AP Statistics Hypothesis Testing Chapter 9 Name, Hr, Intro to ce Tests For the following pairs, indicate whether they are legitimate hypotheses and why. 1. Hy: GDA; He: > 0.4 NO 3. Ho: = 24; Hg: pm > 24 Yeo For each situation, state the null and alternate hypothesis. (Define your parameter.) 5. Researchers have postulated that, due to the math excitement in Mrs. Sapp’s classroom, her students have a higher mean systolic blood pressure than other students at MHS. Suppose that the mean systolic blood pressure in students at MHS is known to be 112. We: we VD Heatarne & moan bP cheese 6. A water quality control board reports that water is unsafe for drinking. Dates, Stasarto ‘mean nitrate ‘concentration exceeds 30 ppm. Water specimens are taken from a well. Yo. a= 30 bya 70 ane wer eee 7. 1n2010, the proportion of US students who graduated from eo rca eg in 4 years was 93%, Do this year’s data show a different proportion? wd Vo! p=.43 Ka pe 9 Soe gad Spon ts aS 8. Data show that the mean household income in Manhattan, KS is $37,000 per year". A ‘market research firm questions shoppers at Manhattan Town Center Mall. The researchers suspect that the mean household income of mall shoppers is higher than that of the general population. DAS lan Vos Ans 37000 Ha A TBtVOO ho iaoma 9. The diameter of a spindle in a small motor is supposed to be 5 mm. Ifthe spindle is too small or too large, the motor will not work properly. The manufacturer measures the distance in a sample of the motors to determine whether the mean diameter has moved away from the target. Be-usd AALS Mean diameer Pat w¥S * ttp://www.city-data.com/city/Manhattan-Kansas.htm!AP Statisties Hypothesis Testing Chapter 9 10, The Mentor reports that 81% of MHS students favor mathematics classes over science classes, You suspect that the true proportion is actually lower. Ho'p=.%1 Mas ps &) Puech wie Wet For each of the following P-values, determine whether you would “reject” or “fail to reject” the null hypothesis when a = 05, Il. p =.025 12.p= 42 13. p = .032 14. p =.055 Rejects Foal +o vejed Reh ecks Fatto vibes, 15. A recent study compared the crime rates between Chicago and Los Angeles. The null hypothesis is that the crime rates are the same, and the alternative is that Chicago has a higher crime rate. Identify each statement as representing a Type I or Type II error: © The rates are the same between Chicago and Los Angeles, but the researchers say that Chicago has a higher crime rate. Type © Chicago has a higher crime rate, but (fe'researchers say the rates of crime are the same Type Xe 16. When you set the level of significance (q) for a test, what are you controlling for? ‘Type L error B) Type Il error ) The critical value d) The p-value €) Overpopulation of sloths 17. When conducting a formal hypothesis test, there are different errors that may be made, depending on your decision. One decision is to reject the null hypothesis. If you falsely reject the null, what type of error have you made? © Type lerwor b) Type Il error ©) Critical error d) Standard error ©) “Not buying Mrs. Sapp enough chocolate” errorAP Statistics Hypothesis Testing Chapter 9 18. A researcher plans to conduct a significance test at the « = 0.01 significance level. She designs her study to have power of 0.90 at a particular alternative value of the parameter of interest. The probability that the researcher will make a Type II error for the particular alternative value of the parameter at which she computed the power is: Power = |- B 40 = \-B 19. Food inspectors for the USDA test samples of food products to see if they are safe. This can be thought of as a hypothesis test where Ho; the food is safe Hy: the food is not safe For you as a consumer, which type of error would be the worst for the food inspector to make, Type I ceType iE Food 15 wot Saye bik they Day it iS, 20. Josh and Duncan each want to test if the mean score on the ACT of students in Kansas 23, as claimed in the Kansas Times. Josh takes a random sample of 200 adults and uses @ = 01, Duncan takes a random sample of 200 adults and uses a = .05. Suppose that the newspaper's possontage is actually right. a)_Isit possible for Josh and Duncan to make a Type I error? If so, who is more likely to do so? Yer \Ouncam ble he hao higher A b) Is it possible for Josh and Duncan to make a Type Il error? If so, who is more likely t0 do so? . ho ble He is twee 21. Now suppose that the newspapers’ average was actually wrong, a) Isit possible for Josh and Duncan to make a Type I error? If so, who is more likely to do so? he, ble be is Andre, b) Is it possible for Josh and Duncan to make a ‘Type II error? If so, who is more likely to do so? sh ble Swmatder A Upr 5 Jor zB)AP Statisties Hypothesis Testing Chapter 9 22. A Hi-Def TV manufacturer claims that only 10% of its TVs will need service during the first three years. A consumer agency has heard complaints and doubts the manufacturer's claim. They obtain a random sample