Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Export Trade and Employment in The Woollen and Worsted Industry
Export Trade and Employment in The Woollen and Worsted Industry
Export Trade and Employment in The Woollen and Worsted Industry
Article views: 10
P235
{University of Leeds).
The main features of the course of the post-war boom, the depression of 1921
and the subsequent recover^' will afiford the most suitable introduction to this
paper. The years 1919 and 1920 were years of exceptional industrial activity,
and the currency inflation of the preceding years induced a state of artificial
prosperity. So far as the export trade is concerned, this prosperity wais enjoyed
much more by the makers of woollen and worsted tissues than by those exporting
tops and yarns. The follo\ving table illustrates this point concisely
Exports (Quantity)*
(Average of 1913 = 100.)
Woollen Tissues Worsted Tissues
(sq. yds.)
(sq. yds.)
1919
Average
1920
January
February
March ...
April
May
June
July
...
August...
September
October
November
December
1921
January
February
March ...
April ...
May
June
July
...
August...
September
October
November
December
Tops
(lbs.)
Worsted Yarn
(lbs.)
123-7
53-2
34-0
49-4
157 0
152-8
149-3
156-3
150-3
166-3
124-7
119-7
107-9
116-4
77-8
90-2
78-7
95-5
1199
123-3
109-6
127-6
119-9
97-5
72-6
86-7
66-1
59-8
48-6
36-8
45-9
60-7
42-3
44-3
57-4
54-1
94-8
51-9
56-1
71-9
58-6
62-8
49-8
48-3
47-1
59-2
41-8
38-5
39-2
40-6
34-4
83-0
59-7
52-8
53-1
430
36-9
44-9
44-9
518
60-0
59-2
60-8
61-2
55-2
43-5
60-3
37-3
42-1
42-4
45-3
50-6
60-8
61-8
65-9
45-3
506
127-6
160-3
869
55-7
37-9
70-3
711
90-2
83-8
72-8
33-4
23-3
26-4
26-2
28-1
25-9
37-2
60-4
57-0
81-5
84-9
79-1
HI 2
* Quoted from the Index Numbers of Messrs. Dean & Curwen in the Bradford Chamber
of Commerce Journal.
P236
Proceedings
The figures for 1921 are in themselves a sufficient indication^of the falling off of
trade in that year.
Let us t u m now to the fluctuations in the volume of employment in the
industry. The graphs below indicate the percentages of employment month by
month in the woollen and worsted industry and in all trades during the years
1921-1924. This chart shows clearly the gravity of the depression which reached
its worst point in May and June 1921. There was a marked recovery in the
general position between June and September, but a slight setback occurred
between September and the end of the year. Since that date the "all trades"
percentage of emploj^ment has risen steadily, with only a slight falling off at
the beginning of 1923 and in January 1924. A long view seems to justify the
feeling that as far as employment in general is concerned there is clear evidence
of steady recovery from the collapse of three years ago.
P237,
A comparison of the "all trades" curve and the woollen and worsted curve is
instructive and encouraging. The full force of the depression was felt in the
first six months of 1921, and the volume of employment shrank to much lower
level than the average for all trades. But the recovery was remarkable. Between
June 1921 (the worst month) and September 1921, the percentage of employment
increased from 76-5% to 89%, and since July 1921 the volume of employment
in the industry has been greater than the average for the country as a whole.
The year 1922 clearly was one of distinct recovery. In fact, from June 1922
to May 1923 the industry experienced an activity comparable with that of a
typical pre-war year, and employment reached a level of 96% or 97%- The
later part of 1923 is the story of the Ruhr occupation, disturbances in the American
market, and keen competition from countries wdth depreciated currencies. The
turn of 1924 has brought a favourable trend of events and employment has
increased steadily, and at all the main centres of the trade (April 1924) is once
more on a par with customary pre-war levels.
1921
Bradford
Huddersfield
Halifax ...
Leeds
Dewsbury
Batley
Morley ...
1924
1923
May
June
June
June
December
April
110%
23-6o/o
11-7%
430%
76-6%
61-2%
27-4%
103%
25-2%
78%
38-6%
68-7%
47-9%
15-2%
12%
4-2%
0-7%
2-7%
2-7%
3-3%
16-604
54%
6-0%
3-9%
10-7%
40%
440/^
7-4%
7-9%
12-8%
7-1%
10-7%
4-2%
8-5%
7-3%
28%
4-5%
1-7%
5-2%
09%
1-2%
1-7%
The most striking feature of this table is the state of affairs revealed in 1921.
