The Absolute

Return Letter
January 2017

Hiccup of the year?

What the New Year brings to you will depend a great deal on what you
bring to the New Year.
Vern McLellan

The most outrageous predictions of 2017

Saxo Bank of Denmark (a bank I hold no grudges against, so dont assume I am on
a mission here) have in recent years been high on entertainment value when
publishing their now (in)famous list of Outrageous Predictions for the year to come,
some of which are highly controversial. The 2017 list, which you can find here,
contains the usual mix of more plausible predictions combined with some truly
outrageous ones. Amongst their 2017 predictions, I find the following particularly
thought-provoking:
1.

The high yield default rate exceeds 25%.

2.

Brexit never happens as the UK Bremains.

3.

Italian banks are the best performing equity asset.

I am not into making outrageous predictions myself but, if I were, and given the fact
that I have a rather wicked sense of humour, my outrageous prediction # 1 for 2017
would probably be for either David Cameron or Hilary Clinton to participate in the
2017 edition of BBCs flagship entertainment show Strictly Come Dancing. As Ed
Balls just learned, that particular show provides an excellent platform to resurrect a
fading political career (he probably got more votes for his dancing skills than he did
in the last parliamentary elections, but that is an altogether different story). Having
said that, only last month did I promise not to make fun of politicians anymore, so
lets drop the ball right there.
Even if 2017 is not likely to be particularly high on entertainment value, it could
certainly be high on drama, which makes this Absolute Return Letter particularly
challenging. As you may recall from previous years, the January letter is always
about the mine field laid out in front of us. What could cause 2017 to be a year to
remember? What could possibly go horribly wrong? At this point in time, I see many
potential problems. I have some concerns about the US. I see dark clouds gathering
over Europe, and I see very slippery conditions in many emerging markets (EM). In
other words, lots of markets around the world appear to be accident prone but for
very different reasons, which I shall get back to in a moment.

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January 2017

A flicker of good news

However, before I go there, let me share with you a glimmer of hope; a twinkle of
optimism that you dont find too often in the Absolute Return Letter. Not that I am
a born pessimist actually far from it. I just learned many moons ago that, when it
comes to investing, good news is the last thing you should spend your energy and
resources on. The secret to being a good investor is to focus on risk management
and to be well prepared for bad news.
Long term readers of the Absolute Return Letter will know that I have always been
of the opinion that we have never properly exited the global financial crisis (the
GFC) of 2007-08. One of the conditions I have used to make my point is the high
correlation between risk assets, and how life as an investment manager has become
complicated as a result of that.
Prior to the GFC, you could fairly safely assume that diversification across a number
of risk assets would dramatically reduce the overall volatility risk, but not anymore.
The GFC changed how risk assets correlate with each other (chart 1), and when the
correlation between risk assets approaches one, diversification does little to reduce
the overall volatility risk.
Chart 1: Correlation among major asset classes pre- & post-GFC

Source: Business Insider, IMF, April 2015

Now the good news - it looks as if the correlation between risk assets or at least
between different types of equity risk is finally coming down (chart 2). As you can
see, the correlation between the S&P 500 and the average equity sector has fallen
quite dramatically over the last six months. This is not the only dynamic that needs
to change for me to become more optimistic, but it is an important one. Expect me
to dig deeper on this topic at some point in 2017.
Chart 2: Average correlation of weekly returns between S&P 500 and S&P sectors

Source: The Daily Shot, BNP Paribas, December 2016

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January 2017

Growing nationalism
As we enter 2017, what should we worry most about? One factor appears to be
standing out head and shoulders above everything else, and that is what is usually
classified as growing nationalism. It forced the UK out of the EU, and it got Trump
elected in the US, but I am not even convinced that the true driver is just growing
nationalism.
As you may recall, national income is ultimately shared between capital and labour,
and I think capital has belittled labour for too long by taking an ever larger share of
national income. Frustrated by the stagnation in living standards, the man on the
street wants something to change. The decision to vote for Brexit (or Trump) was a
plea for change, as much as it was a sign of growing nationalism. When your own
living standards are under pressure, the last thing you want is an army of
immigrants to come in and put you under even more pressure.
Stagnating economic growth and low or even negative real wage growth has
created a deep level of dissatisfaction that the electorate chose to use politically,
and the Brexiters (and Trump) took advantage in spades.
For the first time in 150 years, the average Brit is now facing falling real wages (chart
3). That the low or negative growth in wages is driven by entirely different factors
and have nothing whatsoever to do with Brussels is being conveniently ignored.
Chart 3: UK real wage growth

Source:

Bloomberg, Bank of England, The Daily Shot, December 2016

Note:

The chart shows 10-year moving average of real wages based on weekly pay and the CPI.
Data from 2016 onwards is based on BoE projections.