of 100 purchasers and ask each whether the TV purchased needed repair during the first three years after purchase. Let p be the sample proportion of responses indicating a repair was necessary. Let p indicate the true proportion of TVs by this manufacturer needing repair within the first three years. Obviously the agency does not want to claim false advertising unless the sample evidence strongly suggests that p > .1. The appropriate hypotheses are: Ho:p=1 Hap >A a) Inthe context of this problem, describe a Type I and Type II error, and discus the consequences of each. Type i ae pate nortan Miag done” ( Gob Comorny (n*roube 5 TE da, Hao. COnnpauny 1S Rg bik more We eye Clampary get w/ b) Would you recommend a test procedure that uses @ = .10 es 01? Explain, 23. In order to avoid making Type I errors, why not just always use very large critical values? (oe vsnuda Male +€0 many Type IL ewer. 24, Powermeasures: a) The probability the null hypothesis is true. b) The probability the null hypothesis is false. ©)-Sihe probability of seeing a result at least as far from Hp as the one observed, given that the null hypothesis is true, 4) The probability of seeing a result at least as far from j4p as the one observed, given that the null hypothesis is false.AP Statistics Hypothesis Testing Chapter 9 25. You manufacture and sell a liquid product whose electrical conductivity is supposed to be 5. You plan to make 6 measurements of the conductivity of each lot of product. If the product meets specifications, the mean of many measurements will be 5. You will therefore test: Hy: = 5 Hae #5 If the true conductivity is 5.1, the liquid is not suitable for its intended use. You learn that the power of your test at the 5% level against the alternative = 5.1 is 0.23. a) Explain what power = 0,23 means. OPiechany hy trey reedding the hut! b) You could get higher power against the same alternative with the same a by changing the number of measurements you make. Should you maké (more) wr less ‘measurements to increase power? 6) Ifyou decide to usa = 0.105n place will the power incregr® OF decrease? Explaii- = ab Troreae ble Posers|-& 4) Ifyou shift your interest to the alternative y= 5.2, with no other changes, will the power‘ncrease br decrease? Justify your answer. jth no other changes to the test, One Sample z-test for Means (¢ known) 26. Explain in plain language why a significance test that is significant at the 1% level (a = 01) must always be significant at the 5% level (# = .05). Ifa testis significant at if the 5% level, what can you say about its significance at the 1% level? Tz or Nom ‘ : DO be Hgvst} Ble Fa tok Pusu is 4.01 vat also he <.05.AP Stat Hypothesis Testing Chapter 9 27. To determine whether the mean nicotine content of a certain brand of cigarettes is greater than the advertised value of 1.4 mg, a health advisory group tests Ho: . = 1.4 versus Hg: > 14. The calculated value of the test statistic is z = 2.42. PNolun = 0048 a) Is the result significant at the 5% level? Why or why not? Yoo Prva < x b) Is the result significant at the 1% level? Why or why not? P-vadue der dy Woonr Tha. Yodiolen — Z=1.L4S qroudua=,04S tp Sweet ; aban , ae say that the level of active ingredient is different from 0.86%? 5) = © \ Cound. Sonapte Ho AL= .Ble= rene 6 Normal Ha bs tte TST ean “le ahve nydient T penn Sre-Sompee U-keak py oon Ud 3<1wN Ss -4.49 prvrduew O Sw Prvreder << nore 1S Sub. Cordon to Suggest, rok Lannie roan Plo ache a. is not BeAP Statistics pothesis Testing Chapter 9 30, A random sample of 25 values of monthly rent of two bedroom apartments was selected from a recent edition of the Manhattan Mereury. ‘The distribution of two bedroom apartments is approximately normal. The mean of the sample was $575, and you may assume that the population standard deviation was $165. of =. OS a) Are the assumptions met for conducting a hypothesis test? Yon b) A group of students thinks the true mean rent for this type of apartment is u = $600. Is there statistical evidence to reject their claim? Sp Q-sodsaa 7A jrove, 0S Weiuzyoo = Ze th \nSubgy cardanuto Pa? Aloo Prvate YT Ae Yonk (000. ©) A newspaper reporter reports that the average rent for two bedroom apartments last year was $500. Is there statistical evidence of a change in mean rent from last year to toe es 222.9% Swe priest, tore vf ae PrrodureOd Suifiverk evidanue to Ras AA #500 ype : “ta, d) Construct a 95% confidence interval for the true average vente wana BQO . bedroom apartments, Could you have made a decision in parts (b) and (c) using only the confidence interval? Explain, (S10, baod Yo, Sinw Spois wes wee kena ; Wwe Toe aor Wau 31. Suppose an advertising firm reported in 2013 that Chocoholics Chocolate Chip Cookies ‘were selling at a mean rate of $1323 per week with a known standard deviation (0) of $275. Suppose a random sample of 30 weeks in 2011 showed that the cookies were selling at the average rate of $1258. Does this indicate that the sales