Chapter 4

Tips for Understanding Probability Questions

Frequency Distribution Table:

Male
Female

Brazil
Supporter
325
705
1030

Argentina
Supporter
480
500
980

Germany
Supporter
600
300
900

1405
1505
2910

Joint and Marginal Probability Distribution Table:

Male
Female

Male
Female

Brazil
Supporter
325/2910
705/2910
1030/2910

Argentina
Supporter
480/2910
500/2910
980/2910

Germany
Supporter
600/2910
300/2910
900/2910

1405/2910
1505/2910
2910/2910

Brazil
Supporter
.11
.24
.35

Argentina
Supporter
.16
.17
.33

Germany
Supporter
.21
.10
.31

.48
.51
.99*

Probabilities in blue are Joint Probabilities and probabilities in green are Marginal Probabilities.
Conditional Probabilities will NEVER appear on the probability distribution tables directly.
You will have to divide Joint Probabilities by Marginal Probabilities for finding Conditional
Probabilities.
*Sum of all probabilities will of course be 1, but because of rounding error it is summing up to
.99 in this table.
Marginal probability P(A)
A marginal probability is the probability of a single event happening. It is not conditional on any other
event occurring.
What is the probability of finding a male among the 2910 people surveyed? Or simply finding someone
who is a Brazil supporter?
P (Male) = 1405/2910 = .48
P (Brazil supporter) = 1030/2910 = .35

 Conditional probability = P (AB) = Probability of A given B

The probability of an event (A), given that another (B) has already occurred.
What is the probability that someone is a male given that he is a Germany supporter?
P (Male Germany supporter) = 600/900=.67
What is the probability that someone is an Argentina supporter given that he is a
male?
P (Argentina supporter Male) = 480/ 1405 = .34

Independent events: Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not
affect the probability of the occurrence of the other. If A and B are independent,
P(A) = P (AB) or P(B) = P (BA)
P (Argentina supporter) = 980/2910=.34
P (Argentina supporter Male) = 480/ 1405 = .34
So, the events being an Argentina supporter and being a male are independent. Being a male
does not increase or decrease the chances of someones being an Argentina supporter.

Dependent events: If the occurrence of one event affects the probability of the occurrence of
the other event, then the two events are said to be dependent events.
P(A) P (AB) or P(B) P (BA)
P (Brazil supporter) = 1030/2910=.35
P (Brazil supporter Male) = 325/ 1405 = .23
So, the events being a Brazil supporter and being a male are dependent. Being male decreases the
chance of someones being an Argentina supporter.

Mutually exclusive events: Events that can never happen together are called mutually
exclusive events.

A person cannot support more than one football team at the same time, so the events are
mutually exclusive.
P (Brazil supporter) = 1030/2910=.35
P (Brazil supporter Germany supporter) = 0 [Being a Germany supporter nullifies the chance
of being a Brazil supporter]
P (Brazil supporter Argentina supporter) = 0 [Being a Argentina supporter nullifies the chance
of being a Brazil supporter]
Mutually exclusive events are always dependent.

 Joint probability= P (A B) = Probability of A and B

The probability of an event (A) and another event (B) happening together.

Joint probability of mutually exclusive events is always 0 since they cannot happen
together.

What is the probability of being a male and an Argentina supporter?

From the table,

P (Male and Argentina supporter) = 480/2910= .16
Using the multiplication rule for independent events,
P (Male and Argentina supporter) = P (Male) x P (Argentina supporter) = .48 x .34 = .16

What is the probability of being a male and a Brazil supporter?

From the table,

P (Male and Brazil supporter) = 325/2910= .11
Using the multiplication rule for dependent events,
P (Male and Brazil supporter) = P (Male) x P (Brazil suppoterMale)
= .48 x (325/1405)= .48 x .23 = .11

What is the probability of being a Germany supporter and a Brazil supporter?

Since these events are mutually exclusive their joint probability is 0.

P(A B) = Probability of A or B

What is the probability of being a female or a Germany supporter?

P (Female or Germany supporter)
= P (Female) + P (Germany supporter) P (Female and Germany supporter)
= .51+.31-.10
=.72
Note that male Germany supporters and female Argentina and Brazil supporters are also
included in P(Female or Germany supporters)

What is the probability of being a Germany supporter or a Brazil supporter?

Since these events are mutually exclusive, their joint probability,

P (Germany supporter Brazil supporter) = 0
So, P (Brazil supporter or Germany supporter)
= P (Brazil supporter) + P (Germany supporter)
=
.35
+
.31
=.66
Note: Expressing the Joint or Marginal Probabilities in terms of percentages instead of decimals or
relative frequencies of course do not change their meaning at all.

Male
Female

Male
Female

Brazil
Supporter
.11
.24
.35

Argentina
Supporter
.16
.17
.33

Germany
Supporter
.21
.10
.31

.48
.51
.99*

Brazil
Supporter
11%
24%
35%

Argentina
Supporter
16%
17%
33%

Germany
Supporter
21%
10%
31%

48%
51%
99%