calculation of earthquake occurrence probabilities for a large region

Magnitude range, M
Mean
count per
lower
upper
magnitude M range
2.5
2.9
2.7
9471
3
3.4
3.2
2784
3.5
3.9
3.7
912
4
4.4
4.2
285
4.5
4.9
4.7
90
5
5.4
5.2
32
5.5
5.9
5.7
10
6
6.4
6.2
3
6.5
6.9
6.7
2
7
7.4
7.2
1

Cummulative
count per
occurance
year
13590
1359
4119
411.9
1335
133.5
423
42.3
138
13.8
48
4.8
16
1.6
6
0.6
3
0.3
1
0.1

log()
3.13
2.61
2.13
1.63
1.14
0.68
0.20
-0.22
-0.52
-1.00

Gutenberg-Richter Parameter
b=
0.96
a=
5.51
Mmin=

For m=
For m=
For m=

6
5
4.8

CDF
0.99
0.89
0.83

Probability
P(m>6)=
P(m>5)=
P(4.8<m<5)=

0.01
0.11
0.06

probability for occurrence of at least one magnitude greater or equal to 6 in the next 50 ye
m=
6
=
0.6
t

P
50
10

1.00
0.998

Cumulated Recurrence curve

10000
Magnitude
1000

100

log10()

6 in the next 50 years, then in the next 10 years

10

0.1

Magnitude

currence curve
Magnitude range, M

nitude

standard deviation constant for all magnitude and distances is given by

lnAp=a+bML+cln(R+25)
where, Ap is in cm/s2
a=
6.74
Calculation
b=
0.859 Magnitude Distance
c=
-1.8 ML
R
=
0.57
6
6
6

5
10
30

2. probability for a magnitude 6 to produce an exceedence of 0.5 g at 5 , 10 and 30 km?

lnA*-lnA(mean)/

0.74

From table,

0.7704

P(PGA>0.5|6.0,5km)

0.2296

Calculation for hazard curve

rate of M6 EQ annually

0.02

Target acceleration, X(g) lnA*-lnA(mean)/

0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1

From
table,
P(PGA>X(g)|6,10km)
0.33
0.6293
0.3707
0.84
0.7995
0.2005
1.23 0.89065
0.10935
1.55 0.93943
0.06057
1.82 0.96562
0.03438
2.05 0.97982
0.02018
2.26 0.98809
0.01191
2.44 0.99266
0.00734

a=

b=
6.74
6.74
6.74

c=
0.859
0.859
0.859

=
-1.8
-1.8
-1.8

lnAp
0.57
0.57
0.57

1000.00

Ap
upper bound
cm/s2
lnAp+
exponentia
5.77
321.13
6.34 567.8429
5.49
243.32
6.06 430.253
4.68
107.86
5.25 190.7188

100.00

Accleration in cm/s2

d 30 km?

10.00

1.00

Hazard Curve
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
probability

0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Acceleration, in terms of g

0.9

1.1

1000.00

lower bound
lnAp-
exponential
5.20 181.6069
4.92 137.6031
100.0060.99551
4.11

PGA

PGA
upper bound

Accleration in cm/s2

lower bound

10.00

1.00

0.9

1.1

10

Distance, R in km

100

per bound

er bound

00