Meanwhile, the political leadership in the UK is facing a very tricky year, with the
real opposition to the ruling Conservative Party coming not from the Labour Party
but from inside its own ranks. The Brexiters want Theresa May to act now, even if
all logic would suggest that the country may be better off counting to 10 before any
moves are made.
As 2017 progresses, we face important elections in the Netherlands, Germany and
France. The Dutch will kick it all off on the 15th March with the extreme right-wing
leader of the Freedom Party, Geert Wilders, currently in pole position. On the 23rd
April, the French will be asked to choose their next president. If no outright winner
is found in the first round, a run-off between the top two will be held on the 7th May.
German general elections will follow in the autumn. The date hasnt been set yet,
but German law prescribes the 2017 elections to take place in either September or
October.
Radical forces in all three countries are on the roll and, given what happened in the
UK and the US last year, and what happened in Berlin just before Christmas, nothing
should be taken for granted.
As far as nationalism is concerned, we are also about to learn whether Trump walks
like he talks, and we are saddled with a certain Mr. Putin in Russia, who clearly knows

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January 2017

how to take advantage of rising nationalistic sentiment. All in all, 2017 could shape
up to be a most interesting year.
The (over)valuation of US equities
That said, growing nationalism and the implications of negative real wage growth
are by no means the only things we should worry about as we enter 2017. In the
US, equities are very expensive irrespective of how they are valued (charts 4 a-b).
Investors have ignored fundamentals in recent years and instead focused on the
liquidity provided by the Fed through QE and other means of monetary policy.
Chart 4a: S&P 500 price/EBITDA (trailing)

Chart 4b: S&P 500 price/sales (trailing)

Source: Bloomberg, The Daily Shot, December 2016

This has created equity valuations in the US that almost certainly will come back
and bite investors in the derriere at some point. The only question is whether it is
going to happen this year or ?
Take chart 4a (price/EBITDA). When acquisitions are made, most companies are
acquired at valuations well below 10x EBITDA. If the average company in the S&P
500 now trades at 11x EBITDA, interesting M&A deals are likely to be few and far
between. Companies on the acquisition trail simply cannot justify to pay 12x, 13x
or even 14x EBITDA for their acquisition target, removing an important pillar for
higher equity prices.

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January 2017

Chart 4a also confirms a point I have made in previous Absolute Return Letters, i.e.
that US equities are very expensive on a cash earnings (EBITDA) basis. Many US
companies mislead investors by reporting solid EPS numbers (by buying back their
own shares), but chart 4a tells a very different story.
Europes colourful menu of challenges
Lets return to Europe for a minute or two, as there is an entire menu of potential
problems to choose from. The constitutional crisis in the EU could worsen
dramatically if either the Netherlands, France or Germany were to choose the
wrong leader later this year. Putin, who is clearly on a roll at present, could quite
possibly upset the cards even further in particular if the new leadership is relatively
inexperienced.
In Italy, the banking crisis is an accident waiting to happen. Most Italian banks are
seriously undercapitalised and will need many billions of euros of new equity capital
(see the story here). However, under European law, equity investors must take the
first hit before the government steps in, but how that will all unfold in Italy, only
time can tell.
Given the size of the Italian economy compared to the Greek one, you shouldnt be
overly surprised if the Italian banking crisis were to create bigger problems for the
Eurozone than Greece ever did. My alter ego (the more sinister side) would even
assign a meaningful probability to the entire euro currency system collapsing, with
the member countries forced to re-introduce their original currencies. This would
require for the Italian banking crisis to escalate further, and for either the
Netherlands, France or Germany to exit the Eurozone. It is certainly not my core
scenario, but it is not as far-fetched as some investors believe it is.
Brexit could also cause considerable damage to the European economy in 2017.
Cocky British newspaper editors have left people with the impression that Brexit
means nothing; it was all a storm in a teacup, they say1, conveniently ignoring the
fact that the ramifications of Brexit are yet to be felt. A hard Brexit will certainly be
bad for the British economy, but little will change until people begin to lose their
jobs.
That said, a hard Brexit is likely to be even worse for the rest of the EU than it will
be for the UK (as the EU is a net exporter of goods and services to the UK). I am not
entirely convinced, though, that the full impact will be felt in 2017. These
negotiations could take a long time certainly longer than the couple of years that
appears to be the consensus.
Rising leverage across emerging markets
My next worry is the rising indebtedness across emerging markets combined with
weak EM currencies. Overall debt levels, in developed market (DM) countries as
well as in EM countries, are much higher today than they were when the GFC nearly
took us all down in 2007-08 (chart 5). Although I am also worried about debt levels
in DM countries, I think the risks associated with excessive debt are higher in EM
countries than they are in DM countries, and that has to do with the implications of
FX movements.
EM non-financial corporates have continued to accumulate debt as if there is no
tomorrow (chart 6). As DM interest rates continued to fall, those corporates
increasingly switched to borrowing in US dollars. Given the recent strength of the
US dollar - in particular when measured against EM currencies - that decision has
been a spectacular own goal. What appeared to be very cheap borrowing costs
1