The heavy woollen areas evidently bore the brunt of the depression. The figures
at once suggest that markets for lower priced goods were more readily disorganised
than markets for better class goods. This would indicate that purchasers of
higher grade fabrics do not contract their demands as rapidly as purchasers of
cheaper goods. This is an interesting position, because normally it is contended
that economy in personal budgets is m.ost readily exercised on the more expensive
items, and one would have expected Bradford, for example, to have suffered
much more severely than Batley during the initial stages of the trade depression.
The recent history of events in the wool textile trade as I have sketched it
above registers clearly on one's mind the marked capacity of the industry to
recover from adversity. My main purpose in this paper is to trace the connection
between employment and the export trade, but I realise fully that the export
trade touches only one part of the problem of finding full employinent for
machinery and operatives in the industry. The home market is important,
and frequently it is asserted that the home market is the larger market for our
wool textile products. It is a matter for regret that we have no recent accurate
index of the quantities of our goods consumed at home as compared with the
quantities consumed abroad. The only available guide is the Census of Production of 1907, and we are given to understand that the unpublished figures
of the 1912 census confirm the position recorded in the 1907 returns. The
essential facts are given in the table on next page
P238
Proceedings
Total
Damasks, Tapestries &c.
Flannels and Delaines
Carpets
Rugs
Blankets
Shawls
Others
...
Exports
% Exported
260-0
186-0
.,
35-811
12-69
2-577
73-307
14-5
42-3
39-4
69-198
15-683
47-2
37-8
84-881
45-1
20-992
1-999
45-3
33-2
22-991
76-021
48-5
99-012
47-4
-436
8-706
9-450
-793
6-3
17-2
36-7
45-3
25-3
31-6
32-8
From this table we learn that 55% of woollen tissues and 53% of worsted
tissues were retained in this country after manufacture and passed into stock
or into consumption. The semi-manufactured goods (tops, noils and yams)
would naturally pass fofAvard to be worked into the various fabrics, so they do
not constitute a net expansion of the market at home for wool textile products.
The exports of semi-manufactured goods on the other hand are a net addition to
our output inasmuch as they constitute goods produced by machinery and
operatives who are not contributing to the export of fuUy manufactured goods.
It would appear therefore that our foreign markets are rather larger than our
home markets. Certainly it mil appear later that the loss of markets abroad
for semi-manufactured goods has had a very direct influence on the volume of
employment in the woollen and worsted industry.
One other fact about the home market must be bome in mind. The sale of
wool products depends upon the prosperity of other industries in this country.
People obviously cannot increase their expenditure on clothing when their
earnings are below normal. Unhappily several of the large trades remain very
depressed.
The\Ministry of Labour Gazette for April 1924 records the following
percentages of unemplo>Tnent28-3% in shipbuilding, 16% in engineering,
15-4% in the cotton industry, 16-8% in public works contracting, and 19% in
shipping services. Stable conditions in the home market can only be counted
upon when these figures reach much lower levels.
A lengthy statement of the position of our export trade may be avoided by
the use of diagrams and tables. The first group of diagrams shows our
total exports of tops, yarns and tissues in 1913 and in each post-war year. The
second group of diagrams shows the distribution of our exports over our principal
r^^^^^^if 1. ^^ ^^^^ ^^^^ *^^ countries are given in the order of their importance
in 1913 for the particular products concerned.
P239
4291
41 60
U K
Total Exports
38.93
of Worsred Yarns
lm.il<or> l b s )
cn
^C
M
CM
<N
0>
160
teo
174 84
M8.64
U K Exports of Worsted
yards)
(midion
76.1 1
7 7 35
20
o
M
CM
CM
P24O
Proceedings
GROUP II
Oihsr Courtns
1239
2047
GROUP llcontinued
Japan
25 83
Canada
20 13
Br C Indies
15 68
Auslrar/a
13 94
Argentine
1025
Other Countries
191372 56
192381 73
(millioD iq,
Indies
China
0.19
Other Countries
5 13
1913-34.26
192326 77
Proceedings
The following tables are included to show t h e details of the yariations in
our exports t o different countries in each of t h e post-war years
Exports of Tops (Million Lbs.)
Sweden ...
Germany
Belgium
Japan
Canada ...
1913
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
5-33
16-23
2-37
5-15
2-82
1-85
-79
l-Ol
9-48
1-19
-09
4-28
2-67
8-61
1-33
1-66
3-32
4-68
10-39
325
2-42
7^50
3 97
5-97
194
7-16
7-50
1913
Germany
Denmark
Russia ...
Norway ...
Sweden ...
Netherlands
Belgium
France
...
