Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Declining Trend of Cotton Cultivation: Causes & The Way Forward
Declining Trend of Cotton Cultivation: Causes & The Way Forward
Cotton Cultivation:
Causes & the Way
Forward
KHALID ABDULLAH
Cotton Commissioner
November, 2016
Contents
Page #
Preamble.....................................................................................................3
1. Cultivation Trend of Competing Crops.....................................................4
2. Cotton and the Climate Change..............................................................7
2.1 Heavy Rains and Floods....................................................................7
2.2 Harsh Temperatures especially in Punjab.........................................8
3. World Scenario........................................................................................9
4. Other Factors.........................................................................................10
4.1 Sudden Flare-up of Pests & Disease.................................................10
4.2 Rapid Urbanization...........................................................................10
5. Conclusions:..........................................................................................11
6. Way Forward..........................................................................................11
Year
Punjab
Sindh
KPK
2.1
Balochist
an
37.8
Pakist
an
3103.0
200506
200607
200708
200809
200910
201011
201112
201213
201314
201415
201516
201617
2426.0
637.1
100.00
2462.9
570.1
0.2
41.6
3074.8
99.09
2424.8
607.4
0.2
21.9
3054.3
98.43
2223.7
561.5
0.2
34.6
2820.0
90.88
2435.8
634.7
0.04
35.1
3105.6
100.09
2200.6
457.0
0.2
31.3
2689.1
97.70
2533.7
259.2
0.2
41.4
2834.5
86.66
2308.7
530.1
0.2
39.8
2878.8
91.35
2199.0
568.0
0.3
38.4
2805.7
92.77
2323.0
596.2
1.0
41.2
2961.4
90.42
2243.0
621.0
1.0
38.0
2974.1
95.85
1776.0
636.0
1.0
38.0
2410.0
77.67
The data in the above table depicts that total area under cotton reduced by 22%
in Pakistan over the last ten years and this major reduction in cotton area is only
contributed by Punjab province which reduced its area under cotton be 26%
percent over the same period.
Following are some key factors which resulted in reduction of cotton cultivation in
the country especially in the Punjab province.
Years
Rice
200506
2006-0
1762.
4
1728.
4
1723.
5
1977.
7
1931.
5
1766.
8
1714.
2
1711.
4
1808.
9
1877.
7
1789.
0
1701.
0
200708
200809
200910
201011
201112
201213
201314
201415
201516
201617
Maize
100.0
540.8
100.0
S.Can
e
625.2
98.07
492.5
91.07
711.8
97.79
534.5
98.84
827.2
112.2
2
109.5
9
100.2
5
97.27
534.4
98.82
666.5
504.9
93.36
607.4
543.6
672.2
97.11
587.7
102.6
4
106.5
4
101.5
1
96.51
689.3
100.5
2
111.6
7
108.6
7
127.4
6
103.3
2
132.5
4
110.2
603.9
558.8
716.8
596.0
100.0
113.8
5
132.3
1
106.6
1
97.15
710.6
107.5
2
121.7
5
122.7
9
121.0
5
113.6
710.2
113.5
792.0
126.7
761.2
767.7
756.8
Cotto
n
2426.
0
2462.
9
2424.
8
2223.
7
2435.
8
2200.
6
2533.
7
2308.
7
2199.
0
2323.
0
2243.
0
1776.
0
100.0
101.5
2
99.95
91.66
100.4
0
90.71
104.4
4
95.16
90.64
95.75
92.46
73.21
Market Prices (Rs. Per 100 Kgs) of Kharif Crops in the Punjab
Crops
Cotton
(Phutti)
Rice (IRRI)
Maize
201213
6163
201314
6966
201415
7321
201516
5573
201617
6249
3677
2451
3793
2478
3665
2427
3194
2204
3488
2406
Year
Area (000
hectare)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
625.2
711.8
827.2
666.5
607.4
672.2
761.2
767.7
756.8
710.6
710.2
792.0
Sugarcane
Indicative
Price (Rs. Per
40 Kgs)
45.00
60.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
125.00
150.00
170.00
170.00
180.00
180.00
--
Sugar Price
(Rs. per Kg)
31.16
31.85
27.92
38.72
57.11
72.72
60.99
53.25
53.82
56.37
64.32
68.00
6
5
4
3
2
1
2
1
65.4165.3664.75
62.49
59.53
59.17
56.92
56.78
60.00
54.1253.9254.2354.28
Rs/ kg ($=105)
50.00 45.00
44.16
41.7941.7740.35
38.3238.5738.3536.9837.67 36.63
40.00
35.81
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
International
Local
2.1
The cotton crop has suffered badly due to heavy rains and floods in the country
since 2010-11. The year 2010-11 remained the worst year for cotton and other
crops which were severely damaged due to heavy rains and floods. Cotton crop
alone lost 2.4 million bales valuing Rs. 100 billion during the mentioned period.