What Brexit jitters? See this story.

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January 2017

turned out to be anything but. USD 890 billion of EM bonds and syndicated loans
(an all-time high) are coming due in 2017 with almost 30% of that denominated in
US dollars2.
Chart 5: Change in debt-to-GDP, 2007-14

Source: McKinsey & Co, February 2015.

Debt-to-GDP 2Q14, %

Chart 6: Indebtedness in emerging markets by sector (% of GDP)

Source: Institute of International Finance, March 2016.

Source: Institute of International Finance

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January 2017

Weakening EM currencies vs. USD has been akin to a significant rise in interest rates
for EM borrowers, and the possibility of a high profile accident or two should not be
disregarded. I am not close enough to the EM corporate sector to tell you exactly
how bad it is, but I am told it is pretty bad out there.
The high price of low interest rates
I have written extensively already about the consequences of very low interest
rates for insurance companies, pension funds, local authorities, and therefore
ultimately governments and shall not repeat myself. Suffice to say that, should
rates stay this low, it is only a question of time before somebody noteworthy blows
up right in front of us.
So far, all these very exposed entities have been able to extend and pretend, but it
wont last. As long-term readers of the Absolute Return Letter will know, I expect
interest rates to stay low for a very long time to come particularly in Europe. It is
possible that US interest rates will go through a cyclical upswing over the next year
or two, but the longer term (structural) trend is still down unless our political
leaders take drastic action (see what could be done in the December Absolute
Return Letter here).
Consequently, somebody will almost certainly default. It is only a question of who
and when. Obviously there are the explicit defaults, and there are the implicit ones.
Increasing the retirement age meaningfully, and implementing a mandatory
conversion from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans with a built-in
haircut would translate into an implicit default, but before the unions bark too
loudly, theyd better realise what the alternative is.
Local authorities in the US are at the very front of the bankruptcy queue. Take the
state of Illinois with over $200 billion of pension liabilities, much of which is
unfunded. I am not saying that the state of Illinois will go bankrupt. If I went through
the books of every single US state, I am sure I could find a few that are in an even
worse condition. That said, the 1% rise in municipal bond yields since July (chart 7)
could turn out to be not the buying opportunity that many argue it is, but still a
great shorting opportunity despite the recent rise in yields, should the situation be
as bad as I suspect it is.
Chart 7: S&P Illinois municipal bond index yield

Source: The Daily Shot, December 2016

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January 2017

Other possible hiccups

I think I will stop here. I could list quite a few other candidates for hiccup of the year
2017, but those that I have mentioned above are the ones I believe are most likely
to do meaningful damage in the year to come, should they unfold.
I havent mentioned the fact that the current economic cycle is getting very long in
the tooth. The last recession ended in early 2009 and the next one will undoubtedly
commence not too long from now. Could it possibly happen in 2017? I dont know,
and I dont think anybody else does either, despite the fact that about million
commentators claim they do.
GDP growth projections for 2017 follow an almost perfect normal distribution,
suggesting to me that few economists have a very clear idea what sort of conditions
2017 is likely to bring (chart 8). If I were a betting man I would bet against a
recession in 2017, though, as almost everyone does in chart 8. There seems to be a
great deal of momentum in both the US and the EU economy at present, and I see
nothing to change that in the short term.
Chart 8: Economist projections for 2017 US GDP growth