TT C A
^ f
k a / a A ^
29-47
1 96
I 59
1 53
I 22
1-50
1-44
1-42
07
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
97
3-83
2-98
40
1-51
2-81
1-67
1 07
1-79
I 49
9-51
1 37
1782
2-64
10-79
1-66
1-86
1 41
2-50
3-42
1-26
1-65
1-79
44
308
30
1 69
1 83
1-26
201
842
22
_
-57
115
30
42
201
-61
-78
56
-71
-93
1913
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1-48
38-65
23-63
2-86
3-74
3-24
26-50
84-19
4812
12-98
19-97
13-74
412
3-36
18-98
19-38
2-92
54-34
4-76
6-63
5-95
4-96
2-90
12-38
12-67
11-37
17-06
12-56
7-50
37-39
2-43
1-95
11-93
7-75
6-10
15-06
4-39
2-82
25-89
11-00
6-89
33-45
4-77
4-51
40-31
16-93
9-81
38-12
1923
1919
1920
1921
1922
-87
Norway, Sweden, Denmark .
Germany, Netherlands, Bel5-92
gium and France ...
Portugal, Spain, Italy and
2-39
Greece
Turkey and Egypt
2-52
China and Japan
10-25
Mexico and South America .
9-94
11-52
U.S.A
29-92
Colonies
599
673
-78
1-51
1 26
6-65
4-08
1-42
1-50
83
2-27
2-85
2-09
5-71
1-99
9-50
5-61
5-34
6-44
7-61
6-71
29-55
1-82
2-23
5-40
4-46
6-45
13-79
2-46
3-22
ir53
5-44
6-41
25-44
2-52
2-38
12-83
7-65
7-55
22-89
P243
The charts in Group I. show that the recovery of our trade in wool textiles
has been most satisfactor>' in the case of woollen tissues. Worsted tissues have
not been exported since the war to the same extent as in 1913. Tops and y a m s
have failed to touch 1913 level, and in 1923 the totals for both were less than
those for 1922.
The position may be summed up as followsIn the total trade for 1923 we
were only 3 % below our 1913 total in the export of tissues. In tops we were
13% below and in worsted y a m s 30% below. If wooUen and worsted y a m s
be taken together, we were 20% down on our exports of yarns.
Both charts and tables confirm the view that as far as the export of tissues
is concerned we are comfortably within reach of our pre-war volume of trade.
The employment dictated by this fact will therefore be within range of the
employment experienced in 1913. How then are we to account for the unemployment in the trade ?
In the absence of any clear measure of the volume of trade activity on account
of the home market, I assume that the quantity of tissues exported in 1923
implies a home consumption in that year at least as favourable in proportion
as that of 1913. In other words, I am assuming that the same ratio of home
consumption to export as applied in 1913 was maintained in 1923. If this
assumption is correct we are left on the side of fully manufactured goods without
any clue to the unemployment in the industry.
The answer to the question seems to me to rest in the position of our exports
of semi-manufactured goods. Group I I . diagrams show clearly the severity of
the loss of the German market as a clearing-house for tops and yams. I have
reached the conclusion t h a t this loss has proved the main obstacle to a much
more rapid recovery in wool textiles than we have actually witnessed. There
are noteworthy pieces of evidence to support this conclusion.
The Report of the Committee on "Textile Trades after the W a r " drew attention
to the fact that prior to the war our combing and spinning machinerj-^ suited to
the working of crossbred wool was more than sufficient to meet home requirements. From this it follows at once that the loss of a substantial forci;?n
market at this stage of manufacture was bound to precipitate a problem of
unemployment of special difficulty.
In the second place it is worth noting that the most favourable position for
employment since the slump {i.e. in 1922see above) coincides with the most
favourable position since the depression in the export of semi-manufactures.
The figures run as follows
Total Exports
1920
1921
1922
1924
Tops (million lbs.)
23-77
...
3469
...
41-60
...
3893
Worsted Yams (million lbs.)
2464
...
23-46
...
4291
...
34-92
In the third place the revival in the woollen and worsted industry during
the first four months of 1924 is closely associated \vith the increase in the export
of semi-manufacturesespecially yams. The monthly figures for the last
six months are as follows
Export of Tops
Export of Worsted Yarns
(million lbs.)
(million lbs.)