of the cookies are different from the earlier figure? o¢ > «OS Vat av 1323 DANS RAR roo DARArs roe, fan. Same Was a #1323 + i, One -Sonmpte 2 det Her Meno Tg: DIN o* N24 Pvdues AS Dina Qn 74 rove vy orbprenk |ardener +o Sugginbtvads Codie Sadun are oeilerendtAP Statisties Hypothesis Testing Chapter 9 32. Bottles of a popular cola are supposed to contain 300 mL of cola. There is some variation from bottle to bottle because the filling machinery is not perfect. (Suppose the process is normally distributed with 6 =3 mL.) An inspector who suspects that the bottler is under filling randomly measures the contents of six bottles. Is this convincing evidence that the mean content of cola botls is less than the advertised 300 mL?) = OSS 299.4 297.7 2989 300.2. 297-301 LanrdSom. Vg: ar 300 AAAS theo womn ral dy Oka ee Ze-4EF puedue-.2I1F SION Ske Peds TA Here IS Induly.Caiden do Suggeot Tok Mean Content 15 Lor tho, One Sample t-test for Means (o unknown) 200m. 33. An SRS of 100 postal employees found that the average time these employees had worked for the postal service was ¥ =7 years with standard deviation s = 2 years. ‘Assume the distribution of the time the population of employees have worked for the postal service is approximately normal with mean p. Are these data evidence that y has changed from the value of 7.5 years of 20 years ago? To determine this we test the hypotheses H, :#=7.5, H,:H#7.5, using the one-sample test. ‘The P-value for the one-sample f testis: A) anger than 0.10. B) _ between 0.10 and 0.05. “xpen = OW between 0.05 and 0.01. g D) below 0.01. ee a) Find and interpret a 95% confidence interval for the mean time j the population of postal service employees have spent with the postal service. (Assume assumptions are met.) (eet \uae are 4 S85 Cony. Hak Dane mon Drug Aasvited Sov potted Serre woes behson Gb and bYhys b) Can you make a conclusion based only on this confidence interval? Explain. Yeo AK Down De Gis mrinkhe CT.AP Statisties Hypothesis Testing Chapter 9 34, If good estimate of the population standard deviation is 3.0°C, then approximately what minimum sample size would you need in @ simple random sample if you wanted a 95% confidence interval for the mean to have a margin of error of 0.5°C or less? \9u/2\- “Aye yz 124 35, Researchers at Kansas State University conducted a study that included the collection of a large amount of data on the water temperature of streams in northeast Kansas. The study found that the mean temperature for a random sample of 178 streams that were under a closed canopy of vegetation was 16.02°C with a sample standard deviation of 2.83°C. a) Ifyou perform a hypothesis test for the mean stream temperature based on the ‘-distribution, then, in practice, what conditions must be satisfied? The sample must be random and the population must be approximately normal. ae ‘The sample must be random, but because the sample size is large (178), the population does not have to be approximately normal. IIL. The sample doesn’t need to be random and the population doesn’t have to be approximately normal because the sample size is so large (178). IV. The type of canopy must have been randomly assigned to the streams. V. The sample must be random and np=10 and n(1-p)210. 'b) Test the hypothesis thatthe true mean stream temperature under a closed canopy of vegetation is more than 15.5° using a 0.05 level of significance, (Include a full wrte- up: Name the test; (you have already checked conditions), provide null and altemative hypotheses, compute the tet statistic and P-value, and write a conclusion incontext) =~ Vo wale S Was ee iso sale Meld tenetony 4 Aree One Sarnpee rocked bpr Neon 4= ANS prrduas .bo¥ Sine QrvUadus 2.04 (o=%8) 39, We hear that newborn babies are more likely to be boys than girls. Is this true? A random sample of 25,468 firstborn children included 13,173 boys. Boys do make up ‘more than half of the sample, but of course we don’t expect a perfect 50-50 split in a random sample. ai) To what population can the results of the study be generaliz children? Justify your answer. |: all children or all firstborn b) Do these data give convincing evidence that boy's are more common than girls in the population? Catry out a significance test to help answer this question. (Use a = .05) Cana tps : te | RE pire ar “SLASH TI0 ee ‘ WAMU ZI Boltefor erogoroene Tra . 275: Eee, & . es Snw prriae <4 nore 1S Sukh -eoidenu 9 40. oitmiee random sample of 100 or OP NS ‘shoes and found that 23 of the orders were for shoe size 8. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of Dillard’s customers who wear size 8 shoes. (Assume the assumptions are met.) woe She (143,312) Ore 16% Com, Wor --. A report in USA today said that 29% of US women wear size 8 shoes. Does the data above indicate that the proportion of Dillard’s orders for size 8 shoes is different from the population of women wearing size 8 shoes in the general population? Explain. ko Sina 39 Is BLOW Qne weer.