP 0.8323-0.8382 0.8283-0.8419

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option
strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to consolidate amid broadly stronger USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last
85.94 vs Friday's 85.699 settlement) as increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 3.88% to
24.88) after Fitch's one-notch downgrade of French banking giant BNP Paribas to AA- erased
initial euphoria over China's weekend move to de-peg yuan, spurred flows to safe-haven USD,
U.S. stocks' surrender of earlier strong gains to close lower (DJIA off 0.08%, Nasdaq down
0.7%). USD/JPY also underpinned by higher U.S. Treasury yields, USD demand for import
settlements; but gains tempered by Japan exporter sales, unwinding of short-JPY carry trades as
risk appetite falls, caution before tomorrow's U.S. FOMC monetary policy announcement. Data
focus: 1400 GMT U.S. May existing home sales, 1400 GMT June Richmond Fed survey.
USD/JPY daily chart mixed as MACD & stochastics bearish, but bullish engulfing candlestick
pattern completed yesterday. Resistance at 91.48 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside
to 91.82 (Wednesday's high), then 92.11 (June 14 high), 92.21 (55-day moving average) and
92.89-92.96 band (June 4 high-May 18 high). Support at 90.61 (hourly chart); breach would
expose downside to 89.95 (yesterday's low), then 89.79 (May 26 low), 89.24 (May 25 low) and
88.98 (May 20 reaction low).

EUR/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Pair undermined by unwinding of long-EUR
carry trades on increased risk aversion, stronger USD sentiment, Fitch's downgrade of BNP
Paribas to AA- from AA. But EUR/USD losses tempered by caution before tomorrow's U.S.
FOMC monetary policy announcement, lingering effect from China's yuan move (lower PBOC
USD/CNY rate setting today vs yesterday's 6.8275 would boost sentiment for EUR and
commodity-linked currencies). Data focus: 0800 GMT German June Ifo business climate index,
euro area April balance of payments. EUR/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but
stochastics turned bearish at overbought; bearish key-reversal-day pattern completed yesterday.
Support at 1.2301 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2241 (Thursday's low),
then 1.2163 (June 15 low), 1.2043 (June 11 low) and 1.1954 (June 10 low). Resistance at 1.2400
(hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 1.2490 (yesterday's high), then 1.2672 (May 21
reaction high) and 1.2718 (55-day moving average).

AUD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Pair undermined by unwinding of long-
AUD carry trades on higher risk aversion, stronger USD sentiment. But AUD/USD losses
tempered by Aussie-USD yield gap, firmer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed up 0.76
yesterday at 263.69), caution before tomorrow's U.S. FOMC monetary policy announcement,
lingering effect from China's yuan move. AUD/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but
stochastics turned bearish at overbought. Support at 0.8750 (yesterday's low), then at 0.8730
(Friday's high, bottom of gap); breach would expose downside to 0.8649 (Friday's low), then
0.8580 (Wednesday's & Thursday's low), 0.8503 (June 15 low) and 0.8422 (June 11 low).
Resistance at 0.8800 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 0.8859 (yesterday's high),
then 0.8915 (100-day moving average), 0.8983 (200-day moving average), psychological 90.00
and 90.26 (May 13 high).

NZD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Pair undermined by unwinding of long-
NZD carry trades on lower risk appetite, stronger USD sentiment; but losses tempered by Kiwi-
USD yield gap, firmer commodity prices, caution before tomorrow's U.S. FOMC monetary
policy announcement, lingering effect from China's yuan move. Data focus: 0300 GMT NZ May
credit card statistics. NZD/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned
bearish at overbought. Support at 0.7065 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to
0.7014 (Friday's low), then 0.6943 (Thursday's low), 0.6926 (Wednesday's low) and 0.6883
(June 15 low). Resistance at 0.7112 (hourly chat); breach would expose upside to 0.7152
(yesterday's high), then 0.7199 (May 12 high) and 0.7295 (May 10 reaction high).

