Year-end rally checklist

The SPX hasnt moved since Jul and conviction levels seem minimal. However, a
scenario for a year-end rally exists and would involve:
1) the best-case (GOP Senate/House, Dem WH, Prop 61 fails) or maybe basecase (GOP House, Dem Senate/WH, Prop 61 passes) outcome on 11/8;
2) ECB doesnt taper (or at least doesnt make a decision on this subject until early
17);
3) Deutsche Bank settles w/the DOJ for ~EU4-5B or less;
4) The Italian referendum on 12/4 proves to be a non-event;
5) OPEC either acts on 11/30 or continues w/its effective Draghi-esque rhetorical
intervention strategy to keep oil prices afloat;
6) There is no budget nonsense in Washington (the current spending authorization is
due to expire on 12/9) and no one makes credibly threatening remarks about the
debt ceiling(which is due to be reinstated in Mar 17);
7) Merkel confirms plans to run for a 4thterm (an announcement could come around
late Nov according to press reports);
8) The 17 SPX EPS estimate doesnt fall below ~$120-125 (it was ~$130 a few
weeks ago but has since bled lower by a few dollars);
9) The Fed proceeds w/a hike on 12/14 and either leaves the dots unchanged or
shifts them lower (delaying a 12/14 hike would likely be precipitated by some
growth problem or macro event and thus wouldnt be positive).
Note that the same ceiling as before still exists (defined by higher yields limiting
multiple expansion and a 17 SPX EPS estimate that has been bleeding lower over
the last few weeks).