November 1923
264
240
December ,,
2-38
261
January 1924
3-43
333
February ,,
473
3-85
March
346
2-92
April
4-78
423
Lastly, I would draw attention to the fact that when the recurrence of the
depression was experienced in the later months of 1923, the heaviest increases
of unemployment in the industry were registered in the wool combing, worsted
Proceedings
P244
Jan. Feb. Mar, Apl, May June July Aug, Sept. Oct. Nov, Dec,
225
303
335
591
410
591
633
945
156
195
255
468
I might add that the total of insured woollen and worsted operatives at the
seventeen centres is 178,600.
The increase in unemployment among worsted weavers coincides with a
general decline in worsted exports and reflects in part, at least, the influence of
foreign competition in worsteds during the latter half of 1923. But I can only
say again a full view demands the figures for home consumption, and those
figures are not available.
The future prosperity of the industry is primarily dependent upon stability
in foreign aliairs. The present tangle of international currencies vitiates our
estimates of comparative costs of production. It would be unwise therefore to
seek to construct the future of the industry from evidence derived from this
phase of our industrial experience.
The suggestion that our primary aim should be to increase the output of
fully manufactured goods calls for more serious consideration. The view is
based, obviously, on the argument that more employment may thereby be
provided for wool textile operatives in this country. This is an attractive
proposition and it is not difficult to summarise our position. In the first place
we have developed an excess of machinery for the making of tops and yams.
In the second place we have experienced a serious decline in output on the
worsted side of our manufacturing industry. The former fact would seem to
point to an advantage in the production of yams. The latter fact means either
a change in demand (from worsteds to wooUens), or more effective competition
in worsteds by other countries. To deal with this position two proposals have
been advanced(a) That we concentrate on the home market for fully manufactured goods; {b) that we seek to stimulate the export of fully manufactured
goods Both proposals reveal the paucity of our information about the actual
conditions in the trade and possibilities of its development. Both proposals
imply for example, that our machinery equipment is sufficient to convert into
fully manufactured goods the quantity of semi-manufactures, or an even greater
quantity than we now export, I have faUed to discover any evidence of this
fact If we pursue a poUcy of intensive cultivation of home demands what
evidence have we of the abiHt>^ of home consumers to take up the imphed extra
^''''lf''^e''Ls''ume s'^me increase of home demand, together with a sale of surplus
fabrics abroad, or alternatively, we assume a steady cultivation of foreign markets^
have we any satisfactory evidence of the capacity of those markets to take our
^"^In putting these questions my object is not to suggest that nothing can be
done to develop our trade. Rather do I wsh to suggest that immediate tendencies
of trade should be viewed with caution. We may derive encouragement lrom
expanding markets in the Far East and in U.S.A., but our optimism is at once
tempered by the reflection that in Japan, for example, there is a strong movement
Capt. S. E. J. Brady (Board of Trade) said that he noticed that in his very
interesting charts and throughout the paper Mr. Shimmin had taken 1913 to
compare \vith the present time. The ciiarts gave the exports. He would hke
to know on what basis Mr. Shimmin converted the yards of 1913 to the square
yards of to-day. Could Mr. Shimmin say whether the industry during the war
or since had expanded ? Insured workers numbered 176,000; how did that
compare with 1917 ?
- ,
The Lecturer, replying to the second question, said he had not exact figures,
for the simple reason that the insurance returns of the industry did not come in
until the Act of 1920. He wished he could have gons back further to get a comparable basis, but he could not do so. As to the conversion of yards into square
yards, he had accepted what he understood was the Board of Trade formula,
to add one-third in the case of worsted and one-quarter in the case of wools.
Mr. G. Wood (Bradford) said that with regard to the formula mentioned, it
was not correct in the case of woollens. There was a very simple way of making
the calculation. If you examined the classification you found that the trade
consisted of either narrows or broads. There was no 44 inch stuff coming in,
as in the case of worsteds. If you took the 1913 figures and took the narrows
at 27 inches, you could cast them in the terms of broads by dividing by 2. You
would thus get a closer approximation than by the formula of the Board of
Trade, because 1913 had not been quite a typical year. The Board of Trade's
formula was probably as accurate as might be if you took a five year average.
But 1913 happened not to be typical. There were changes going on in the trade
at that time, one part of the woollen trade recovering after the depression which
had followed on 1907, whilst another part of the trade was not recovering, with
the result that the distribution of the export trade in 1913 had not been normal.
P246
Proceedings
P248
Proceedings
as weU as of Carnegie
^
f^
was ^ u e of all clothing materials
mate
h d on iin th
car. Two things had been touched
the discussion which it was
to canvass^ne was the depreciation of currency and
^ ^
was the real effective basis of comparative prices of matenaU
^
served its purpose if it left the impression on the minds of those who tad heara
it that there was far too much which we did not know about the trade as a wnore