GBP/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower as markets await today's emergency UK
budget: coalition government widely tipped to take aggressive measures to tackle budget deficit.
Pair undermined by higher investor risk aversion, stronger USD sentiment; but losses tempered
by caution before tomorrow's U.S. FOMC monetary policy announcement, lingering effect from
China's yuan move. GBP/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turned
bearish at overbought; bearish key-reversal-day pattern completed yesterday. Support at 1.4735
(yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.4643 (Thursday's low), then 1.4502 (June
11 low), 1.4393 (June 9 low) and 1.4344 (June 8 reaction low). Resistance at 1.4849 (hourly
chart); breach would expose upside to 1.4936 (yesterday's high), then 1.5044-1.5053 band (May
12 high-May 10 high), 1.5064 (100-day moving average) and 1.5125 (previous base set April
28).

USD/CHF - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Pair underpinned by broadly stronger USD
undertone; but topside limited by unwinding of short-CHF carry trades amid higher risk
aversion, caution before tomorrow's U.S. FOMC monetary policy announcement, lingering
effect from China's yuan move. Data focus: 0615 GMT Swiss May trade balance. Daily chart
mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics turning bullish at oversold; bullish key-reversal-day
pattern completed yesterday. Resistance at 1.1137 (yesterday's high, matching 55-day moving
average); breach would expose upside to 1.1246 (previous base set Wednesday), then 1.1329-
1.1339 band (Thursday's high-Wednesday's high), 1.1481-1.1488 band (June 15 high-June 14
high) and 1.1546-1.1555 band (June 11 high-June 9 high)). Support at 1.1065 (hourly chart);
breach would expose downside 1.0995 (yesterday's low), then 1.0934 (100-day moving average),
1.0920 (May 10 reaction low, near 61.8% Fibonacci correction of 1.0431-1.1730 April 1-June 1
advance) and 1.0898 (previous cap set Feb. 19).

USD/CAD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Pair underpinned by negative risk
sentiment, stronger global USD; but gains tempered by firmer commodity & oil prices (Nymex
crude settled up 64 cents yesterday at $77.82bbl), lingering effect from China's yuan move. Data
focus: 1100 GMT Canada May CPI. USD/CAD daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but
stochastics turned bullish at oversold. Resistance at 1.0260 (yesterday's high); breach would
expose upside to 1.0312 (Friday's high), then 1.0337 (Thursday's high), 1.0360 (June 15 high),
1.0390 (June 11 high) and 1.0451 (June 10 high). Support at 1.0200 (hourly chart); breach would
expose downside to 1.0133 (yesterday's low), then 1.0105 (May 13 reaction low), 1.0098 (May 3
low) and 1.0010 (April 29 reaction low).

EUR/JPY - to consolidate. Cross undermined by unwinding of carry trades on higher risk

aversion, renewed euro-zone debt worries after Fitch's downgrade of BNP Paribas; but losses
tempered by lingering effect from China's yuan move. Daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but
stochastics bearish near overbought. Support at 111.82 (yesterday's low), then at 111.62
(Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 110.87 (June 15 low), then 110.26 (June 11
low), 108.94-108.84 band (June 10 low-June 9 low) and 108.32 (June 8 low). Resistance at
112.74 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 113.41 (yesterday's high), then 114.16
(June 3 reaction high), 114.40 (May 21 high) and 115.49 (May 18 high).

EUR/GBP - to consolidate. Daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish.
Resistance at 0.8382 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8419 (previous base set
May 27), then 0.8547 (May 28 high, near 55-day moving average). Support at 0.8323 (Friday's
low); breach would expose downside to 0.8283 (Wednesday's low), then 0.8259 (June 15 low),
0.8206 (19-month low set June 11) and 0.8195 (previous cap set Oct. 24, 2008).

Disclaimer
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not
consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a
specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the
information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow
Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)