Cotton production in the Punjab province was also severely damaged and
reduced by 30% due to heavy rains during the year 2015-16. The continuous and
heavy rains (100mm to 373mm) affected pollination, 128 mm for 28 days during
3rd week of July upto 3rd week of August 2015 as compared to only 13 mm during
same period last year. The continuous rainfall created partial waterlogged
condition, non-development of feeding roots, stunted plant growth due to less
development of roots, low uptake of nutrients, fruit shedding as well. Moreover,
heavy rains coupled with high humidity enabled flare-up of Whitefly and Jassid,
and other fungal diseases, problems in weeds management, spray and other
intercultural practices. The economical damage due to heavy rains and floods
over the past years is given in Table 2.
Year
Province
Punja
Sindh
b
2010
860,35
6
59,050
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
142,54
7
246,11
0
211,67
7
260,0
37
487,125
11,66,46
6
155,292
5-10%
Katcha
area
N.A.
85,270
Total
Area
damag
ed
(acres)
1,347,4
81
59,050
41,598
98,091
103,338
24,503
2,532
297,83
9
246,11
0
521,218
26,126
13,617
430,693
30,498
13,135
211,67
7
345,30
7
370,435
23992
8,887
604,287
23846
14,409
2.2
Optimum Temperature
2010
>
37.5C
temperature)
>
27.5C
temperature)
>
37.5C
temperature)
>
27.5C
temperature)
>
37.5C
temperature)
>
27.5C
temperature)
>
37.5C
temperature)
>
27.5C
temperature)
>
37.5C
temperature)
>
27.5C
temperature)
>
37.5C
temperature)
>
27.5C
temperature)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(day
Ma
r
5
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Oct
Se
p
0
19
28
21
12
(night
20
24
16
(day
28
23
(night
11
25
25
18
(day
25
23
21
(night
24
24
21
(day
26
22
20
(night
25
27
18
12
(day
15
27
10
(night
29
25
21
(day
22
12
(night
11
17
23
25
17
10
3. World Scenario
The international cotton prices also fluctuated greatly from US$ 3.56 per kg in
2010 to US$ 1.55 per kg in 2015. This trend puts significant effect on domestic
cotton prices as well as the cotton production size. The cotton area increased
when the farmers received higher prices in previous crop season. Moreover, the
increasing global demand for fibre consumption has resulted in enhancing
production of Man-Made Fibre (MMF). This has increased the share of MMF to 60
million tons (70%) whereas cotton production was 25 million tons (30%) during
2013-14. Moreover, the price of MMF is almost half to that of cotton prices across
the world. This trend suppresses the cotton prices which results in low returns for
farmers to their produce and ultimately reducing cotton area in different
countries.
201011
201112
201213
201314
201415
2015-
Cotlook Cotton
Price (A-Index)
(Cents/l
US$ /
b)
Kg
161.85
3.56
USA
(Cents/l
US$ /
b)
Kg
97.85
2.17
101.23
2.23
121.08
2.67
83.14
1.83
85.00
1.87
87.93
1.85
117.84
2.60
77.30
1.70
79.55
1.75
90.66
1.99
113.58
2.50
70.89
1.56
74.80
1.65
70.93
1.56
99.25
2.19
58.64
1.29
61.17
1.35
70.39
1.55
92.33
2.04
47.19
1.04
49.67
1.09
11
16
201617
77.90
1.71
--
--
46.95
1.03
--
--
4. Other Factors
4.1 Sudden Flare-up of Pests & Disease
With the advent of Bt cotton, the trend of cotton production practices changed so
did the pattern of cotton pests pattern. The Bt cotton gave escape against attack
of cotton bollworms and helped in increasing cotton production. But
simultaneously, the emergence of earlier minor pests and resurgence of new
pests i.e., cotton mealybug, dusky bug, red cotton bug and the appearance of
Pink bollworm and Whitefly have substantially damaged the cotton crop. These
pests, collectively contributed in lowering the cotton production over the years.
Moreover, cotton leaf curl virus (CLCuV) disease remained prevalent throughout
these years and continued damaging the cotton crop. The flare-up of insect pests
or diseases is indirectly related to climate change, that climatic conditions
become so favorable and becomes conducive to develop and multiply the pests
and diseases which cause lower yields.
4.2 Rapid Urbanization
With the rapid economic development and growth in industry, the population of
urban areas expanded sharply coupled with the influx of migrants from rural to
urban areas all over the country. This requires more land for housing the
explosive population of urban areas. The mushrooming of housing colonies has
been swallowing the fertile agricultural lands and converting into housing
colonies and other urban infrastructures. Urbanization is therefore, argued as a
potential threat for agricultural land. Apart from the direct loss of production
capacity, land has also impact on the present state of agriculture .It leads to the
additional burden on the present farming conditions, which may further worsen
the situation. The results indicates that both agriculture value added % of GDP
and agricultural value added annual % of growth had a negative relationship with
the urban population , it means that as the urbanization rises more and more
agricultural land is converted to non agricultural uses which lead to the reduction
of agricultural production.
5. Conclusions:
12
13