Terminology

Population: a collection of units or individuals

Parameter: a number associated with the population
Sample: a subset of the population
Estimate: a number computed from the sample, and used as a guess for
the parameter
How good the estimate is depends on how the sample was taken.
Try to avoid or reduce bias in the sample

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.3X

Lecture 1.1

1/1

Roosevelt versus Landon

1936 U.S. Presidential election, won by FDR
% for FDR
43

Literary Digest prediction

(sample size 10,000,000)

Gallup prediction of Digest prediction

(sample size 3,000)

44

Gallup prediction of election result

(sample size 50,000)

56

Election result

62

[Table adapted from Statistics, 4th edition, by Freedman, Pisani, and

Purves]
Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.3X

Lecture 1.1

2/1

Avoid these!

Selection bias: systematically leaving out a section of the population

Non-response bias: people not answering survey questions
Bigger isnt always better
If the method of sampling is bad, taking a large sample doesnt help. You
just get a big bad sample.

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.3X

Lecture 1.1

3/1

Random sample
Random sample or probability sample: Before the sample is drawn, it
has to be possible to calculate the probability with with each member of
the population will be included in the sample.
Note. This probability doent have to be the same for all members of the
population.
Example 1. I have a population of 4 people: A, B, C, and D. I decide to
sample by selecting A, and then for each of B through D, deciding by a
coin toss whether or not to include that person. Is this a random sample?
Answer. Yes.
P(A enters the sample) = 1
P(B enters the sample) = 0.5
P(C enters the sample) = 0.5
P(D enters the sample) = 0.5
Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.3X

Lecture 1.1

4/1

Types of samples
Sample of convenience: for example, the first 10 people that walk by
you on a streetcorner; not a random sample
Simple random sample: draws uniformly at random without
replacement from the population; random sample
Cluster sample: for example, take a simple random sample of classes at
a uinversity, then take all the students in those classes; random sample
Pay attention to the randomization
Formulas for one kind of random sample might not work for another kind.

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.3X

Lecture 1.1

5/1