Source: The Daily Shot, Financial Times, Bloomberg, January 2017

However, the Fed could quite possibly ignite the next recession, should it be
necessary to tighten more in 2017 than they have already indicated. Based solely
on US domestic data, they should probably have tightened a great deal more than
they actually did in 2016, but weak data elsewhere kept them sitting on their hands
most likely because they didnt want the US dollar to appreciate too much. That
could potentially force them to tighten more than they would like in 2017. An
increasingly capacity-constrained US economy could lead to rising inflationary
pressures, but that is more likely to be an issue for 2018 than for 2017, I suspect.
Neither have I mentioned China at all, but China could certainly blow up. After all,
the credit bubble appears to be bigger in China than anywhere else. How that will
all pan out I dont know, but I have learned over the years that normal rules do not
apply in China. Despite what the rulers want us all to believe, it is most definitely
not a proper market economy; hence applying normal logic doesnt work as far as
China is concerned. Investing in China is about knowing the right people and little
else. In our part of the world you would most likely go to jail if you applied that
investment technique, but not in China at least not so far.

The Absolute Return Letter

January 2017

Summing it all up
The combination of Brexit and Trump has generated significant momentum for
nationalistic forces worldwide, and one would be foolish to conclude that the worst
is over. I certainly expect at least one of the forthcoming elections in Europe to
deliver an outcome that will create further problems for project EU, but dont
assume that I am bearish on the euro for that reason.
Yes, low economic growth across the EU will almost certainly lead to further USD
appreciation vs. EUR, but a complete collapse of the euro currency system - or at
least a reconfiguration (the latter of which I think is the more likely outcome) - will
not necessarily cause the euro to weaken. It will all depend on how the crisis is
handled.
The timing of the forthcoming weakening of US equities (which I consider a given)
will to a substantial degree depend on when the US economy goes into reverse and,
as I said earlier, that is more likely to materialise in 2018, but it could certainly
happen as early as 2017.
Some sort of emerging market crisis driven by a combination of high USDdenominated debt and weak EM currencies is my prime candidate for hiccup of the
year, but it is not entirely clear what the implications will be for developed markets
sort of depends on where it happens and to what degree DM banks are implicated.
Generally speaking, though, DM banks are only modestly involved in emerging
markets these days; hence an EM crisis doesnt necessarily imply that we all get
sucked in.
What to do in practice
You would be forgiven for thinking that, from an investment point-of-view, the not
insignificant risks laid out in front of us makes it virtually impossible to construct a
portfolio that is likely to generate an attractive return in 2017, but nothing could be
further from the truth.
Firstly, remember what I said earlier. I usually focus on the negative aspects when
investing; hence my writing also has a negative bias. That is not the same as saying
that I am always bearish, and I am most definitely not particularly bearish going into
2017.
Secondly, given the risk factors mentioned above, I would emphasise alpha risk over
beta risk at this (late) point in the economic cycle. There are indeed many ways that
can be accomplished, and that is precisely what next months Absolute Return
Letter will be about. This months letter is already too long, so all I will do for now is
to wish you a very successful 2017.
Niels C. Jensen
3 January 2017

Absolute Return Partners LLP 2017. Registered in England No. OC303480. Authorised and Regulated by the
Financial Conduct Authority. Registered Office: 16 Water Lane, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 1TJ, UK.

The Absolute Return Letter

January 2017

10

Important Notice
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Absolute Return Letter contributors:

Niels C. Jensen

nj@arpinvestments.com

Tel +44 20 8939 2901

Mark Moloney

mm@arpinvestments.com

Tel +44 20 8939 2902

Nick Rees

nr@arpinvestments.com

Tel +44 20 8939 2903

Tom Duggan

td@arpinvestments.com

Tel +44 20 8939 2909

Alison Major Lpine

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Tel: +44 20 8939 2910